Brown & Brown, Inc (NYSE: BRO) Q1 2026 Earnings Call dated Apr. 28, 2026
Corporate Participants:
J. Powell Brown — President and Chief Executive Officer
R. Andrew Watts — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Analysts:
Robert Cox — Analyst
Tracy Benguigui — Analyst
Elyse Greenspan — Analyst
Michael Zaremski — Analyst
Mark Hughes — Analyst
Bob Huang — Analyst
Josh Shanker — Analyst
Alex Scott — Analyst
Meyer Shields — Analyst
Pablo S. Singzon — Analyst
Yaron Kinar — Analyst
Brian Meredith — Analyst
Presentation:
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to the Brown Brown, Inc. First Quarter Earnings Call. Today’s call is being recorded. Please note that certain information discussed during this call, including information contained in the slide presentation posted in connection with this call and including answers given in your response to your questions may relate to future results and events or otherwise be forward-looking in nature. Such statements reflect our current views with respect to our future events, including those relating to the company’s anticipated financial results for the first-quarter and are intended to fall within the safe-harbor provisions of the security laws. Actual results or events in the future are subject to a number of risks and uncertainties and may differ materially from those currently anticipated or desire or referenced in any forward-looking statements made as a result of number of factors. Such factors, including the company’s determination as it finalized its financial results for the first-quarter that its financial results differ from the current preliminary unaudited numbers set forth in the press release issued yesterday. Other factors that the company may not have currently identified or quantified and those issued — I’m sorry, and those risks and uncertainties identified from time-to-time in the company reports filed in the Securities and Exchange Commission. There will be additional discussion of these and other factors affecting the company’s business and prospects as well as additional information regarding forward-looking statements is contained in the slide presentation posted in connection with this call and in the company’s filing in the Securities and Exchange Commission. We disclaim any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. In addition, there are certain non-GAAP financial measures used in this conference call. A reconciliation of non-GAAP financial measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures can be found in the company’s earnings press release or in the investor presentation for this call on the company’s website, atb brown.com by clicking on Investor Relations and then Calendar of Events. With that said, I would now like to turn the call over to Pyl Brown, President and Chief Executive Officer. You may begin.
J. Powell Brown — President and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Tawanda. Good morning, everyone, and welcome to our first quarter earnings call. Overall, we delivered good financial results for Q1, reflecting the continued dedication of our nearly 23,000 teammates who provide best-in-class solutions to our diversified customer base. These results are a continuation of the industry-leading top and bottom line performance we delivered in 2025. I’ll provide some high-level comments regarding our performance, along with updates on our customers, the insurance markets, and the M&A landscape. Then Andy will discuss our financial performance in more detail. This quarter, we also wanted to take some time to provide an update on our technology and data journeys, with a focus on how we’re leveraging these capabilities in combination with artificial intelligence to provide even more value to our customers, teammates, and carrier partners. Lastly, I’ll wrap up with some closing and forward-looking thoughts before we open up to Q&A. I’m on Slide 4. For the first quarter, we delivered revenues of $1.9 billion, growing 35.4% in total. Beginning this quarter, we’re also presenting our organic growth with contingent commissions as another comparable measure to other publicly traded brokers. Andy will get into more detail how this metric gives a good correlation to our margins and cash flow generation. For the first quarter, organic revenue growth was flat with the prior year and with contingents increased 2.2%. Both growth metrics were impacted by prior year flood claims processing revenue and continued pressure on cat property rates. The flood claims revenue represented a negative impact on our organic growth metrics of nearly 100 basis points. We had another great quarter for profitable growth. Our EBITDA — adjusted EBITDA margin increased 40 basis points to 38.5%, and our adjusted earnings per share grew nearly 8% to $1.39. For the first quarter, we generated good cash flow from operations of over $260 million. Overall, we’re pleased with the solid top and bottom line results for the quarter. I’m on slide 5. From an economic standpoint, conditions during the quarter were stable. Customer hiring and investment activity levels were generally consistent with prior periods, and — which continue to drive demand for creative insurance and risk management solutions. Customers remain focused on balancing cost and coverage decisions while prioritizing value and risk management. At the end of the quarter, the geopolitical issues and specifically the cost of oil and gas did influence some of our customers. As a result, they began to make slightly more cautious — take a slightly more cautious outlook and are balancing the implications of absorbing cost increases versus passing them on to their customers. From a commercial insurance standpoint, the changes in rates remain relatively consistent with prior quarters except for cat property, which declined further than in the fourth quarter of last year. Pricing for employee benefits was fairly similar to prior quarters with medical costs up 8% to 10% and pharmacy costs up over 10%. We continue to consult and advise our customers on multiple strategies that can be employed to manage high-cost claimants and pharmacy spend. We leverage our extensive consultative solutions to deliver high-impact strategy for population health, captives, stop-loss, and carve-outs for certain services. Shifting to the rate environment, the admitted P&C markets continue to be in the range of flat to up 5% versus prior year, but did moderate slightly as compared to last quarter. Workers’ comp rates remained flat to down 3%, while we saw a few states increase rates modestly. For non-cap property overall, rates remain down, down 5 to up 5, depending on the loss experience and the location. For casualty lines, rates increased 2 to 5% for primary layers, with excess layers increasing materially more. For professional liability, rates remain similar to the last couple quarters and were down 5 to up 5. Shifting to the E&S market, let’s split the conversation between property and casualty. For property, both Wind and Quake rates declined. Rate declines were modestly more than we experienced in Q4 of last year. Most