Note: This is a preliminary transcript and may contain inaccuracies. It will be updated with a final, fully-reviewed version soon.
CenterPoint Energy, Inc (NYSE: CNP) Q1 2026 Earnings Call dated Apr. 23, 2026
Corporate Participants:
Ben Vallejo — Vice President of Investigations and Corporate Planning
Jason Wells — Chair and Chief Executive Officer
Chris Foster — Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Andrew Lyntel — Analyst
Shahar Pereza — Analyst
Steve Fleishman — Analyst
Richard Sunderland — Analyst
Jeremy Tunnett — Analyst
Bill Epstelli — Analyst
Anthony Crowdell — Analyst
Presentation:
Andrew Lyntel — Analyst
Sam. Sa. Sa.
Operator
Good morning and welcome to CenterPoint Energy’s first quarter 2026 earnings conference call with senior management. During the Company’s prepared remarks, all participants will be in a listen only mode. There will be a question and answer session after Management’s remarks. To ask a question, please press star 11 on your touch phone keypad. I will now turn the call over to Ben Vallejo, Vice President of Investigations and Corporate Planning. Please go ahead
Ben Vallejo — Vice President of Investigations and Corporate Planning
Good morning and welcome to CenterPoint’s Q1 2026 earnings conference call. Jason Wells, our Chair and CEO, and Chris Foster, our CFO, will discuss the company’s first quarter 2026 results. Management will discuss certain topics that will contain projections and other forward looking information and statements that are based on management’s beliefs, assumptions and information currently available to management. These forward looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties. Actual results could differ materially based on various factors.
As noted in our Form 10QA, other SEC filings and our earnings materials, we undertake no obligation to revise or update publicly any forward looking statement other than as required under applicable securities laws. We reported $0.48 per diluted share for the first quarter of 2026 on a GAAP basis. Management will be discussing certain non GAAP measures. On today’s call when providing guidance, we use the non GAAP EPS measure of diluted adjusted earnings per share on a consolidated basis referred to as non GAAP eps.
For information on our guidance methodology and reconciliation of the non GAAP measures used in providing guidance, please refer to our earnings news release and presentation on our website. We use our website to announce material information. This call is being recorded. Information on how to access the replay can be found on our website. Now I’d like to turn it over to Jason.
Jason Wells — Chair and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you Ben and good morning everyone. On today’s call, I’d like to address four key areas of focus for the quarter. First, I’ll walk through our strong first quarter financial results. Second, I’ll provide an update on our load outlook for Houston Electric, including yet another significant increase in our firmly committed load forecast to 12.2 gigawatts of new industrial load. Third, I will cover how our continued and accelerating growth in the Greater Houston area can provide incremental capital investment opportunities and further support customer affordability.
And lastly, I’ll touch on our growing optimism for transformational low growth opportunities for our Indiana Electric Service territory which would similarly provide for incremental capital investment and support customer affordability. I will start with our strong first quarter financial results. This morning we reported non GAAP EPS of $0.56 for the first quarter of 2026. Chris will walk through the details of these results, but I want to highlight that our execution through the first quarter positions U.S.
Well for the remainder of the year. With that said, we are reiterating our full year 2026 non GAAP EPS guidance of $1.89 to $1.91, which at the midpoint would represent 8% growth over actual 2025 delivered results. As a reminder, we rebase our long term earnings guidance from each year’s actual results. This approach provides our investors with the direct benefit from compounding effect of the earnings we have consistently delivered. In addition, this approach helps contribute to the durability of our earnings profile, underscoring our commitment to delivering value through disciplined execution and sustained growth each and every year.
Over the long term, we continue to expect to grow non GAAP EPS at the mid to high end of our 7 to 9% annual guidance range through 2028 and 7 to 9% annually thereafter through 2035. I would now like to provide an update on the accelerating growth our Houston Electric business continues to experience and our strong execution which enables us to take advantage of the growth in the near term. As we shared on the fourth quarter call, we have meaningfully accelerated our load growth outlook, bringing forward our forecast for a 50% increase in peak demand by a full two years.
Our conviction in that accelerating timeline was grounded in seven and a half gigawatts of firmly committed load that we expected to be energized by 2029, including 2 1/2 gigawatts that was already under construction as of our last update. Since then we have made significant progress in executing against our prior forecast while adding additional customers. As a result, we now have clear line of sight to 12.2 gigawatts of firmly committed load with the team’s disciplined execution. We have already secured ercot approval for 3.2 gigawatts of this load.
