Lennox International Inc. (LII) Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Lennox International Inc.  (NYSE: LII) Q4 2021 earnings call dated Feb. 01, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Steve Harrison — Vice President of Investor Relations

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Joseph W. Reitmeier — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analysts:

Nicole DeBlase — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Julian Mitchell — Barclays — Analyst

Jeff Hammond — KeyBanc Capital Markets — Analyst

Ryan Merkel — William Blair — Analyst

Tommy Moll — Stephens — Analyst

Gautam Khanna — Cowen and Company — Analyst

Nigel Coe — Wolfe Research — Analyst

Jeff Sprague — Vertical Research Partners — Analyst

Joe Ritchie — Goldman Sachs — Analyst

Brandi Cooper — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Lennox International Fourth Quarter Conference Call. At the request of your host, all lines are currently in a listen-only mode. There will be a question-and-answer session at the end of the presentation. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this call is being recorded.

I will now turn the conference over to Steve Harrison, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Steve Harrison — Vice President of Investor Relations

Good morning, everyone. Thank you for joining us for this review of Lennox International’s financial performance for the fourth quarter and full year 2021. I’m here today with Chairman and CEO, Todd Bluedorn and CFO, Joe Reitmeier. Todd will review key points for the quarter and Joe will take you through the company’s financial performance for the quarter and the year, as well as the outlook for 2022. To give everyone time to ask questions during the Q&A, please limit yourself to a couple of questions or follow ups and re-queue for any additional questions.

In the earnings release, we issued this morning, we have included the necessary reconciliation of the non-GAAP financial measures that will be discussed to GAAP measures. All comparisons mentioned today are against the prior year period. You can find a direct link to the webcast of today’s conference call on our website at www.lennoxinternational.com. The webcast will be archived on the site for replay. I’d like to remind everyone that in the course of this call, to give you a better understanding of our operations, we will be making certain forward-looking statements.

These statements are subject to numerous risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from such statements. For information concerning these risks and uncertainties, see Lennox International’s publicly available filings with the SEC. The company disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise.

Now, let me turn the call over to Chairman and CEO, Todd Bluedorn.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Steve. Good morning everyone and thanks for joining us. Let me start with the financial highlights for 2021 overall and then walk through the fourth quarter as the company closed out a year of record revenue and earnings per share. Overall for 2021, revenue was 15% to a record $4.2 billion. At constant currency, revenue was up 14%. GAAP operating income rose 23% to $590 million, GAAP EPS from continuing operations rose 34% to a record $12.39. Total segment profit for the full year rose 19% to $604 million and the total segment margin expanded 50 basis points to 14.4%. Adjusted EPS from continuing operations rose to 27% to a record $12.60.

Turning to the fourth quarter, financial results were impacted by 6% fewer days than the prior year quarter, as well as continued impact from COVID-19 and supply chain disruptions that significantly impacted performance. As a benefit to the quarter tax timing and one-time tax benefits lowered the effective tax rate to 7% on a GAAP basis and 8% on an adjusted basis. That brought the effective tax rate for the full year to 17% on a GAAP basis and 18% on an adjusted basis. Company revenue in the quarter was up 6% to a fourth quarter record $965 million. GAAP operating income was $98 million compared to $139 million in the prior year quarter. GAAP EPS from continuing operations was $2.27 compared to $2.91 in the prior year quarter.

Total segment profit for the fourth quarter was $102 million compared to $139 million in the prior year quarter and total segment margin was 10.6% compared to 15.2% in the fourth quarter a year ago. Adjusted EPS from operations was $2.35 compared to $2.89 in the prior year quarter. Looking at our business segments for the fourth quarter. In residential, revenue was up 12% to a fourth quarter record $620 million. And again I’ll underline that 6% fewer days. Both replacement and new construction business were up double digits. Residential segment profit was down 5% and segment margin was down 310 basis points to 17.8% from the prior year quarter.

In commercial, the business continue to be hit the hardest by COVID-19 and global supply chain disruptions in fourth quarter. Revenue was down 11%, segment profit was down 64% and segment margin was down a 1170 basis points to 7.7%. Commercial equipment revenue was down mid-teens in the quarter. Within this, replacement revenue was down mid-teens with planned emergency — excuse me planned replacement down low-single digits and emergency replacement down more than 40%. New construction revenue was down high teens in the quarter.