of our placements for the quarter were down 15% to 35%. At the end of the quarter, we saw placements above and below this range. Generally, customers are capturing most of the savings. However, some are utilizing the savings to decrease deductibles increase limits, or buy other lines of coverage. These tactics are common when rates are moderating or declining. On the casualty front, not much has changed versus prior quarters. The ability to get higher limits is extremely challenging. Pricing continues to increase. Primary layers are becoming more expensive, and carriers are decreasing the limits they’ll offer. We do not expect this trend to change materially over the coming quarters. I’m on slide 6. Let’s transition to the performance of our two segments for the quarter. Retail delivered organic growth including contingents of 1.3% and organic growth excluding contingents of 1%. This was due to the combination of rate, the change in a revenue model of one of our pharmacy consulting businesses, and lower net new business in the quarter. The revenue model of this business in terms of consulting business is changing and is expected to negatively impact organic growth by 50 to 100 basis points over the next couple of quarters. Then we expect this business to start growing towards the end of the year. In connection with our integration efforts to bring both companies together and position us to leverage our combined capabilities, We’ve been very deliberate regarding augmentation of our operating model. Legacy Risk Strategies was more of a regional sales model, while legacy Brown Brown Middle Market was more of a local sales model. Steve Hearn and his leadership team have taken the best of both to create a new sales model that’s underpinning with industry and line and coverage specialization. We believe these enhancements will drive higher net new business as leaders establish their operating rhythm. While it’s still a bit early, we’re already seeing increased activity, gives us optimism about the second half of the year and heading into 2027. Based on the rate environment, the changes in one of our pharmacy consulting businesses and the operating model enhancements, we’re projecting modest organic growth improvement each quarter this year as compared to the first quarter. Now let’s talk about Specialty Distribution. For the quarter, organic revenue including contingents increased by 3.9% and decreased by 2% when excluding contingents. These organic revenue metrics were negatively impacted by nearly 300 basis points driven by the $12 million of flood claims processing revenue we recognized in the first quarter of last year. We believe the results for the first quarter were strong considering cat property rates were down 15% to 35% and even more later in the quarter. We have a highly diversified and specialized business. And when we look at the underlying volumes for policies in force, exclusive of any rate impact, most of our businesses had good growth. From a contingent standpoint, it was another great quarter. As we look forward, we anticipate relatively flat organic growth excluding contingents in Q2 due to heavy weighting of cat property placements. In the second half of the year, we’re expecting improving growth as we place less cat property and the 180 businesses from Ascension help drive our organic growth. Remember, 180 has a comparatively smaller amount of property and heavier weighting of casualty as compared to the legacy Brown Brown Specialty Distribution business. Now I’ll turn it over to Andy to get into more details of our financial results.
R. Andrew Watts — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Treasurer
Thank you, Paul. Good morning, everybody.
Before we get into the financial details, we want to talk about a few items. The first is reporting organic growth with contingents as another measure of our performance and a reference point to other public brokers. As we’ve discussed in the past, our ability to generate contingent commissions is a core part of our business model and can fluctuate quarterly. Contingent commissions are a higher percentage of total revenues in the Specialty Distribution segment as compared to Retail due to the fact that we substantially control underwriting discipline. While organic growth has been pressured in certain parts of our business, primarily due to cap property pricing, we have realized a substantial increase in contingents due to underwriting profitability. Generally, when E&S rates are decreasing, our contingents will increase. This inverse correlation creates more stability in our revenues, margins, and cash flow. Transitioning now to our consolidated results. As a reminder, when we refer to EBITDAC, EBITDAC margin, income before income taxes, or diluted net income per share, we’re referring to those measures on an adjusted basis. The reconciliations of our GAAP to non-GAAP financial measures can be found either in the appendix of this presentation or in the press release we issued yesterday. Now let’s get into more detail regarding our financial performance for the quarter. We’re over on page 7. On a consolidated basis, we delivered total revenues of $1 billion — or $1,900 million, growing 35.4% as compared to the first quarter of 2025. Contingent commissions grew by an impressive $54 million, with $22 million coming from a session. The underlying organic increase was driven by minimal storm claim activity and higher underwriting profitability, primarily within our Specialty Distribution segment. Income before income taxes increased by 28.7%, and EBITDA grew by 36.7%. 6%.
Our EBITDA margin was 38.5%, a 40 basis point increase over the first quarter of the prior year. This was a strong result considering the impact from the session, which we’ll talk about in a few minutes, and the prior year flood claims processing revenue. The underlying margin expansion was driven by significantly higher contingent commissions along with our continued discipline, management of our expenses. Regarding Accession, we recognized total revenues of approximately $445 million for the quarter. Due to legacy Brown Brown’s high margins in the first quarter associated with our employee benefits businesses and the expected quarterly phasing of revenue and profit for Accession, our adjusted EBITDA margins were negatively impacted by approximately 200 basis points for the quarter. For the full year, we still expect the overall adjusted EBITDA margins for the Accession business will be around 35%. Our effective tax rate for the quarter was 22.8%, a slight increase over the prior year of 21.8%. The incremental rate was driven by an increase in certain state taxes. Diluted net income per share increased 7.8% to $1.39. Our weighted average shares increased by approximately 52 million to 337 million, primarily due to shares issued in connection with the acquisition of Ascension. During the last 6 months, we reduced our share count by approximately $5 million or 1.4% through $350 million of stock repurchases. Lastly, our dividends paid per share increased by 10% as compared to the first quarter of 2025.