Two and a half gigawatts was approved since our last earnings call alone and within less than 80 days of filing for approval. We expect to submit the remaining 9 gigawatts of projects to ERCOT for approval within the next few weeks. Importantly, this firmly committed load is highly diversified, spanning more than a dozen unique customers across nearly 20 distinct projects. We believe these projects are manageable in size with 90% representing half a gigawatt of demand or less. That, along with our utilization of existing capacity and our customer selection of project sites near substation, allows for quick and efficient interconnections Our focused execution over the last few months has also provided us with a clear path to energization.
Notably, we are positioned to energize approximately 8 gigawatts of this firmly committed load by 2029, which is 80% of our 10 gigawatt increase we originally forecasted to be energized by the end of 2031. This diversified growth and economic development has another key benefit to the Greater Houston area, which helps us keep electricity delivery charges affordable. The Greater Houston area is no longer an emerging destination to site new data centers. It is now firmly established as a location of choice for some of the world’s largest hyperscalers and developers.
However, this is only one facet of Houston’s multidimensional growth. The region’s growth is being propelled by significant investments in life sciences, energy, energy exports and advanced manufacturing. With this growth comes new jobs and an influx of new residents which has fueled the 2% annual residential growth the area has experienced for the last few decades. The expansion of the economy and increase in population have significant affordability benefits for our customers. Notably, we expect that utilizing 10 gigawatts of existing system capacity could provide approximately $4 billion in aggregate savings for Texas residential and commercial customers over the next 10 years, supporting affordability and creating headroom for future customer driven investments.
This affordability profile is one that very few areas in the country can offer as our charges are 11% below the national average and the lowest in ERCOT. Looking ahead, we believe this growth will continue for years to come, requiring the further expansion of our system to support growth beyond the near term. We are making steady progress on a refresh load study that will inform our transmission planning process and we expect to complete the study later this year in Indiana. We are increasingly confident in our ability to secure potentially transformational opportunities to support local economic growth and address affordability.
We continue to make considerable progress in our conversations with a large load customer on a project that would represent our single largest load in our Southern Indiana service territory with substantial upside for additional growth. Beyond the significant economic development benefits this opportunity would bring to the local community, it represents a powerful lever to enhance affordability for our customers. We estimate that this initial incremental load could enable $250 million in savings for residential customers over 15 years, meaningfully reducing customer bills with the opportunity for even greater savings as potential upside for growth materializes.
In closing, we continue to believe we have one of the most tangible and executable long term growth plans in the industry. We are uniquely positioned to move at the speed of business to execute on near term customer driven opportunities while also delivering our service affordably. We are laser focused on making longer term investments to enhance growth across all of our service territories while also improving customer outcomes. With that, I’ll turn it over to Chris to cover the financials in more detail.
Chris Foster — Chief Financial Officer
Thanks Jason. This morning I will cover four areas of focus. First, the details of our strong first quarter financial results and how they position us for the rest of the year. Second, I will provide a brief regulatory update in our progress with respect to timely recovery of our capital investments through the filing of our interim capital trackers. Third, I will touch on our planned capital deployment in 2026 which is right on track as we target to invest $6.8 billion this year for the benefit of our customers and communities.
And finally, I will provide an update on our derisked financing plan, balance sheet health and credit metrics now starting with our strong financial results on slide 6. On a GAAP EPS basis we reported 48 cents for the first quarter of 2026. On a non GAAP EPS basis we reported 56 cents for the quarter. Our non GAAP EPS excludes the impacts from the tax gain and other expenses related to the sale of our Ohio LDC which is on track to close in the fourth quarter of this year. In addition, we continue to exclude the impacts of removing our temporary generation units from base rates as they are no longer part of our regulated utility business.
As a reminder, we expect to start marketing these units for either a sublease or sale later this year in anticipation of getting those units back no later than spring of next year. Taking a closer look at the Drivers of our first quarter earnings growth and rate recovery contributed $0.11 when compared to the same quarter last year driven by a full quarter impact of updated rates reflecting the interim filing mechanisms that went into effect late last year. Weather and usage were $0.02 unfavorable when compared to the comparable quarter last year driven by milder weather across our Texas and Indiana service territories.
