Evolution Mining Ltd (EVN.AX) shares rose modestly in early trade on Wednesday, climbing toward the upper end of their 52-week range, after the company reported strong December quarter results and reiterated full-year guidance. EVN shares last traded near A$13.50, up around 2% intraday, holding close to the 52-week high of about A$13.54 and well above the prior year low near A$5.49.
Analysts noted the December quarter performance was underpinned by robust cash flow and production metrics. “This result reflects continued operational delivery and disciplined capital allocation,” said a Sydney-based commodities strategist. Market capitalisation stands around A$27.5 billion.
Company profile
Evolution Mining Ltd is a gold and copper producer listed on the Australian Securities Exchange (ASX: EVN). Headquartered in Sydney, the company operates a portfolio of assets in Australia and Canada, including Cowal and Northparkes in New South Wales, Ernest Henry in Queensland, Mungari in Western Australia, and Red Lake in Ontario. Evolution also holds an 80% interest in Northparkes and focuses on exploration, mine development and metals sales.
Latest quarterly results and highlights
In the December quarter (Q2 FY2026), Evolution reported production of approximately 191,000 ounces of gold and 18,000 tonnes of copper. Operating cash flow surged 57% to more than A$1 billion, while net mine cash flow roughly doubled to A$727 million compared with the prior quarter. All-in sustaining costs (AISC) were A$1,275 per ounce, reflecting improved cost efficiency. Gearing (net debt to capital) declined to about 6% from 11%.
The company confirmed it remains on track to meet full-year FY26 production guidance of 710,000–780,000 ounces of gold and 70,000–80,000 tonnes of copper, and maintained its group AISC guidance range.
Market reaction, trend, 52-week context
EVN’s share price has more than doubled over the past year, driven by sustained cash flow growth, strong commodity prices and production gains. The current level is near the top of its 52-week range (A$5.49–A$13.54), underscoring significant upside from last year’s lows.
Trading volume remained elevated, with price action reflecting both gold price strength and investor positioning ahead of the quarterly report. The stock has shown a solid uptrend over the past six months, with intermittent consolidation around key resistance levels.
Full-year context and growth
For the fiscal year ended 30 June 2025 (FY25), Evolution posted record full-year results. Statutory net profit reached A$926 million, up about 119% year-on-year, and underlying net profit climbed nearly 99%. Revenue grew over 35% to A$4.35 billion, while underlying EBITDA rose around 46%. Gearing fell as part of a broader balance sheet strengthening effort. Dividends were also raised, with a total payout of 20 Australian cents per share—the highest in company history.
Operations delivered double-digit growth in copper production and modest gains in gold output compared with the prior year. Evolution also received regulatory approval for a key Cowal open pit continuation project, expected to extend mine life and support long-term cash flow.
Outlook
Evolution reaffirmed its FY26 production guidance and cost expectations. The company’s board indicated capital allocation would remain focused on prioritising low-cost production and deleveraging while progressing strategic growth opportunities such as asset expansions.
Commodities analysts point to ongoing momentum in base and precious metals prices as a supporting factor for Evolution’s earnings outlook. Broker Bell Potter recently lifted its price target and retained a “buy” rating, citing strong fundamentals and shareholder return prospects.
Risks for the miner include weather-related disruptions at key sites, volatility in metal prices and execution risk around expansion projects, which could influence operational performance and investor sentiment.
Recent Analyst Commentary, Broker Ratings & Price Targets
Some brokers maintain underweight/underperform ratings on EVN, reflecting concerns about valuation and resource outlook. UBS cut its rating to sell and lowered its price target to about A$6.70, citing valuation concerns despite acknowledging operational strength and copper exposure.
Jefferies has also maintained an Underperform recommendation, reflecting cautious views on the stock relative to fundamentals.
In contrast, JPMorgan increased its price target and held an overweight view, lifting its target to around A$10.50, based on revised gold price assumptions and earnings forecasts.
Bell Potter raised its price target for EVN to approximately A$12.35 while keeping a buy rating, linked to higher commodity price forecasts and expected shareholder returns.