Earnings collapse on weak operations. OPAL Fuels Inc. (NASDAQ: OPAL) reported Q4 2025 GAAP EPS of $0.02, missing the consensus estimate of $0.38 by 94.7%. The utilities company’s earnings plunged 96.7% year-over-year from $0.60 in Q4 2024, marking a dramatic reversal from the prior year’s strong performance.
Revenue climbs despite earnings miss. Revenue reached $99.8 million, topping the $96.2 million consensus by 3.7% and climbing 24.7% from $80.0 million in the year-ago quarter. The company reported net income of $22.4 million and adjusted EBITDA of $34.2 million for the quarter. For the full year 2025, adjusted EBITDA totaled $90.2 million, essentially flat year-over-year despite a 28% increase in RNG production, as declining D3 RIN pricing—down roughly $0.70 per unit—offset operational gains by approximately $33 million in adjusted EBITDA.
Management highlights production growth. Co-CEO Adam Comora stated, “For our RNG production outlook in 2026, we continue to be encouraged by our improved operations team, new opportunities to improve gas collection and greater efficiencies of our plants, all driving incremental production growth from our existing assets.” CFO Kazi Hasan added context on the earnings disconnect: “D3 RIN pricing declined roughly $0.70, equivalent to approximately $33 million in adjusted EBITDA with our realized RIN price averaging $2.45 in 2025 compared to $3.13 in 2024. This decline offset much of our operational progress achieved during the year.” The company recently closed a $180 million Series A preferred facility and drew approximately $128 million under its senior secured credit facility to strengthen liquidity.
2026 guidance signals recovery. OPAL issued 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance of $95 million to $110 million, representing approximately 14% growth at the midpoint versus 2025. The company expects RNG production between 5.4 million and 5.8 million MMBtu, more than 14% growth versus 2025’s 4.9 million MMBtu, driven by improved performance from existing assets, continued ramp of recently commissioned projects, and marginal contributions from new facilities entering service during 2026. Management is assuming approximately $15 million to $20 million of 45Z tax credits during the year.
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