Company Description
ConocoPhillips is the world’s largest independent exploration and production (E&P) company based on production and proved reserves. Headquartered in Houston, the firm operates in 13 countries, with core segments in the U.S. Lower 48 (Permian, Eagle Ford, and Bakken), Alaska, Canada, and the North Sea. Its business model focuses on a diverse global portfolio with a low cost of supply, aiming to return significant cash flow to shareholders through cycles.
Market Data and Valuation
- Current Stock Price: $104.68 (Close Feb 5, 2026)
- Market Capitalization: Approximately $129.36 billion
- 52-Week Context: Shares have traded between $79.88 and $108.44 over the past year. The stock remains above its 200-day moving average of $93.52 despite the post-earnings pullback.
- Valuation: The stock carries a trailing P/E ratio of 14.8x. Its forward valuation reflects investor expectations of a $7 billion free cash flow inflection by 2029, though near-term pricing volatility remains a headwind.
Latest Earnings and Full-Year 2025 Results
ConocoPhillips reported results for the fourth quarter and full year ended Dec. 31, 2025:
- Q4 Adjusted Earnings: $1.02 per share, missing the Zacks consensus estimate of $1.08 and falling from $1.98 in the year-ago period.
- Q4 Revenue: $13.86 billion, a 3.7% decrease year-over-year, primarily due to a 19% drop in average realized prices to $42.46 per BOE.
- Full-Year 2025: Reported earnings of $8.0 billion ($6.35/share). Production rose to 2,375 MBOED, a 2.5% underlying organic growth.
- Shareholder Returns: The company returned $9 billion to shareholders in 2025 and declared a Q1 2026 ordinary dividend of $0.84 per share.
Forecasts and Macro Pressures
- 2026 Guidance: Management targets 2.33 to 2.36 MMBOED in production. Capital expenditures are guided at $12 billion, a reduction aimed at driving efficiency.
- Strategic Integration: The company successfully captured over $1 billion in run-rate synergies from the Marathon Oil deal in 2025.
- Geopolitical Risks: Exposure includes the newly reopening Venezuelan sector, where ConocoPhillips seeks recovery for $12 billion in previously expropriated assets.
- Tariff Impact: Analysts warn of indirect margin risks from escalating U.S.-China trade tensions and potential tariffs on imported steel or specialized energy equipment, which could raise breakeven costs for major projects like Willow in Alaska.
SWOT Analysis
| Strengths | Weaknesses |
| Top-tier Permian inventory and low-cost supply. | Sensitivity to Brent and WTI price fluctuations. |
| Record of top-quartile dividend growth. | Missed Q4 earnings and revenue consensus. |
| Opportunities | Threats |
| $7B free cash flow inflection target by 2029. | Potential regulatory hurdles in Libya or Alaska. |
| Recovery of ~$12B in Venezuelan legal claims. | Global oversupply and tariff-related trade wars. |