Breaking out revenue another way, regional and local business revenue was down mid-teens, national equipment revenue was down high teens. On the service side, Lennox National Account Service revenue was up low-single digits, again on 6% fewer days. While the commercial business continue to work through significant disruptions and constraints in the fourth quarter, looking ahead, we expect revenue to resume year-over-year growth in the first quarter and profitability to be up by mid-2022 and for the full year.

In Refrigeration, for the fourth quarter, revenue was up 6% as reported and up 8% at constant currency, North America revenue was up more than 20%. Europe Refrigeration revenue was down low-single digits as reported and up low-single digits at constant currency. And Europe HVAC revenue was down mid-teens as reported and down low-double digits at constant currency. Refrigeration segment profit rose 50% and segment margin expanded 190 basis points to 8.9%.

For the company overall, in 2022, we are reiterating guidance for revenue growth of 5% to 10%. We are raising guidance for GAAP and adjusted EPS from continuing operations from a range of $13.40 to $14.40 to a new range of $13.50 to $14.50 for the full year. This reflects the net benefit of lower effective tax rate of 18% to 20% and higher interest rate expense assumptions. We are reiterating plans for $400 million of stock repurchases in 2022. HVAC and Refrigeration market demand remains high and as COVID-19 and the global supply chain improved, Lennox International is positioned to further capitalize on the growth opportunities and higher profitability.

Now, I’ll turn it over to Joe.

Joseph W. Reitmeier — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Todd and good morning everyone. I’ll provide some additional comments and financial details on the business segments for the fourth quarter in the year overall, starting with residential heating and cooling. In the fourth quarter, revenue from residential heating and cooling was a fourth quarter record $620 million, up 12%; volume was up 3%, price was up 8% and mix was up 1%. Foreign exchange was neutral to revenue. Residential profit was $110 million, down 5%.

Segment margin was 17.8%, down 310 basis points. Segment profit was primarily impacted by 6% fewer days than the prior year quarter, the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply chain disruptions, higher material, freight and other product costs and higher SG&A. Positive impacts included higher volume, favorable price, mix, foreign exchange and warranty and distribution efficiency programs. For the full year, residential segment revenue was a record $2.78 billion, up 18%. Volume was up 13%, price was up 4% and mix was flat with foreign exchange being a 1% favorable benefit to revenue. Residential profit was a record $540 million, up 26%. Segment margin was 19.5%, up 140 basis points.

Now turning to our commercial heating and cooling business. In the fourth quarter, commercial revenue was $201 million, down 11%; volume was down 21%, price was up 2% and mix was up 8%. Foreign exchange was neutral to revenue. Commercial segment profit was $16 million, down 64%. Segment margin was 7.7%, down 1170 basis points. Segment profit was primarily impacted by 6% fewer days than the prior year quarter, the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply chain disruptions, lower volume, higher material, warranty, tariff, freight and other product costs and higher SG&A. Partial offsets included favorable price and mix.

For the full year, commercial revenue was $865 million, up 8%. Volume was up 3%, price was up 1% and mix was up 3%. Foreign exchange was a 1% favorable benefit to revenue. Segment profit was $111 million, down 19% and segment margin was 12, 8%, down 430 basis points. In Refrigeration revenue was a fourth quarter record $143 million, up 6%; volume was up 4%, price was up 1% and mix was down 1%. Foreign exchange had a favorable 2% impact on revenue. Refrigeration segment profit was $13 million in the fourth quarter, which was up 29%. Segment margin was 9.2%, up 170 basis points. Segment profit was positively impacted by higher volume, favorable price and mix and lower SG&A. Partial offsets included 6% fewer days in the prior year quarter, the COVID-19 pandemic, global supply chain disruptions and higher material, freight and other product costs.

For the full year, Refrigeration revenue was $554 million, up 17%; volume was up 13%, price was up 3% and mix was flat. Foreign exchange had a favorable 1% impact. Segment profit was $49 million, up 50% and segment profit margin was 8.9%, up 190 basis points. Regarding special items, the company had net after-tax charges of $3.2 million for the fourth quarter and $7.4 million for the full year. Corporate expenses were $37 million in the fourth quarter and $96 million for the full year. Overall SG&A was $152 million in the fourth quarter or 15.7% of revenue, the same as the prior year quarter. For 2021, overall SG&A was $599 million or 14.3% of revenue, down from 15.3% in the prior year.

