Chewy Inc Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Chewy Inc (NYSE: CHWY) Q4 2025 Earnings Call dated Mar. 25, 2026

Presentation

Operator

Hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us, and welcome to the Chewy Fourth Quarter 2025 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

I will now hand the call over to Natalie Nowak, Head of Investor Relations. Natalie, please go ahead.

Natalie Nowak — Head of Investor Relations

Thank you for joining us on the call today to discuss our fourth quarter and full year results for fiscal year 2025.

Joining me today are Chewy’s CEO, Sumit Singh; and CFO, Chris Deppe. Our earnings release, which was filed with the SEC earlier today, has been posted to the Investor Relations section of our website. In addition to the earnings release, a presentation summarizing our results is also still available on our website at investor.chewy.com.

On our call today, we will be making forward-looking statements, including statements concerning Chewy’s financial results and performance, industry trends, strategic initiatives share repurchase program and the environment in which we operate. Such statements are considered forward-looking statements under the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements involve certain risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from our forward-looking statements. We encourage you to review our SEC filings including the section titled Risk Factors in our Form 10-K filed earlier today for a discussion of these risks. Reported results should not be considered an indication of future performance. Also note that the forward-looking statements on this call are based on information available to us as of today’s date. We assume no obligation to update any forward-looking statements, except as required by law.

Also during this call, we will discuss certain non-GAAP financial measures. Reconciliations of these non-GAAP items to the most directly comparable GAAP financial measures are provided on our Investor Relations website and in our earnings release. These non-GAAP measures are not intended as a substitute for GAAP results. Additionally, unless otherwise stated, all comparisons discussed on today’s call will be against the comparable period of fiscal year 2024.

Finally, this call in its entirety is being webcast on our Investor Relations website. A replay of the audio webcast will also be available on our Investor Relations website shortly.

And with that, I’d like to turn the call over to Sumit.

Sumit Singh — Chief Executive Officer & Director

Thank you, Natalie, and good morning, everyone.

I’m thrilled to be joined today by our newly appointed CFO, Chris Deppe. Chris has been with Chewy since 2022 and brings valuable continuity and deep institutional knowledge, enabling a particularly seamless transition. He has a strong understanding of our business and the opportunities ahead for Chewy. I look forward to having many of you engage with Chris as he steps into his new role as CFO.

I want to start by thanking our Chewy team members for executing a strong finish to the year. Once again, we delivered strong net sales growth, significant margin expansion and record free cash flow in 2025. As we enter 2026, we are focused on repeating this formula for success, disciplined execution, profitable growth, continued margin expansion and strong free cash flow generation, all in support of sustained long-term shareholder value. Instead of taking the traditional approach of diving straight into our results, I’d like to share my perspective on what we are seeing in the pet industry and Chewy’s place in it in 2026 and beyond.

So let’s begin. Pet is a uniquely attractive industry, fueled by increasing pet humanization premium product adoption and expanding lifetime value per household. Spending in this category is driven by an emotional attachment and recurring non-discretionary needs which translates into resilient demand across economic cycles. We expect 2026 pet industry dynamics to largely mirror 2025, steady and resilient to macro trends but without cyclical acceleration. Pet household formation appears stable with no evidence of deterioration. However, we are not underwriting a meaningful rebound in that variable. Current estimates suggest low single-digit industry growth with dog at the lower end of that range and cat at the higher end. Further, we expect industry growth to be predominantly volume driven, with little or no contribution from pricing.

Importantly, we expect a secular shift towards e-commerce penetration to continue as consumers increasingly prioritize convenience transparency and auto replenishment, structural advantages that persist across economic environments and benefit scaled digital platforms like Chewy. Against this backdrop, we once again expect to deliver share gaining growth. We believe that Chewy is unique with a differentiated flywheel-like operating model powered by a leading sales engine with over 80% of net sales on Autoship, supported by a world-class fulfillment network, delivering best-in-class consumer satisfaction. The algorithm supporting our underlying growth remains balanced and durable. Driven both by active customer growth and NSPAC expansion.

We reached an inflection point in net adds in 2024 and built on that progress throughout 2025, adding approximately 150,000 to 250,000 net adds per quarter. In the current environment, we believe we can continue to deliver quarterly sequential net adds within that range. At the same time, we see a long runway to grow NSPAC through premium and health mix shift, private brand expansion and deeper engagement. Now shifting to margins. On margin expansion, including its trajectory and durability, we remain equally bullish. As I noted during our last earnings call, our long-term margin framework is unchanged. And the underlying drivers of margin expansion are strengthening. In 2026, we expect to further expand profitability with the rate of expansion expected to build relative to 2025.

SG&A leverage will further strengthen as we move through the year supported by the continued ramp of our next-generation Houston fulfillment center and efficiencies from the use of AI that helps structurally lower our cost to serve. I will talk about these shortly. And finally, we believe Chewy remains well positioned to compound growth, expand share and drive sustained margin and free cash flow expansion in 2026 and beyond. Independent of a macro reacceleration. Said simply, as we look to 2026, our model does not depend on a minimum net sales growth threshold to expand profitability.