We’re over on slide number 8. The retail segment grew total revenues by 33.4%. This growth was driven primarily by acquisition activity over the past year and organic growth including contingents of 1.3%. Since we’re in litigation with the startup broker, we are excluding the impact on organic revenue growth associated with individuals that left and joined the startup. The impact for the first quarter was approximately $10 million. At the end of March, the startup has taken customers representing approximately $31 million of annual revenue as compared to the $23 million we announced last quarter. Our EBITDA margin decreased by 130 basis points to 36%, resulting from the quarterly weighting of revenue and profit for legacy Brown Brown as compared to Risk Strategies. This impact of more than 300 basis points offset good underlying margin expansion driven by disciplined expense management. Additionally, there was a net benefit to our margins of approximately 40 to 60 basis points due to individuals that departed to the startup. As we hire new teammates over the coming quarters, a portion of this margin benefit will moderate. We’re over on slide number 9. Specialty Distribution grew total revenues by 40%, driven by the acquisition of Accession and a substantial increase in contingent commissions. The higher contingent commissions of $52 million were driven by $22 million of acquisition activity and $30 million from favorable underwriting performance. We realized approximately $5 million of contingents associated with adjustments to prior year accruals based on finalization of the calculations and approximately $10 million of contingents this quarter that were recorded over the third and fourth quarters of 2025. Our EBITDA margin increased by 30 basis points to 40.8% due to higher contingent commissions and our disciplined management of our expenses. These were partially offset by the profit associated with lower prior year flood claims processing revenue. Turning to cash flow and the balance sheet, we had another strong quarter and generated over $260 million of cash flow from operations, increasing approximately $50 million or 23% versus the prior year. Our ratio of cash flow from operations to total revenues was approximately 14% for the quarter, down slightly as compared to 15% in the prior year. The decline reflected a Cession Integration Cost and higher-than-anticipated final earnout payments related to acquisitions that outperformed our original estimates. These items offset strong underlying cash conversion. We continue to anticipate good cash generation for the remainder of the year and will balance our deployment of capital between share repurchases, M&A, dividends, and delevering. With that, let me turn it back over to Paul for some comments regarding technology, data, and artificial intelligence.
J. Powell Brown — President and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Andy, and great report. I was going to clarify that on the share repurchases, we reduced the share count by about 5 million shares.
In terms of the purchasing and $350 million of share repurchases. So let’s change gears and discuss technology and data as those topics are shaping how we’re thinking about the future of insurance brokerage and how we’re positioned to capture the opportunities on the horizon. I’m on slide 11. Our technology and data journey commenced over 10 years ago, specifically when we began platform rationalization and data standardization across our business. These investments were foundational as AI is only effective when built on clean, standardized, and scalable data platforms. Like most companies, our data journey, journey is ongoing as we’re always integrating acquisitions, seeking to better capture data and enhance our analytics. Over the past few years, we’ve been shifting more of our technology focus towards innovation and artificial intelligence. Our technology strategy is aligned with our goal to be the leading global provider of insurance solutions for our customers. On slide 12, throughout our technology evolution, the focus has remained consistent: drive revenue growth, enhance the customer experience, and improve teammate effectiveness and productivity. Our efforts are focused on developing enhanced solutions to increase sales velocity, improve customer interactions, and reduce manual, low complex — complexity or repetitive work. These efforts will empower our teammates to spend more time advising customers, underwriting, and helping companies and individuals better manage risk. Our progression is intentional, and therefore we did not jump directly to AI. We’re investing in the fundamentals first, which is enabling us to innovate and deploy AI reasonably at scale and in ways that directly support growth across the company. We view AI as an enabler and an accelerator of our existing strategy. As we deploy AI capabilities, they are led by the business and are focused on targeted use cases that have measurable success metrics that can be scaled. Our value proposition continues to be built on trusted advisory relationships, delivering outstanding service, strong carrier relationships, and disciplined underwriting. We’re in the early stages of a multiyear journey that has already delivered value through enhanced capabilities. We believe embracing AI will support incremental revenue growth and operating leverage over the long term. I’m on slide 13. Now let’s talk about how we’re building an AI-powered organization with enterprise capabilities that empowers local development to solve real business needs. Our organization is designed to incubate, incubate AI solutions quickly and then deploy the capabilities at scale. We’re investing in world-class data and AI teammates, enterprise-grade technologies, and a strong ecosystem of technology partners. Our approach is to combine out-of-the-box AI tools and proprietary Brown Brown AI products that embed our data workflows and deep insurance knowledge. We’re embracing an AI-first culture built on fail-fast incubation, cloud-native platforms, modern APIs, and a scalable data foundation. Our framework is anchored in secure design principles and reinforced by strong governance and responsible AI practices. This structure allows us to prove value early, subject ideas to rigorous scrutiny, and scale quickly across the company. I’m on slide 14. Here are just a few of our AI-powered solutions that are live and delivering value. We’re scaling AI agents that will automate more than 25% of the end-to-end submission process for many of our programs and wholesale businesses, achieving material cost reductions and removing throughput limits. This incremental underwriting capacity is being redirected to high-value revenue growth activities. These agents are enabling more processing in the same day, thereby improving the customer experience, accelerating growth through higher win rates, and driving stronger underwriting results for our carriers. In retail, our policy checking agents automate traditionally manual proposal comparison and policy reviews, improving risk insight while reducing E&O exposure. We have also created capabilities that pull key features from complex policies to create clear customer summaries, simplify customer conversations, and improve retention. Lastly, we’ve built a proprietary platform that electronically interfaces with carrier billing portals, automatically extracts and validates billing data, flags exceptions for review, and then files the customer policy in our agency management system. This platform is already saving more than 50,000 hours annually and continues to be rolled out across the company. I’m on slide 15. This slide frames how we think about our customers that pay under $25,000 in premium. In retail, commercial, and employee benefits accounts under this threshold, and monoline personal lines represents between 1% and 2% of total retail revenues. Excuse me. Keep in mind that some of these policies are placed through an intermediary, making them more complex and less likely to be disrupted. We believe that the primary risk is that customers think they no longer need a broker and