Our 2021 income tax rate declined year-over-year, attributable to geographic mix, year end adjustments of taxes on export sales and finalization and settlement of our prior-year tax obligations. For 2021, the company had cash from operations of $516 million, compared to $612 million in the prior year as working capital increased, primarily due to sales growth, increasing accounts receivable and inventory increasing due to mitigation strategies to combat supply chain disruptions along with inflationary effects year-over-year on product costs.

Capital expenditures were $106 million for the full year, compared to $77 million in the prior year. Free cash flow was $410 million for the year, compared to $35 million in the prior year. In 2021, the company paid approximately $127 million in dividends and repurchased $600 million of company stock. Total debt was $1.24 billion at the end of the fourth quarter and we ended the year with a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of 1.8. Cash and cash equivalents were $31 million at the end of the year.

Now before I turn it over to Q&A, I’ll review our outlook for 2022. Our underlying market assumptions for the year remain the same. We expect the industry to see low single-digit shipment growth in residential and mid single-digit shipment growth in commercial unitary and refrigeration markets in North America.

Our guidance for 2022 revenue growth remains 5% to 10% with neutral foreign exchange impact and we are raising our guidance for GAAP and adjusted EPS from continuing operations from a range of $13.40 to $14.40 to a new range of $13.50 to $14.50. This reflects the net of a lower expected effective tax rate of 18% to 20% compared to our prior guidance of approximately 20%, as well as higher interest and other expense of approximately $40 million compared to prior guidance of $35 million.

Now, let me run you through some of the other key assumptions in our guidance and the puts and takes for 2022, all of which are unchanged. Pricing is expected to be a benefit of $235 million for the year, which is about a 5% yield. Factory productivity and production from our third Mexico plant is expected to be a $20 million benefit. We are guiding for residential mix to be neutral, tariffs are also expected to be neutral and we assume neutral foreign exchange impact.

For the headwinds of in 2022, we still expect a $110 million headwind from commodities, a headwind of $60 million from components, half offset by $30 million of cost take-outs for a net $30 million headwind. Freight is still expected to be a $5 million headwind. We will be at a more normal run rate with distribution investments this year with 30 new Lennox stores planned. SG&A is expected to be up $45 million this year, including our investments in research and development and information technology.

A few other points. Corporate expenses are still targeted at $95 million and we are planning capital expenditures to be approximately $125 million this year. Free cash flow is targeted at $400 million. And finally, we expect the weighted average diluted share count for the full year to be between 36 to 37 million shares, which incorporates our plans to repurchase $400 million of stock this year.

And with that let’s go to Q&A.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

[Operator Instructions] And first go to line of Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Nicole DeBlase — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Yeah, thanks, good morning.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, Nicole.

Nicole DeBlase — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

I guess maybe we could start with looking across 2022. It seems like it might be a bit of an unusual year. Any update on your thoughts on the quarterly cadence of earnings. And maybe just like categorize that relative to the normal seasonality you would see in your business?

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

The way we planned right now and way we expect it to be is — well, the last couple of years have been abnormal while last two or three go all the way back to tornado. I think if you go back past pre-COVID, pre-tornado, I think it’s more of a normal cadence. So sort of our best guess is that’s how it’s going to lay out sort of normal to prior years.

Nicole DeBlase — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Okay, got it. Thanks, Todd. And I guess from a commodity perspective, saw that you guys maintained exactly what you said at the Analyst Day last month, commodity costs have continued to tail off a little bit. Is that a potential source of upside if that trend continues or is the advanced purchases hedging you guys do — does that make that difficult for 2022?

Joseph W. Reitmeier — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

No, if commodities go down, especially steel, which is our largest and we don’t hedge it, it will certainly be a benefit. I mean, we’re not changing that because it sort of goes one way or another. And we take guesses on what the balance of the year as based on what futures are predicted to be. Our short answer is if commodities goes down that’s good news.

Nicole DeBlase — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Got it, thanks. I’ll pass it on.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

And next we’ll go to Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Julian Mitchell — Barclays — Analyst

Thanks very much. Good morning. Maybe, Todd, just starting out with your sort of views around volume growth in Residential over the year. Any commentary on how the year has started out for your resi volumes and any kind of major cadence as we go through the year I think relative to your kind of low to mid single-digit volume growth that resi does in the guide?

