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Cogeco Inc (CCA) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Cogeco Inc (TSX: CCA) Q3 2022 earnings call dated Jul. 14, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Patrice Ouimet — Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Philippe Jette — President and Chief Executive Officer

Analysts:

Maher Yaghi — Scotia Capital Markets — Analyst

Jerome Dubreuil — Desjardins Securities — Analyst

Vince Valentini — TD Securities — Analyst

Aravinda Galappatthige — Canaccord Genuity — Analyst

Matthew Griffiths — Bank of America/Merrill Lynch — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Cogeco Inc. and Cogeco Communications Inc. Q3 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Patrice Ouimet, Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Please go ahead, Mr. Ouimet.

Cogeco Inc (CCA) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Delta Air Lines, Inc. (NYSE: DAL) Q2 2022 earnings call dated Jul. 13, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Julie Stewart — Vice President of Investor Relations

Tim Mapes — Senior Vice President and Chief Marketing & Communications Officer

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

Glen Hauenstein — President

Dan Janki — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analysts:

Jamie Baker — JPMorgan — Analyst

Andrew Didora — Bank of America — Analyst

Scott Group — Wolfe Research — Analyst

David Vernon — Bernstein — Analyst

Sheila Kahyaoglu — Jefferies — Analyst

Brandon Oglenski — Barclays — Analyst

Helane Becker — Cowen — Analyst

Mike Linenberg — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Savi Syth — Raymond James — Analyst

Stephen Trent — Citi — Analyst

Duane Pfennigwerth — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Ravi Shanker — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Chris Stathoulopoulos — Susquehanna Financial Group — Analyst

Alison Sider — The Wall Street Journal — Analyst

Mary Schlangenstein — Bloomberg News — Analyst

Leslie Josephs — CNBC — Analyst

Dawn Gilbertson — Wall Street Journal — Analyst

Rajesh Singh — Reuters — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Good morning, everyone, and welcome to the Delta Air Lines June Quarter 2022 Financial Results Conference Call. My name is Cody, and I’ll be your coordinator. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, today’s call is being recorded.

I would now like to turn the conference over to Julie Stewart, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.

Julie Stewart — Vice President of Investor Relations

Thank you, Cody, and good morning, everyone. Thanks for joining us for our June quarter 2022 earnings call. Joining us today from Atlanta, our CEO, Ed Bastian; our President, Glen Hauenstein; our CFO, Dan Janki. Ed will open the call with an overview of Delta’s performance and strategy. Glen will provide an update on the revenue environment, and Dan will discuss costs in our balance sheet.

After the prepared remarks, we’ll take analyst questions. [Operator Instructions] Today’s discussion contains forward-looking statements that represent our beliefs or expectations about future events. All forward-looking statements involve risks and uncertainties that could cause the actual results to differ materially from the forward-looking statements. Some of the factors that may cause such differences are described in Delta’s SEC filings.

We’ll also discuss non-GAAP financial measures, and all results exclude special items unless otherwise noted. You can find a reconciliation of our non-GAAP measures on the Investor Relations page at ir.delta.com.

And with that, I’ll turn the call over to Ed.

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

Well, thank you, Julie, and good morning. We appreciate everyone joining us today.

In a challenging operating environment for the entire industry, I want to thank our customers for their patience and understanding as we restore the reliability that you’ve come to expect from Delta. I’ll speak more to the operation in a moment, but the good news is that we’re making great progress to deliver the best-in-class experience that our customers deserve, and I’m pleased with our July performance to date.

This morning, we reported June quarter earnings per share of $1.44 with $1.4 billion of operating income and a 12% margin on revenues that were close to 2019 levels. Results improved throughout the quarter with revenue in the month of June 4% ahead of the June 2019 number, with a June month operating margin of 16.5%. So it was only 3.5 points lower than June of 2019 despite a near doubling in fuel prices and our schedule only 82% restored.

We generated $1.6 billion in free cash flow in the quarter, which brings us close to $2 billion year-to-date, reflecting the robust demand environment and enabling further delevering as we work to regain an investment-grade balance sheet.

June quarter performance represents an important financial inflection and resulted in a profit-sharing accrual for our employees. These results are a validation of the dedication of our people who have done an amazing job under the most difficult of circumstances imaginable over the past two-and-half years.

We’re happy to have been able to reward eligible employees with a 4% raise on May 1, and we’re looking forward to Delta people celebrating well-deserved and meaningful profit-sharing payouts for years to come with our return to profitability.

Rebuilding Delta’s operation during an unprecedented surge in customer demand has been a remarkable feat, and I’m grateful to our people for everything they do on a daily basis. While the demand and revenue landscape is the best we’ve seen, the operational environment for the entire industry remains uniquely challenged. I’d like to sincerely apologize to those who have been impacted by cancellations, delays and long wait times over the last two months. This quarter’s operational performance has not been up to our industry-leading standards, and restoring operational excellence is our top priority.

Steps we’ve taken include the strategic direction to hold capacity at the June month level for the remainder of this year as well as additional investments to restore operational integrity, including earlier boarding procedures and operational buffers. We are pleased with the progress and July is off to a very good start with a 99.2% completion factor through the first 11 days of the month, which is exactly on par with the same holiday period in 2019. In fact, over the last seven days of this period, we’ve had only 25 cancellations worldwide on over 30,000 departures. Over this period, 84% of our flights have arrived on time, as measured within 14 minutes of scheduled arrival.

Since the start of 2021, we’ve hired 18,000 new employees and our active headcount is at 95% of 2019 levels, despite only restoring less than 85% of our capacity. The chief issue we’re working through is not hiring but a training and experience bubble. Coupling this with the lingering effects of COVID and we’ve seen a reduction in crew availability and higher overtime.

By ensuring capacity does not outstrip our resources and working through our training pipeline, we’ll continue to further improve our operational integrity. While our actions delayed the improvement we expect in nonfuel cost, we know the best path to driving a competitive cost structure is running a high-quality operation. And the most important point I’d leave with you is that the issues we’re facing are temporary. We are already seeing significant improvement and operating in line with our record-setting performance levels of July of 2019.

Turning to the revenue environment. Strong demand and pricing trends are continuing into the September quarter. We expect revenue to be up 1% to 5% versus 2019 with an 11% to 13% operating margin. Consumer demand continues to maintain strength as we look to the fall, and we’re seeing steady progress in the return of business and international travel.

Like all consumer businesses, we’re closely monitoring consumer behavior and have yet to see any meaningful pullback in demand. However, if demand were to weaken, I’m confident we have the tools and resources to remain profitable through the cycle. The last time an economic recession hit our business was in 2009 and absent fuel hedge losses at that time, which we no longer utilize, Delta was profitable that year. Comparing then to now, Delta’s business has structurally evolved in significant ways over the last decade, building a trusted and premium consumer brand with proven competitive advantages within a much improved industry.

Our revenues are far more diversified with much larger contributions from our premium product offerings and high-margin loyalty business as well as our growing MRO and cargo businesses. And our balance sheet and access to capital are much stronger as proven during the pandemic.

We’ve recently made major customer enhancements that will strengthen our brand for years to come, including recent openings this quarter of world-class airport facilities at LAX and New York’s LaGuardia Airport, two largest markets for travel in the country as well as new Delta Sky Clubs in key markets. We spent over a decade building our reputation as the most reliable airline globally, but we’re not only determined to deliver that same standard of excellence but are investing to bring it to an even higher level.

In the face of the pandemic, financially, we’ve been profitable over the last 12 months, with margins this summer beginning to approach 2019 levels despite meaningfully lower capacity and a doubling in fuel prices. In my opinion, a pretty remarkable turn in performance.

With our results in the first half of the year, we remain confident in our 2024 targets for earnings per share of over $7, more than $4 billion in free cash flow and a return to investment-grade metrics.

Now I’ll turn it over to Glen to talk about the revenue environment.

Glen Hauenstein — President

Thank you, Ed, and good morning, everyone. I want to start by thanking every one of our employees for their professionalism and the care they deliver to our customers every day. We are pleased with the return of demand across all categories and regions. Momentum accelerated through the June quarter, enabling the recapture of higher fuel prices.

Looking forward, we are seeing demand and pricing strength carry into the late summer and fall as demand remains strong. The success of our customer-focused strategy and strength of the Delta brand is evident in strong June quarter results across our diverse revenue streams, including premium product outperformance and a record quarter for both Amex remuneration and cargo.

We generated $12.3 billion of revenue in the June quarter and achieved a total unit revenue that was 20.5% higher than 2Q of 2019. Revenue compared to 2019 progressed from down 15% in the month of March to up 4% in the month of June, resulting in quarterly revenues that were 1% below 2019 levels. We’ve seen broad-based demand and yield momentum with each region generating positive unit revenue growth. Premium product revenue continues to outperform and is at 10 point higher than 2019 domestically outpacing the growth in Main Cabin.

Domestic consumer revenue remains healthy and is ahead of 2019 levels. International consumer revenue showed significant improvement during the quarter as travel restrictions eased and many countries removed testing requirements, including the United States.

Latin America and Transatlantic exceeded 2019 levels in June, and the Pacific is accelerating as Korea and Australia have reopened and restrictions are easing in Japan. Business travel continues to improve. During the June quarter, domestic corporate sales were 80% of 2019 levels on a 65% recovery in volume. International corporate sales improved 30 points during the quarter to 65% of 2019 levels, led by the Transatlantic where the recovery is now on par with domestic.

Our recent corporate survey results show positive corporate expectations for business travel in 3Q, with several of the least recovered sectors conveying strong optimism for increased travel this fall. As the recovery progresses in these sectors, we expect an outsized impact on our coastal hubs. Our corporate customers expressed increased plans to travel internationally in the second half of the year, given the elimination of the pre-departure test requirement for flights returning to the United States. Similar optimism was reflected in Morgan Stanley’s recent Global Corporate Travel Survey, where respondents indicated travel volumes would reach 84% of 2019 levels in the second half of 2022. This is 20 points above the June quarter volumes and over 90% by 2023.

As the leading carrier for business travel with a best-in-class product in the air and on the ground, we will benefit disproportionately as the business community continues to reconnect in person. For the September quarter, we expect revenue versus 2019 to be up 1% to 5% on capacity that is 15% to 17% lower, with total unit revenues versus 2019 improving sequentially. For the full year, we expect capacity to be 15% lower than 2019. This is a 5% reduction from our initial guidance.

As we move to the back half of the year, we expect stronger corporate and international trends to offset seasonally lower customer demand. With a strong brand and diversified revenue base, Delta is positioned to consistently deliver a revenue and profitability premium to the industry. We expect more than 60% of revenue will come from premium products and non-ticket revenue sources by 2024.

Premium continues to lead with load factors and yields higher than 2019. And as we increase the mix of premium seats in our fleet, improve the display and sales channels and see progression in the recovery of business, premium will continue to grow.

A structural shift to premium is key to managing through inflation and economic cycles. Historically, more price-sensitive products like Basic Economy, which is currently less than 10% of our sold fares, have struggled to keep up with inflation, while high-value premium offerings performed much better and have proven to be much more resilient through the pandemic.

Loyalty to the Delta brand is growing at record levels. We acquired another record number of new SkyMiles members in the quarter and achieved record spend and acquisitions on our Amex co-brand card. More than one in four new cards acquired were Platinum and Reserve cards. Our premium tier is providing another proof point on the growing demand for premium products and brands. Amex remuneration of $1.4 billion was 35% higher than the June 2019 quarter. And to put this in context, that is more than the remuneration for the full year in 2009. We’re on track to receive over $5 billion in remuneration this year from American Express, and we remain confident in our 2024 target of $7 billion.

The decommoditization of our business, combined with diversifying revenue through the growth of loyalty, MRO and Cargo have improved our financial resiliency and cash generation. We entered the second half of the year ahead of many of our commercial goals set at the Capital Markets Day, and we’re excited about the opportunities to elevate our performance by extending our advantages and leveraging the Delta platform.

Delta has been the most disciplined in restoring capacity and will remain nimble depending on the environment while staying true to our core competitive advantages.

With that, I’ll turn it over to Dan to talk about the financials.

Dan Janki — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Glen, and good morning to everyone. For the June quarter, we delivered earnings per share of $1.44, operating income of $1.4 billion and $1.6 billion of free cash flow. Our nonfuel unit cost was 21.8% higher than 2019, largely because our network is 18% smaller. Our operating margin was 11.7%. It came in below our most recent guidance as operational disruptions impacted both revenue and fuel prices moved higher. Operating cash flow of $2.5 billion was driven by solid profitability and a sequential build in the advanced ticket sales. Quarterly gross capex spend was $864 million.

With nearly $2 billion of free cash flow in the first half of the year, we repaid $2.4 billion of gross debt, ending June with $13.6 billion of liquidity and $19.6 billion in adjusted net debt. Our first half financial performance puts us ahead of our initial expectations at the start of the year, supporting our outlook for meaningful profitability in 2022. The exception to this outperformance is our nonfuel unit cost. At Capital Markets Day in December, we laid out a progression to return our nonfuel unit cost structure to within a few points of 2019 by 2024.

The actions that Ed spoke about have changed the pace of our unit cost progression but not the destination. The primary drivers are slower capacity restoration and additional investments that deliver the operational excellence. The biggest impact is in the third quarter, where we expect nonfuel CASM to be up approximately 22% versus 2019 on capacity that is 15% to 17% below 2019. For the full year, we now expect nonfuel unit costs to be approximately 8 points higher than we initially guided.

The level of capacity restoration accounts for the majority of this increase, as we are largely carrying the full cost of the airline with only 85% of our flying restored. As a result, we are not fully utilizing our assets. For example, third quarter aircraft utilization is about 10% lower than 2019. And while we have over 95% of the employees needed to fully restore capacity, we have thousands in some phase of hiring and training process. The remainder of the increase is driven by investments to support the operation, along with smaller items like higher maintenance and inflation.

