When Carnival Corporation (NYSE: CCL) reports its fourth-quarter results on Friday, investors will be closely watching demand trends, pricing, and cost discipline, following a year marked by operational recovery. The company, which owns some of the biggest cruise brands, is benefiting from strong onboard spending and improving capacity utilization.
Estimates
The company is set to publish its fourth-quarter results on Friday, December 19, at 9:15 am ET. On average, analysts following the business project adjusted earnings of $0.25 per share for the fourth quarter, which represents a sharp increase from $0.14 per share in Q4 2024. The forecast is slightly above the management’s latest earnings guidance for Q4. The consensus revenue estimate for the latest quarter is $6.38 billion, compared to $5.94 billion in the corresponding period last year.
Notably, Carnival’s quarterly revenues and earnings have consistently beaten estimates over the past three years. For the stock, 2025 was a pivotal year as it maintained a steady upward momentum, despite occasional pull-backs, hitting a multi-year high in September. CCL has grown a whopping 21% in the past six months. Given the steady growth in bookings, particularly for the core Carnival Cruise Line business, and positive outlook for the broader cruise industry, the company appears to have the potential to enhance shareholder value.
Positive Outcome
In the third quarter, Carnival’s revenues increased to $8.2 billion from $7.9 billion in the same period a year ago. The top line growth translated into a 13% year-over-year increase in adjusted earnings to $1.43 per share. Unadjusted net income rose to an all-time high of $1.85 billion or $1.33 per share in the August quarter from $1.73 billion or $1.26 per share in Q3 2024. Both earnings and revenues topped Wall Street’s expectations. The company said it expects adjusted earnings of $2.14 per share for fiscal 2025.
From Carnival’s Q3 2025 Earnings Call:
“As we highlighted on our last call, Carnival Cruise Line’s new loyalty program, Carnival Rewards, will start in June 2026, impacting results for the second half of the year. As a reminder, while the program will be cash flow positive from day one, it does impact our yields in 2026. The year-over-year impact is expected to be about half a point. It should also be noted that we do not anticipate any meaningful impact on costs from the new loyalty program when compared to the current program. Our game-changing destination Celebration Key, which opened in July 2025, has been delivering an amazing guest experience.”
Rough Waters?
Elevated fuel costs, along with broader macroeconomic uncertainties, have been a drag on Carnival’s margin performance. However, the bottom line is expected to benefit from the management’s cost-cutting initiatives, such as operating only fuel-efficient ships. The company is actively expanding its fleet and introducing new destinations, while remodeling existing ships with new features and passenger experience.
The average price of Carnival’s stock in the past twelve months is $25.68. Extending the recent momentum, the shares traded higher in the early hours of Wednesday’s session.