Now an update on some of our strategic priorities, and then Chris will take you through our financial results and 2026 guidance. Starting with Chewy Vet Care, we opened 10 new practices in 2025, reaching the high end of our target range, bringing our CVC footprint to 18 locations across five states. Performance continues to exceed expectations, supported by strong utilization and consistently high customer and veterinarian satisfaction scores. CVC is also driving compelling ecosystem-wide value, serving as both a customer acquisition engine and an engagement flywheel that deepens relationships with high-value health customers. And the results are compelling. CVC is the fastest Nasdaq compounder in the business. We believe veterinary care is a powerful growth vector and a key pillar of value creation for Chewy. We are confident in the path ahead as we continue to execute and scale this platform.

Turning to AI. For those of you familiar with Chewy, it will come as no surprise that our ability to adopt technology and drive rapid innovation is a core strength. We operate on a modern, nimble and scalable tech stack supported by a world-class team of designers, product managers, marketers and technologists who excel at building applications that enhance the customer experience while lowering costs. The arrival of AI only amplifies this advantage, enabling us to innovate faster, operate more efficiently and unlock entirely new capabilities, and that is exactly what we’re focused on. Over the past several quarters, we have focused on building the foundation required to deploy AI at scale across Chewy.

Today, with our unified enterprise data platform and central AI tooling in place, we are embedding AI across key layers of the business, specifically, the purchase experience our service and operations layer and our supply chain and fulfillment network. Let me elaborate. Within the purchase experience, we are progressing quickly to apply AI across our platforms to improve search relevance, product discoverability and personalization. Externally, we are closely following the emergence of Agentic Commerce models and view it as a future incremental demand and distribution channel for Chewy. Pet remains a deeply emotional category where trust, relationships and empathy matter. And these are enduring strengths of the Chewy brand.

Combined with our leadership in price selection and recurring convenience, both purchase and delivery, we believe our competitive position remains strong. Across the broader organization, we are already deploying AI to drive greater structural efficiency. Functions such as customer service, fulfillment pharmacy and marketing operations are leveraging internally developed AI tools to streamline workflows and improve productivity. As we move through 2026, these efforts will translate into measurable financial impact. Based on our current road map, we expect AI-driven efficiencies to contribute a low tens of millions of dollars benefit in 2026 with a meaningful step-up in 2027, where we see a path to approximately $50 million or more in annualized savings as these capabilities scale.

Moving on from AI, let me briefly talk about Chewy private brands. After the launch of our Fresh brand, Get Real in Q2 last year, we are entering an exciting new chapter for Chewy Private Brands with the launch of Chewy Made. Chewy Made is our unified owned brand platform designed to deliver trusted high-quality products while driving durable profitable growth for Chewy.

Starting in April and throughout 2026, we will expand our presence across both dog and cat consumables. This includes a balanced offering of dog food positioned at more accessible price points to broaden our reach into everyday nutrition, a broader assortment in every day and gourmet cat nutrition as well as entry into high-demand formats where we currently have low penetration. In addition to the expanded assortment, we are consolidating some existing brands under this platform, creating a more cohesive and streamlined experience for customers. We look forward to keeping you updated on the progress of Chewy Made.

In closing, we continue to execute from a position of strength. We are delivering share gains, expanding margins through structural efficiencies and generating growing free cash flow. Looking ahead to 2026, we are well positioned to further build on this momentum and drive sustained earnings growth.

With that, I will turn it over to Chris.

Christopher S. Deppe — Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Sumit, and thank you all for joining us today.

Having been part of Chewy’s journey for nearly 4 years, I’m excited to step into the CFO role and continue building on the strong foundation our team has established. I look forward to engaging with many of you in the quarters ahead. Let’s start with a review of our financial results.

As we get into the details, a reminder, fiscal year 2024 included a 53rd week and comparisons for Q4 and full year 2025 are discussed on a comparable 52-week basis where applicable. Fourth quarter net sales reached over $3.26 billion bringing our total fiscal year 2025 net sales to over $12.6 billion, delivering year-over-year net sales growth of 8.1% in Q4 and 8.3% for the full year 2025 and reflecting strong execution, continued share gains in a stable category environment and consistent performance across both customer growth and spend per customer. We continue to grow active customers ending the year with $21.3 million, increasing by approximately 4% year-over-year and net additions up by more than 810,000 year-over-year in fiscal 2025.

We once again saw year-over-year improvement across all elements of the active customer equation. We also continue to grow with a high-quality revenue base. Autoship customer sales reached over $2.7 billion in Q4 and $10.5 billion for the year, representing 84% of total net sales in Q4 and 83.3% for the full year 2025. Growth in Autoship customer sales outpaced overall top line growth, increasing by nearly 13% in the fourth quarter and 14% for the full year 2025 on a comparable basis, reinforcing the strength of our recurring revenue model. NSPAC reached $591 in Q4 2025, increasing by approximately 4% year-over-year on a comparable basis.

Moving to profitability. We reported fourth quarter gross margin of 29.4% and full year 2025 gross margin of 29.8% and representing approximately 90 basis points of year-on-year margin expansion in Q4 and 60 basis points of expansion for the full year. Strong gross margin performance was driven by sponsored ads growth premium mix into high-margin categories, including health and wellness verticals and a rational promotional environment.