Additionally, higher interest expense was $0.04 unfavorable, reflecting new issuances slightly offset by lower commercial paper balances and favorable pricing on the convertible debt we issued during the quarter. OM was flat for the quarter as we continue to accelerate our peer leading vegetation management program to enhance the customer experience and improve customer outcomes during severe weather events. Lastly, the absence of earnings from our Louisiana and Mississippi businesses post divestiture resulted in $0.05 of unfavorability when compared to the first quarter of 2025.
The divested rate base has already been replaced by the acceleration of investments in our Texas businesses. These results reinforce our confidence in delivering on Our full year 2026 non GAAP EPS guidance range of $1.89 to $1.91. The accelerated growth that Jason highlighted and the work we’ve done to derisk our financing needs and more efficiently execute are additional tailwinds that further position us well to deliver and could continue to provide upside as we move through the year. Over the long term, we continue to expect to grow non GAAP EPS at the mid to high end of our 7 to 9% long term annual guidance range through 2028 and 7 to 9% annually thereafter through 2035.
Now turning to a broader regulatory update As a reminder, we continue to recover approximately 85% of our investments through capital trackers, several of which we filed this quarter. I’ll start with Houston Electric. In February, we submitted the first of our two permitted filings of our distribution capital recovery factor, or DCRF, and our transmission cost of service tracker, or TCOs. The DCRF filing requested a revenue requirement increase of approximately $108 million capturing incremental distribution investments over the last six months.
I’m pleased to share that we entered into a settlement agreement earlier this month and requested new rates to be effective in June ahead of our planned timing. The TCOS filing requested a revenue requirement increase of approximately $36 million incorporating transmission investments made between July and December of last year. During this quarter, the filing was approved and new rates went into effect just last week. Turning now to Texas Gas in February we also filed our Annual Capital Investment Recovery Mechanism, or GRIP, requesting a revenue requirement increase of approximately $62 million, capturing capital investments made through 2025.
Pending approval, we expect these investments to be reflected in customer rates in June. Lastly, as a reminder, we plan to file rate case applications for our gas businesses in Minnesota and Indiana later this year, which in the aggregate represent less than 20% of the earnings power of our consolidated base. Next, I will touch on our continued execution against our planned capital investments for 2026. As shown on slide 7, we invested $1.2 billion in the first quarter for the benefit of our customers and communities.
The quantum of capital deployed in the first quarter is consistent with the seasonal timing of our capital plan as we expect larger construction and resiliency projects to ramp throughout the year. In short, we remain firmly on track to execute the $6.8 billion of planned work this year as we continue to make investments to strengthen our system, improve customer outcomes, and build the most resilient coastal grid and safest gas systems in the nation. Beyond our base 10 year $65.5 billion plan, we will continue to fold in the over $10 billion of incremental capital investment opportunities as we gain better clarity on project costs currently embedded in our plan as well as line of sight to new projects required to meet the unprecedented load growth across our service territories.
And in addition, we’ll potentially discover more capital investment opportunities as we refresh our transmission planning later this year, which we are targeting to complete in the second half of this year. These additional investments will continue to provide upside to our over $65 billion base plan through 2035, further increasing the earnings power of the company. Lastly, I want to touch on our credit metrics and balance sheet. As of the end of the first quarter, our adjusted FFO to debt ratio based on Moody’s rating methodology was 12.5%.
This metric reflects temporary timing pressure from opportunistically pulling forward planned debt issuances in the quarter to take advantage of attractive market conditions as that capital is deployed and financing normalizes. We expect this impact to reverse over the course of the year and as a reminder, we expect to end the year at the high end of our targeted cushion in light of the corporate AMT revised guidance. Importantly, we have filed for a refund of some of the previous paid cash taxes and expect to receive a refund later this year.
We expect to incorporate the impacts of this favorable guidance into our financing plan later this year. Overall, from a financing standpoint, we have completed nearly 70% of our Plan 2026 financing needs significantly de risking this year’s financing plan. I also want to highlight that the $650 million convertible debt issuances we executed in February has allowed us to reduce near term exposure to floating interest rates. I would like to highlight that our commercial paper balance at the parent at the end of the first quarter was zero compared to our normal average balance of approximately $1 billion.
