The Walt Disney Company (NYSE: DIS) has entered 2026 at a pivotal moment in its transformation from a linear media and content company to a digital-first, experience-led ecosystem. The company is sharpening its model with greater emphasis on streaming and creative content, while simplifying operations to sustain focus and agility. Disney’s streaming business has received a significant boost from improved monetization and operational efficiencies within the D2C model.
Estimates
The Burbank, California-headquartered entertainment behemoth is scheduled to report its first-quarter FY26 results on Monday, February 2, at 6:40 am ET. Analysts’ consensus earnings estimate for the quarter, adjusted for special items, is $1.57 per share, which represents an 11% year-over-year decrease. First-quarter revenue is expected to increase 3.5% from last year to $25.56 billion. Notably, earnings have beaten estimates consecutively in the trailing 10 quarters.
Disney’s stock has delivered little upside in recent years, remaining largely range-bound. It has lost nearly 10% in the past six months. Although weakness persisted into the opening weeks of 2026, analysts now project a rebound. The consensus target price, as of this week, implies potential gains of roughly 25% over the year. The company relies on its healthy cash flow and rising profitability to fund ongoing investments, supporting stronger capital returns to shareholders.
Q4 Outcome
For the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, Disney reported revenues of $22.5 billion, broadly unchanged from the prior-year quarter. On an adjusted basis, Q4 earnings decreased 3% year-over-year to $1.11 per share. Net income attributable to the company, on a reported basis, climbed to $1.31 billion or $0.73 per share from $460 million or $0.25 per share in Q4 2024. Earnings beat estimates, while revenues missed the mark. The Disney leadership said it expects double-digit growth in adjusted earnings per share for fiscal 2026.
From Disney’s Q4 2025 Earnings Call:
“This summer’s box office once again demonstrated the global and cross-generational appeal of our storytelling and IP. To date, Disney’s live-action Lilo & Stitch remains the highest-grossing Hollywood film at the global box office this calendar year, and its success has extended across our interconnected businesses and consumer touchpoints. The film achieved 14.3 million views during its first five days on Disney+, becoming the second biggest Disney live-action premiere on the platform ever. Retail sales for Stitch from our Consumer Products business also continue to grow, eclipsing $4 billion in fiscal 2025.”
Outlook
Recently, the company doubled its share buyback target to $7 billion in 2026, underscoring the strength of its cash position. Recently, it reached an agreement with OpenAI to become the first major content licensing partner on Sora, OpenAI’s short-form generative AI video platform. Disney has remained resilient in the highly competitive entertainment industry, supported by the box office success of its films, including recently released Avatar 3, and Zootopia 2. Meanwhile, the company’s Parks business faces the risk of losing market share to Universal’s Epic Universe theme park, which opened in Orlando early last year.
The average price of Disney’s stock for the last 52 weeks is $110.10. On Wednesday, DIS opened at $110.28 and traded almost flat in the early hours of the session.