DLTR, DG: A look at these discount stores’ expectations for the near term

Shares of Dollar Tree Inc. (NASDAQ: DLTR) and Dollar General (NYSE: DG) have dropped 14% and 13% over the past three months. The discount store chains recorded sales and comps growth for their most recent quarter, helped by traffic growth, as customers sought value against an inflationary backdrop.

Profits and margins, however, took a hit from factors like increased shrink and a higher portion of sales coming from the low-margin consumables category. Here’s a look at these companies’ expectations for the near term:

Sales

In the first quarter of 2024, Dollar Tree’s consolidated net sales increased over 4% year-over-year to $7.63 billion. Its same-store sales rose 1%, driven by a 2.1% growth in traffic, offset by a 1.1% drop in average ticket.

Dollar General’s net sales increased over 6% to $9.9 billion in Q1 2024, driven by growth in same-store sales and positive contributions from new stores. Same-store sales grew 2.4%, driven by a rise in traffic, offset by a drop in average transaction amount.   

For the second quarter of 2024, Dollar Tree expects consolidated net sales of $7.3-7.6 billion and comparable sales growth in the low single digits. For the full year of 2024, the company expects net sales of $31-32 billion and comparable sales growth in the low to mid-single digits.

Dollar General expects net sales growth of approx. 6.0-6.7% and same-store sales growth of 2.0-2.7% for FY2024. For Q2 2024, same-store sales growth is expected in the low 2% range.

Profits

In Q1 2024, Dollar Tree’s GAAP EPS rose over 2% year-over-year to $1.38 while adjusted EPS fell around 3% to $1.43. Dollar General saw its earnings fall 29% YoY to $1.65 in the first quarter of 2024.

Dollar Tree expects adjusted EPS to range between $1.00-1.10 for the second quarter of 2024 and $6.50-7.00 for fiscal year 2024. Dollar General expects EPS to range between $1.70-1.85 in Q2 2024 and approx. $6.80-7.55 in FY2024.

Stores

As part of its portfolio optimization efforts, Dollar Tree closed around 550 stores by the end of the first quarter of 2024, and it plans to close an additional 150 stores by the end of fiscal year 2024. Dollar General expects to execute 2,435 real estate projects in fiscal year 2024, including 730 new store openings, 1,620 remodels, and 85 store relocations.