choose to go direct. This can happen today with or without AI. Our differentiators remain breadth of carrier relationships, a solution mindset, technology, industry experience, service, and claims advocacy. Our opportunity is to leverage these differentiators to grow market share over the coming quarters. In Specialty Distribution, we’ve built a highly diversified and scalable specialty insurance distribution and underwriting platform, with technology powering the core part of our value proposition. We think business segments with the highest theoretical AI exposure are admitted aggregators and highly standardized small accounts businesses. These are not areas where we have invest — invested significant capital or have material revenue. Specialty Distributions’ business model is built on niche specialization with a significant portion of our revenue and profit generated by businesses with structural moats. These include regulation, capital or technology intensity, underwriting complexity, historical data, omnichannel distribution networks, claims management, and the capacity for longstanding trusted carrier relationships. The opportunities created by AI and further industry automation would include higher submission flow and new revenue channels, thereby helping us capture more market share. In summary, we believe technology is an enabler that will drive incremental revenue growth and margin improvement in the future. Now I have a few closing comments, and then we’ll open it up to M&A. As been — as has been the case in recent quarters, there are ongoing sources of volatility in the broader environment. Currently, geopolitical turmoil is causing some business leaders to have a more cautious bias. The impact of higher oil prices and inflationary ripple effects may influence growth in certain sectors. What we’ve learned from our customers post-COVID is that they’re resilient, creative, and adaptive. Therefore, we feel comfortable our customers will navigate the current challenges and capture growth opportunities. From a pricing standpoint, we expect admitted rates will continue to moderate slightly. EMS rates will remain bifurcated with casualty increasing and cat property decreasing at levels similar to the first quarter. However, we would not be surprised if in the second quarter if certain carriers or MGAs become more aggressive related to cat property placements. From our perspective, we will remain disciplined and will not compromise the quality of our underwriting. From an accession integration standpoint, we’re focused on bringing teams together, enhancing collaboration, and leveraging our capabilities to win and retain more customers. Integration activities are on track for us to deliver our EBITDA synergies of $30 to $40 million this year. The team’s doing a great job, and I’m extremely pleased with our progress. We talked earlier about the positive impact of AI on our business. We feel confident that it will improve the customer experience, the underwriting and placement process, the productivity of our teammates, and drive incremental growth in revenue and margins over the coming quarters. Our balance sheet and cash flow are strong, and therefore, our focus will continue to be on delevering, investing in our teammates, enhancing our technology capabilities, repurchasing shares and acquiring smaller or specialized firms that fit culturally and make sense financially. We will continue to invest our capital with the goal of driving long-term shareholder value. We feel great about the business, about our activity levels, the integration efforts and how the team is leveraging our capabilities for the benefits of our customers. With our laser focus on execution and the customer, we’re positioned to deliver solid top and bottom line results over the coming quarters. With that, we’ll turn it back off — back to Tawanda and open up the lines for Q&A.
Questions and Answers:
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, to ask a question, please press star 1-1 on your telephone, then wait for your name to be announced. To withdraw your question, please press star 1 1 again. We ask that you limit yourself to one question. You may then return to the queue for additional questions. Please stand by while we compile the Q&A roster. Our first question comes from the line of Rob Cox with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.
Robert Cox
Hey, thanks.
J. Powell Brown
Good morning.
Robert Cox
Yeah, first question I had for you was on the operating model in retail. It sounds like you’re moving to a specialization model versus the local and regional models that Brown Session had previously. I was just hoping you could talk through, you know, how is this changing how your business operates? Does this change how producers are incentivized? And is it right to think that, you know, this model is moving towards, you know, the model that a lot of your larger competitors have today?
J. Powell Brown
I wouldn’t want you to think exactly the way you described it, Rob. Think about they had — they meaning Restraategies — had a regional sales model and we had a local sales model, and we’re blending. They’re picking the best of both, which is enabling, we believe, producers to have access to more capabilities and will enable them to be successful. So I wouldn’t want you to draw the conclusion that we’re trying to move towards what you were referring to on some of those larger competitors. I think it’s kind of unique unto ourselves, and I think it’s actually been very positively received by our producers.
Robert Cox
And then just follow up on the — the specialty pharma revenue model change. Just curious how this came about. You know, is this shifting from commission to a fee? Why make this change and why now?
J. Powell Brown
All right. So first of all, let’s talk about what the business does. The business helps our customers and their employees reduce their pharmacy spend. And so the model is going from a volume-based model to a P-E-P-M model over the next several quarters.
Robert Cox
Okay, thank you.
J. Powell Brown
Okay.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Tracy Bengigu with Wolfe Research. Your line is open. Thank you.
Tracy Benguigui
I appreciate seeing your statistic about personal lines, small and micro commercial policies with less than $25,000 in premium to be about 1% to 2% of your retail revenues. But can you unpack why looking at that level of premiums is the right starting point? Like, why not $50,000 or $100,000?
J. Powell Brown
Well, I think Well, the way we view it is we are working with complex and customized commercial risks. And so you can have that absolutely in accounts that pay in excess of $25,000. So that’s how we’ve defined it. And again, if it — if the business is highly standardized and not complex, then I think your point is valid. But I would tell you that in the middle market that we are so active in, that is the space that we operate in, the complex and the customized commercial risk. So that’s why we define it at $25,000.
Tracy Benguigui
Okay. I wonder if you could provide a new outlook for contingents. Last quarter you guided $50 million of less contingents in specialty distribution for the full year ’26, and you’re trending so far ahead of that.
J. Powell Brown
Excuse me, you’re breaking up.
Tracy Benguigui
Yeah, okay. I was wondering if you could provide — an updated outlook on contingents. Last quarter, you guided 15 million of less contingents within specialty distribution. And I’m just wondering, given your 1Q performance so far, you’re trending ahead of that, and it seemed like there have been some one-timers as well. So how should we put those pieces together?
R. Andrew Watts
Good morning, Tracy. Can you hear us okay?
Tracy Benguigui
Yes.
R. Andrew Watts
Okay, perfect. Sorry, I didn’t know if it was you breaking up or on our end. Is based upon the performance in the first quarter, we are anticipating that our contingent commissions for the entire company will be up this year. We had an outstanding first quarter.
Tracy Benguigui
Okay. Is there any direction you could provide for that?
J. Powell Brown
Let’s see.