In summary, we are confident in our ability to execute in the near term and beyond. Given the de risk nature of our plan, we are reiterating our 2026 non GAAP earnings guidance targeting at least the midpoint of $1.89 to $1.91 at the midpoint. This would represent an 8% increase over 2025 delivered results. Looking ahead, we expect to grow non GAAP EPS at the mid to high end of our 7 to 9% range from 2026 through 2028 and over the long term we expect to grow non GAAP EPS at 7 to 9% annually through 2035.
We remain committed to investing to improve customer outcomes and enabling growth across the states that we have the privilege to serve. And with that, I’ll now turn the call over to Jason.
Jason Wells — Chair and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Chris. In closing with our focus on disciplined execution, we have made meaningful progress in enabling more growth faster, particularly in our Houston and Indiana electric service territories. We believe that our ability to attract and serve large load customers will unlock the potential to transform the communities we have the privilege to serve. This growth, combined with our delivery of strong and consistent results in our proactive efforts to significantly derisk our regulatory profile and financing plan increases our conviction that we have one of the most compelling affordability profiles and one of the most tangible and executable long term growth plans in the industry.
Ben Vallejo — Vice President of Investigations and Corporate Planning
Thank you, Jason. Operator, I’d now like to turn it over for Q and A.
Questions and Answers:
Operator
Thank you. At this time we will begin taking questions. If you wish to ask a question, please press star11 on your touchtone keypad. The company requests that when asking a question, callers pick up their telephone handsets. Thank you. Please stand by while we compile the Kennedy roster. Now, first question coming from the line of Shahar Pereza with Wells Fargo Security. Tail line is now open.
Shahar Pereza
Hey guys, good morning.
Jason Wells
Morning sir.
Shahar Pereza
Morning. Just first, Jason, there’s obviously more specificity around the Houston Electric load including the 12 gigs of firmly committed demand and the 8 gigs of data center load expected online by 29. Can you just help us bridge how much of that committed load is already embedded in the current plan versus what could represent incremental upside? And of the projects not embedded, I guess what are the gating items to include it in plan? Thanks.
Jason Wells
Yeah, thanks for the question Char. You know the model in ERCOT is a little bit different than the rest of the country. We just provide transmission and distribution service. From a CAPEX standpoint, the incremental system modifications, switch yard and substations that are needed to connect these customers timely are paid for by the large load customer. So I wouldn’t look at this as necessarily a direct impact to the capex plan. There are two though tailwinds to the financial plan that I think are important.
The first is despite the fact that there is not significant capex, again the customer is paying for the modifications in the interconnection. It does represent a significant amount of incremental demand charges. Probably the way to think about this is it’s about for every 1 gigawatt of industrial load that we add to our System, it’s about $6 million a month of incremental demand charges.
Shahar Pereza
So
Jason Wells
That provides a pretty significant tailwind, both from an earnings standpoint, but also a customer affordability benefit. And then indirectly related to CapEx is the need to replace that capacity on the system. And that’s what we’ve been highlighting in terms of the transmission study that we are actively working through right now that will result in the second half of this year in incremental projects to effectively replace the capacity and make sure the system is able to accommodate future load growth.
So again, I wouldn’t think about the 12 gigawatts of firmly committed load is directly driving CAPEX. What it does is it directly drives demand charges that are outside of the plan. So that’s a tailwind from an earnings and an affordability standpoint. And then indirectly supports the need for future CapEx that we will roll into the plan later this year.
Shahar Pereza
Got it, got it. And then just maybe just kind of correlated to the first question Just with ERCOT’s new preliminary long term forecast, it projects now like 200 of total demand by 29 and 368 by 2032. But both obviously ERCOT and PCT have indicated that those forecasts likely overstate, I guess. Remind us how you’re using this kind of in your planning process and should we think about it as mostly supportive of Houston’s growth or as something that could ultimately drive incremental wires investment above what is already embedded in your current plan through 29?
Thanks.
Jason Wells
Yeah, yeah. You know, as we’ve highlighted on previous calls and what you’ve seen in our ERCOT submissions, we are much more disciplined in terms of load that we submit to ERCOT for planning purposes. The load that we submitted to ERCOT in this most recent study was effectively consistent with the load that we have under construction. We submitted about 3.6 gigawatts and as we’re reporting today, we have three and a half that were actively under construction. In terms of committing, we will be filing with ercat, as I said, another nine gigs in the coming couple of weeks.