Actions related to reliability include added operational buffers and overtime. Premium pay and overtime is expected to total over $700 million this year. This is 50% higher than 2019. While we’re delaying our unit cost recovery, it is pace-dependent and within our control. We remain confident in our ability to meaningfully improve our unit cost as we rebuild capacity, improve efficiency and run our operations in line with the Delta high standard.

Now moving to fuel. Second quarter fuel expense increased nearly 60% sequentially on higher prices and volume, with an adjusted fuel price per gallon of $3.82. The refinery continues to provide a hedge to historically high cracks, accounting — contributing $269 million of operating income during the quarter. This resulted in a $0.31 benefit to our adjusted fuel price per gallon. For the September quarter, we expect the adjusted fuel per gallon between $3.45 to $3.60. Including a $0.27 per gallon contribution from the refinery based on the forward curves as of last Friday, we expect fuel efficiency to be about 5% better than 2019.

Based on our September quarter outlook for revenue and costs, we expect operating margins to be between 11% and 13%. Gross capex is expected to be approximately $1.8 billion as we take more aircraft deliveries. We’ve seen some delays in deliveries and it’s possible this trend continues.

Debt reduction remains a key priority. We expect to end third quarter with adjusted net debt of approximately $20 billion. Our goal is to reduce net debt by $5 billion through 2024, bringing us back to investment-grade metrics. We remain confident in our ability to make this goal, unlocking significant equity value for our shareholders.

In closing, we have made meaningful progress in restoring our financial foundations. With this progress, our opportunities ahead and the resilient demand for air travel, we remain confident in our 2024 financial targets.

In closing, I’d like to thank the Delta people for their hard work, the service they provide our customers day in and day out. Our people will always be the Delta difference.

With that, I’ll turn it back over to Julie for questions.

Julie Stewart — Vice President of Investor Relations

Cody, can you please remind the analysts how to queue up for a question and start the Q&A?

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Absolutely. Thank you. [Operator Instructions] And we’ll take our first question from Jamie Baker with JPMorgan. Please go ahead.

Jamie Baker — JPMorgan — Analyst

Hey. Good morning, everybody. So Dan, building on the prepared remarks, what needs to happen in order to achieve the 2023 capacity plan? Being flat with 2019, you’re running well below right now, which you could see training bottlenecks presumably ease at some point, but the pilot shortage seems more acute than at Capital Markets Day. Regional is cutting back. You mentioned delivery delays. Maybe there’s a utilization issue that I’m not modeling for. I’m just trying to assess the feasibility of getting back to 2019 capacity next year and given the implication that, that would have on ex fuel CASM.

Dan Janki — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, certainly, and we can talk about the feasibility of getting back in and really the progression of nonfuel CASM. Maybe I’d start with the framework when you think about the total year with the 8 points. We had originally guided 7 to 10, pick 9 points as the starting point, you add the 8, that’s 17. And when you think about that, we did that on capacity that was 85% restored. You assume you step up to that 100%, that’s 15 points of capacity restoration. That drives 12-point improvement in that as you get that utilization of your resources and your capability.

Now as I talked about in the prepared remarks, not about the hiring, as Ed talked about, it’s really, we have 95% of the people will be substantially complete with that hiring and training as we move through the second half by year-end, so we’ll be well positioned for that 100%. Additionally, there’s 2 points in there of rebuild that we’re incurring to do that, to bring those employees on, to hire them, to train them.

And as I talked about, we’re running overtime and premium 50% higher than 2019, and that was a level that was already elevated. So you take that out, that’s another 2 points. So that’s a 14-point improvement by just better leveraging your infrastructure utilization and the sunsetting of that rebuild off that 17. And that, along with — we’re certainly going to continue to invest back in the airline.

We laid out at Capital Markets Day around the airports and that capability, continue to have that marker in there as it relates to escalation around our workforce and the components around that and managing our supplier inflation, that really puts you in that single-digit level for 2023 on a run rate basis. So it really comes back to we’re building it to be fully restored. We’ll have those assets on. It’s really then dependent on bringing that capacity online.

Jamie Baker — JPMorgan — Analyst

And that’s fully restored on a full year basis or fully restored by the fourth quarter of 2023?

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

Jamie, this is Ed. Let me jump in here for a moment. Good questions. I thought Dan did a good job laying out the — this is entirely within our control, if there’s an underlying sentiment that we’ve kind of lost something in the operating prowess, I don’t see that at all. It’s not a full year number of ’23 in terms of capacity. We’re going to pace it to demand. I think, in my opinion, by summer of ’23 would be our target to get back to 100%. I think we could do it maybe a little earlier or a little later, depending on what we see in the economy.

What happens is that the last phases of the restoration of the industry comes together. But I think we have all the piece parts together. We just are very careful that we not incur any of the disruptive influences and elements that we saw during that 6-week period from mid-May to June. And we’re going to stay within our capabilities. So I don’t think there’s anything that’s outside of our control here.

Jamie Baker — JPMorgan — Analyst

Okay. Thank you for that. And just a real quick follow-up for Glen. The strength in premium, any changes in how consumers are purchasing premium products? Is the percent sold at initial ticketing and the subsequent percent sold predeparture, is that staying the same? I’m just wondering if the inflationary backdrop is causing any changes in the buying patterns of premium. I realize the aggregate outcome remains very encouraging.

Glen Hauenstein — President

No. We had record load — paid load factors in every one of our premium cabins during the quarter. We had record yields. The travel patterns are pretty sustainable in terms of most of it still being purchased at time of purchase. Actually, the encouraging factor is the continued momentum in corporates authorizing premium travel for their employees who are traveling frequently. So as we move into September, we expect that to continue as we get back into a more seasonal business travel market.

Jamie Baker — JPMorgan — Analyst

That’s great. Thank you to all three of you. Appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you. We’ll take our next question from Andrew Didora with Bank of America.

Andrew Didora — Bank of America — Analyst

Hey. Good morning, everyone. First question for Glen. So it seems like the June trend is continuing into 3Q here. But can you comment a little bit on what you’re seeing into your September bookings and kind of how you view the pace of unit revenues throughout the quarter? I would think you’re baking in a September that is probably lower than July and August. Am I right on that? And then any thoughts that you could provide around how you’re thinking about the corporate and leisure recovery come the fall would be helpful as well.

Glen Hauenstein — President

Well, our thesis is really what I outlined in my comments that as we get towards the end of summer into the more traditional business travel season, that we’re going to see an uptick in corporate travel. And that’s been reinforced by a couple of surveys. The Delta survey, which really just closed last week, had some very encouraging statistics in that our customers are expecting that travel will pick up meaningfully as we get to the fall.

I think the other piece is the international and the rebound of international. That was delayed and came later than the rebound at domestic. And as we look out to September, we have some really very, very strong data points in terms of travel for international for September. As a matter of fact, September, what we have on the books today, which is about 60% of the total bookings for international, is at record levels much higher than what we experienced in June. So that piece, which we already have in our books is very, very strong, and then we’re just anticipating that there’s a shift from high, high demand leisure to a little bit better mix of corporate versus leisure demand in the fall.

Andrew Didora — Bank of America — Analyst

Got it. Makes sense. And then look, obviously, everyone is trying to find the cracks out there in the in-services spend. Obviously, you have a big partner in Amex that has kind of a lot of data around this. How are you working with Amex to maybe identify potential areas of weakness in the consumer? What are they telling you about how consumers could behave in the back half of this year?

Glen Hauenstein — President

Amex is our closest and best partner and we talk to them constantly and they’re not seeing any indications yet. And I think we’re all looking for it. But as of now, I think we’re enjoying the very, very robust demand that’s not only in our spend — airline spend but in our whole portfolio, Amex portfolio spend as well.

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

Andrew, this is Ed. Let me add to Glen’s comments. I spoke to some of the media last night, this morning about this as well. There is such pent-up demand for our product. You’ve got to remember, people have not had access to our product for the better part of two years many — particularly business and some higher end consumers. And we’re not going to satisfy that quench, that thirst in a space of a busy summer period.

So there’s a lot in there that is yet to come. But that is our thesis, as Glen mentioned. And yes, the data supports what we’re seeing today, but we also acknowledge that our crystal ball is only about three to four months right now and it doesn’t go all the way as far as people would like us to think. But everything we see tells us that we’ve got to run — the only fly in the ointment, in my opinion, is that we don’t run a quality operation. I mean, that will keep people from the product. And that’s why we are so focused on delivering a high-quality operation, which is exactly what our team is delivering and that we’ll continue to deliver.

And the second thing, and it’s been talked about in the industry and we talked about it last Investor Day is not just the move from goods to service spend because our economy is a lot larger today than it was in 2019, regardless of whatever you think that GDP is, whether we’re already into the technically mild recession or not at the present time. I think by most estimates, our economy is about 15% higher than what it was in 2019. And our industry is only about 90% to 95% restored. That’s a pretty big cushion or delta or hedge, depending on your point of view in terms of where the demand strength will be supported. And for Delta, it’s even lower because we’re only about 85% restored.

So when you put all those factors together, it gives us confidence that we’re going to see continuing strength. We will see some seasonal shift, as Glen mentioned. But I don’t think the season will be as pronounced as it’s been in the past. And we expect, as long as we run a high-quality operation, which we are doing and we’ll continue to do, we should be well positioned.

Andrew Didora — Bank of America — Analyst

Great. Thank you, everyone.

Operator

Thank you. We’ll take our next question from Scott Group with Wolfe Research.

Scott Group — Wolfe Research — Analyst

Hey, thanks. Good morning, guys. Dan, can you help us on the 22% CASM in third quarter going to around 10% in Q4? Can you help us sort of bridge to that? And then as I look out to the 2023 CASM guide you gave at Capital Markets Day, I understand the impact of we’ll see how much capacity we can add back. But if I look this year, CASM is 8 points worse on 5 points less capacity, so there’s, call it, 3 points of sort of underlying cost. Should we just take that 3 points and add that to 2023 or can some of that go away as well?

Dan Janki — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, two pieces. Let me bridge it first to fourth quarter and the step down. We’re going to come out, I talked about and run capacity at our June levels as we go — progress through the back half of the year. As you do that and you run that consistently, you get relative restoration in the fourth quarter. So capacity was to be stepped up to be 94% restored, a 10-point step up from the midpoint of our range. So when you do that, that’s where you get that relative improvement as it relates to capacity and efficiency and utilization relative to 2019. That, along with a step-down in some of the rebuild expenses in the quarter, that gives you your — over your 10-point improvement really gets you to that 10% level as we go into — as we go and execute through fourth quarter. That was the first one.

The second one, when you think about that, yes, there are — we’re building ahead. So some of that cost that you’re seeing on those 3 points are costs that were occurring ahead related to it. Some of it is the additional point that I talked about in rebuild. We’re incurring more overtime and more premium to run the airline this year. So you’d expect that one — those costs to come out. So it’s both making the investments in and those rebuild costs that will diminish that you’ll see improvement in.

One of those costs is we put cost in, in regards to our reporting practices and the changes associated with that. Yes, that’s an increase, but that’s going to be efficiencies for us throughout our network in regards to how we run and operate that throughout the system. And we did a lot of work — the operating teams did a lot of work to test that. validate that, and we know we’ll get those efficiencies as we go forward.

Scott Group — Wolfe Research — Analyst

Okay. Thanks. And then just second question, just more about the third quarter guide. So it sounds like June had revenue up 4% and margins of 16%, and I’m sure there was some impact from operational issues. It sounds like that’s getting better and fuel is coming down. Just I’m trying to understand the 11% to 13% margin guidance for Q3 relative to that 16% in June. So any thoughts there would be great.

Dan Janki — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

You have the —

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

Talking about the month of June.

Dan Janki — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

For the month of June. As you think about — July will be a lot like June and then you step down as you progress through. So the June, July, you get that momentum, but then you get the seasonality and the step-down that Glen talked about regarding top line as you progress through the rest of August and September.

And then the other element in there as you think about guide, we also — so that — and underneath that, remember, we’re coming off at June capacity rate. So we have underlying volume growth associated in that, about 7% to 8% associated with that. So you’re getting bridge on that.

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

I think the other thing, Scott, this is Ed in there, that we have a pretty significant profit sharing accrual also in the September quarter. In June, most of the results were offset by the loss in the first quarter of the year. So we have a profit sharing accrual but it’s modest. I think we’re looking at close to another $200 million, plus or minus, at these guidance levels of additional expense for profit sharing, which also affects a little bit of the trend there.

Scott Group — Wolfe Research — Analyst

Got it. Very helpful. Thank you, guys. Appreciate the time.

Operator

Thank you. We’ll take our next question from David Vernon with Bernstein.

David Vernon — Bernstein — Analyst

Hey. Dan, just to kind of stick on the cost outlook here. So we’re looking for up low to mid-singles, we’re ending ’22 up 18, I guess, sort of 15, 18, whatever the number is, a little bit worse than were before. Just can you help us kind of understand like are we still looking up to low to mid-single digits off of the costs that have been pulled forward? Or should we be expecting that to moderate a little bit?

And then as you think about those — the overtime and the costs that have been put in ahead of the demand recovering, is there going to be some sort of deceleration in some of that cost even kind of independent of the volume as we kind of think about the back half of this year? Or is that going to also be pushed into 2023?

Dan Janki — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

You see that step-down slightly in fourth quarter on that. And then it really, really starts to sunset as you flip the calendar and move into 2023 related to that. So you certainly do. The first part of the question, I missed the very beginning of it.

David Vernon — Bernstein — Analyst

So as you look at — we were — I think the guidance from the Capital Markets Day was up low to mid-singles on unit cost. Should we be kind of moderating that because of the 2022 sort of outperformance on cost? Or is it still sort of in that same kind of range from a directional standpoint?