Shifting to operating expenses, please note that my discussion of SG&A excludes share-based compensation expense and related taxes. Fourth quarter SG&A was $607 million or 18.6% of net sales and full year 2025 came in at $2.4 billion or 18.8% of net sales. Q4 and 2025 SG&A include approximately $10 million of onetime transaction costs primarily related to the SmartEquine acquisition. Excluding SBC and these onetime costs, we delivered SG&A leverage of approximately 20 basis points in Q4 and full year SG&A as a percentage of net sales came in flat year-over-year. Fourth quarter advertising and marketing expense was $233 million, bringing full year 2025 A&M expense to $825 million or 6.5% of 2025 net sales reflecting approximately 30 basis points of leverage year-over-year.

Fourth quarter adjusted net income was $115 million and full year 2025 came in at $541 million which translated into $0.27 adjusted earnings per share in Q4 and $1.27 in full year 2025. Fourth quarter adjusted EBITDA came in at $162 million representing a 5.0% adjusted EBITDA margin, up 120 basis points year-over-year and adjusted EBITDA flow-through of approximately 19%. The Full year 2025 adjusted EBITDA came in at $719 million or 5.7% adjusted EBITDA margin, growing approximately 26% year-over-year reflecting 90 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion and flow-through of over 16%. This level of profitability expansion at our scale reflects the structural strength of our model and continued operating discipline across the business. We are consistently expanding earnings at a rate meaningfully above net sales growth, demonstrating the operating leverage embedded in the model.

The results we are delivering today are a clear reflection of the underlying strength of the business and where it is going. In the fourth quarter, we reported free cash flow of $232 million. And in fiscal year 2025, we generated $562.4 million of free cash flow, both record highs for the company, highlighting the continued improvement in earnings quality and capital efficiency. The consistency, scale and continued growth of our free cash flow underscore the quality and resilience of our model. Our full year 2025 free cash flow reflects $691.6 million of net cash provided by operating activities at $129.2 million of capital expenditures. We ended the year with approximately $879 million in cash, cash equivalents and marketable securities, and we remain debt-free with an overall liquidity position of approximately $1.7 billion.

Over the course of the year, we repurchased and retired approximately 6.8 million shares, spending approximately $257 million on share repurchases in 2025. Overall, our capital allocation priorities are unchanged. And advance the strategic priorities of the business where returns are attractive, maintain a strong balance sheet and return excess cash to shareholders. Share repurchases will remain a key part of our capital allocation strategy and we expect our level of activity to increase relative to 2025, reflecting both the strength of our cash generation and our view of the current valuation.

Now turning to forward-looking guidance. As we enter fiscal 2026, I want to clearly frame how we expect the year to progress both from a full year standpoint and in terms of quarterly cadence. In addition to our guidance ranges, I will provide perspective on pacing so that our expectations for growth and profitability are well understood and appropriately reflected in how you model the year. Our 2026 outlook is built around three consistent priorities. First, continued share gains supported by stable demand and balanced growth across active customers in NSPAC. Second, ongoing margin expansion driven by a combination of mix improvement and increasing operating leverage. And third, improved incremental flow-through relative to 2025, reflecting strengthening cost discipline and the scaling benefits embedded in our model.

Let me now walk through the specifics of our 2026 outlook. For the full year 2026, we expect net sales of between $13.6 million and $13.75 billion or approximately 8% to 9% year-over-year growth with the recently closed SmartEquine acquisition expected to contribute approximately $80 million of net sales for the total company in 2026. Overall net sales growth will continue to be driven by a combination of active customer growth and NSPAC expansion. Our forecast assumes no price inflation in 2026 and we remain confident in delivering low single-digit active customer growth with net additions broadly consistent throughout the year. As you think about the quarterly progression of net sales, Q1 is expected to represent the low point of the year from a growth perspective, largely reflecting timing and lapping dynamics. We expect net sales growth to build in Q2 and continue to strengthen through Q3.

From a profitability standpoint, we expect to deliver another year of meaningful expansion in 2026. We anticipate full year 2026 adjusted EBITDA margin in the range of 6.6% to 6.8% and or approximately 100 basis points of year-over-year expansion at the midpoint. Based on our guidance ranges, we expect to deliver adjusted EBITDA of approximately $900 million to over $930 million with growth to once again outpace net sales growth by approximately 3x in 2026.

Let me provide some perspective on how margins are expected to progress through the year. The composition of adjusted EBITDA margin expansion in fiscal year 2026 is expected to shift relative to 2025. We expect a larger share of our EBITDA margin expansion to come from operating leverage, reflecting structural improvements within SG&A and modest leverage in A&M with gross margin continuing to expand year-over-year, though at a more moderate pace than in 2025.

Turning to gross margin. As a reminder, in 2025 and gross margin peaked in the second quarter due to the timing of certain initiatives in the business. In 2026, we expect quarter-over-quarter gross margin pacing to be more in line with our historical performance as observed in prior years.

Turning to SG&A and advertising and marketing, we expect to deliver SG&A leverage in 2026 with SG&A as a percentage of net sales broadly consistent throughout the year. We also expect advertising and marketing expense to follow a similar sequential quarterly progression as what you observed in 2025. And finally, we anticipate a sequential moderation in Q4 margins consistent with typical seasonality and the timing of promotional activity as observed in prior years.