From a CAPEX standpoint, again, I think the real opportunity here is replacing the capacity for future growth. And so in the second half of this year you’ll see an update from us where we articulate the new projects that will be needed to support future growth, the dollars associated with those. And then I think this continues to be a tailwind for the continued build out of the 765kV system on what I would call more of a medium term, longer term opportunity. So again, the growth is fantastic in the fact that, you know, it provides significant customer affordability benefits by effectively spreading the fixed cost of our system out over a much larger customer base.
Provides near term opportunities for earnings for incremental demand charges and then sets us up for incremental transmission projects that likely will need to be executed before the end of the decade and again supports the build out of the 765kV system early into the next.
Shahar Pereza
Got it. That’s perfect. Thanks guys. See you in a couple of weeks. Appreciate it.
Jason Wells
Sounds good. Thanks Sharon.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Steve Fleishman with Wolf Research, Yellen is now open.
Steve Fleishman
Yeah, hi, good morning Steve. Just wanted to go to the commentary on Indiana and sounds like things are maybe getting closer there. Could you talk to, I think you’ve talked in the past about the potential to turn your CT into a ccgt and I don’t know if there’s other investments. If you were to land this customer, could you give us some sense of the investment opportunity there both physically and then also in dollars?
Jason Wells
Yep, absolutely. Good morning Steve. Happy to provide that color. You know, so if you’ve looked at the misoq, we have a transmission project that we filed for to provide incremental capacity in that region and in our integrated resource plan filing that we, that we recently filed with the commission, we’ve got a scenario that supports the, you know, the potential for a large load customer effectively. We’ve got existing capacity in our system today. We can enhance that with the new transmission investments that are articulated in that misoq.
We can also then as you mentioned, provide incremental capacity by converting our simple cycle to a combined cycle facility up there. All of that unlocks at least 1 1/2 gigawatts of incremental capacity for a large load customer. Because we have existing capacity because we have the simple cycle plant already built. I would think about this as more around about a billion dollar opportunity as opposed to several billion dollars, you know, just to put some scale around the incremental capex. Again this is I think an incredible opportunity for our customers up in that region.
It allows us to provide customer affordability benefits that will be significant. It will provide incremental earnings from those sales and it will provide tailwinds around about a billion dollars of incremental capex. Outside of that initial one and a half gigs, we are continuing to evaluate the opportunity to support future large load growth or large load customers and that could result in even more incremental capex down the road.
Steve Fleishman
Would the billion opportunity be kind of by 2030 or after 2030?
Jason Wells
Oh, no, no, this is all. Yeah, definitely within 27, 28, 29.
Steve Fleishman
And then I guess just on the. Just want to clarify in the ercot. So you know that number that we got from ERCOT last week on demand, that huge number, what the numbers that you have for your region territory within that, they’re consistent with what we heard today, or is there like a bigger number based on however they asked the data to be given to them that matches up with their total number.
Jason Wells
Our total submission as part of that process for large loads was roughly 4 gigawatts that was included in those reported tables outside of and that was effectively the large load customers that we were currently and actively constructing transmission modifications, interconnection facilities outside of the number that was picked up in that table. We also filed a large load study that incorporated continued residential growth, the potential for large load customers, and that was a little bit more than 11 gigawatts.
Those weren’t picked up in ERCOT’s numbers, but were filed with ERCOT today. What we’re doing is updating those numbers. So this is in excess of what ERCOT just reported. We felt that given the methodology that ERCOT asked us to submit the customers that the 9 gigawatts that we will be filing for in a couple of weeks didn’t meet that criteria back earlier this year. But if certainly we made a significant amount of progress in these 9 gigawatts that we will be filing in the coming weeks, meet all of the related commitments under the batching process for ercot and we feel confident our, you know, committed load, formerly committed load customers.
So this is an incremental amount to what was reported by ercot.
Steve Fleishman
Great, thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Richard Sunderland with True Securities, Elon, is now open.
Richard Sunderland
Hey, good morning.
Jason Wells
Good morning.