Dan Janki — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes. I think it’s — again, as we talked about, the destination ’24 hasn’t changed in regards to it. It will be pace-dependent. As Ed talked about, it’s in our control, putting the cost in ahead. It will be really when that capacity comes in and the pace of that capacity that comes in that will dictate that as we progress through 2023. So we’ll have to — as we get to the end of this year, we’re going to look at that capacity and how we bring it on, and that will pace how the calendar falls out associated with it. But we expect that the leverage that we’re going to get in the incremental CASM to be right in line with where we’re expecting it. So yes, no change in leverage.

David Vernon — Bernstein — Analyst

And then — and Glen, maybe just to kind of shift gears for a second and talk about corporate. As you think about the way corporates are buying, are you seeing a return to sort of close-in travel? Or is that — has that changed a little bit, the booking windows being a little bit more elevated? And how does that think of — and how does that change the load factor you ought to be running the operation at? Or does it have any impact on that?

Glen Hauenstein — President

What we’ve seen is a little bit of an elongation of the booking cycle. I think that is also dependent on the relaxation of the cancellation fees. I think one of the things that we didn’t talk about is when you look at our quarterly results here, remember, we have no change fees, and that was $1 billion that we had to overcome in the bottom line. So I think we’re all learning what the new world is without change fees, and we’re seeing some change in travel patterns in terms of APs and in terms of stays. But I think we’ve got that well managed. And we are going to run load factors that I think are very similar to 2019 levels throughout the rest of the third quarter and likely into 4Q.

Operator

Thank you. And we’ll take our next question from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies.

Sheila Kahyaoglu — Jefferies — Analyst

Hey. Good morning, guys, and thank you. If we think about the overtime pay in the $700 million range for the full year, how much of that was incurred in the first half? And how do we think about it for the remainder of the year, just given the operational adjustments you’ve made?

Dan Janki — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Yes, it’s pretty balanced. I would say second and third quarter were the highest with it stepping down slightly that we anticipated in fourth quarter as we stabilize and run the operation.

Sheila Kahyaoglu — Jefferies — Analyst

Okay, great. And then as a follow-up to that, I appreciate you guys have the hardest job on the planet here. But how do we think about flex options as we think about labor and salaries, just the number of employees you guys have in 2023, just given the potential different economic scenarios we might have next year? How are you guys planning for that?

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

Sheila, this is Ed. Let me take a stab at that. Obviously, we haven’t given ’23-specific guidance. We’ve given you ranges and direction but we haven’t given you guidance. I’m going to defer on getting into any detail as to labor in ’23, what the cost implications are. We mentioned at the Capital Markets Day that we do have long-term cost growth built into our model, and that is true for all of our work groups. We’ll see how the year progresses. Obviously, we’re in the midst of a pilot contract negotiation, which I’m not going to speak to publicly.

So we’ll learn more as we go, but I don’t see anything to lead me to believe that the core elements of what we described back in December are going to be that much different when you get to ’24, what the trajectory is. And one other thing, I know a lot of it — Dan has been getting a lot of the questions on cost, which I fully understand. But thinking about it from our seat, the last two years, we’ve been all about trying to drive down cost. And I think our team has done a really good job. In fact, for the better part of the pandemic, we had over 50% of our cost out, which was unheard of, showing the unforeseen flexibility which we’re going to avail ourselves to once we get the operations stabilized. And my direction has been to stabilize and drive reliability. And now that we have demand like we haven’t seen ever before as well, all hands are on deck to support and serve that demand. We’re going to get to equilibrium over the course of the next 12 months, where cost and revenue and everything’s going to be in balance.

I’m confident we’re going to end up in a better net spot on at all. But when you have revenues already surpassing 2019 levels, it’s hard for the operations to make sure we have enough staff on hand and the focus there. So there’s also a lot of costs that are embedded within the system that are hard to tease out but are a function of a very, very intense period of time that we’re under.

Sheila Kahyaoglu — Jefferies — Analyst

Okay. Great. Thank you so much.

Operator

Thank you. We’ll now take our next question from Brandon Oglenski with Barclays.

Brandon Oglenski — Barclays — Analyst

Hey, Ed, maybe expanding on that answer. Obviously, it was a challenging operational period in 2Q. But you mentioned it yourself, your employment levels are close to 95% recovered. I think your own disclosure of pilot headcount is actually kind of flat with where you were in 2019. So can you speak more to maybe what unfolded? What’s changed in July? And thinking about it from a brand perspective and a premium revenue perspective, obviously, if you incur a lot more cancellations and queuing at Sky Clubs and things like that, doesn’t that erode that ability in the future? So how are you, I guess, protecting that moving forward?

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

It absolutely does erode that into the future. That’s the risk, Brandon. I agree with that. What we’ve seen in July as compared to that last six weeks at the end of the second quarter is some different scheduling practices that we’ve taken within all of the work categories, including our pilots, our flight attendants and others. We’ve made schedule adjustments as well. We’ve taken any growth out. We’re positioned not just for the next month or so. We’re positioned for the balance of this year to kind of stay where we’re at, and that level of stability gives the operations the capability to focus on the task at hand rather than continuing to invest and build on growth at the same time.

We’ll build — we’re going to have the capacity to grow when we’re ready, but we want to make sure we’re focused on serving what we have. And it’s really remarkable being in this business for 25 years now. You run a better airline, everything runs better and the efficiencies start to materialize, that over time goes away on its own. The lines start to move quicker. And we can also accelerate the training and the experience of our team. When you think about the fact that we’ve got 18,000 new people that have joined us, many of them over the last 12 months, there’s a lot of experience that they’re gaining, and that experience and scale is going to pay off. But you don’t step into these jobs and you learn it overnight.

There’s a significant learning factor that we’re also going through. And that’s — whether it’s in the airports with what you guys see or what’s going on behind the scenes in tech ops or in reservations or in all categories of employment, even technology. So you see all behind the scenes, all the moving parts of how much new folks, new leadership we have in place, it’s breathtaking. And I’m optimistic they’re doing a really good job, but there’s a pretty big learning curve. It’s hard to put a dollar amount against, but I know it’s going to really pay off as we move forward.

Brandon Oglenski — Barclays — Analyst

I appreciate that. I’ll just keep it to one.

Operator

Thank you. We’ll go ahead and take our next question from Helane Becker with Cowen.

Helane Becker — Cowen — Analyst

Thanks very much, operator. Hello, everybody and thank you very much for the time. So my one question is related to when you add time, which is what I assume you’re doing in changing the boarding process, you’re adding time between flights. Does that exacerbate pilots and flight attendants running out of time? Does it help baggage handling? Like how should we think about that? I think Dan, you already talked to the cost side. But how should we think about that from the actually day of operations side?

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

I’ll take that. It doesn’t, Helane. Obviously, it’s a fact — you got to look at the full impact on overall utilization. Obviously, utilization comes down a touch. So it’s embedded into the aircraft utilization. Dan talked about our aircraft utilizations already having been down versus ’19, and we’re capitalizing a little bit on that to take advantage of some boarding time. But the fact of the matter is that the — we were running, with the large narrow-bodies in the domestic system, too hot in the airport environment. We didn’t have enough time for our customers. And this is just recognizing the reality of the operation, which we’re already running, which enables everybody to get in position ahead of time. And yes, we’re tweaking show in times, reporting times and when the actual assets are being operated. But it doesn’t really change a lot in the dynamics. It’s going to give our people a little more time to board promptly. It’s also giving us the opportunity, which we haven’t been able to fully take advantage in the past actually to depart early when ready. And we’re seeing that in meaningful ways. It’s improving bags performance.

I think the only pinch point we’re seeing is making that we analyze make certain we had enough time to get the cleaners off the planes because we’re not going to compromise on cleaning either. And so this has been worked on for the better part of the last year. It wasn’t something we thought of overnight. And I think we’re fully plugged in across all of the operating groups, that it’s going to be a better customer experience, can be a better employee experience. And behind that, it’s going to be a better brand experience as well.

Helane Becker — Cowen — Analyst

That’s very helpful. And then just for my follow-up question is on what kind of technology can you use to speed the boarding process? I know you were working with biometrics and doing some of that leading-edge stuff pre pandemic and then even during the pandemic. But can you accelerate your IT spend to speed the process up and help day of operations, I wonder?

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

Yes, we’re doing that. We’re certain a lot of that’s on the front end coming through security. And you may have seen that we’ve added additional biometric processes and face ID and helping — working with CLEAR and TSA to get customers through the security queues faster. At boarding at the moment, I don’t see any magic bullets to get physically the number of people that we have on the plane and seated with their bags stowed that much sooner. But we’re trying to make it more comfortable process. I don’t think it’s going to be faster, but hopefully, it’ll be more comfortable.

Helane Becker — Cowen — Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We’ll now take our next question from Mike Linenberg with Deutsche Bank.

Mike Linenberg — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Yes, hey, good morning, everyone. Glen, I want to go back to the point that you made where you talked about some of the revenue segments that you were — that you focused on, to some extent, a hedge against inflation. You talked about basic economy being under 10%. How has that progressed over, say, the last few quarters as inflation has picked up and presumably some of the more price-sensitive passengers are just getting crowded out by your premium customers. Can you give us sort of a sense of how that’s trended?

Glen Hauenstein — President

Well, I think you just described what’s happened is as fares came up and as inventory controls went into place, while the fares per basic economy were filed, they were not readily available as they were squeezed off by our higher-yielding customers. So our target has been, and really, these are soft targets, but to have less than 20% of our capacity available on Basic Economy. That’s our very soft kind of macro target that we have. And that’s come down to below 10% or right around 10% as the high demand through the summer has really displaced those customers. That’s a result, not an intent.

Mike Linenberg — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Okay, great. And then can you give us a sense, if we go back to 2019 and we looked at sort of how many points of load factor on domestic flights connected to international, and sort of where we are today because I would think that there’s probably some decent upside there as you start to turn on more of Asia, for example. You are a fairly big connecting airline. Where were we then and maybe where are we now?

Glen Hauenstein — President

So the domestic portion of international journey is generally about 10% of our total capacity or less. And that’s about — it’s right now in the high single digits so that’s a couple of points of load in the domestic system.

Mike Linenberg — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Okay. All very high margin, I presume, as it comes on?

Glen Hauenstein — President

Absolutely. And the recovery has really been led by domestic premium. And now what we’re really seeing is the acceleration of international premium as we move into the late summer and the fall. So very exciting for us.

Mike Linenberg — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Very good. Thanks, everyone.

Operator

Thank you. We’ll now take our next question from Savi Syth with Raymond James.

Savi Syth — Raymond James — Analyst

Hey. Good morning. I noticed the kind of used aircraft purchases this quarter, and I was wondering if you could kind of take a step back and as we look to like 2023, ’24 kind of plan and maybe even a little bit beyond, guessing that the small RJ reduction in your fleet is probably faster than you had expected back at Investor Day. I’m just kind of curious what holes you have in the order book? Essentially, what do you need in terms of growth or replacement compared to what you have in the order book today? Like what could we expect in terms of additional either used or new aircraft that needs to be added to your outlook?

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

Hey, Savi, this is Ed. We’re reasonably good placed with the order book. Obviously, we have opportunity in the next three to five years of delivery for some additional narrow-body, large narrow-body acquisitions, and that’s something that we’re always talking to Airbus and Boeing about and whether that’s used or whether that’s new, there’s opportunity there.

On the widebodies, we have focused a lot of our energy in the last few years on the wide-body and specifically the 350 and the 330, and we’re pleased with the used 350s that we’ve acquired. And we’ve got a pretty healthy stream of wide-bodies coming. So I’d say the focus in the back end of the five-year period is on the large narrow-bodies.

Savi Syth — Raymond James — Analyst

All right. Helpful. I’ll leave it that. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We’ll take our next question from Stephen Trent with Citi.

Stephen Trent — Citi — Analyst

Good morning, everybody, and thanks for taking my question. Just one quick one here. When we look back earlier this year, there was this ongoing noise about these 5G towers getting installed in our airports. That all seemed to quiet down. And in that sort of general theme, are you seeing anything from other industries or maybe government proposals that are causing some concern at the moment? Or have these conversations, whether they’re industries, with Secretary Buttigieg and not giving you any sort of concern like that?

Peter Carter — Executive Vice President, Chief Legal Officer and Corporate Secretary

Steve, hi. It’s Peter Carter. Thanks for the question. We have a very, I would say, direct and open dialogue with the administration, with the Secretary and the FAA. And we don’t see any, I’ll say, storm clouds with respect to any of the initiatives that the government has been talking about. You may have seen that the Secretary proposed a bill of rights for passengers traveling with disabilities last Friday. That was just a restatement of existing regulations that Delta has been following. And obviously, we do everything we can to make sure that our disabled passengers are taken care of every step of the journey.

Stephen Trent — Citi — Analyst

Okay. Really appreciate the color and I will leave it at that. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We’ll take our next question from Duane Pfennigwerth with Evercore ISI.

Duane Pfennigwerth — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Hey, thanks. Almost fell asleep. Nice to speak with you both. Ed, with a longer-term view that operations will kind of normalize and clearly, there’s a lot of nonrecurring in the baseline this year that your unit costs will normalize into 2023, what sounds like a constructive view on demand, meaningful free cash flow generation this quarter. How do you and the Board think about your stock here in the 20s? I think the plan was to stick to your knitting on deleveraging. But are you shocked with where your equity is trading? And is there any increased emphasis or increased thought on buyback with your stock down here when the restrictions come off?

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Duane. Yes, I think we’re all surprised with where the stock is, for the industry, by the way, it’s not Delta-specific, is trading at. And I think it’s a function of all the distractions or noise, whatever you want to call it. We’ve got a lot of moving parts in the industry as we get through the last phases of this pandemic. And we see the whipsaw effect, whether it’s extraordinarily high revenue or high cost to serve that revenue and fuel prices.

So there’s a lot of moving parts there. We can’t do anything at the moment with respect to CARES Act limitation, so I can’t provide you any specifics on that. But we talk over the long term that we’ve got a responsibility to all constituencies, to our customers, to our employees and importantly to our owners as well as our communities. And our owners shouldn’t be forgotten about and we didn’t forget about them during the pandemic. We did not dilute. Our owner’s one of the only airlines that didn’t do that. So it’s an important point to us, but at this point in time, I really can’t speak much about that.

