Revenue
Earnings per share
The consensus estimate for Q4 2025 earnings per share is $0.09. This implies a decrease of 86% from the prior-year quarter. In Q3 2025, adjusted EPS fell 33% YoY to $0.65.
Points to note
Estee Lauder has been facing a challenging environment with weakness in its global travel retail business and muted consumer sentiment in China. The company expects the headwind in its travel retail business to be bigger in the fourth quarter.
In Q3, EL’s travel retail business saw a 28% organic decline. The company anticipates a stronger double-digit sales decline in its global travel retail business in Q4 compared to Q3. This outlook reflects impacts from retailers shifting towards more profitable duty-free business models in Korea and mainland China, as well as weak consumer sentiment in China.
Outside travel retail, EL expects to see a moderation in its organic sales decline and an improvement in retail sales. The company has been seeing retail softness for some brands as well as a drop in consumer confidence in North America.
EL is expected to see benefits from its Profit Recovery and Growth Plan (PRGP), which has been helping in expanding gross margins and reducing operating costs.