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

It’s — the short answer is we’re starting out strong, I mean, we’ve got lots of “orders and backlog” and all of that stuff in this business. But given supply constraints, we have sort of lots of people telling us they need things. So, the orders remain strong, but as you well know, it’s tough to predict much from January. I think the short answer is consumer seem strong, still buying. We get a warm summer. I think it’s going to be another record year.

Julian Mitchell — Barclays — Analyst

Thanks very much. And then in commercial, maybe a couple of things, one is just any final points on the confidence on that profit expansion by mid-year other than sort of easy comps on profitability? And then how do you see that kind of backlog in commercial playing out? I think in a lot of industrial facing and commercial businesses, backlogs may be peaking right now and then start to bleed down a bit. Do you see that is likely to happen this year?

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

I don’t think so. Again, I get the years confused, but in 2020, the industry was down 20%. And so it’s sort of HVAC discretionary spending went way down, it’s come back part way this year and I expect it to continue to grow in 2022 and we certainly have record backlog again driven by supply constraints, production constraints, but everything we can see, it still feels very strong and [Technical Issues] talk to our large national accounts. Obviously, commercial had a tough fourth quarter and tough year on the margins.

There’s couple of reasons for that, one is we have one factory, it’s at Stuttgart, Arkansas, been very hard hit by COVID. There were days in fourth quarter, where over 25% or the quarter of the hourly workers didn’t come in because of COVID. Either they had it or they were close contacts. Similar impact we had with the omicron in January. I think the good news is that’s starting where it’s like the pipeline swallowing the rat. I think its now going through the system and we’re on the downside.

Also, we’ve been hit by supply chain issues harder there than anywhere else and I think we worked through those. We have a strong production team there, I think we’re focused on the right things and then you’re right, I mean, we got a lower baseline to come from. So I feel pretty confident we’ll be back to year-over-year growth and profitability by mid-year.

Julian Mitchell — Barclays — Analyst

Great, thank you.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

Our next question is from Jeff Hammond with KeyBanc. Please go ahead.

Jeff Hammond — KeyBanc Capital Markets — Analyst

Hey, good morning everyone.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Hi Jeff.

Joseph W. Reitmeier — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Jeff.

Jeff Hammond — KeyBanc Capital Markets — Analyst

Hey, just — maybe just update us on your inventory levels. what you think channel inventories look like? I know these seasonal weaker periods You’ve been trying to catch up.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I mean we’re still low on inventory both in residential and specifically in commercial. That’s why you saw emergency replacement down 40% on our ability to just sort of have the inventory on the ground. So, we’re focused on driving it up, I mean, people who look at the detailed sort of charts will see our inventory levels are up year-over-year for fourth quarter, but that’s driven by a couple of things, that’s driven by the increased cost of components and labor, so the inflationary pressures. And also we have a lot of WIP in raw material, so we’re sort of pulling together material and will miss a piece or apart and we won’t be able to finish the unit and so some of that’s built in there.

But — and then I think the distributor channel through our allied business, I still think that’s relatively lean. So, I don’t think we’ve peaked out in any way. I think there — and our sell into competitors carrier and train, I think their distribution is in the same way. I don’t think Watsco has too much inventory. I think people are still buying.

Jeff Hammond — KeyBanc Capital Markets — Analyst

Okay and then just on supply chain, can you talk about where you think you’re starting to see some stabilization of relief versus maybe where things are still very problematic?

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

It’s a continuing changing picture, if you will. Back in December when we spoke, I was confident and remain confident, but omicron sort of — I think — I don’t think I know had an impact, sort of backed everybody up a bit and specifically in our factories, omicron hit hard in January. We still feel confident for the quarter, but had an impact in January.

The supply chain is healing, although I would tell you there’s still a card or two on omicron that has to be turned over on the impact it’s had on the supply chain. We’re having fewer issues on the things and we had big issues with controls, steel, aluminum, packaging sort of all those things I think are in the rear view mirror. We have a great team focused on this. We’re doing all the things you’d expect us to do and I talked about we’re — in suppliers locations we’re investing in inventory, we’re spending millions of dollars air freighting in components from Asia to make sure we have safety stock. So, we’re doing all the right things.