Duane Pfennigwerth — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Okay. And then maybe just one last one on Transatlantic. Some constructive comments from Glen, but can you talk about recovery sort of U.S. point of sale versus Europe point of sale and how you see that sort of changing over the balance of the year? Thanks for taking the questions.

Glen Hauenstein — President

Right. Well, I’m glad I got this question because I actually refreshed for it. So thank you for the question.

Duane Pfennigwerth — Evercore ISI — Analyst

You’re welcome.

Glen Hauenstein — President

I think one of the issues is with the euro perching parity is what are we seeing in terms of EU point-of-sale and EU demand set. And what I’d say is that — right now, the difference between EU point-of-sale and U.S. point-of-sale in terms of referencing back to ’19, they are almost identical in terms of the fare increases that we’ve realized.

Now one of the things I historically never understood is most things in Europe are more expensive than they are in the U.S. on a dollar-adjusted basis. Airfares in Europe to the United States were never one of those. So we’ve gotten some leverage here where we’ve gotten some nice fare initiatives and structures in place that are taking some of that disparity out of the U.S. point of origin versus the European point of origin.

So I think we like where we sit. I think the one concern is right now, we are in a high U.S. point of sale. Everybody likes to go to Europe in the summer. And as we shift to the fall, late fall, certainly that extends throughout the October season. But as we get into the November through February, I’d just like to point out, it would be a great time for you to go to Europe. And the after-Christmas sales would be very good and you’d be — your dollar would go further than ever.

So we will keep a close eye on that balance as we move in, given the fact that the euro has weakened substantially. But that’s something I think we can accommodate through capacity offering.

Duane Pfennigwerth — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

Thank you. We’ll take our next question from Ravi Shanker with Morgan Stanley.

Ravi Shanker — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Thanks. Good morning, everyone. Question for Glen or Dan. What percentage of your corporate contracts right now are still grandfather contracts, i.e., pricing from pre-pandemic levels where there could potentially be an opportunity to renew at much higher yields?

Glen Hauenstein — President

Well, most of our contracts are based off of published fares and inventory that’s available in those published fares. So it floats. And so I think what we’re seeing and when you look at 65% recovered in terms of volume and 80% in terms of sales, you see that we’re getting a lot of yield momentum on the corporate side as well. So hopefully, as we get into the fall and corporate continues to return, we can realize those increased fares that are in the market today.

Ravi Shanker — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Got it. And maybe just one follow-up. Obviously, thank you for all the commentary on how you expect 3Q to pan out. But just wanted to confirm that based on the visibility you have in the booking curve right now, which I think should give you at least 3 months of visibility, you are not seeing any drop-off in domestic leisure demand post Labor Day beyond normal seasonality. Is that a fair comment?

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

That’s fair.

Ravi Shanker — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Julie Stewart — Vice President of Investor Relations

We’ll now go to our last analyst question.

Operator

Thank you. We’ll take our final analyst question from Chris Stathoulopoulos from Susquehanna Financial Group. Please go ahead.

Chris Stathoulopoulos — Susquehanna Financial Group — Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for getting me in here. So Ed or Dan, there was some news out recently about Boeing perhaps getting close to doing a sizable [Technical Issues] order. And I understand if you don’t want to comment on it. We might hear more on Farnborough in two weeks. But that would — I think if I understand, that would put that first delivery in 2025. And I’m just trying to understand, if there’s a pilot shortage out there, the consensus view out through mid-decade, which is a gating factor for domestic ASMs, could you just sort of frame, what is the peak year, if you will, for retirements for your current pilot workforce?

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

So you raised a lot of speculation in your questions so I’ll be careful to just speak to what I can. We don’t have a massive reduction or retirement bubble in the Delta pilot. We have pilots retiring each year over the next handful of years. We were the only airline that offered a significant retirement inducement for our pilots. And close to 2,000 of our pilots took them back in the summer of 2020. And it’s easy to have a revisionist history and wonder whether we should have done that or not should have done that. But you put yourselves back in summer of 2020 when the total revenues were probably less than 20% of 2019 levels. There was no knowledge of what a vaccine could do, when it would be found, the effectiveness, etc., and how the world was going to start to reunite.

So I don’t look back with any regret at all about those decisions. That said, when you take out 2,000 pilots, you could imagine most of them are — were at the senior-most levels of the company, that causes churn at a much higher level of Delta than other airlines because you effectively wind up training everybody at some point over the following couple of years because everyone will have an opportunity to move up and move to different categories and the like. So we’ve done a good job of bringing in the next 2,000. We have many of them hired. We saw — and some to go, but we’re through much of that. I don’t see any pilot shortage issue for Delta at all. It is the place pilots want to come to. And certainly by the period of time that you were speculating on the latter part of ’25, ’26, ’27, I think we’ll be in a great spot with respect to our pilot staff.

Chris Stathoulopoulos — Susquehanna Financial Group — Analyst

Okay, I appreciate that. Just a follow-up. So your survey work, I think you mentioned in your prepared comments, is fairly constructive post Labor Day and your answer to Robbie’s question echoes that. But in your survey work, I know you do a lot of very detailed survey work. Have you looked at travelers that have not yet flown during the pandemic and for those that have, the frequency? Just trying to get a sense here for kind of look at this sort of pent-up demand from another angle using some of the survey work from the leisure side that you’ve done over the last few months.

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

Yes. The survey work Glen mentioned was largely around corporate travel that we spend an awful lot of time with. We also survey SkyMiles customers, and we have an active survey dialogue going on there. And there’s still pretty — some meaningful pent-up demand there. It’s not just people that haven’t traveled. It’s volumes of trips that we anticipate people will take looking forward as they start to catch up on all the experience and all the opportunities that they lost.

When you think about this pent-up demand, it feels — it sounds very impersonal. It actually is very personal. It’s people investing in themselves to go see friends and family and have life experience that they haven’t had time. I can’t put how many weddings are being held now. And all the reasons why people travel have not gone away. They’ve just been deferred and now they’re being accelerated in the next period of time. So whether it’s the next 12 months, 18 months, 24 months, there’s a lot of catch-up to be done, and every data point we look around indicates that. People aren’t fearful of traveling. I mean, there’s still some but it’s a significantly shrinking number. But there’s a lot of people that once they’re now out on the road, they want to get back on the road. And the only inhibitor that I see, that I hear about is running a quality operation, and we’re taking that off the table as a risk factor for our customers.

Chris Stathoulopoulos — Susquehanna Financial Group — Analyst

Thank you.

Julie Stewart — Vice President of Investor Relations

That will wrap up the analyst portion of the call. I’ll now turn it over to Tim Mapes, our Chief Marketing and Communications Officer, to start the media questions.

Tim Mapes — Senior Vice President and Chief Marketing & Communications Officer

Thank you, Julie. Cody, if we could, as we thank the analysts for their time this morning and transition to questions from the media, just remind the members of the media of what our process is, and we’ll try to get four or five questions answered while we have time here.

Operator

[Operator Instructions] We’ll take our first question from Alison Sider with The Wall Street Journal. Please go ahead.

Alison Sider — The Wall Street Journal — Analyst

Hi. Thanks so much. I was just wondering if you could talk a little bit about what you’re seeing with fares. The CPI data came out this morning and it seems to show some softening. Does that — have you seen that? Does that reflect any softening in demand or more resistance to higher fares? Or is it just fuel prices coming down?

Glen Hauenstein — President

We don’t really generally talk about future fares so I’d like to stay away from that. What we see is a very robust demand set and our ability to harness that through both pricing and inventory in the future. So I think we expect a very strong demand set to last through the remainder of the summer and into the fall. And as Ed indicated in his previous comments, we do believe there’s a lot of pent-up demand for people who maybe didn’t make it in the summer or got priced out of the summer who will be able to travel in the fall in November.

Alison Sider — The Wall Street Journal — Analyst

Okay. And then just also curious if you’re seeing any issues with replacement parts, including engines? Are you seeing any lack of availability of spare parts and is that causing any operational issues?

Dan Janki — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Certainly. When you think about the supply chain as it relates to aviation, it has been — it certainly has been challenged. It’s been well documented from that perspective. We certainly have seen disruptions. It’s forced us to think about how we — the inventory levels that we carry. We’re fortunate that our team has deep expertise and has been doing this for years, where they’re able to navigate that where it hasn’t impacted, in any way, entry into service or availability of aircraft in a material way. It’s allowed us to fly what we wanted to fly. But it’s certainly ongoing. We certainly see those disruptions. We feel them. We work closely with our OEM partners on that and to ensure that we’re at the top of the list, but we’re working proactively with them to increase the flow. But it’s day-to-day.

Alison Sider — The Wall Street Journal — Analyst

And is it especially engines or other products that have been a particular challenge?

Dan Janki — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

It cuts across both engines and components.

Operator

Thank you. We then move on to our next question from Mary Schlangenstein with Bloomberg News.

Mary Schlangenstein — Bloomberg News — Analyst

Hi. I want to try to follow-up really quickly on Ali’s question, with the CPI report showing that fares fell in June after three straight months of double-digit increases. So I know you don’t want to comment specifically on fares, but could you just comment on, is that a signal now that being able to continue to increase fares across the industry is likely being limited? And a second quick question. I wanted to see if you would comment on the report that you’re close to a deal for a dozen or so new A220s with Airbus? Thank you.

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

Hi, Mary. This is Ed. I think Glen answered it well. I didn’t look at the CPI report yet that came out this morning, but I think that measure is kind of going from month to month. And when you think about our selling season, we’re selling now into the latter part of the summer, early fall already, which seasonally is a little less amount of demand than what we’ve seen on the front end of the spring and summer surge. So I don’t — the fare environment, it continues to be healthy. It’s not something that we would talk about, but it is — you can see in our guidance for Q3, the demand is quite strong. On your question relative to future acquisitions, as you know, we don’t comment on such matters.

Mary Schlangenstein — Bloomberg News — Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We’ll take our next question from Leslie Josephs with CNBC.

Leslie Josephs — CNBC — Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Thanks for taking my question. On the training and experience backlog, can you provide a little more detail on how that affected you financially, operationally? And also where are you in hiring? Do you still — do you have any hiring goals for this year? Or do you think that the pace is going to start to slow? Anything surrounding your plans would be helpful. Thanks.

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

Yes. On the — a lot of it is in training and we’ll talk about pilots. We have an enormous amount of pilot activity and training going on. I’m not sure the exact number, but at any one point in time, we have 1,500 or more pilots in training, which is much larger than we would normally carry. And by the way, it’s not just the training because you have pilots waiting to be trained, that are sitting on reserves. So there’s a backup there as well in the process. So it really impacts your overall productivity and efficiency. That will eventually sort itself out as we move through — move the snake — the bubble through the snake here and we get to the other end of that.

It’s going on with technicians, with mechanics. It’s experience we see with our vendors, our contractors, their ability to repair parts. They’re having some of the issues with experience the same way is we have new people learning. So it touches every part of our operation. And the good news is that we’ve got all our folks. And so we’re at peak with respect to “training” and I wouldn’t call it inefficiency but the cost of efficiency. And every month that goes by, it’s going to get better.

Leslie Josephs — CNBC — Analyst

And in terms of the hiring numbers, do you expect the pace of hiring to slow for the rest of the year, whether being full or you know —

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

Yes. We’re at — as I mentioned in my remarks, we’re at roughly 95% of 2019. There’s more hiring to be done in pilots. There’s more hiring to be done in flight attendants, in mechanics. The big areas that we are hiring at much larger numbers previously were in the airports and the reservations. And in those 2 areas, we are largely where we need to be. So additional staffing, certainly, but that is largely resolved.

Operator

Thank you. We’ll take our next question from Dawn Gilbertson with Wall Street Journal.

Dawn Gilbertson — Wall Street Journal — Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Ed, you gave some really good statistics on the nascent turnaround here in July. I wondered if you or Glen or somebody could talk about the baggage handling situation. I’m just hearing anecdotal evidence, not just the Delta on some baggage handling issues, lost bags. Can you share, I mean, how is Delta doing in baggage handling and if there are trouble spots, where they are and how you’re addressing them? Thanks very much.

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

Sure, Dawn. As you can imagine, when you hit a rough patch in your operations, the bags are going to be affected probably even more so than customers. And indeed, that’s what we saw happening in May and June. That said, in July, month to date, we’re actually ahead of goal that we had set for ourselves in terms of baggage performance. It’s early but it’s a good indication. We missed our goal by a relatively modest amount in June, the month of June. But one of the things I was impressed with is the Atlanta airport, which is our biggest baggage center and our biggest customer point was actually ahead of goal for June. So the baggage issues for us are not domestic.

Domestic, our operations are running in a really great place. It’s tended to be more on the European side, where the airports — the European airports have — don’t have the staff, and they haven’t had the ability to invest ahead of time the way we’ve had here in the U.S.We’re working with our airports, with our partners, with people on the ground. We’ve gone as far as recently, we had a separate charter just to repatriate bags back to customers that have been stranded because of some of the operational issues the European airports were having. And we did that on our own nickel just to reunite or to help the customers sort their bags as quickly as possible.

Dawn Gilbertson — Wall Street Journal — Analyst

Thank you very much.

Dan Janki — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Dawn. Cody, we have time for one final question, and then we’ll turn it back over to Ed for closing comments. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. We’ll take our final question from Rajesh Singh with Reuters. Please go ahead.

Rajesh Singh — Reuters — Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking my question. We are told that Delta is in talks with Airbus to expand the existing order for A220s and a deal could be signed next week. Is this accurate and if it is, can you please share the details? Thank you.