Now turning to the first quarter. We expect Q1 2026 net sales of between $3.33 billion and $3.36 billion or approximately 7% to 8% year-over-year growth, which, as previously mentioned, we expect to represent the low point of the year. Additionally, quarterly net sales contribution from Smart Equine is expected to be broadly consistent throughout the year. We also expect first quarter adjusted diluted earnings per share in the range of $0.40 to $0.45. And finally, to provide additional color on other line items for the full year 2026, we expect share-based compensation expense, including related taxes, to be broadly flat compared to 2025. Weighted average diluted shares outstanding of approximately 425 million. We also expect 2026 net interest income of approximately $10 million to $15 million and our effective tax rate to be in the range of 20% to 22%.

In closing, I’d like to thank all of our Chewy team members for their disciplined execution in 2025. As we look ahead, we remain confident in our strategy and in our ability to deliver continued share gaining growth, expanding margins and strong cash generation. We believe the momentum in the business positions us well to deliver another successful year of profitable growth in 2026. We look forward to updating you on our progress in the quarters ahead.

With that, I will turn the call over to the operator for questions.

Question & Answers

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Mark Mahaney with Evercore ISI. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Mark Mahaney — Analyst, Evercore ISI

Okay, thanks. Two questions, please. One on this A&M leverage going forward. Just talk about where you think that can go. The biggest drivers of that going forward as your such a heavily subscription Autoship type model, you think that you’re showing leverage should be able to continue to show leverage, I would imagine, for the next couple of years, any thoughts on when we could break below 6%? And then some could you talk a little bit about the Chewy Made strategy a little bit more, the impetus behind that? And what do you think the financial so what of that will be? Do you think that — is that more of a kind of a — with lower — you mentioned some lower price points. Is that kind of more of a TAM expander? Or is it something that could just expand a NSPAC per customer? Thank you very much.

Sumit Singh — Chief Executive Officer & Director

I’ll take them one by one. So on the first one, yes, we expect to show A&M leverage going forward. I will refrain from commenting as to what the extent will be on an annual basis. I’ll take you back to our long-range plan that we communicated or the targets that we communicated at December 2023. If you recall from that point, we’re essentially running ahead of our profit targets at this point. So we’ve got roughly 350 basis points to go to hit the 10%, and then we start the journey of moving beyond the 10% EBITDA. If you look at the remaining left to go, we believe roughly half or a little bit less than half will come from gross margin and the rest will come from SG&A and marketing. And so we believe at our levels, spending somewhere in the 6%, 6.5% is reasonable in the near term.

And then as our brand continues to build even further with the CVCs that we’re putting in ground or the upper funnel connections that we’re making that is giving us really good leverage, plus the way that the app, the mobile app strategy is essentially progressing. We do believe we’re shifting the mix from third-party mixes to direct mixes quite effectively and that strategy should essentially continue to fuel the leverage that we’re talking about. Now the second question, Chewy Made strategy. So if you — again, I’ll take you back to the high-level view of the forest first. So we believe private brands should be mid-teens level — low to mid-teens level penetration of net sales for Chewy. At that scale, we expect private brands to be roughly 500 basis points higher gross margin than the base business.

And so this essentially is a step in that direction because today, we’re sitting at, I would say, low to mid-single digits of penetration of net sales. And especially when you look at our penetration, we are penetrated quite reasonably well on the hard goods side — so on suppliers, we’re mid-teens to high teens level penetration. And therefore, the opportunity staring us in the face is on the consumables side. Now it also happens that consumables is the largest TAM of the $90 billion food and supplies TAM, consumables is about $50 billion to $60 billion of that. So for us, the way that we are bringing forward assortment, it allows us to fill in gaps in assortment at the high end. So you saw that with the launch of fresh food that is a very high NSPAC compounder.

We’re also looking at value offerings across the surface and going, okay, where can we inject strategically utilize the power of a scaled e-com network to be able to lower our cost to serve and deliver those price points effectively without really sacrificing margins along the way. And so in that way, it becomes a margin boost for us. So for us, this will ebb and flow relative to the assortment that we bring to life, but we’re filling in assortment, both in dog in cat, we’ve been, I would say, anemic in the past. And so you’ve seen me talk about two new assortment categories in cat this time around. We’ll continue to keep you updated, but we’re excited about where we go from here.

Mark Mahaney — Analyst, Evercore ISI

Thank you. Sumit,

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Eric Sheridan with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Eric Sheridan — Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thanks so much for taking the question. Maybe building on Mark’s question and submit some of your earlier comments on the call on AI. Can you identify some of the key areas in the cost structure of the business where you believe the application AI can earn outsized returns in terms of efficiency gains? And then the second part of the question would be philosophically, how do you think about letting some of those efficiency gains continue to drop to the bottom line and accelerate your pathway to a higher margin framework or the philosophical balance would be reinvesting some of those back into the business to incent growth and producing a more sort of linear or managed margin progression for the business. Thanks so much.