Richard Sunderland
Thanks for the time today. Just circling back to this transmission commentary. I want to understand what you’re studying for that 2H update. It sounds like if I was following you earlier, that the transmission need is all this decade. Could you maybe frame what’s in flight now and what it’s doing for capacity that’s being utilized by this new load and what that might mean for this next batch of transmission out of the study. I’m just trying to think about total dollars that might come this decade that aren’t reflected in the plan right now.
Thank you.
Jason Wells
You know, as we’ve been talking about on previous earnings calls, we think probably the most important Aspect to focus on for large load is existing hosting capacity. These large load customers need to connect and any power timely for us. We have existing capacity on our system of roughly 10 gigawatts. We also have about 9 gigawatts of generation that wants to connect. This is in the process of connecting to our system here in Houston. We’re using that capacity to satisfy those customers that we talked about today.
Part of the transmission plan that we have outlined in our 65 billion includes projects to make sure that we have the existing capacity where we need it. So think about that as sort of like intra regional investments to move power around the greater Houston region. Also in the 65 plus billion dollar capex plan we have increased import capacity primarily through the 765kV lines that really will start to come online in 31 and 32. And so this transmission study that we’ve been alluding to really seeks to kind of fill a gap around 29, 30 and 31 where we see existing capacity being exhausted.
And before that those new 765kV projects provide incremental import capacity. So again it will be increasing our capacity at the tail end of this decade. And then there will be incremental projects to move this load around the Houston region to where it’s needed. And there will likely be system stability investments to make sure that the system can accommodate the number of large load customers that are being proposed here. So it should be a fairly significant set of new transmission projects that we’ll be able to highlight in the second half of this year.
Richard Sunderland
Understood, that’s very helpful commentary. And then I realize mobilegen was briefly referenced in the script, but just thinking high level here with all of this load commentary you’ve been offering today, where are you thinking about the market opportunity around those units as it stands now versus say a year ago?
Chris Foster
Sure. Good morning. We are in the market actually on the some of the smaller units at this stage and already seeing very strong market receptivity. As you can imagine when we first took these units under lease, this was back in 2021. So you can, you can imagine just how much the demand has changed since then. So we’re really seeing directionally almost double the original lease rates that we had in place. So a way to think about this at a high level for those larger units. As you know, those are currently serving the San Antonio area at this stage.
The back end date of when they return to the company for when we could start to market those units would be by the end of March 2027. So at this point, our focus would be on getting ready, being prepared ahead of that to make sure that we can take advantage of what would probably be some cash upside to the company’s plan.
Richard Sunderland
Great. Thank you so much.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Jeremy Tunnett with JP Morgan. Your line is now open.
Jeremy Tunnett
Hi, good morning.
Jason Wells
Good morning.
Jeremy Tunnett
Thanks for all the color today. Just wanted to kind of go to the credit side if I could. I was just wondering if you might be able to expand a bit more on the timing of the trajectory of the credit metrics here and how you expect to exit 26 at this time.
Chris Foster
Sure thing. Good morning. This is purely Germany, a function of timing. So we’re still highly confident that we will end the year at the high end of the cushion that we talk about relative to the Moody’s methodology. So that’s 150 basis points of cushion. And so the why behind that is a couple of things. First, from a timing perspective, we pulled forward a substantial amount of debt issuances in the plan. So now we’ve got 70% of our Plan 2026 financing needs taken care of. The other attribute I would remind you of is just that the just before our prior earnings call, there was a Treasury related announcement associated with the corporate alternative minimum tax.
And there there’s a very good outcome. Right. We’ll have the opportunity to no longer be a cash taxpayer, which was previously on the order of roughly $150 million a year. So we’ll get that benefit right in the form of a refund that will occur here in the next few months. Beyond that, what I think is also less appreciated is that we will also pursue some prior period recoveries which would allow for even more cash improvement once we seek those refunds. So those elements really give us good confidence that at year end, again, we will be at the high end of that range.
Jeremy Tunnett
Got it. That’s very helpful. And just wanted to expand the conversation a little bit. A lot has been talked about data centers here, but just wondering, I guess if you could talk a bit more on traditional large load drivers in the Gulf coast and Houston area and I guess maybe how you see that trending.