Ed Bastian — Chief Executive Officer

We don’t comment on upcoming decisions that have yet to be taken, so I’ll leave that at that.Well, I want to thank you all for joining us today. It’s — there’s been a lot happening in our industry and in our business, and it was a very active second quarter. I’m proud of the work our team did to deliver a great financial result, a real inflection point as we coined it. And we look forward to a strong third quarter ahead. We’ll keep a close eye on the operations and encouraged with what we’re seeing. And we expect to report even better results when we get to the Q3 report in October. So thank you for joining us, and hope you have a good rest of your summer.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

J P Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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J P Morgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) Q2 2022 earnings call dated Jul. 14, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Analysts:

Steve Chubak — Wolfe Research — Analyst

Glenn Schorr — Evercore ISI — Analyst

John McDonald — Autonomous Research — Analyst

Betsy Graseck — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Jim Mitchell — Seaport Global Securities — Analyst

Ken Usdin — Jefferies — Analyst

Mike Mayo — Wells Fargo Securities — Analyst

Gerard Cassidy — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst

Erika Najarian — UBS — Analyst

Ebrahim Poonawala — Bank of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst

Matt O’Connor — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen. Welcome to JPMorgan Chase’s Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. This call is being recorded. [Operator Instructions] We will now go live to the presentation. Please stand by.

At this time, I would like to turn the call over to JPMorgan Chase’s Chairman and CEO, Jamie Dimon; and Chief Financial Officer, Jeremy Barnum. Mr. Barnum, please go ahead.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, operator. Good morning, everyone. The presentation is available on our website, and please refer to the disclaimer in the back.

Starting on Page 1. The firm reported net income of $8.6 billion, EPS of $2.76, on revenue of $31.6 billion and delivered an ROTCE of 17%. Touching on a few highlights. We had another quarter of strong performance in Markets which generated revenue of nearly $8 billion. Credit is still quite healthy and net charge-offs remain historically low. And there continue to be positive trends in loan growth across our businesses, with average loans up 7% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter.

On Page 2, we have some more detail. Revenue of $31.6 billion was up $235 million or 1% year-on-year. NII ex-Markets was up $2.8 billion or 26%, driven by higher rates and balance sheet growth. NIR ex-Markets was down $3.6 billion or 26%, largely driven by lower IB fees and higher card acquisition costs. And Markets revenue was up $1 billion or 15% year-on-year. Expenses of $18.7 billion were up $1.1 billion or 6% year-on-year, predominantly on higher investments and structural expenses, partially offset by lower volume and revenue-related expenses. And credit costs were $1.1 billion, which included net charge-offs of $657 million and reserve builds of $428 million, reflecting loan growth as well as a modest deterioration in the economic outlook.

On to balance sheet and capital on Page 3. Let’s start by talking about our plans for capital management over the coming quarters. The new 4% SCB will raise our standardized CET1 requirement to 12% effective in the fourth quarter. And the 4% G-SIB effective in 1Q ’23 further raises this requirement to 12.5%.

At Investor Day, we said that we expected SCB to be higher and made it clear that in the near term, share buybacks would be significantly reduced in order to build capital for the increased requirements. In light of the SCB coming in even higher than expected, we have paused buybacks for the near term.

As we discussed at Investor Day and as we show at the bottom of this presentation page, our organic capital generation allows us to rapidly build capital in excess of future requirements with a current target of roughly 12.5% in the fourth quarter. Any access over the regulatory requirements offers us protection against a range of economic scenarios with room to deploy capital in line with our strategic priorities. We have a long established track record of balance sheet discipline across the company, and this quarter’s RWA reduction shows evidence of this discipline.

Turning to this quarter’s results. You can see that our CET1 ratio of 12.2% and is up 30 basis points from the prior quarter. RWA was down approximately $44 billion with growth in franchise lending being more than offset by the combination of active balance sheet management and the normalization of market risk RWA from the first quarter. CET1 capital was slightly down as earnings were offset by distributions and the impact of AOCI drawdowns in our AFS portfolio.

Now let’s go to our businesses, starting with Consumer & Community Banking on Page 4. Before I review CCB’s performance, let me touch on what we’re seeing in our data regarding the health of the U.S. consumer. Spend is still healthy with combined debit and credit spend up 15% year-on-year. We see the impact of inflation and higher nondiscretionary spend across income segments. Notably, the average consumer is spending 35% more year-on-year on gas and approximately 6% more on recurring bills and other nondiscretionary categories. At the same time, we have yet to observe a pullback in discretionary spending, including in the lower income segments, with travel and dining growing a robust 34% year-on-year overall. And with spending growing faster than incomes, median deposit balances are down across income segments for the first time since the pandemic started, though cash buffers still remain elevated.

With that as a backdrop, this quarter, CCB reported net income of $3.1 billion on revenue of $12.6 billion, which was down 1% year-on-year. In Consumer & Business Banking, revenue was up 9% year-on-year, driven by growth in deposits. Deposits were up 13% year-on-year and 2% quarter-on-quarter. And client investment assets were down 7% year-on-year, driven by market performance, partially offset by flows.

Home Lending revenue was down 26% year-on-year as the rate environment drove both lower production revenue and tighter spreads, partially offset by higher net servicing revenue. And mortgage origination volume of $22 billion was down 45%.

Moving to Card & Auto. Revenue was down 6% year-on-year, reflecting higher acquisition costs on strong new card account originations and lower auto lease income, largely offset by higher card NII. Card outstandings were up 16% and revolving balances were up 9%. And in auto, originations were $7 billion, down 44% from record levels a year ago due to continued lack of vehicle supply and rising rates while loans were up 2%. Expenses of $7.7 billion were up 9% year-on-year driven by higher investments and structural expenses, partially offset by lower volume and revenue-related expenses.

In terms of actual credit performance this quarter, credit costs were $761 million, reflecting net charge-offs of $611 million, down $121 million year-on-year, driven by card, and a reserve build of $150 million in card driven by loan growth.

Next to CIB on Page 5. CIB reported net income of $3.7 billion on revenue of $11.9 billion. There were a number of notable items this quarter, including net markdowns on certain equity investments of approximately $370 million with about $345 million reflected in payments and markdowns on the bridge book of approximately $250 million in IB revenue.

Investment Banking revenue of $1.4 billion was down 61% year-on-year or down 53%, excluding the bridge book markdowns. IB fees were down 54% versus an all-time record quarter last year. We maintained our number one rank with a year-to-date wallet share of 8.1%. In advisory, fees were down 28%, reflecting a decline in announced activity which started in the first quarter. The volatile market resulted in muted issuance in our underwriting businesses. Underwriting fees were down 53% for debt and down 77% for equity.

In terms of outlook, while our existing pipeline remains healthy, conversion of the deal backlog may be challenging if the current headwinds continue. Lending revenue of $410 million was up 79% versus the prior year, driven by gains on mark-to-market hedges as well as higher loan balances.

Moving to Markets. Total revenue was $7.8 billion, up 15% year-on-year in both fixed income and equities against a strong quarter last year. In fixed income, elevated volatility drove both increased client flows and robust trading results in the macro franchise, most notably in currencies and emerging markets. This was partially offset by credit unsecuritized products in a challenging spread environment.

In Equity Markets, we had a strong second quarter. And again, increased volatility produced a strong performance in derivatives. Credit Adjustments & Other was a loss of $218 million, largely driven by funding spread widening. Payments revenue was $1.5 billion, up 1% year-on-year or up 25% excluding the markdowns on equity investments. The year-on-year growth was primarily driven by higher rates. Security services revenue of $1.2 billion was up 6% year-on-year, with growth in fees and higher rates more than offsetting the impact of lower market levels. Expenses of $6.7 billion were up 3% year-on-year, predominantly driven by higher structural expenses and investments, largely offset by lower revenue-related compensation.

Moving to Commercial Banking on Page 6. Commercial Banking reported net income of $1 billion. Revenue of $2.7 billion was up 8% year-on-year, driven by higher deposit margins, partially offset by lower Investment Banking revenue. Gross Investment Banking revenue of $788 million was down 32%, driven by lower debt and equity underwriting activity. Expenses of $1.2 billion were up 18% year-on-year, predominantly driven by higher structural and volume and revenue-related expenses. Deposits were down 5% quarter-on-quarter, driven by migration of nonoperating deposits into higher-yielding alternatives, which we expect to continue given the current rate environment. Loans were up 4% sequentially.

C&I loans were up 6%, reflecting higher revolver utilization and originations across Middle Market and Corporate Client Banking. CRE loans were up 3%, driven by strong loan originations and funding in commercial term lending and real estate banking. Finally, Credit costs of $209 million were largely driven by loan growth, while net charge-offs remain historically low.

And then to complete our lines of business, AWM on Page 7. Asset & Wealth Management reported net income of $1 billion with pretax margin of 31%. For the quarter, revenue of $4.3 billion was up 5% year-on-year, driven by growth in deposits and loans as well as higher margins, partially offset by investment valuation losses versus gains in the prior year. In addition, reductions in management fees linked to this year’s market declines have been almost entirely offset by the removal of most money market fund fee waivers. Expenses of $2.9 billion were up 13% year-on-year, largely driven by investments in our private banking advisor teams, technology and asset management as well as higher volume and revenue-related expenses. For the quarter, net long-term inflows of $6 billion were driven by equities.

AUM of $2.7 trillion and overall client assets of $3.8 trillion, down 8% and 6% year-on-year, respectively, were predominantly driven by lower market levels, partially offset by net long-term inflows. And finally, loans were up 1% quarter-on-quarter while deposits were down 7% sequentially, driven by seasonal client tax payments.

Turning to Corporate on Page 8. Corporate reported a net loss of $174 million. Revenue was $80 million versus a loss in the prior year. NII was $324 million, up $1.3 billion, predominantly due to the impact of higher rates. And expenses of $206 million were lower by $309 million year-on-year.

Next, the outlook on Page 9. You will recall that at Investor Day, we expected NII ex-Markets for 2022 to be in excess of $56 billion. We now expect it to be in excess of $58 billion, reflecting Fed funds reaching 3.5% by year-end. We still expect adjusted expense to be approximately $77 billion and the card net charge-off rate to be less than 2% for 2022.

So to wrap up, the company’s performance was strong again this quarter in what was a complex operating environment. As we look forward, we are mindful of the elevated uncertainty in the global economy, but we feel confident that we are prepared and well positioned for a broad range of outcomes.

With that, operator, please open up the line for Q&A.

Questions and Answers:

 

Operator

Please stand by. And the first question is coming from Steve Chubak from Wolfe Research. Please proceed.

Steve Chubak — Wolfe Research — Analyst

Hey. Good morning, Jeremy. Good morning, Jamie. I wanted to start off with a question on capital targets. I don’t believe you’ve provided an update on your firm-wide CET1 target of 12.5% to 13%. And given the new higher SCB, future increases in your G-SIB surcharge to 4.5%, your regulatory minimum is slated to increase beyond 13% by 2024, which is also beyond the horizon reflected on Slide 3. And just given that high regulatory minimum, elevated SCB volatility in recent years, what do you believe is an appropriate capital target for you to manage to from here over the long term?

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Yes, Steve, good question. So obviously, you’re right in the sense that we didn’t talk about 2024 on the slide. And as you note, have 2 G-SIB bucket increases coming, one in the first quarter of ’23 and the other one in the first quarter of ’24. So we had worked all that out on Investor Day and talked about 12.5% to 13% target, which implies sort of a modest buffer to be used flexibly based on what we expected would be some increase in SCB. Obviously, the increase came in a bit higher than expected.

So for now, we’re really focused on 1Q ’23. Of course, all else equal, you would assume that, that 12.5% to 13% for 2024 would be a little bit higher. But there is another round of SCB, and that’s a long way away. And as you know and as you can see, there’s a lot of organic capital generation. So we’ll kind of cross that bridge when we come to it.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

And we intend to drive that SCB down by reducing the things that created it.

Steve Chubak — Wolfe Research — Analyst

Fair enough. And just for my follow-up, on the loan growth outlook. Loan growth continues to surprise positively. Certainly the tone, Jeremy, that you conveyed was quite constructive despite the challenging macro backdrop. But with companies just citing higher inventory levels, declining personal savings rates, growing inflationary pressures, whole list of potential headwinds that could negatively impact loan growth from here, I was hoping you could just speak to the outlook for loan growth across some of the different businesses. And what do you see as a sustainable run rate of loan growth over the medium term?

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Yes. So we’ve talked, as you know, Steve, about sort of a mid — high single digits loan growth expectation for this year. And that outlook is more or less still in place. Obviously, we only have half the year left. We continue to see quite robust C&I growth, both higher revolver utilization and new account origination. We’re also seeing good growth in CRE. And of course, we continue to see very robust card loan growth, which is nice to see. Outlook beyond this year, I’m not going to give now. And obviously, as you note, it’s going to be very much a function of the economic environment, so —

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. The only thing I would like to add is that certain loan growth is discretionary and portfolio-based, think of mortgages, and there’s a good chance we’re going to drive it down substantially.

Steve Chubak — Wolfe Research — Analyst

Fair enough. Thanks so much for taking my questions.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Steve.

Operator

The next question is coming from Glenn Schorr from Evercore ISI. Please proceed.

Glenn Schorr — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Hi. Thanks very much. I wonder if you could just talk to how you balance it all. Meaning JPMorgan’s always growth-minded. You underwrite for returns over the cycle, I get that. But is — given some of the potential bad stuff going on in the world that you’ve noted in some of the articles you’ve been in and at the conference, is there any point where that rougher outlook has you tightening the underwriting box to build capital and liquidity faster? Or do you think you can get there just through what you’ve laid out today on the buyback pause?

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Yes. No. So I mean, look, I think all of these things are true at the same time, right? So first of all, as you can see on Page 3, the organic capital generation enables us to build very quickly to get to where we need to be with a nice appropriate buffer on time, if not early. At the same time, as Jamie has noted, obviously in this moment, we’re going to scrutinize even more aggressively than we always do, elements of our lending which are either low-returning or have a low client nexus or both. We do that all the time anyway. But of course, in this moment, we’re going to turn up the heat on that a little bit. In terms of underwriting, as you say, we do underwrite through the cycle. I think we feel comfortable with our risk appetite and our credit box. And I don’t think we expect any particular change there.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. And the only thing I would add is that certain, obviously, risks that we take kind of price themselves. So if you look at our bridge book, it’s smaller than it was because we priced ourself out of the market. And that was a good thing because a lot of people can lose a lot of money there, and we lost a little. And so we are very conscious of that kind of thing all the time.