Sumit Singh — Chief Executive Officer & Director

Eric, there’s a lot in that second question. Let’s start from the first one, which is a really good one. So as mentioned in the prepared remarks, we’re applying AI across a number of areas in the business, right? And so I’ll stay away from the future applications that we’re developing that will increase search relevance and discoverability. So we’ll talk about that as 2026 moves forward. What we are already deploying in the business is applications and agents that we are starting to use across customer service across fulfillment, across pharmacy, marketing operations and general marketing areas for campaign optimization, creative optimization and so forth and so on. So if you start from customer care, I’ll stay away from specific road maps and specific projects for sake of kind of competitive outlays.

But you should think about these applications that allows us to essentially reduce handle times, improve on the ability for us to self-serve customers that then drives reduced contact rates, which then directly leads to lowering of costs. So an example would be earlier, roughly 8 weeks ago, we’ve essentially launched refunds and returns in a self-service manner and the engagement and the success rate that we are viewing in that particular launch is quite impressive. And so that becomes very encouraging for us. We also recognize that there is a cohort of customers out there that will continue to grow that are much more propense towards self-service and digitize used of platforms in the way that they demand service from platforms. And so we will extend ourselves in the use cases that we go offer to them.

Internally, we’re developing applications for agents that allows them to extract information and deliver coherent consistent level of service with a reduced amount of effort but also then improves the agent experience. So it improves our retention and quality that the agents essentially provide to customers but it also concurrently reduces our cost structure given that input metrics like average handle times and contact rates essentially decrease as a combination of those two, right? On the health spectrum, we’re using a lot of computer vision in our FCs. We’re using AI to be able to qualify our — the way the scripts are being read, the scripts are being processed, et cetera, et cetera. Happy to go into details when we do a one-on-one. But essentially, we’re quite bullish in the way that we’re going to use these applications in the near to medium term.

Now over the long term, we believe we’re a pretty good case for when humanoid essentially come to life, right? So today, we’re not going to talk about that. But if you look at the fulfillment space in the world, your variable cost essentially is spent in picking and packing. And so if you can build relevant solutions in the future to bring to life in these fulfillment areas, you can drive dramatic productivity alongside kind of the human — without losing the human element that we’re so good at delivering to the market. So that’s sort of our medium — near, medium and long-term thinking. Now your second question is how do we manage this? I will take you back to our broad aspirations of how we manage growth, profitability and free cash flow. We want to grow revenue to be between high single-digit and low double-digit percentage points.

The composition of that revenue will remain with net adds growing and NSPAC growing. We want to also deliver 100 basis points of margin expansion on an average and so you can see that this print sets us up for a high-quality durable performance, not just in ’26, but also ’27 right? At midpoint, we’re delivering 100 and we’re set up to perhaps exceed that relative to how the performance comes in for the rest of the year. Now we also want to convert at least 80% of that profitability into free cash flow. And so we’re not just going for one or the other. I think we want to deliver a trifecta of growth increased profitability that builds durably on top of previous year’s performance and then accumulating or compounding free cash flow that we can deploy to reinvest in high ROI opportunities but also to return cash to shareholders.

Eric Sheridan — Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Great, thank you.

Sumit Singh — Chief Executive Officer & Director

Sure.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Doug Anmuth with JPMorgan. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Doug Anmuth — Analyst, JPMorgan

Thanks for taking the questions. One for Sumit and one for Chris. Sumit, you talked about Agentic as incremental demand and distribution channel. I just want to get your latest views here and how you’ll implement Agentic on your own platform for customers. And I think you’re more insulated just given the 84% of the revenue coming from Autoship customers. And then, Chris, can you just talk about fuel costs, some of the impact that you may be seeing in real time and how we should think about that in context of the ’26 outlook? Thanks.

Sumit Singh — Chief Executive Officer & Director

So I agree with your thoughts. If you’re selling a commodity, I think the disintermediation issue is likely one that needs paying attention. But from that point of view, we believe Chewy is quite well insulated, given our value proposition is not primarily search aggregation and because our customer relationship is not primarily built around onetime discovery. So we have continued to view ourselves and are more and more seen as a trusted recurring service-rich pet care platform. So in categories like food, pharmacy, broader health care, the customer is often not asking where to buy, they’re asking for a seamless dependable experience that consistently meets their needs and that essentially plays to our strengths.

So now in terms of how we think about Agentic developments, we essentially believe that these developments may over time, perhaps shape the interface of where the consumer is interacting, but it doesn’t necessarily change who wins the order. And that’s where our focus is, right, in making sure that Chewy remains the most trusted and convenient platform behind that transaction, whether it’s through an owned experience or through future integrations, right, that we are also pursuing amongst others, and we are leading with many of these partners out there, right, that make our assortment, service and capabilities easy to access. So in that way, we see it as an opportunity.

So broadly, we think the right strategy is to be present wherever pet parents choose to engage including emerging agent e-commerce interfaces because those platforms in our opinion, can expand discovery and put Chewy in front of a much larger pool of high-intent users. And so for us, success is not just showing up. It’s to make sure that behind the transaction, our assortment, service, health care capabilities and recurring relationships are durably integrated. And we have quite high confidence in being able to do that. Now another thing that I’ve heard is, will that impact sponsored ads business.