I just think, every time I want to declare victory omicron — excuse me COVID takes a slightly different direction or a large direction. I think if omicron is the last piece, I think that’s now behind us in our factories. I think it’s broadly behind our supply base and I think we heal quickly because again our — what our factories have steamed with omicron, as everyone’s [Technical Issues] like a rocket, but you tell me what COVID is going to do then I’ll be certain what supply chain is going to do.

Jeff Hammond — KeyBanc Capital Markets — Analyst

Okay. I appreciate the color, Todd.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

Next we’ll go to Ryan Merkel with William Blair. Please go ahead.

Ryan Merkel — William Blair — Analyst

Hey, good morning. Thanks. So first question is, Todd, it looks like production was sort of right down the middle in 4Q. Any change to the outlook for production in the first half either way?

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

I’m not sure I understand the question.

Ryan Merkel — William Blair — Analyst

Production rates, meaning factory productivity, any change to how you’re thinking about that?

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

I mean. Our guide is to guide. I mean, and again it’s — so, as you know, multi-variable equation, we hope to do better, but we’ll see.

Ryan Merkel — William Blair — Analyst

Got it. Okay. And then what are sort of the key focus points and opportunities you’re looking at over the next couple of quarters? I assume supply chain and solving that’s number one, but what else is there?

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Supply chain, price, drive productivity in our factories as we stabilize the production and inventory rates and then third is our strategic investments whether it’s in product and we have some great new product coming out over the next 18 months, digitization which you know a lot about and then continuing to build out our distribution, our store strategy in North America. So, that’s our team is laser focused on, keeping the product flowing or improving production, driving productivity, getting price and continue to focus on strategic investments.

Ryan Merkel — William Blair — Analyst

Perfect, thanks.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

Next question is from Tommy Moll with Stephens. Please go ahead.

Tommy Moll — Stephens — Analyst

Good morning and thanks for taking my questions.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Hey, Tommy.

Tommy Moll — Stephens — Analyst

Todd, I wanted to focus on labor and wages today. What context can you give us on the level of wage inflation you’re seeing here in the U.S. versus maybe in Mexico as well and the level of difficulty in hiring new employees at this point? What update could you give us there?

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

We’ve been fighting that battle for a year and a half, maybe two years and we’ve raised wages in our factories pretty significantly and 15% depending on the factories and even more. We pay premiums to sort of get people to work, second and third shifts in our factories both in Mexico and in North America I think it’s all pre-stabilized at this point.

I think the one factory that we’ve had the most issues with, but I think we’re now focused on the right levers is the one that’s been hit hardest in margins, which is our Stuttgart, Arkansas factory that may be the most rural of our factories and just sort of hard to get to employees, but I think we’ve balanced the wage rates to get that and that’s obviously all in the guide. And again, as you know, our cost of goods sold is less than 10% direct labor. So, we have some flexibility to pay what we need to do to get people in.

Tommy Moll — Stephens — Analyst

Thanks. That’s helpful. Todd. Just to follow up on your stores rollout this year, I think you said 30 earlier. Can you give us any sense of the timing across the quarters and what if any revenue benefit from those new locations is embedded in your guidance?

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

I don’t think much revenue. I think mathematically, mechanically people sort of backs. I mean I think it’s more of the stores we opened this year start to kick in and — or excuse me in 2021 kick in and have some revenue impact. We typically are back-end loaded on stores just because we start to freeze things up in March as we prepare for the summer selling season and we don’t want to distract the sales force. And so, I don’t have the list in front of me, but historically, it’s been two-thirds or so second half of the year and my guess is that’s what it will be this year.

Tommy Moll — Stephens — Analyst

I appreciate it. And I’ll turn it back.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

Next question is from Gautam Khanna with Cowen. Please go ahead.

Gautam Khanna — Cowen and Company — Analyst

Todd, I got to ask, so where are we on the CEO search? If you can say anything?

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I mean, it’s the same placeholder answer that I’ve giving since it began. Right? And it will be — it’s the — Independent Directors are engaged in the search and when they have somebody as my replacement will announce it. Adam Schechter may say something different, but when we have somebody, we’ll announce. That’s for the football fans out there.

Gautam Khanna — Cowen and Company — Analyst

Yes. You just confirmed how it turns out. I think Brady just announced that.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

[Speech Overlap] Okay. I have no announcement.