Glenn Schorr — Evercore ISI — Analyst

I appreciate that. And did you all consider a CECL reserve and increasing the probability to the poor scenario in this quarter? And just curious on how you thought about that. Thanks.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, but we didn’t do it. And obviously, what we do in the future quarters will remain to be seen.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Yes. And Glenn, just remember that we did do that last quarter, right? So we already introduced a sort of skew to the outlook beyond what’s implied by the market to reflect our own slightly more negative view. And in a sense, arguably, we were sort of early on that, so it really wasn’t necessarily this quarter.

Glenn Schorr — Evercore ISI — Analyst

All right. Thank you, both.

Operator

The next question is coming from John McDonald from Autonomous Research. Please proceed.

John McDonald — Autonomous Research — Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Jeremy, I was wondering if you could talk about the deposit trends you’re seeing, the differences between commercial deposits, wealth management and retail in terms of flows and repricing pressures.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Great question, John. And I think you’re right to break it down by the different segments because we are seeing different dynamics there. So on the wholesale side, you do see some lower deposits, some deposit attrition. And that is entirely expected and part of the plan in the sense that, for client reasons, we had slightly higher appetite, especially in parts of the commercial bank for nonoperating deposits. Knowing fully that our pricing strategy, as rates went up, was going to be the not pay up. And therefore, we expected the attrition from those — from that client base. And so we’re seeing that, and that’s actually something that we want, all else equal. And it’s playing out in line with expectations.

You do see a little bit of a decline or a little bit of a headwind in Wealth Management. I think that’s just seasonal tax payments being a little bit higher than usual. And then on the consumer side, we’re really not seeing much at all. So that remains strong. We’re not seeing any attrition there, and it’s early in the cycle to really be observing much one way or the other from a pricing perspective.

John McDonald — Autonomous Research — Analyst

Okay. And then as a follow-up, in terms of the updated NII outlook, you had talked about an exit rate in the fourth quarter of about $66 billion at Investor Day. Just kind of wondering what that looks like and what kind of fading benefit from rate ex do you have assumed in your outlook.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Yes. So the $66 billion number, if you want, kind of to put a number in, you can use something like $68 billion, $68 billion-plus, something like that. Obviously, we’re annualizing one quarter, so there can always be noise in there. But that seems like a good number to us. That’s consistent with the increase for the full year. And sorry, John, can you repeat your other question?

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

2023.

John McDonald — Autonomous Research — Analyst

Just deposit betas, yes.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Yes, yes, yes. So in terms of ’23, we had talked at Investor Day about how we saw upside into 2023 from that fourth quarter run rate. And that more or less remains true. There is some upside. Obviously, we’re starting from a higher launch point, higher rates and less so after the CPI trend, but there have been moments where there were cuts in the 2023 Fed expectations. So that could have some impact on the dynamic. Obviously, this is all in an environment, very volatile implied, but the core view of some upside from that fourth quarter run rate into 2023 is still in place.

John McDonald — Autonomous Research — Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is coming from Betsy Graseck from Morgan Stanley.

Betsy Graseck — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Hi. Good morning.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Hey, Betsy.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Hi, Betsy.

Betsy Graseck — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Jamie, you mentioned, just on the SCB earlier, that you intended to reduce it by reducing the things that caused it to rise. Could you give us a sense as to what you saw in the results that you got that drove that SCB up? Because I talked to folks to say it’s a black box. So it would be helpful to understand what you see as what the drivers were to that SCB increase.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

First of all, it’s public. So you can actually go see what drives it, the global market shock and credit losses and stuff like that. And we don’t agree with the stress tests. It’s inconsistent. It’s not transparent. It’s too volatile. It’s basic, capricious, arbitrary. We do 100 a week, and this is one. And I need to drive capital up and down by 80 basis points. So we’ll work on it. We haven’t made definitive decisions. But I’ve already mentioned about we dramatically reduced RWA this quarter. We may do that again next quarter. Probably going to drive down mortgages, and we’ll probably drive that other credit too that creates SCB.

So I’m not going to go into specifics on that. It’s easy for us to do. You’ve seen us do it before. We’re going to drive out non-IB deposits. It creates no risk to us, but it adds to G-SIFI and various things. And so we’re going to manage the balance sheet, get good returns, have great clients. And not worried about it, we just want to get there right away. I don’t want to sit there and dawdle. I just — that’s the rule, they gave it to us, we’re going.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Betsy, maybe I’ll just jump in a little bit on the black box.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

There’s another very important point for shareholders. That number, when they — that doesn’t even remotely — the stress loss doesn’t even remotely represent what happened under that kind of scenario. And I’m not saying the Fed says it should or shouldn’t. But I would tell you, we’d make money under that scenario. We wouldn’t lose — I think they had us losing $44 billion. There’s almost no chance that, that would be true. And I just — and I feel bad for the shareholders because people look at that and say, “Well, what’s going to happen?” And it buys us good evidence. We didn’t lose money after Lehman. We didn’t lose money in the great — what just happened. We didn’t lose money, great financial recession. The company’s has got huge underlying earnings power and consistent revenues in CCB, asset management, custody, payment services. And then we have some kind of fairly volatile streams.

Now we’ve got the CECL, which obviously can go up or down quite a bit. But again, that’s an accounting entry. And so we feel in very good shape. We just have to hold a higher number now, and we’re going to go there.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

And Betsy, maybe I’ll just comment briefly on the black box point. Because as Jamie noted, the SCB is quite volatile, and I think you see that across the industry. And it’s — you have to — we feel very good about building quickly enough to meet the higher requirements. But they are pretty big changes that come into effect fairly quickly for banks, and I think that’s probably not healthy. And the amount of transparency, there is a lot of information released, as Jamie says. But since the SCB is really a quantity that gets measured to the peak drawdown period, and that information does not get released, it winds up being really very hard in any given moment to understand what’s actually driving it. And that combination of suboptimal transparency and high volatility is really our central criticism, I guess I would say. But nonetheless, you got capital generation —

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. This got bad effects for the economy because, I just said, we’re going to drive down this and drive down this. It’s not good for the United States economy. And in the mortgage business in particular, is bad for lower-income mortgages, which hurts lower income, minorities and stuff like that because we haven’t fixed the mortgage business. And now we’re making it worse. There’s no real risk in it, it’s not a benefit to JPMorgan, but it hurts this country, and it’s very unfortunate.

Betsy Graseck — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

I hear you on all that. And the mortgage comment you made earlier was about shrinking mortgage growth rates? Or shrinking the balances of mortgages that you have on the books?

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

The balance — well, no, we’ll originate, but the balances in the books will probably come down. And look, we reserve the right to change that. But that’s a portfolio decision. And if it doesn’t make sense to own mortgage, then we’re not going to own them.

Betsy Graseck — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Yes. and would you reduce the buffer? I mean, in the past, Jamie, you’ve talked about, hey, as these required capital ratios increase relative to the risk in your business staying more consistent, then, you’ve said before, that you may operate with less of a buffer. Could you unpack that a little bit?

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

We’re going to keep a buffer. I’m not even sure what the SCB means at this point. We’re not going to go below any regulatory minimum. And if we have to, we’ll just drive down credit more to create what we got to create. It’s a terrible way to run a financial system, and we owe you more on that, what we think that buffer should be because we have so much — what I think is so much excess capital. It just causes a huge confusion about what you should be doing with your capital. But just keep in mind one thing, we’re earning 70% tangible equity. We can continue doing that.

The company is in great shape. We’re going to serve our clients and manage the hell out of the rest of the stuff. We still think we have great businesses and stuff like that, and that’s what we’re going to do. Most of this stuff doesn’t create any additional risk at all, it just creates capital.

Betsy Graseck — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

All right. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is coming from Jim Mitchell from Seaport Global Securities. Please proceed.

Jim Mitchell — Seaport Global Securities — Analyst

Hey. Good morning. Maybe just on expenses. If I kind of look at the first half with the slowdown in investment banking, I think you’re annualized less than $76 billion, but you’re still targeting $77 billion, is that implication of just higher investment spend in the second half? Or just uncertainty around getting the pipeline completed or not and just assuming it might get done until we know better?

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Yes, Jim, good question. We’ve looked at that, too. It’s definitely more of the former than the later. In other words, $77 billion is the number that we see right now and the number that we believe. And we can see in our outlook a bunch of factors driving up second half expense, including deal, M&A closing and adding to the run rate; as well as continued execution of our investment plans, resulting in increased headcount probably at a faster pace as we kind of have ramped up our hiring capacity and so on. So I wouldn’t draw any conclusions about lower than $77 billion based on the first half numbers.

Jim Mitchell — Seaport Global Securities — Analyst

Okay. Great. And then just maybe on credit. It continues to look, I guess, very good, whether it’s on the consumer side or commercial side. Are you — we don’t really see it, but are you starting to see any initial cracks in credit or strains in the system?

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Look, I think the short answer to that question is no. Certainly not in any of our reported actual results for this quarter. The place that everyone —

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Actually excellent.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Right, exactly. Obviously, running still well below normal levels from the pre-pandemic period. But if you really want to kind of turn up the magnification on the microscope and look really, really, really closely, if you look at cash buffers in the lower-income segments and early delinquency roll rates in those segments, you can maybe see a little bit of an early warning signal to the effect that the burn-down of excess cash is a little bit faster there. Buffers are still above what they were pre-pandemic, but coming down. And that absolute numbers for the typical customer are not that high. And you do see those early delinquency buckets still below pre-pandemic levels, but getting closer in the lower-income segment.

So if you wanted to try to look for early warning signals, that’s where you would see it. But I think there’s really still a big question about whether that’s simply normalization or whether it’s actually an early warning sign of deterioration. And for us, as you know, our portfolio is really not very exposed to that segment of the market. So not really very significant for us.

Jim Mitchell — Seaport Global Securities — Analyst

Right. So prime is still holding up quite well?

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Yes.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Looking better.

Operator

The next question is coming from Ken Usdin from Jefferies. Please proceed.

Ken Usdin — Jefferies — Analyst

Yes. Hey, guys. Good morning. Just a follow-up on the points about managing the balance sheet and capital and RWAs. How do you think about your ability to manage that RWA output and dimensionalizing how, if at all, it might impact either the net income — outcome or the ROTCE outcome as you look forward?

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Just very roughly, we have a tremendous ability to manage it. I can think we do without affecting our ROTCE targets and stuff like that. Obviously, it will affect NII a little bit and capital generation a little bit, all stuff like that. But all told, we’re going to manage out of it and we’ll be fine.

Ken Usdin — Jefferies — Analyst

Got it. Okay. That’s a fair point. And then just second one on cards. Card revenue rate continues to slip even with the NII benefit. Obviously, you’ve got the denominator increase in there, too, and spend versus land. Can you just help us understand the dynamics underneath card revenue rate and where you expect it to go from here? Thanks.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Yes, sure. So on Card revenue rate, we’d said that we thought 10% was a reasonable number for the full year, and it’s running a little bit lower right now. And I think the current level — but where is it, Michael? 9.6 or something is probably the right number for the full year at this point. And really, the difference is driven by a couple of factors. The main one is that while the growth in revolve is basically still in place, our view that we would see normalization in revolve balances happening towards early — beginning of next year, the starting point of that did get slightly delayed by Omicron by about 6 weeks. And so that, all else equal, is a little bit an NII headwind relative to what we’d expected, but still obviously very robust —

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

And can I just add a little bit on — because I know I’m harping on mortgage a little here, but I just want to explain it. Because — if you go to Europe, okay, the capital held against mortgage is like a fifth of what we have to hold here. And we can obviously manage that. And standardized risk-weighted assets do not represent returns or risk. So there are a lot of ways to manage it. And we’re not — there’s no securitization market today. So our view would change if there was a securitization market. We might do something different. But by not owning it, buying it, signing it, hedging it, swapping it, there are a million ways to manage it without really affecting a lot of your risk of returns.

And so it’s unfortunate because I think this is all kind of a waste of time in terms of serving our client. Our job is to serve clients through thick or thin, good or bad, with what they need and how they need it. And now we spend all the time talking about these ridiculous regulatory requirements.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Right. So yes, and just to finish on card. So slightly lower NII just from the Omicron delay. And that slightly better-than-expected new client acquisition is a driver there. And then there’s some subtle kind of funding effects from the higher rate environment contributing to it as well.

Ken Usdin — Jefferies — Analyst

Okay. Thanks a lot.

Operator

The next question is coming from Mike Mayo from Wells Fargo Securities. Please proceed.

Mike Mayo — Wells Fargo Securities — Analyst

Hi. Good morning. Could you help me reconcile your words with your actions? After Investor Day, Jamie, you said a hurricane is on the horizon. But today, you’re holding firm with your $77 billion expense guidance for 2022. I mean, it’s like you’re acting like there’s sunny skies ahead. You’re out buying kayaks, surfboards, wave runners just before the storm. So is it tough times or not?

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Now let me — we run the company. We’ve always run the company consistently, investing, doing this stuff through storms. We don’t like pull in and pull out and go up and go down and go into markets, out of markets through storms. We manage the company, and you’ve seen us do this consistently since I’ve been at Bank One. We invest, we grow, we expand, we manage through the storm and stuff like that. And so — and I mentioned to all of you on the media call, but there are very good current numbers taking place.

Consumers are in good shape. They’re spending money. They have more income. Jobs are plentiful. They’re spending 10% more than last year, almost 30% plus more than pre-COVID. Businesses, when you talk to them, they’re in good shape, they’re doing fine. We’ve never seen business credit be better ever like in our lifetimes. And that’s the current environment.