R. Andrew Watts
Well, last year we were up, I think we were about $255 million. I’m sorry. hold on, Let me double-check here. We were, yeah, we were about $255 million last year. And obviously, we had really nice upside in the first quarter. So we would anticipate most of that continuing to flow through on a variance for the full year.
Tracy Benguigui
Okay. I guess part of that was you mentioned $30 million from favorable underwriting performance, but if we’re in a soft market, shouldn’t we see some of those — that margin abating?
R. Andrew Watts
Yeah. So I think that’s maybe one of the things worth us just clarifying real quickly, because keep in mind, in the specialty distribution space, at least for us, is that we calculate our contingents on a program-by-program basis. They’re not built upon, you know, overall industry profitability. And so some people have asked us about that in the past. In our prepared comments, we said that, you know, we substantially control all of the underwriting rigor and discipline. And we believe that we run some of the most profitable programs in the industry for our carrier partners and deliver great products for our customers that are out there. And so we’re very, very in tune with making sure that we maintain maintain profitability.
Tracy Benguigui
Okay. Thank you.
J. Powell Brown
Yeah.
R. Andrew Watts
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Elsie Greenspan with Wells Fargo. Your line is open.
Elyse Greenspan
Hi. Thanks. Good morning. My first question, if we look at your contingents over the past year, what percentage is volume-based versus profit-based? And would you expect the mix between the two to change over the course of the next year?
R. Andrew Watts
Good morning, Elise. On the contingent commissions, almost all of those are based on profitability. There’s a few of them that have a combination of volume and profit, but that’s a pretty small percentage. You normally don’t get into the volume side until you get into incentives and GSCs.
Elyse Greenspan
Okay. And then on retail, on the organic, I think you guys said 50 to 100 basis point impact from the change in the revenue model over the next couple of quarters. But then you also guided to organic improving sequentially relative to the Q1. So I guess what’s the offset that’s driving the sequential improvement if you have a negative impact? Or was the model change, I guess, a similar magnitude in the Q1?
R. Andrew Watts
No, I think what we were trying to help everybody understand there is, one, we know we’ve got some headwinds from this business as it goes through the revenue model change. But as we said, improving organic growth by the quarters, and that is, you know, our expectation based upon, you know, the discussion on the change in our sales model. And, you know, Tapal’s comment earlier about starting to see some of the initial activity levels improving.
Elyse Greenspan
And then the guidance for retail and specialty distribution, the organic color, does that assume similar property cat rate declines over the course of the year? I know mix impacts a little bit less property in the Q2, but are you assuming similar level of rate declines for the remainder of the year?
R. Andrew Watts
So at least for the second quarter, we’re anticipating that rates are definitely going to be under pressure like they were in the first quarter. And again, it won’t surprise us if we see some unusual things towards the end of the quarter on rates. Remember what happened in June of last year, right before storm season. So things could definitely move around. And then we don’t place a lot of cap property in the third quarter, at least.
The industry doesn’t either. And then we won’t see it until the back end of the year. We wouldn’t opine on potentially what cat property rates would look like for the fourth quarter right now, because that’ll be subject to storm season.
J. Powell Brown
I would just add at least two things. One, remember Q2 is a heavy property quarter.
R. Andrew Watts
Exactly.
J. Powell Brown
And number two, we — that also doesn’t assume if there was a wind event. So don’t know if there would be a wind event, but if there’s a wind event, that could change the dynamics and the pricing as well.
Elyse Greenspan
Okay, got it. Thank you. Thank you.
J. Powell Brown
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from the line of Michael Zaremski with BMO. Your line is open.
Michael Zaremski
Hey, thanks.
J. Powell Brown
Good morning.
Michael Zaremski
First question, just any update on the litigation impact on the top line as we progress throughout the year? The number, the $10 million number was I think much lower, better than the consensus had. Thanks.
R. Andrew Watts
Good morning, Mike. Yeah, what we did, we provided just an update as to where the lost business is right now on it. So that’s the $31 million. We were previously at $23. I think maybe one area where potentially folks thought it would be different, when we reported the 23, we said that was an annualized number. It’s not anticipated that all that was going to come out in the first quarter because of when, you know, X dates are throughout the year. So we’ll continue to see quarterly impacts this year. And that just going to be the delta between the 31 and the 10. Again, that number probably move around a little bit, but that gives you an idea of how flow by the following quarters.
Michael Zaremski
Okay, got it. I’m just, you know, I guess I’m assuming just given that, you know, you updated us on the 275 people that departed, that that number will grow. So I think the consensus is embedding a very much higher number than 31, but got it. My follow-up, this might be a, unfair question, but, you know, if we look at kind of Brown’s organic growth with contingents, by the way, versus peers, you know, it is expected to be a bit lighter than its historical relationship to peers. So I guess my question is, you know, if — are there idiosyncratic things that are impacting Brown that we know of that, you know, under under normal circumstances, you would have expected Brown’s organic to be just maybe a little bit better under current conditions? Or really, is it just more of an issue of Brown being a bit overweight property and properties under a lot of pressure?
J. Powell Brown
Thanks. So Michael, I think it’s a combination of a couple of things. So let’s acknowledge Several of the obvious things. One, we have a large acquisition where we’re bringing people together. Two, we’ve had the issue or disruption around the startup. Three, property rates are down more than we anticipated, although we thought property rates were gonna go down substantially. And we’ve been saying to you all that we — this is a year later than we anticipated. And finally, it’s the situation in this pharmacy business. So I put those 4 things in there. Those are not excuses. Those are just an observation. And we are very pleased with the team. We’re very pleased with the capabilities that we brought together and how we’re going to market. But at the end of the day, we are at the present time slightly lower than the peers.