Jason Wells
Absolutely. Look, I think a lot of this has been oriented to data centers, but really when we talk about the large load customer updates today, it includes both advanced manufacturing and data centers. As you know, as we’ve talked about on previous calls, Houston is becoming kind of an epicenter for advanced manufacturing, basically manufacturing almost the entirety of the equipment except for the chips that are Going into these data centers. There’s also advanced manufacturing on the life sciences front.
These types of facilities are heavy users of electricity and power. They themselves run their own data centers to tune their advanced manufacturing facilities. And so while it’s not data centers for the market, they’re heavy users of electricity for their function. So we see this growth really driven again by advanced manufacturing data centers. We continue to see significant activity on the energy and energy export side of things. Really, I want to continue to underscore, I think the diversity of economic and load growth drivers is really what sets this region apart.
We don’t see any slowdown in any of the large industries that are driving and propelling Houston’s economic development.
Jeremy Tunnett
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Bill Epstelli with ubs. The ALN is now open.
Bill Epstelli
Hi, good morning.
Jason Wells
Good morning.
Bill Epstelli
Just a question on the batch study review process at ercot and maybe you could just expand on how the firm load commitments you guys have fit within that framework that they’ve, you know, are in the process of reviewing.
Jason Wells
So as I mentioned, we’ve got about 3.2 gigawatts already approved through the ERCOT process that will likely show and qualify for the baseline concept. The 9 gigawatts that we’re filing for will likely qualify for batch zero. There’s effectively two load studies that we have to have approved by ERCOT to qualify for batch zero. One of those two need to be approved, the steady state load study. We’re on track to have those submitted to ERCOT in a time period that would allow ERCOT to again approve those to be included in batch zero.
As I’ve mentioned, we have had very successful approvals of our previous submissions, anywhere from 55 days to just under 80 days. So outside of kind of the interconnection and load studies that are required, you know, the customers here have the land, they’re prepared and ready to pay, you know, all of the associated fees. We have the equipment, all of the long lead time equipment in particular for us. This is, you know, the high voltage breakers and transformers. So customers that will actually utilize the power are signed up.
And so these meet all of the definitions that are going to be required to be either a baseline or back zero customer.
Bill Epstelli
Okay. And then shifting gears a little bit, I mean, what are you guys seeing in terms of the penetration of battery storage in your service territory and what kind of impact is that having from your view? I know you realize that you’re responsible for on the TD side, but just curious, you’ve seen a big uptick in storage in ERCOT broadly. And so just curious from your perspective what the impacts are and the outlook there.
Jason Wells
It has been, I mean, and you know, the numbers, a significant level of battery investment in the state that has all but sort of changed the summer peak pricing in the ERCOT market. And batteries have helped really kind of smooth that summer peak demand. What we see kind of going forward, as I mentioned from our vantage point, we’ve got about 9 gigawatts of incremental generation that is connecting to our system here in Greater Houston region and that is largely solar and batteries almost exclusively.
We continue to see a high degree of interest for the solar projects in particular to qualify for the tax credits before they expire. As a result, many of most of these projects are co locating batteries. And so we continue to see batteries as, you know, effectively a tailwind to keeping energy costs low for customers for at least the next couple of years. And then we know that there are some incremental gas development that will really help after the tax credits expire. And potentially we see sort of a slowdown in the solar and battery build out as we approach sort of the end of the decade.
So we believe that strongly the generation is going to be there for this growth. Batteries are going to help moderate the cost of electricity for customers. We continue to see a robust pipeline connecting to the system over the next two years.
Bill Epstelli
Okay, great. Thank you for that.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question coming from the line of Julian Demone Smith with Jeffries. Your line is open.
Bill Epstelli
Hi, good morning.
Operator
Julian Yelan is open. Okay, go ahead, move on to the next questioner. Our next question coming from the line of Anthony Crowdell with Mizuho Group. Yulan is now open.
Anthony Crowdell
Hey, good morning. I know Julian does three calls at once, so he’s probably a little tied up. Just I don’t believe it’s apples to apples. Apologies for the question. Just when I Look on Slide 4 and you talk about the 8 gigawatts of data center load expected to be energized by 2029, is that the same 8 gigawatts that in the fourth quarter slide deck, you guys are focused on getting it on by year end 28. I mean my question is, is that load getting pushed back a year or. It’s actually not an apples to apples comparison.