Like that’s another question that I’ve gotten so I’ll just kind of proactively hit that. And there, again, I believe that Chewy’s retail media proposition is differentiated, because it is highly tied to an engaged pet audience, strong first-party data, recurring purchase behavior and flows look conversation. So said otherwise, right, our ad proposition is not just we have page views. It is that we have a very high intentful pet audience, strong first-party data, recurring behavior and the closed-loop attribution that I talked about right? So for — if you look at us, we convert a large portion of ad attributed purchases directly to auto ship orders because that’s how our ad model is built. And so then we combine that with on-site and off-site formats increasingly tied together through Chewy data.

So it continues to give suppliers a very strong reason to advertise with Chewy even if Agentic interfaces grow because we sit close to that conversion repeat behavior, right? So that’s kind of my point of view externally. Internally, I’ve talked about sponsored ads and AI. I talked about creating applications that will allow consumers not only to self-serve, so post-purchase support but also in purchase discoverability and conversion, right, with the use of AI that drives personalization driven by memory recall injection of pet profile data tied to order data that then delivers right, a highly curated and personalized in-app experience to you as a customer. That’s the future that we’re headed into. And in our opinion, we’re not that far off.

Christopher S. Deppe — Chief Financial Officer

Okay. And Doug, on fuel. In the near term, we’re relatively well insulated. Given the scale of our Autoship business and the strength of our relationships with key partners, and so our guidance for both Q1 and the full year stands and is what we expect.

Doug Anmuth — Analyst, JPMorgan

Thank you, both.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of David Bellinger with Mizuho. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

David Bellinger — Analyst, Mizuho

Hey everyone, good morning. Thanks for the questions and congrats to Chris on the new seat. On the guidance, looking at revenue growth on an organic basis, it’s implied about 8% growth at the midpoint and very consistent with 2025, you’ve got revenue guidance for Q1 a bit lighter than the full year, the organic range may be a full percentage point lower. Can you give us some additional detail on why revenue growth should pick up through the balance of the year? Is there anything unique that’s hit in Q1 or something else planned throughout the year that gives you added conviction in this reacceleration?

Christopher S. Deppe — Chief Financial Officer

David, I appreciate that. In Q1, we’re not seeing material change in our underlying demand trends. When we look across the business, across customer engagement, retention, overall spend behavior. The trends we see remain stable and consistent with what we’ve seen over the past several quarters.

From a quarterly perspective, Q1 is simply the lowest point to the growth profile for the year, and we move through the year, we do expect growth to build supported by continued share gains, consistent execution across the business. We have a high level of confidence there because it’s really all driven by the core components of our model, which are stable and consistent, right? We’re seeing strong customer adds, steady customer adds, strong retention customers continue to engage more deeply.

And third, we continue to take share in the category, which is growing at a low single-digit rate. So when you put all those together, the stable customer growth, the consistent spend expansion and our ongoing share gains. You get a model that builds in a predictable way. And so we’re not relying here on any one driver for the Q2 to Q3 growth. It’s really broad-based execution across the business and so that’s what gives us the confidence in that ramp and delivering on our full year outlook.

David Bellinger — Analyst, Mizuho

Got it. And then just one follow-up on the EBITDA margin guidance, about 100 basis points of expansion. Can you help us understand the lapping of any onetime like or non-repeatable items that hit the P&L in 2025? You had the Chewy+ investments in the back half also to get real launch, some front-loaded SG&A costs ahead of the tariffs. So how much of a benefit on EBITDA or EBITDA margin is assumed in 2026 as you lap these? And are there any other offsets we should consider any flexibility around further reinvestment in the business? Thank you.

Christopher S. Deppe — Chief Financial Officer

Yes. If you remember correctly, Dave, we talked about particularly in the back half of the year last year, it was a low single-digit million investment number. And so they’re not material onetime impacts that we’re lapping there that drive that 100 basis points, that 100 basis points really is driven by leveraging the model and improvements in the business. And so that’s kind of where I would guide you there.

Sumit Singh — Chief Executive Officer & Director

David, just to elaborate on that, if you recall the number, we’ve given a guidance of somewhere around $18 million to $20 million as what we had expected to spend. And in — on the Q3 call, we said we’re on track to spending roughly half of that. So that was about $10 million or so. And ultimately, as Chris said, we spend kind of mid- low to mid-single digits in revenue because we were keeping some to see if we want to invest in pricing as Q4 played through. So that — we gave that we were keeping some to see if we wanted to accelerate the fresh demand if the demand didn’t come in as per our expectations. And then the third one was we were sort of navigating Chewy+. But we were pleased with the level of efficiency that we saw there. So it’s low to mid-single-digit millions. And then on the SG&A, the Dallas and the inventory impact was also $2 million to $4 million. So that’s how we should size it.

David Bellinger — Analyst, Mizuho

Appreciate it. Thank you, both.

Sumit Singh — Chief Executive Officer & Director

Sure.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Steve Forbes with Guggenheim. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Steve Forbes — Analyst, Guggenheim

Good morning, Sumit and Chris. Given the growth in net adds the last couple of years and I think your initial comments in the prepared remarks by expanding lifetime value. I was wondering if you can maybe revisit and update us on spending trends by cohort, maybe some of those newer customer cohorts? And then what type of growth are you still seeing within your most mature cohorts as we think about building conviction around back?

