Earnings Preview: Can McDonald’s (MCD) extend recent gains into Q3?

McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) began the year on a soft footing, but regained momentum in the second quarter with notable gains in sales and profitability. As the fast-food giant prepares to report Q3 earnings, investors will be watching closely for signs that the recovery trend is holding.

Estimates

Third-quarter report is slated for release on Wednesday, November 5, at 7:00 am ET. Market watchers’ consensus earnings estimate for the September quarter is $3.33 per share, on revenues of $7.09 billion. In the corresponding quarter of FY24, the company generated revenues of $6.87 billion and earned $3.23 per share, on an adjusted basis.

McDonald’s stock experienced high volatility in 2025, driven by investor caution amid soft consumer spending and economic uncertainty. In March, MCD climbed to an all-time high after recovering from the softness seen in the early weeks of the year. The last closing price is down 3.7% from the stock’s value six months ago.

Strong Q2

In the second quarter, adjusted earnings rose to $3.19 per share from $2.97 per share in Q2 2024. Net income was $2.25 billion or $3.14 per share in the June quarter, compared to $2.02 billion or $2.80 per share last year. Driving the income growth, revenues increased 5% year-over-year to $6.84 billion during the three months. Global comparable sales were up 3.8%, with domestic and international sales growing 2.5% and 4%, respectively. Both revenue and earnings surpassed estimates after missing in the trailing two quarters.

From McDonald’s Q2 2025 Earnings Call:

“Certainly, overall QSR traffic in the US remained challenging as visits across the industry by low-income consumers once again declined by double-digits versus the prior year period. Reengaging the low-income consumer is critical as they typically visit our restaurants more frequently than middle and high-income consumers. This bifurcated consumer base is why we remain cautious about the overall near-term health of the US consumer. In this environment, we will continue to remain agile with respect to our value offerings to ensure the US strengthens its leadership in value and affordability.”

Focus on Value

The company’s marketing strategy is currently focused on adding more value meals and innovating the menu, considering the recent decline in low and middle-income customers. However, its margins remain under pressure from elevated operating costs.

MCD had a soft start to the week, and it has maintained a downtrend so far. On Wednesday, the stock opened at $304.7 and traded lower throughout the session.