R. Andrew Watts
And then, Mike, keep in mind that in, you know, specialty distribution prior to the acquisition of Accession, with is that we did have a higher weighting to cap property in that business because of the programs that we operate there, right? So when capacity was tight a few years ago and rates were tight, that definitely helped drive growth for the overall business. With the addition of 180, as we mentioned in our commentary, that is much more weighted towards casualty, very little cat property in there. So that will probably over time, you’ll see that’ll start to level out some of the peaks and valleys in that business. And again, it’s just something that we try to focus on as an organization of the more diversification that we can put across the company, more stability we can have in our revenues, our margins, and our cash flow.
Michael Zaremski
Helpful. Thank you.
J. Powell Brown
Great. Thank you.
Operator
Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Mark Hughes with Truist Securities. Your line is open.
Mark Hughes
Yeah. Thank you. Good morning. On the organic growth — Good morning. –you’ve talked about sequential improvement. Last quarter you talked about getting to a point for the full year where you’re ahead of of 2025 with a weighting towards the back half of the year. Is that still what we should anticipate or just assume sequential improvement but not to reach or exceed last year?
R. Andrew Watts
Good morning, Mark. Think probably — think about it from a sequential increase over the quarters, knowing that some quarters will be higher Some quarters will be, you know, down because it always obviously moves around back and forth. But we — when we look into kind of the back end of the year, we think organic growth rates should be higher than the first quarter, but, you know, probably an upper bound of 2.5%, somewhere in that ballpark. And you’re just going to — some quarters are going to move around as they always do for us. But we feel really good about at least when we look at the activity and the structure of the organization having the one 180 business coming into organic and specialty distribution in the back end of the year. At least everything gives us, you know, good confidence as to the direction that it’s going.
Mark Hughes
Very good. And then just this — the Howden issue again, you initially called out $23 million, and then that increased modestly, let’s say? To $31 million. When these sort of things happen, does the pace of the potential losses slow as time goes by? So the sequential increase in —
J. Powell Brown
Yeah.
Mark Hughes
2Q would be less than 1Q perhaps?
R. Andrew Watts
Yeah. Maybe, Mark, a couple things to keep in mind, and I’m sure a number of folks have seen this, but, you know, we have a — quite expansive TRO that was issued in Massachusetts back at the end of December, right? And that has very, very tight restrictions. That TRO is still in place today with all of it. And so I think just keep that in mind around, I guess, how you’re thinking about potentially the outlook. Doesn’t mean that the number might not change back and forth.
Mark Hughes
But — So you’re saying the — I guess you’re talking about restraining order. You’re seeing that it’s had an impact. You saw the slowdown in lost business in 1Q, and so therefore maybe the build from here is decelerating, so to speak?
J. Powell Brown
So, Mark, we don’t, as you know, typically talk about ongoing litigation. And there is more going on, not just in that state. And so obviously there are certain things that are filed that you all can look at and you can see what has been, you know, the judge has come forward with and in other states when and if that happens. But we really can’t get into it. So I’d rather just, you know, not say anymore.
Mark Hughes
Okay, very good. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Bob Hung with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Bob Huang
Hi, good morning. So my first question, I want to shift gears a little bit towards employee benefit business. You talked about the fairly solid pricing environment in employee benefit right now. Can you maybe give us like a little bit more color in terms of how you think about the employee benefit business will evolve towards the rest of the year? And then curious how you think about the growth there as a contributor going forward.
J. Powell Brown
So I just want to make sure that I heard the second part. I heard about the growth going forward. What would — Bob, can you repeat that, the first part of that question?
Bob Huang
Yeah. Yes, sir. Sure. Yes. So I just want to ask about a little bit more details around employee benefit. Pricing has been strong based on your disclosures. Just curious about how you think about the employee benefit business going into the rest of the year going forward and how that becomes a contributor.
J. Powell Brown
Yeah. Perfect. Thank you. I just wanted — I thought that’s what you said. Number 1, we like the employee benefits business very much. And we think that it is an opportunity for us to continue to solve what I call complex problems for our customers. That said, the pricing pressure continues to be a challenge on any buyer of health insurance. And so everybody we talk to is looking for ways to, you know, terms like bend the cost curve or moderate or what could they do. And some will even consider skinning down the benefits that their employees are receiving. But we continue to find lots of opportunities for us to help our customers with what is a very complex, expensive coverage that is utilized on a frequent basis. So we view it as a positive. We continue to invest in it. We have a lot of very talented teammates in it. It’s a big part of our retail business and is going to be bigger going forward.
Bob Huang
Okay. No, that’s helpful. Thank you. My second question really revolves around your AI commentaries about the capabilities that you’re adding onto the platform, right? It’s more of a buy versus build question. As you’re investing in AI, just curious your philosophy around it. Acquiring AI capabilities from third-party vendors versus what are the things that you feel it is necessary to kind of maybe develop internally from a codebase perspective? Just curious your thoughts on that.
J. Powell Brown
Sure. So I think there’s really two ways to approach AI in a very broad sense. You can do it internally. And that’s typically where you’re nibbling around the sides. And it takes, it takes longer typically, but it’s probably overall less expensive. Conversely, you decide to partner with some firms that can help you accelerate and make big you know, jumps forward. And I believe that we actually, or at least to this point, but going forward, I believe we will do both. And so we are not at a point where we are going to discuss who those people are, but the answer is we look at it as sort of a combination. And depending on what we are trying to achieve will dictate, you know, what portion of the business and what we’re trying to achieve would probably dictate which way we lean into.
Bob Huang
Okay. Really appreciate it. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Josh Shanker with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Josh Shanker
Yeah. Good evening, everybody, or good morning. It’s been a long day. My first question, you know, the business has evolved a lot, but you’re still a big Florida participant. Can you talk about your pricing, how much Florida is impacting those numbers, and the extent to which there’s a variance between your experience in Florida on pricing and your experience nationwide?