Sumit Singh — Chief Executive Officer & Director

So both good questions. So overall, our newer cohorts, ’24 and ’25 are stronger than ’22 and ’23 cohorts. They are much more in line with our legacy cohorts. There was this kind of 3-year period where we were sort of staring at the pandemic cohorts sideways to go, really try to interpret the quality of customers there. But we’re clearly past that. The quality of cohorts that we’ve been picking up is really good. Repeatable purchase rate remains high. The order rate remains high and netback trending trends to the higher end of the $150 to $200 that we expect customers to spend in the first year.

Now in terms of the oldest cohorts, it’s less older cohorts, older cohorts. I think we’re seeing this across a bunch of cohorts that are interfacing with our value-added services. So whether it’s cohorts that are native to the app cohorts that are native to health, particularly cohorts that are native to CVC, these cohorts are the fastest compounders of NSPAC in the company. That remains true for the fresh platform also when we get customers settled into our Get Real fresh platform, we see NSPAC compounding immediately.

And so our goal is to essentially push customers more and more into these closed-loop ecosystems and accelerate their net pack, which we are seeing us do quite successfully. So the larger — the number of customers we push into this, the faster NSPAC compounds. The oldest cohorts have continued to progress well and sound, but I felt I would give you a bit of a broader context as to why we should be excited about the durability of this in the future.

Steve Forbes — Analyst, Guggenheim

That’s helpful. And then maybe just a quick follow-up. Regarding Chewy+ penetration. I think you commented on low single-digit penetration by year-end — during year-end 2025. Any sort of initial thoughts on what the guidance implies or the expectation around penetration to end 2026. Again, what is the build conviction.

Sumit Singh — Chief Executive Officer & Director

So we like Chewy+. We are, I would say, still in a test and learn phase. We did achieve the low single-digit penetration that we talked about, specifically plus exited at about 4% penetration for 2025. And the reason we’re not giving you guidance is for Chewy+ is because we want to retain the flexibility to ebb and flow the program to land the incrementality and the spend in the right order, right? So we like what we are seeing so far. It is compounding NSPAC in the order that we want to. The incrementality ranges that we’re observing, we’d like them to be tighter, right? So we’re seeing incrementality ranges in a really healthy range, but we would like to see kind of the variability around those incrementality tighten even more around the mean. And then three, there are a few metrics or KPIs that we need a little more time to accrue before we come share that with you.

So one is the retentive nature of Chewy’s cohorts, right? Because Chewy+ cohorts have been developing over the last year or so, a year during the quarter, each sample size is not yet wide enough or large enough for us to be able to study retentive capability independent. So what I want to be able to come say is that, hey, if we get 10% of Chewy customers into Chewy+, it should have a wide impact on our retention, which should then directly impact our NSPAC. And so that particular equation, the inputs and outputs is what we want to study a bit longer. Number two, we’re also studying the impact of Chewy+ in terms of the efficiency it drives both in terms of promotional intensity as well as in terms of marketing spend or retargeting spend. And so there’s enough out there for us to continue to learn.

And then finally, the program value prop continues to evolve. I mean remember, today, the program has primarily product merchandise tied into it, right? And so we’re sort of ebbing and flowing back and forth to go great. Like how are customers perceiving that value? Are we giving too much value? Are we extracting how much value it set sector. So it is natural for us particularly given how impactful this program can be to be optimistic yet prudent in our approach in the way that we progress. So we’ll continue to be transparent. At the same time, we’ll stay away from providing immediate targets right away.

Steve Forbes — Analyst, Guggenheim

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Shweta Khajuria with Wolfe Research. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Andrew Northcutt

This is Andrew for Shweta. Thanks for taking the question. I want to be click on that customer adds. So look…

Sumit Singh — Chief Executive Officer & Director

Can you speak up a bit? We’re having a hard time hearing you.

Andrew Northcutt

Yes, yes, sorry about that. So I want to double-click on net customer adds. It looks like they came in above expectations through Q4. Basically, to what extent is this being driven by a broader refresh in the Pet adoption cycle versus maybe your own efficiency in performance marketing. And then as we look into 2026 guidance and really the cadence, does that sort of embed a slight improvement in household formation over time? Or is it just largely based on getting wallet share through your key initiatives?

Sumit Singh — Chief Executive Officer & Director

So just interpreting your question, I think you had two parts there. It’s a little bit hard to hear you, so I’m going to rephrase it back to you. So I think you’re asking if there is any pet household formation improvement built into our forecast. The answer is no. We said in our prepared remarks today, we’re interpreting the industry as quite stable, and we’re not underwriting a rebound or an acceleration in pet household formation metric. I think that was one part of the answer. And then the second question you asked was around customer adds came in above expectations in Q4. That was primarily seasonality and primarily the go-to-market that we deploy. It was well within our forecast.

So Chris, anything else to comment there?

Christopher S. Deppe — Chief Financial Officer

No, I think that’s right. If we missed some of the question. You’re just a bit hard to hear. Happy to follow up in callbacks and double click.

Andrew Northcutt

Appreciate it. Thank you.