Gautam Khanna — Cowen and Company — Analyst

Okay, just related to the commercial business, can you update us on your views on IAQ and sort of what’s the pace of inquiry has been around that? And do you have any view that’s changed on kind of what the average ticket size can be in the commercial space and then the resi space relative to the cost of the system? Thanks.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

No, Mike. I’ll answer the second part of question first. Our point of view or my point of view, personally hasn’t changed. I think it’s an important product offering they have. I think it’s important to talk to your customers about. I think when you sell it, it can improve to take it by 10%, 15%, 20%, but it’s not every application. I think as we get through the pandemic and if it comes to an end, epidemic or whatever the right phrase is, I think some of the focus on this will start to pass. I think it’s important that we have it.

And I’ll be honest with you over the last quarter or two, we’re so focused on taking care of core customer requirements given the production issues. We talk about IAQ and we’re selling it, but I would tell you the sales force is spending a lot of time just taking care of base requirements.

Gautam Khanna — Cowen and Company — Analyst

Thank you.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

Next we’ll go to Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Please go ahead.

Nigel Coe — Wolfe Research — Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thanks, Todd. So just going back to Nicole’s question on normal seasonality “normal.” You mentioned obviously pre-COVID, pre-tornado, scanning the numbers suggest 10% or below. Is that what you’re thinking, Todd, in terms of normal seasonality? And the spirit of my question really is any te expectations we should have around 1Q margins, the recovery of the sequential ramp from 4Q? Or would you expect 4Q to be sort of fairly normal? This is 1Q, if that question makes any sense, just wondering expectations of our margins and that seasonality for 1Q specifically?

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I mean, I understand the specific question, I’m not going tighten — I’m not going to give too tight an answer because I just don’t want to get into habit of giving quarterly guidance. I just think if I was building a model, I would sort of normalize it based on sort of our track record pre-COVID, pre-tornado that’s roughly what it’s going to be.

I mean, I think Q4 may have some strength compared to prior Q4s if there’s any kind of pre-buy, but right now, I don’t — my best guess is there won’t be much of one Q1 demand strong, but — or supply constrained and so I don’t — I think that will sort of hinder what we can do in Q1 and some will bleed in the Q2. So, I think it’s always with us. It’s going to be a second and third quarter game.

Nigel Coe — Wolfe Research — Analyst

Okay and then just a quick one, my follow on is around the mix neutral and residential for FY ’22. I think we had some mix down during 2021. So, I believe we might get some relief on that, especially the semi. So the semi supply here I think get better, so just curious what’s driving that assumption for neutral mix. And I’m just wondering if the pre-buy effects into that?

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

No, I don’t think the pre-buys factors in a major way because I just said, we’re not counting much on that. I think maybe there’s some conservatism in that number. I mean, we just got to get our — as you know or at least what I’ve spoken about our Mexico factories performed the best for us and that’s where we tend to have more the entry-level product. We’ve turned on some of our mid-tier and high-tier product that we hadn’t allowed certain dealers to buy that’s now turned on. If we continue to ramp up in our Marshalltown factory then maybe we have some positive news on mix.

Nigel Coe — Wolfe Research — Analyst

Great, thanks, Todd.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

Next question is from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Please go ahead.

Jeff Sprague — Vertical Research Partners — Analyst

Hey, thanks. Good morning everyone. Just wondering if we could just touch on price a little bit more. Todd, it looks like on kind of the exit rate on resi, you’re going to be in the ballpark of what you’re anticipating for the year. I’m just wondering how much incremental price relative to your exit rate do you actually kind of need to get in the market to hit that? What is it $235 million or so for the year?

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

I think what happens is you’d lap part of that. Right? So part of the price that we got in fourth quarter on a sort of the year-over-year comp goes away as we go into 2022 because it was a price increase that we announced in early in the first quarter of 2021. So, the answer is we still got to go to price and we’ve announced it and we’re confident we’re sticking it. And so, again the numbers we’re giving you are fourth quarter numbers. First quarter, we’re confident that we’re going to get the price that we need. And as you suggested, we had 8% or so in fourth quarter on resi and that’s order of magnitude the number for next for 2022. Full year, we need to get 6% — I think Joe said 5%, I have 6% on my notes. So, it’s probably 5.5% price in 2022. We’re confident we’re going to able to do that.