J. Powell Brown
So let me, let me take the second part of the question first. First of all, as a — Josh, as a point of reference, the rates that we’re seeing in coastal property today are similar to those that we saw in 2016 and ’17. So I want you to think about that for just a moment. I don’t remember exactly the year it started going up, but let’s say it was ’18 or ’19, and then it went up for 5 or 6 years, and then it is — it has reduced all of that in a 2-year period, let’s say. That’s the first thing. The second thing is impacts on the pricing is not limited to Florida. You have it also in other cat-prone areas where they’re seeing substantial decreases. Third thing is we are seeing in places around the country which might be defined as cat — I’m talking inland cat, convective storms — we’re seeing more downward pressure there in pricing than the traditional down 5 to up 5. So from a standpoint of the property thing, and by the way, we haven’t been surprised that property is under pressure. We have been surprised at the decrease and the amount of decrease that has occurred. So let me, let me give you an example. If you tell me that you have a condominium in Southeast Florida, and it’s a superior construction, and the rate is below 20 cents, I would tell you that of that 20 cents, 7 to 8 cents of that is the fire rate. Even though it’s in a superior construction building. So that means the rest is all other perils, including wind. That’s pretty unbelievable.
Did you want to address that? Hello?
Josh Shanker
Hello there?
J. Powell Brown
Yeah, we’re here. Can you hear us? Yashi, you there, sir?
Josh Shanker
Oh yeah. And then, all right, so, uh, and, and casualty, you’re not seeing any difference in the Florida market versus, versus the rest of the country?
J. Powell Brown
Not so much. Yeah. No. Uh, and one other question, you know, I’m surprised, I guess, on disclosure, uh, that $25,000 and under is only 1 to 2% of your business. I mean, a $25,000 property policy, that’s a pretty juicy policy.
Josh Shanker
Can you talk a little about the industry and I mean, I don’t have to talk about your competitors, but who’s going after that policy if not Brown Brown?
J. Powell Brown
Well, like I said, there are lots of independent agents in the, in the United States that write lots of business that would be defined as small accounts. So again, from a standpoint of — and they have people that act actively service — I mean, actively go out and solicit them. And what we’re saying is typically our producers are going after accounts that are in excess of that. That’s just the way I want you to think about it.
Josh Shanker
All right. Well, there’s also — there might be an opportunity there, I guess, maybe. Who knows?
J. Powell Brown
Yeah. Okay. Thanks, Josh.
Josh Shanker
Yeah, yeah.
J. Powell Brown
We got to keep rolling. We got a bunch of people in the queue here.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Alex Scott with Barclays. Your line is open.
Alex Scott
Hi, good morning. For the first one, I wanted to ask you about margins. You know, over time it’s been somewhat linked to organic growth and the ability to get margin improvement is a lot better when you’re growing. Just based on what you’re seeing with the potential of AI, does it change the amount of growth that’s that’s needed to still get that margin improvement? Can you talk a bit about how you’re thinking through that over the next few years if we do stay in a softer market here?
J. Powell Brown
Sure. And remember, I think the important thing, Alex, is this. We think that there are opportunities to invest in talented people to help us grow our business going forward. So you can actually underinvest and margins could stay flat or go up. And that’s not how we look at it. And so we’ve said, I know there are other brokers that say you got to have X amount of organic growth in order to have margins go up. We actually would say, depending on the quarter or the time period, that’s different with us. But we, I want to clarify that we are actively looking to continue to invest with high-quality people to help us deliver solutions for our customers. That said, is — there’s absolutely a positive impact from AI and the potential of that going forward.
R. Andrew Watts
And then Alex, the other reason why, you know, we included the additional performance metric of our organic with contingents is that’s another really good metric in order to have a correlation down to margins and EPS. Because I think in the past people have said, well, wait a minute, how can your margins go up if your organic goes down or vice versa? Because the contingents, because they’re a core part of our model, can move the margins around in quarters, okay?
Alex Scott
Yep, got all that, thank you. Next one I had for you is on the revenue opportunities you see from AI. I mean, I think you got into it somewhat, Josh, there, but I mean, is it about specializing? Is it about going down market? And then can you elaborate on any investments that are more concrete that we can think through on how you’re advancing towards some of that?
J. Powell Brown
So like I said, we tried to give you a good peek in the box on the 3 examples that we’ve used. I believe that — and we will talk more about that in the future. But if you think about it, there are lots of people that think about it in the mid and back office efficiency. We don’t view AI as a teammate replacement tool. That’s number one. Number two, we absolutely believe it improves the customer experience. And we talked a little bit about that as it relates to 25% of the stuff in specialty distribution going through and routing, which makes us more efficient. And, and then number three, it helps us identify growth opportunities with new or existing customers. And so what I would say is that’s — we’ve kind of laid out what we want to talk about today. And as we move further into the year, we’ll bring more information to you on that. But we feel positive about our steps we’ve put in place in terms of our AI journey.
Alex Scott
Got it. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question comes from the line of Maya Shields with Keith Rietan Woods. Your line is open.
Meyer Shields
Great. Thanks so much and good morning. One question on the Howden revenues. Is that $31 million of annualized revenues still all employee benefits? No.
Okay. Thanks. Go ahead.
J. Powell Brown
I’m sorry. I don’t mean to cut you off. No, go ahead. Okay. This is unrelated question, but I think we’re probably like within spitting distance of seeing pricing on June property renewals because it’s less than 90 days out. And I’m wondering, there’s this thesis that the rate decreases on cap property will slow down once we’ve gone through a full renewal cycle. And I’m wondering whether you’re seeing any of that. I haven’t seen that yet.
Meyer Shields
Okay. And then final question.
Are the higher state tax rates likely to be an issue for coming quarters?
R. Andrew Watts
Sorry, one more time on that. You broke up.
Meyer Shields
Sorry. You mentioned some higher state tax rates as a factor in the quarter, and I’m wondering whether we should expect that to persist. In the rest of 2026.
R. Andrew Watts
Oh, yeah, that’s probably fair to include that, Mayor.