Christopher S. Deppe — Chief Financial Officer

Sure.

Operator

Your next question is from Anna Andreeva with Piper Sandler. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Anna Andreeva — Analyst, Piper Sandler

Great. Thank you so much for taking our question, and good morning. First, to Sumit on Equine and congrats on closing the acquisition recognizing it’s still pretty early, but how are you thinking about the growth there for this year? And are you seeing more of an incremental consumer to Chewy? And how is that behavior on the Chewy platform? And then secondly, on gross margin to Chris, can you talk a little more about the puts and takes? Should we think sponsored ads still the biggest driver for the year followed by the mix shift? And should we think gross margin expansion more levered in the first half 1Q, I believe will be lapping, I think, 60 basis points of one-timers from last year. And thank you so much, guys.

Sumit Singh — Chief Executive Officer & Director

Anna, I will start with your first question, which was pertaining to the Smart Equine category, I believe, or the Smart Equine acquisition. So overall, this acquisition is we’ve sized it to about $80 million of top line in our forecast this year. And we like the business. It is a high-quality business of pet health nutraceuticals that essentially the category gross margins are really high. We expect to run this in the plus 35% gross margin ranges in the near future. But in 2026, what we’re focused on is essentially stabilizing the business. So — and so we don’t expect a material contribution from this particular line into the P&L. In fact, we’re going to ensure that we take the time to get the business to a high-quality — I’ll say this. We like the high-quality nature of the business in the category, but the business that we’ve picked up requires a little bit of fixing.

And so 2026 is that year. We don’t expect it to take any investments from us, right? But we don’t expect it to be materially contributive to the P&L. So our guidance that we provided fully incorporates our excitement and the work that it will take to get this business to its future aspiration. Where do we see it in the future? We feel or we believe that we can add — grow this to become a few hundred million dollar category at 35% to 45% gross margin. And so we’re quite excited in the way that this plays in the larger health and supplement space, very much synchronous with our overall health strategy. We like the quality of the customers that are engaging with it. We really like the team that essentially has come over with it. They’re passionate people, and they’re happy at Chewy.

Christopher S. Deppe — Chief Financial Officer

On margin expansion, we remain bullish. As we noted in the call, our long-term margin framework is unchanged. And in 2026, we’re going to further expand profitability with the rate of expansion higher than 2025. We also shared we do expect the composition of EBITDA margin to shift with a larger share from operating leverage. The gross margin will continue to expand year-over-year albeit at a more moderate pace than in 2025. We will continue to see improvement from premium mix and sponsored ads. We do expect sponsored ads impact to taper a bit in 2026. But SG&A leverage further strengthens to deliver the total 100 basis points of your expansion at the midpoint of our adjusted EBITDA guidance.

Sumit Singh — Chief Executive Officer & Director

And on sponsored ad Anna, the rate of growth of sponsored ads will continue at a really healthy pace. So this is less to do with growth moderation. It is to do with the natural phenomenon that we’ve been talking about which is as more shifts or mixes into offsite advertisement, right, we would expect a different margin mix to essentially flow through. And so you’ll see. So that is baked into our 2026 guidance.

Anna Andreeva — Analyst, Piper Sandler

Right. Fair enough. Thank you so much, guys.

Sumit Singh — Chief Executive Officer & Director

Sure.

Operator

We have time for one more question, and this question will be coming from the line of Michael McGovern with Bank of America. Your line is open. Please go ahead.

Michael McGovern — Analyst, Bank Of America

Thanks for taking my question. Could you just characterize kind of the industry growth backdrop in the low single-digit range relative to where you would kind of expect it on a normalized basis? And if you saw the industry backdrop improve, do you expect that your share gains would also improve and accelerate a bit?

Sumit Singh — Chief Executive Officer & Director

The second part of the question is very easy. The answer is yes. We are not making in any benefit that we get from the industry. So we’re baking in a stable environment, not an accelerating environment. When the industry — we’ve continued to say when the industry normalizes, we expect to also improve every metric that we are currently talking about, top line profitability and free cash flow. On the first one, industry growth backdrop in the low single-digit range versus what is normalized. We would like to see that household formation return to the 1% to 2% level. We would like to see pricing return to roughly 1.5% to 2% normalized in an industry, and we’d like to see overall growth rates get into the mid-single-digit growth rates that essentially are in the forecast for long-term growth of the pet category. That’s what we consider normalized.

Michael McGovern — Analyst, Bank Of America

Thanks. And can you also just double-click on your health category expectations for 2026. I think in the past, you’ve talked about your health category is kind of accretive to both growth and margins and close to about 30% of revenue. How is that tracking into 2026? Thank you.

Sumit Singh — Chief Executive Officer & Director

We continue to be bullish about our place in health, Mike, and the question sort of really broad. So trying to sort of interpret what might be helpful. But we remain highly bullish. We run at this point, a really high-quality ecosystem of products, consumer services as well as B2B services. That has now been complemented with an expanding and high-quality clinic footprint that essentially is providing us layered ecosystem benefits, both chewy.com and is the highest compounder of NSPAC. So broadly speaking, for health, it is a high-growth, high-margin category, and we expect it to continue to contribute to Chewy for long periods of time to call.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]