The future environment, which is not that far off, involves rates going up maybe more than people think because of inflation, maybe deflation, maybe a soft — there might be a soft landing. I’m simply saying, there’s a range of potential outcomes, from a soft lending to a hard lending, driven by how much rates go up; the effect of quantitative tightening; the effect of volatile markets; and obviously, this terrible humanitarian crisis in Ukraine and the war, and then the effect of that on food and oil and gas. And we’re simply pointing out, those things make the probabilities and possibilities of these events different.

It’s not going to change how we run the company. The economy will be bigger in 10 years. We’re going to run the company. We’re going to serve more clients. We’re going to open our branches. We’re going to invest in the things. And we’ll manage through that. We do — if you look at what we do, our bridge book is way down. That was managing certain exposures. We’re not in subprime fundamentally. That’s managing your exposures. So we’re quite careful about how we run the risk of the company. And if there was a reason to cut back on something, we would. But now that we think it’s a great business that’s got great growth prospects, it’s just going to go through a storm. And in fact, going through a storm, we will — that gives us opportunities, too. I always remind myself, the economy will be a lot bigger in 10 years, we’re here to serve clients through thick or thin, and we will do that.

Mike Mayo — Wells Fargo Securities — Analyst

So clearly running the company for the next five to 10 years. If we have a recession in the next five to 10 months, how does technology help you manage through that better? Whether it’s credit losses, managing for less credit losses, expenses, more flexibility, more revenues, maybe gaining market share. What’s the benefit of all these technology investments if we have a recession over the next —

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Mike, I think we gave you some examples at Investor Day. For example, AI, which we spend a lot of money on. We gave you a couple of examples, but one of them is we spent $100 million building certain risk and fraud systems so that when we process payments on the consumer side, losses are down $100 million to $200 million. Volume is way up. That’s a huge benefit. I don’t think you’d wants to stop doing that because there’s a recession. And so — and plus, in a recession, certain things get cheaper, branches are enormously profitable, bank is enormously profitable.

We’re going to keep on doing those things. And we’ve managed through recessions before, we’ll manage it again. And I’m quite comfortable we’ll do it quite well. We stop-starting on recruiting or training or technology or branch, right, that’s crazy. We don’t do that. We’ve never done that. We didn’t do it in ’08 and ’09. And it puts us in quite good stead in terms [Speech Overlap] yes.

Mike Mayo — Wells Fargo Securities — Analyst

The only other thing is just market revenues are a lot weaker, right? I mean, the market outlook is worse. And so we know you’ve had a structural spending. So when all else equal, that would be a little bit less then.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

But that’s — yes, that’s very performance-based, too. And again, Mike, the way I look at it a little bit, in 15 years, the global GDP — or 20 years, the global GDP, global financial assets, global companies, companies over $5 billion will all double. That’s what we’re building for. We’re not building for like 18 months.

Mike Mayo — Wells Fargo Securities — Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is coming from Gerard Cassidy from RBC Capital Markets. Please proceed.

Gerard Cassidy — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst

Thank you. Good morning, guys. Jeremy, you touched on the deposit commentary a short while ago. Can you elaborate on QT and the impact that you’ve seen? Now granted that I know June was not full QT of $95 billion a month. But can you guys give us a flavor? And I think, Jamie, you mentioned that — if I heard it correctly, that maybe $300 billion to $400 billion of deposits could outflow over time, I am assuming, due to QT. But can you guys elaborate what you saw in June? Is it tracking the way you think it’s going to be? And any further outlook for what the deposits could be over the next 12 months due to QT.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Gerard, so as you know, QT just started. So I think it’s not the sort of thing where you can say I expect this exact outcome and then sort of track it sector by sector because you can see the clear impact on system-wide deposits, but that also interacts with RRP and TGA and stuff like that. And so how that flows into the banking system and then to any individual bank across the wholesale and consumer segments is kind of a tricky thing. So it’s early on that. But at a high level, and your comment to what Jamie said before are right.

The story remains true, which is that depending on how QT interacts with RRP and loan growth in particular, you could see some decline in deposits in the banking system, and we would see our share of that. But we would expect that to primarily come out of wholesale and primarily come out of the non-operating and sort of less-valuable portions of our deposit base. While in consumer, while you could in theory have a little bit of a headwind there, we feel pretty good about our ability to keep those levels pretty steady, based on the strength of the franchise and the ability to take share.

Gerard Cassidy — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst

Very good. And then as a follow-up, I don’t believe you guys disclosed the outstandings in the bridge book. But two questions. And Jamie, you’ve been very clear about this in the last 10 years, how you’ve derisked the balance sheet, and you mentioned that already today. Can you just give us some color on how different it is today from ’08, ’09? Just so investors know that it is meaningfully different. And second, what caused the write-down in the bridge book this quarter?

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

So if you go back to ’07, I think, the whole Street bridge book was $480 billion. I think the whole Street bridge book today is under $100 billion or under $100 billion.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Yes. It’s like 20%.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Our percent of that bridge book has come down substantially just in the last 12 months. And that’s really just underwriting loan by loan by loan, and you win some, you lose some. And if you guys look at high-yield spreads and stuff like that, bonds are down 6%, that’s what you see. So you have some flex, you don’t have some flex. And we’re big boys, we know that. And there was write-downs of a couple of bridge loans. They’re not huge. They’re just — I think they were in the Investment Banking line.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Yes. It’s in the IB revenue line, and there’s a small amount in the Commercial Bank as well. But as you said, Jamie, and as Daniel also mentioned on Investor Day, I think we made conscious choices here to dial back our risk appetite here and accepted some share losses in leveraged finance. So we feel good about where we are. We’re still open for business for the right deals at the right risk appetite on the right term, absolutely. But we’ve been careful.

Gerard Cassidy — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst

Very good. Thank you.

Operator

The next question is coming from Erika Najarian from UBS. Please proceed.

Erika Najarian — UBS — Analyst

Hi. I just had a few follow-up questions. The first is on balance sheet management. Jeremy, the illustrative path that you set forth on Slide 3, does that include RWA mitigation? And as we think about the $58 billion-plus in updated NII guide, what kind of deposit growth does that assume? You noted that part of the SCB mitigation is to drive out non-operating deposits. Just wanted to understand what the assumption was there as well, please.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Yes, Erika, sure. So first point, you have to turn up your magnifying glass. But if you look at Footnote 5 on Page 3, you can see that right at the end of there, it assumes flat RWA in the projection. So — and I think within that, who knows what the exact mix will be? And you’ve heard Jamie’s comments on that. But if you look at the table above, you see that you’ve got the usual moving parts. We’ve got organic loan growth that we want, that’s been profitable on its own or part of important relationships that we’d like to see continue to happen. Some of it is a little bit passive. We can’t really control it, it moves up and down as a function of factors like VAR. And then there’s the mitigation piece of it, which we’re going to turn up the scrutiny quite intensely, as I said before, on lower-returning, lower client nexus or both.

So across those three bits, we’ll see how it goes. But as Jamie said, we feel pretty confident here. In terms of deposits, at this point, deposit growth is probably less of a driver overall, looking forward, of the NII outlook. Our deposit outlook remains more or less the same that I said before and that we’ve talked about at Investor Day, which is we do expect to see some attrition in wholesale, we expect consumer to be relatively stable, and we’ll see how it goes.

Erika Najarian — UBS — Analyst

Got it. And my follow-up question is for Jamie. Jamie, we’ve heard your caution about the economy. And I think there’s a bigger debate on how the U.S. consumer is going to be impacted in light or in context of a downturn. The statistics that Jeremy laid out imply a pretty healthy starting point for the consumer that you bank. And the reserve build for loan growth in card and the less than 2% loss rate in card lead us to believe that your consumer is still okay. As you think about the various scenarios and you think about the realistic range of outcomes, how does the U.S. consumer perform? Because it feels like that’s the big wildcard. And we’ve seen the journal term a job-full recession. I just wanted to get your thoughts there.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. So first, I just want to point out that, on that chart, that’s not a forecast for what it is going to be at the end of the quarter. So we’re going to — if you’re going to pencil some of your models, it’s 12.5% on December 31, and it’ll probably be 13% at the end of the first quarter. And because obviously, we use capital for a whole bunch of different reasons. And the consumer, I feel like a broken record.

The consumer right now is in great shape. So even we go into a recession, they’re entering that recession with less leverage, in far better shape than they’ve been — did in ’08 and ’09, and far better shape than they did even in 2020. And jobs are plentiful. Now of course, jobs may disappear. Things happen. But they’re in very good shape. And obviously, when you have recessions, it affects consumer income and consumer credit.

Our credit card portfolio is prime. I mean, it’s exceptional. But again, we’re adults in that. We know that if you have a recession, losses will go up. We prepare for all that, and we’re prepared to take it because we grow the business over time. We’re not going to just immediately run out of it. And so I think it’s great the consumer’s is in good shape. And it sounds excellent that — I like the fact that wages are going up for people at the low end. I like the fact that jobs are plentiful. I think that’s good for the average American, and we should applaud that. And so they’re in good shape right now.

Erika Najarian — UBS — Analyst

Thanks for that.

Operator

The next question is coming from Matt O’Connor from Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Matt, I don’t know if you’re on — yes.

Operator

Yes. The next question is coming from Ebrahim Poonawala from Bank of America Merrill Lynch. Please proceed.

Ebrahim Poonawala — Bank of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst

Good morning. I guess just one for — a couple of follow-ups, Jeremy. In terms of the markets have gone very quickly from pricing in a ton of rate hikes to potentially pricing in rate cuts next year. Just talk to us, like how that’s informing your ALCO balance sheet management as you think about hedging downside risk from lower rates 12 to 18 months out? Like should we expect you to add duration or do anything synthetic to protect against lower rates?

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

We’re going to keep that to ourselves.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Yes, yes. But I don’t know, maybe if you want a little bit of general color about how we’re thinking about the portfolio. I do think —

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Go ahead.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Yes, okay. I’ll keep it brief. The — on duration, I think at this level of rates, also with, very quickly, cash yields being roughly not that different from 10-year yields. The question of duration adding or not is just generally less important for us. Then the other piece of it is whether there’s the opportunity to deploy cash into non-HQLA securities broadly into spread product. And obviously, the spread product is more attractive right now. But as we’ve been talking about a lot on this call, the priority right now is to build capital. So that will be something for later, I would say.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

And I should just point out, the forward curve has been consistently wrong in my whole lifetime. We don’t necessarily make investments based on the forward curve. And second, we’ve always told you that we use the portfolio and other things to manage the broad range of outcomes, not just to try to add NII. So if you said add NII next quarter, yes, we could do that. That would be managing the broad outcome of potential outcomes here, which is to protect the company through all possible outcomes.

Ebrahim Poonawala — Bank of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst

That’s helpful. And just one follow-up on credit. I heard your comments on the consumer. If we enter some version of a mild recession, like if you had to pick one or two areas, where do you think losses would be driven by? Is it on the commercial side? Is it CRE? Like how do you expect that downturn to kind of play out?

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Did you — I think at Investor Day, you had a chart that showed through-the-cycle losses.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Yes.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. So I mean, I would just go back to that. And we showed what we think through-the-cycle loss would be for credit cards, C&I and a bunch of other things. And obviously, through-the-cycle is an average, and you can kind of double that from — okay.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Yes. And that showed exceptionally low losses in wholesale. So whether or not that’s a prediction of the future or not, but yes.

Ebrahim Poonawala — Bank of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Operator

And the next question is coming from Matt O’Connor from Deutsche Bank. Please proceed.

Matt O’Connor — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Hi. Sorry about that. I don’t know how I got disconnected. Sorry if I missed this, but if we think about provisioning or reserving for a moderate recession, what’s the best guess on how much that might be? I think for COVID, it was around $14 billion ex-CECL. But obviously, you alluded to the consumer being better. The loan mix has changed. There’s lots of puts and takes. But how would you frame kind of total reserve sales for moderate —

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Let me say it very simply for you. In COVID, we got to 15% unemployment within three months. And in two quarters, we added $15 billion, which we can easily handle. That is clearly — I was put — that was almost at the worst case. It will clearly be a lot less than that. And you guys can look at the things yourselves. Every 5% is another $500 million or something like that if you change your odds, and so on.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Yes. I mean, we think the current reserve — the current allowance, we think, is conservatively appropriate for a range of scenarios. And as you know, it’s already kind of skewed to the downside, and there are probably some other elements of slight conservatism in there. So we’ll see how it goes. We feel that it’s appropriate and conservative at this point.

Matt O’Connor — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Okay. And then separately, you’ve got about $14 billion of losses in OCI. Obviously, most of that flows back to capital as the bonds mature. What’s kind of some good rule of thumb in terms of how quickly that comes back if rates stabilize here?

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

10 basis points a year.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Of CET1, yes.

Matt O’Connor — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Right, 10 basis points, you said?

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

10 basis points of CET1 a year. Yes, after tax.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Basically five years. It kind of bleeds back in over five years.

Jeremy Barnum — Chief Financial Officer

Again, assume its weighted average life of four or five years, yes. So the rule — the good rule of thumb on constant rates is about 10 basis points of CET1 accretion a year.

Matt O’Connor — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Thank you.

Operator

At the moment, there are no further questions in the queue.