Meyer Shields
Great. Thanks so much.
Operator
Thank you. Please stand by for our next question. Our next question comes from the line of Pablo Cingzon with JPMorgan. Your line is open.
Pablo S. Singzon
Hi. Thank you. Given your commentary about 2Q being a heavier property quarter, would it be reasonable to think about some sequential deterioration organic ex contingents, or do you think your comments about the cadence of quarterly improvement holds? Thanks.
J. Powell Brown
We believe what we said holds true.
Pablo S. Singzon
Okay. Thank you. And then this one’s not related to the quarter, but Wright Flood is one of your larger businesses within specialty. Do you have any perspective in how your position as the government is contemplating potential changes to the NFIP that might push business into the private market? Thank you.
J. Powell Brown
Sure. I think, uh, first of all, we’re — we like that business, and, uh, Wright has been very successful. Uh, as you know, the government has had a hard time reauthorizing for any extended period of time, and they’re on multiple extensions. And so the answer is The government would like to see more depopulated, but I don’t believe that the private market will absorb the areas in the worst flood zones. So it’s all relative. So don’t, don’t allow somebody that says we’re gonna, we’re writing private flood to lead you to believe that they’re writing that in downtown New Orleans. I think that’s a very important distinction. So we believe, and we have private flood capabilities, we’ve invested in that, we have all kinds of opportunities to go along with that, both on an FIP and on the private side. But remember, the carriers are not gonna want to desire to go into areas that flood on a regular and consistent basis.
Pablo S. Singzon
Okay.
R. Andrew Watts
Tawanda, we’ve got — we’re going to go until 2:15, so we’ve got 10 minutes, and we’ve got, I think, 2 or 3 people to get through. So if, again, we try to get through each person in about 2 or 3 minutes, please.
Pablo S. Singzon
All right.
Operator
Our next question comes from Alana Yarin Canar with Mizzou. Your line is open. Thank you.
Yaron Kinar
Good morning. Two quick ones on AI. First, there is a school of thought that says, look, most of the value in the P&C ecosystem falls to the brokers. And as such, maybe AI creates an opportunity for the insurers to take some of that value back. How do you think about that? How do you respond to that?
J. Powell Brown
You’re saying the insureds or the insurers? I want to make sure I heard you correctly. Who takes the value back? The insurers. Yeah, I got it. Actually, I actually would counter that. They do in some instances have a direct model on the very simplistic, not complex, not customized commercial risks. So I think that will continue, but I actually think anytime there’s complexity, that leans much more in the favor of the brokerage community. So I actually would not agree with that statement.
Yaron Kinar
Got it. Thank you. And then the second one on AI, and maybe going back to Josh’s question with the $25,000 or less in annual premiums, given that that slice of the market tends to go more to the smaller independent agencies, does that impact your appetite for smaller tuck-in M&A over the long run?
J. Powell Brown
Depends on those businesses, and we have to evaluate that on a, on a constant and consistent basis going forward. We like small and medium-sized tuck-in M&A, but we want to understand exactly what they’ve got in there and then how we would service it and continue to add additional value. Here’s the one thing that I want to raise that I, I think is important. AI disintermediates tasks. AI does not disintermediate trust. And so our business is built on trust. And good advice. And so when people are spending, depends on, you know, I would ask you rhetorically, at what point, what is the largest purchase you’ve made on the internet ever without ever talking to someone or having engagement? Many people say it’s a television or a pair of golf clubs. But let’s say you bought a car. I made that up, right? A used car or something. Okay. But many people want to talk to somebody and have the advice. And this is not, as you know, you know, just a product. There is — this is a complex intangible sale. So just something to think about. I know you knew that, but let’s take the next question. Thanks, Yaron.
Yaron Kinar
Thank you.
Operator
All right, one moment. Our next question comes from the line of Bryant Meredith with UBS. Your line is open.
Brian Meredith
Yeah, thanks. Two quick ones here. First on AI PAL, do you think it has any effect on kind of long-term commission rates or what you charge your clients given the productivity benefits you’re likely to see from it?
J. Powell Brown
I don’t like to say never or always. But I actually think that if you look at the way the risk-bearing community is looking to grow and people are trying to come to market, as evidenced by reinsurance companies trying to get into the insurance business and get closer to the market, I believe that there is possible, but I I don’t think it’s highly probable.
R. Andrew Watts
Right. Hey, Brian. Yeah. Hey, Brian, just — and one other piece on that I think maybe that folks aren’t always keeping in mind is there’s the presumption that the cost of technology will not go up.
J. Powell Brown
Yeah.
R. Andrew Watts
And so, don’t know what that will actually look like in the future, but do we expect our overall cost of technology to go up as a result of implementing all these capabilities? Yeah, it probably will.
J. Powell Brown
We will.
Brian Meredith
Makes sense. And then second question, just quickly on Ascension here. It looks like the revenues were kind of flattish on a year-over-year basis. How are you thinking about Ascension as you kind of look in the second half of the year on your kind of organic revenue growth improving? Maybe I’ve got that wrong.
R. Andrew Watts
No, I think split it into 2 pieces. Is one, overall, we feel good about the business. As we mentioned in our commentary, we see that the 180 business, as it rolls into organic in the back end of the year, will be contributory to the organic in Specialty Distribution. And then the overall risk strategies business is performing relatively similar to the others. So it’s probably not going to have any major movement movements either direction just because of the pure size of it.
Brian Meredith
Great. Thank you.
J. Powell Brown
Yeah. Thank you.
Operator
All right. Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, I’m showing no further questions in the queue. I would now like to turn the call back over to Paul for closing remarks.
J. Powell Brown
Thank you, Tawanda, and thank you all for your time today. We look forward to talking to you next quarter. Good day.
Operator
Ladies and gentlemen, that concludes today’s conference call. Thank you for your participation. You may now