Joseph W. Reitmeier — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, it is 5.5%, Todd.

Jeff Sprague — Vertical Research Partners — Analyst

Okay, great. And just one little peculiarity and maybe I heard it wrong, but it looks like Refrigeration got less price in the quarter than in the year. Is that correct? Everything else seem to be building over the course of the year.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

I’m going to punt on that one.

Jeff Sprague — Vertical Research Partners — Analyst

I think Joe said price up 1% I think through the quarter and up 3% for the year, maybe I wrote that down wrong.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

And what’s your question about that?

Jeff Sprague — Vertical Research Partners — Analyst

I just want to confirm that’s correct?

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah.

Jeff Sprague — Vertical Research Partners — Analyst

Got it. Okay.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Joe, do you know that? Yeah, what I have in my notes is for the year, we got about 5% pricing — in 2022 we need to get 5% price in refrigeration and we’re confident we’re going to be able to that. And I think we’re confirming the numbers $1 million in fourth quarter, $3 million for the year.

Jeff Sprague — Vertical Research Partners — Analyst

All right. Okay, thank you.

Operator

Next, we’ll go to Joe Ritchie with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Thanks, good morning, everyone.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Hi, Joe.

Joe Ritchie — Goldman Sachs — Analyst

Guys, can you help maybe just parse out the margin headwinds in 4Q and resi just given you did exit with 8 points of price. Just trying to understand what you felt the impact in and then like should we be anticipating a similar impact in 1Q in the resi business?

Joseph W. Reitmeier — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

I think one thing to think about is on a year-over-year basis, we had 6% fewer days, that was worth order of magnitude $10 million of EBIT. And then the other impact in resi was the COVID impact and I think that will be less in first quarter than it was in fourth quarter and that was order of magnitude another $10 million. So, there’s sort of $20 million of headwind between COVID at 6% fewer days on a year-over-year basis that don’t impact first quarter.

Joe Ritchie — Goldman Sachs — Analyst

Okay, great. That’s helpful. And then I guess maybe just kind of thinking through, the commercial business and getting back to like pre-COVID margins in that business. It’s kind of like the expectation for 2022, I mean, we don’t quite get there, but you’ll see meaningful improvement in the second half, maybe we start to see those kind of rates in QH?

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

I think that’s right. I don’t think we get back to where we were pre-COVID in commercial in one year., I think it will take a couple of years and as said it will be mid-year when we start the improvement. But again, I think all the pieces are there, we got the product, we have customer demand. We just got to get the factory humming.

Joe Ritchie — Goldman Sachs — Analyst

Got it. Helpful. Thank you.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks.

Operator

Our final question will be from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley. Please go ahead.

Brandi Cooper — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Hi, this is Brandy on for Josh. How are you?

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Good. How are you?

Brandi Cooper — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

So question on commercial market share. I know the timing of business differences make it a little hard to compare the businesses. But do you have a sense for how your commercial business did in 2021 versus your comparable light unitary markets?

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

I think we lost share. I don’t think there’s any doubt about that. So, I see it in numbers — I won’t give the exact numbers, but we lost share. I don’t — it’s less than a point of share because share moves slowly in commercial, but we lost share. And I think in our residential businesses, we are flat to slightly up, but the production issues in commercial held us.

Brandi Cooper — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Okay. That’s helpful. And then on resi mix, up 1%, do you have an idea of what mix was within replacement and how 2021 mix within replacement compared to a typical year?

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

No I don’t have that in front of me, but I’ll have Steve dig that up and get back to you. I think the answer is what I have in the math in front of me is we didn’t have the normal mix up and replacement that we typically would because we were able to produce more product in our Mexico facility, which is more entry level and so we steered customers to more entry level product than we typically would. And so I think on a full year basis, replacement mix was probably flat to slightly down.

Brandi Cooper — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Great, thanks. I appreciate that.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

And I’ll turn it back That’s it [Speech Overlap].

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Okay, great.

Operator

Yeah. Go ahead with any closing comments.

Todd M. Bluedorn — Chairman of the Board and Chief Executive Officer

Okay. Thanks everyone for joining us. To wrap up, in challenging conditions, Lennox International team is executing well, capitalize on market opportunities and we look forward to a year of strong growth and profitability in 2022. Thanks everyone again for joining us.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]