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ArcBest Q4 adjusted EPS misses estimates as revenue tops expectations

ArcBest Corporation (Nasdaq: ARCB) on Friday reported fourth-quarter 2025 results that underscored the impact of a sustained freight recession on the logistics sector. While the company exceeded top-line expectations with revenue of $972.7 million, its adjusted earnings per share of $0.36 fell short of the $0.42 consensus estimate, reflecting a 72.9% year-over-year decline in adjusted profitability.

Management attributed the earnings miss to a shift in freight mix toward heavier, lower-yielding shipments and increased operational costs. However, the report highlighted a significant recovery in the company’s Asset-Light segment and the realization of nearly $24 million in annual savings from technology-driven efficiency programs.

Segment Performance Analysis

The company’s Asset-Based segment, primarily comprised of ABF Freight, reported revenue of $648.8 million, down 1.1% compared to the prior-year period. Despite a 2.4% increase in daily shipments and a 2.6% rise in tonnage—driven by the successful onboarding of new core LTL customers—operating income for the segment fell 53.3% to $24.4 million. The segment’s operating ratio (OR) deteriorated to 96.2%, up from 92.0% in Q4 2024.

In contrast, the Asset-Light segment demonstrated a turnaround in operational efficiency. While revenue declined 5.1% on a daily basis to $353.5 million due to lower market rates, the segment achieved non-GAAP breakeven results, improving by $6 million year-over-year. This was supported by a 15% reduction in SG&A cost per shipment and a 19% increase in shipments per person per day.

Key Financial and Operational Metrics

The following table details the year-over-year changes for the quarter and the full fiscal year:

PeriodRevenueNet Income (GAAP)Adj. EPS (Non-GAAP)Op. Ratio (Asset-Based)
Q4 2025$972.7M($8.1M)$0.3696.2%
Q4 2024$1,001.9M$29.0M$1.3392.0%
Full Year 2025$4.0B$60.1M$3.7093.7%
Full Year 2024$4.2B$173.4M*$6.2891.2%

*2024 Net Income included a $67.9M after-tax benefit from a fair value adjustment related to the MoLo acquisition.

Executive Commentary and Strategic Initiatives

During the earnings call, Seth Runser, President and CEO of ArcBest, emphasized the company’s long-term trajectory over current cyclical headwinds.

“2025 was a year of strong execution and meaningful progress,” Runser stated. “Amid a challenging freight environment, our team delivered growth in LTL shipments and tonnage, restored profitability in Asset-Light, and achieved record productivity as customers increasingly embraced our integrated, technology-driven solutions.”

Matt Beasley, Chief Financial Officer, highlighted the impact of cost-out measures, noting that “phases two and three of City Route Optimization delivered $2 million in savings last year, bringing the total savings from the project to $15 million in 2025.” He also pointed to the company’s disciplined capital allocation, having returned $86 million to shareholders during the year.

Technology and Innovation as Growth Drivers

ArcBest has heavily leaned into artificial intelligence to mitigate the impact of the freight downturn.

The company reported several data-driven milestones:

  • AI-Powered Procurement: Improvements in truckload buy rates contributed a $2.5 million benefit to operating income in 2025.
  • Automation: An AI phone agent was utilized by over 23,000 carriers to cover 7,000 shipments, effectively cutting carrier call abandonment rates in half.
  • Digital Augmentation: More than 50% of truckload shipments are now digitally augmented, with the carrier portal adoption rate rising to 32%.

Sector Context and 2026 Outlook

The results reflect broader industrial trends, specifically a “softness in manufacturing and housing markets” noted by Chief Commercial Officer, Eddie Sorg. While January tonnage was up 8%, a simultaneous 8% drop in revenue per hundredweight highlighted the ongoing pressure on yields as the industry waits for a manufacturing rebound. Looking ahead, the company provided a cautious but stable outlook for the first quarter of 2026. Management expects the Asset-Based non-GAAP operating ratio to increase by 100 to 200 basis points sequentially, a figure that is better than typical historical seasonality. Capital expenditures for 2026 are projected to be between $150 million and $170 million, down from $198 million in 2025, as the company prioritizes efficiency over physical network expansion.

Categories: Analysis Earnings
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