Jamie Dimon — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Folks, everybody, thank you very much. And we’ll be talking to you in quarter.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

J P Morgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

American Outdoor Brands Corp. (AOUT) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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American Outdoor Brands Corp. (NASDAQ: AOUT) Q4 2022 earnings call dated Jul. 14, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Liz Sharp — Vice President, Investor Relations

Brian D. Murphy — President and Chief Executive Officer

Andrew Fulmer — Chief Financial Officer

Analysts:

Mark Smith — Lake Street Capital Partners — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Welcome to the Fourth Quarter and Full Fiscal Year 2022 American Outdoor Brands Earnings Conference Call. My name is Vanessa and I will be your operator for today’s call. At this time, all participants are in a listen-only mode. Later, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions]

I will now turn the call over to Liz Sharp, Vice President of Investor Relations.American Outdoor Brands Corp. (AOUT) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Cintas Corporation (CTAS) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Cintas Corporation (NASDAQ: CTAS) Q4 2022 earnings call dated Jul. 14, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Paul Adler — Vice President and Treasurer, Investor Relations

Todd Schneider — President and Chief Executive Officer

Mike Hansen — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analysts:

Faiza Alwy — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Hamzah Mazari — Jefferies — Analyst

George Tong — Goldman Sachs — Analyst

Ashish Sabadra — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst

Andy Wittmann — Baird — Analyst

Manav Patnaik — Barclays — Analyst

Andrew Steinerman — J.P. Morgan — Analyst

Seth Weber — Wells Fargo — Analyst

Heather Balsky — Bank of America — Analyst

Toni Kaplan — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Shlomo Rosenbaum — Stifel — Analyst

Scott Schneeberger — Oppenheimer — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Good day, everyone. And welcome to the Cintas Fourth Quarter, Full Year 2022 Earnings Release Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Paul Adler, Vice President and Treasurer, Investor Relations. Please go ahead, sir.Cintas Corporation (CTAS) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

First Republic Bank (FRC) Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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First Republic Bank (NYSE: FRC) Q2 2022 earnings call dated Jul. 14, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Michael Ioanilli — Vice President and Director, Investor Relations

James H. Herbert — Founder and Executive Chairman

Michael J. Roffler — Chief Executive Officer and President

Michael D. Selfridge — Senior Executive Vice President and Chief Banking Officer

Robert L. Thornton — Executive Vice President and President, First Republic Private Wealth Management

Olga Tsokova — Executive Vice President, Acting Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer

Analysts:

Steven Alexopoulos — J.P. Morgan — Analyst

David Rochester — Compass Point — Analyst

John Pancari — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Casey Haire — Jefferies — Analyst

Erika Najarian — UBS — Analyst

Bill Carcache — Wolfe Research — Analyst

Manan Gosalia — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Andrew Liesch — Piper Sandler — Analyst

Jared Shaw — Wells Fargo Securities — Analyst

Christopher McGratty — Keefe, Bruyette & Woods — Analyst

Brian Foran — Autonomous Research — Analyst

Ebrahim Poonawala — Bank of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst

Jon Arfstrom — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst

Timothy Coffey — Janney Montgomery Scott — Analyst

David Chiaverini — Wedbush Securities — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Greetings, and welcome to First Republic Bank’s Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Today’s conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to turn the call over to Mike Ioanilli, Vice President and Director of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.First Republic Bank (FRC) Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) Q2 2022 earnings call dated Jul. 14, 2022

Corporate Participants:

James Gorman — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Sharon Yeshaya — Chief Financial Officer

Analysts:

Christian Bolu — Autonomous Research — Analyst

Glenn Schorr — Evercore — Analyst

Steven Chubak — Wolfe Research — Analyst

Dan Fannon — Jefferies — Analyst

Ebrahim Poonawala — Bank of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst

Brennan Hawken — UBS — Analyst

Mike Mayo — Wells Fargo Securities — Analyst

Gerard Cassidy — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst

Matt O’Connor — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

James Mitchell — Seaport Global — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Good morning. Welcome to Morgan Stanley’s Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Call. On behalf of Morgan Stanley, I will begin the call with the following information and disclaimers.

This call is being recorded. During today’s presentation, we will refer to our earnings release and financial supplement, copies of which are available at morganstanley.com. Today’s presentation may include forward-looking statements that are subject to risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially. Please refer to our notices regarding forward-looking statements and non-GAAP measures that appear in the earnings release. This presentation may not be duplicated or reproduced without our consent.

I will now turn the call over to Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, James Gorman.Morgan Stanley (MS) Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Conagra Brands, Inc. (NYSE: CAG) Q4 2022 earnings call dated Jul. 14, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Melissa Napier — Senior Vice President of Investor Relations

Sean Connolly — President and Chief Executive Officer

David Marberger — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analysts:

Andrew Lazar — Barclays Capital — Analyst

Ken Goldman — JPMorgan — Analyst

David Palmer — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Alexia Howard — Bernstein — Analyst

Chris Growe — Stifel — Analyst

Robert Moskow — Credit Suisse — Analyst

Bryan Spillane — Bank of America Securities — Analyst

Jason English — Goldman Sachs — Analyst

Simon Negin — UBS — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to the Conagra Brands Fourth Quarter and Fiscal 2022 Results Conference Call. [Operator instructions] After today’s presentation there will be an opportunity to ask questions. [Operator instructions]

I would now like to turn the conference over to Melissa Napier, Head of Investor Relations for ConAgra Brands. Please go ahead.Conagra Brands, Inc. (CAG) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (NYSE: TSM) Q2 2022 earnings call dated Jul. 14, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Jeff Su — Director, Investor Relations

Wendell Huang — Vice President, Finance and Chief Financial Officer

C.C. Wei — Chief Executive Officer

Mark Liu — Chairman

Analysts:

Randy Abrams — Credit Suisse — Analyst

Bruce Lu — Goldman Sachs — Analyst

Sunny Lin — UBS — Analyst

Gokul Hariharan — J.P. Morgan — Analyst

Brett Simpson — Arete Research — Analyst

Charlie Chan — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Laura Chen — Citigroup — Analyst

Charles Shi — Needham & Company — Analyst

Mehdi Hosseini — Susquehanna International Group — Analyst

Brad Lin — Bank of America — Analyst

Krish Sankar — Cowen and Company — Analyst

Frank Lee — HSBC — Analyst

Robert Sanders — Deutsche Bank — Analyst

Presentation:

Jeff Su — Director, Investor Relations

[Foreign Speech] Good afternoon, everyone, and welcome to TSMC’s Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. This is Jeff Su, TSMC’s, Director of Investor Relations and your host for today.

To prevent the spread of COVID-19, TSMC is hosting our earnings conference call via live audio webcast through the Company’s website at www.tsmc.com, where you can also download the earnings release materials. [Operator Instructions]

The format for today’s event will be as follows: first, TSMC’s Vice President and CFO, Mr. Wendell Huang, will summarize our operations in the second quarter 2022, followed by our guidance for the third quarter 2022. Afterwards, Mr. Huang and TSMC’s CEO, Dr. C.C. Wei, will jointly provide the Company’s key messages. Then TSMC’s Chairman, Dr. Mark Liu, will host the Q&A session, where all three executives will entertain your questions.Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company Limited (TSM) Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Fastenal Company (FAST) Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Fastenal Company (NASDAQ: FAST) Q2 2022 earnings call dated Jul. 13, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Taylor Ranta Oborski — Financial Reporting and Regulatory Compliance Accountant

Daniel L. Florness — President and Chief Executive Officer

Holden Lewis — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analysts:

Joshua Pokrzywinski — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

David Manthey — Robert W. Baird — Analyst

Nigel Coe — Wolfe Research — Analyst

Ryan Merkel — William Blair — Analyst

Hamzah Mazari — Jefferies — Analyst

Tommy Moll — Stephens Inc. — Analyst

Chris Snyder — UBS — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Hello and welcome to the Fastenal Second Quarter 2022 Earnings Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It’s now my pleasure to turn the call over to Taylor Ranta of Fastenal Company. Please go ahead, Taylor.

Taylor Ranta Oborski — Financial Reporting and Regulatory Compliance Accountant

Welcome to the Fastenal Company 2022 second quarter earnings conference call. The call will be hosted by Dan Florness, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Holden Lewis, our Chief Financial Officer. This call will last for up to 1 hour and we’ll start with a general overview of our quarterly results and operations with the remainder of the time being open for questions and answers.Fastenal Company (FAST) Q2 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Pure Cycle Corporation (NASDAQ: PCYO) Q3 2022 earnings call dated Jul. 12, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Mark W. Harding — President and Chief Executive Officer

Dirk Lashnits — Vice President, Land Development

Kevin B. McNeill — Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analysts:

William Miller — Private Investor — Analyst

Elliot Knight — Knight Advisors — Analyst

Greg Malachowski — Benchmark — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the Pure Cycle Corporation Third Quarter Nine Months Ending May 31, 2022 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

It is now my pleasure to turn the floor over to your host, Mr. Mark Harding, President and CEO of Pure Cycle. Sir, the floor is yours.

Pure Cycle Corporation (PCYO) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Angiodynamics Inc (ANGO) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Angiodynamics Inc (NASDAQ: ANGO) Q4 2022 earnings call dated Jul. 12, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Jim Clemmer — President and Chief Executive Officer

Stephen A. Trowbridge — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analysts:

Jayson Bedford — Raymond James & Associates, Inc. — Analyst

William Plovanic — Canaccord Genuity Group, Inc. — Analyst

Matthew Mishan — KeyBanc Capital Markets, Inc. — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Good morning, and welcome to Angiodynamics’s Fourth Quarter and Fiscal Year 2022 Earnings Call. [Operator Instructions]

The news release detailing our fourth quarter and fiscal year 2022 results crossed the wire earlier this morning and is available on the company’s website. This conference call is also being broadcast live over the Internet at the Investors section of the company’s website at www.angiodynamics.com, and the webcast replay of the call will be available at the same site approximately one hour after the end of today’s call.

Angiodynamics Inc (ANGO) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

PriceSmart, Inc. (PSMT) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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PriceSmart, Inc. (NASDAQ: PSMT) Q3 2022 earnings call dated Jul. 12, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Michael L. McCleary — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Sherry S. Bahrambeygui — Chief Executive Officer

Analysts:

Rodrigo Echagaray — Scotiabank — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Good afternoon everyone and welcome to PriceSmart Incorporated Earnings Release Conference Call for the Third Quarter of Fiscal Year 2022, which ended on May 31 of 2022. After remarks from our Company’s representatives, Ms. Sherry Bahrambeygui, Chief Executive Officer; and Michael McCleary, Chief Financial Officer, you will be given an opportunity to ask questions if time permits.

As a reminder, this conference call is limited to one hour and is being recorded today, Tuesday, July 12 of 2022. A digital replay will be available following the conclusion of today’s conference call through July 19 of 2022 by dialing 1877-344-7529 for domestic callers or 1412-317-0088 for international callers, and by entering the replay access code 6291871.

For opening remarks, I would like to turn the conference over to PriceSmart’s Chief Financial Officer, Mr. Michael McCleary. Please proceed, sir.PriceSmart, Inc. (PSMT) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

VOXX International Corporation (VOXX) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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VOXX International Corporation (NASDAQ: VOXX) Q1 2023 earnings call dated Jul. 12, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Glenn Wiener — Investor Relations

Pat Lavelle — President and Chief Executive Officer

Michael Stoehr — Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Analysts:

Brian Ruttenbur — Imperial Capital — Analyst

Victoria James — D.A. Davidson — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Good day and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the VOXX International Fiscal 2023 First Quarter Results Conference Call. I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Glenn Wiener with Investor Relations.VOXX International Corporation (VOXX) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

The Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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The Greenbrier Companies Inc (NYSE: GBX) Q3 2022 earnings call dated Jul. 11, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Justin Roberts — Vice President, Corporate Finance and Treasurer

William A. Furman — Executive Chair

Lorie L. Tekorius — President and Chief Executive Officer

Brian J. Comstock — Executive Vice President, Chief Commercial and Leasing Officer

Adrian J. Downes — Senior Vice President, Chief Financial Officer and Chief Accounting Officer

Analysts:

Justin Long — Stephens — Analyst

Matt Elkott — Cowen — Analyst

Allison Poliniak — Wells Fargo — Analyst

Bascome Majors — Susquehanna — Analyst

Ken Hoexter — Bank of America — Analyst

Steve Barger — KeyBanc Capital Markets — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Hello and welcome to the Greenbrier Companies Third Quarter of Fiscal 2022 Earnings Conference Call. Following today’s presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] At the request of Greenbrier Companies, this conference call is being recorded for instant replay purposes.

At this time, I would like to turn the conference over to Mr. Justin Roberts, Vice President of Corporate Finance. Mr. Roberts, you may begin.The Greenbrier Companies Inc (GBX) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

AZZ Inc (AZZ) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

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AZZ Inc (NYSE: AZZ) Q1 2023 earnings call dated Jul. 11, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Joe Dorame — Investor Relations

Tom Ferguson — Chief Executive Officer

Philip Schlom — Chief Financial Officer

David Nark — Senior Vice President, Marketing, Communications & IR

Analysts:

John Franzreb — Sidoti and Company — Analyst

Noelle Dilts — Stifel — Analyst

John Braatz — Kansas City Capital — Analyst

Josh Taykowski — Credit Suisse — Analyst

Brett Kearney — Gabelli Funds — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Good morning and welcome to the AZZ, Inc First Quarter Fiscal Year 2023 Financial Results Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Joe Dorame with Lytham Partners. Please go ahead.

AZZ Inc (AZZ) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Micron Technology Inc (MU) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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Micron Technology Inc (NASDAQ: MU) Q3 2022 earnings call dated Jun. 30, 2022

Corporate Participants:

Farhan Ahmad — Vice President, Investor Relations

Sanjay Mehrotra — President and Chief Executive Officer

Mark Murphy — Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer

Sumit Sadana — Executive Vice President and Chief Business Officer

Analysts:

Harlan Sur — JPMorgan — Analyst

C.J. Muse — Evercore — Analyst

Krish Sankar — Cowen and Company — Analyst

Timothy Arcuri — UBS — Analyst

Vivek Arya — Bank of America — Analyst

Ambrish Srivastava — BMO — Analyst

Aaron Rakers — Wells Fargo — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Thanks you, for standing by, and welcome to Micron Technology’s Fiscal Third Quarter 2022 Financial Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today’s conference may be recorded. [Operator Instructions].

I would now like to hand the call over to Farhan Ahmad, Vice President, Investor Relations.

Micron Technology Inc (MU) Q3 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

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