Chris Foster
Anthony, let me just go ahead and lay it out for you. The prior quarter we had talked about seven and a half. That number is now going to eight and it’s by the end of 2028 is the way to think about it. So apples to apples, that’s the number from 7.5 to 8. What we provided this morning though is that the firmly committed top line number is actually going to 12.2 gigawatts.
Anthony Crowdell
Perfect. Great. And then just lastly a quick follow up on you talked about. I think you’re going to file a Minnesota and Indiana gas cases later this year. Is it just infrastructure investment that’s driving that filing or anything else in either of those two filings?
Chris Foster
Sure. Pretty straightforward. Definitely. It’s really about replacement capex Minnesota on a very straightforward program to focus on safety and reliability as it relates to Indiana there. What I think is important that we have already signaled is our focus on affordability. In particular we are evaluating actually Anthony, combining what are currently two gas rate cases up there into one which we would likely file in Q4 of this year. By combining the cases we’re likely to see customer bill benefit explicitly for those customers that we serve in southwest Indiana as a result of the cost allocation changes and so, so excited to be able to put those forward.
Both of those I think you should anticipate for Q4 of this year. Both Minnesota and Indiana.
Anthony Crowdell
Great. Thanks for taking my questions guys.
Chris Foster
Thanks.
Operator
Thank you. Our next question coming from the lineup, Andrew Lyntel with Scotiabank Yoland is now open.
Andrew Lyntel
Hey, good morning everybody.
Jason Wells
Morning.
Andrew Lyntel
First question is you’ve talked about utilizing 10 gigawatts of existing system capacity around Houston to generate those 4 billion of savings but you now have over 12 gigawatts of committed load. Obviously no two projects are the same but you have a rough ballpark number of what will be required per incremental gigawatt of demand going forward. I know you alluded to some new transmission projects that maybe you’ll announce later this year. I’m asking more like a sensitivity in terms of assets and capex needs than what kind of impact would that have on the rest of the customer base?
Would it bring further customer benefits or should we think about it more like net neutral going forward?
Jason Wells
Ultimately I think about it as further customer benefits. You know, I think we have been in a very unique position in holding our rates relatively constant since 2014 and that largely has been a function of the economic growth in Houston. I can’t size for you kind of a dollar per gigawatt for incremental because it is going to be so unique. What’s the cost of and the length of the import lines? Where specifically are the intra regional lines needed? What’s needed from a system stability Standpoint, those are all the things that we’re evaluating as part of the transmission study.
This will create incremental capacity at a cost. But the way that I would think about it is it unlocks the benefit of future economic growth for the region. And just as we’ve invested in capacity in the past that’s been utilized and kept our rates flat, the same will happen here. Ultimately, the single biggest lever for affordability of utility service is economic development. And we are laser focused on continuing to make sure that we support the Greater Houston region, Indiana and Minnesota’s economic development opportunities.
Andrew Lyntel
Okay, thank you. Directionally helpful. Then second, in terms of the balance sheet on cash taxes, I know you mentioned you’ll be getting some refunds and you expect to see lower cash tax outflows going forward. Do you see that as being meaningful enough to reduce the guidance calling for 4 billion of common equity? Obviously that will depend on capex, which is constantly rising. But all else equal, would that be meaningful enough to impact equity? And then please remind me, was the convertible already embedded in the assumptions or could that also imply some downside?
Chris Foster
Sure. So thanks for the question on the convert. You can imagine that helped reduce kind of near term floating rate pressure. So that was a nice add to the plan. As I think about the corporate alternative minimum tax benefit, what we had shared is that not only will you get the refund improvement for this year, so just think about that as roughly in line with that $150 million a year of cash tax payments that would go away, you would keep that benefit. Right. As you go forward. Right. So that roughly $150 million a year.
So what we’ve shared actually is that could provide us the equivalent of adding an incremental billion dollars of capex to the plan with no incremental equity. And so as you can hear from what Jason shared this morning, certainly there are multiple opportunities. So that’s how we’ve tried to share that. Actually we’ve got even more capex we can add to the plan without adding incremental equity.
Andrew Lyntel
Okay, great. Very clear. Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. I see there are no further questions in the queue at this time. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes CenterPoint Energy’s first quarter 2026 earnings conference call. Thank you for your participation and you may now disconnect. Sa. Sam.