First Industrial Realty Trust Inc Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

First Industrial Realty Trust Inc (NYSE: FR) Q4 2025 Earnings Call dated Feb. 05, 2026

Presentation

Operator

Good day and welcome to the First Industrial Realty Trust Inc. Fourth Quarter 2025 Results Call. All participants will be in listen only mode. Should you need assistance, please signal a conference specialist by pressing the Star key followed by zero. After today’s presentation, there will be an opportunity to ask questions. To ask a question, you may press star, then one on a touchtone phone. To withdraw your question, please press Star and then two. Please note this event is being recorded. I would now like to turn the conference over to Art Harmon, Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Marketing.

Please go ahead.

Art Harmon — Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and Marketing

Thanks very much Dave. Hello everybody and welcome to our call. Before we discuss our fourth quarter and full year 2025 results and our initial guidance for 2026, please note that our call may include forward looking statements as defined by federal securities laws. These statements are based on management’s expectations, plans and estimates of our prospects. Today’s statements may be time sensitive and accurate only as of today’s date, February 5, 2026. We assume no obligation to update our statements or the other information we provide. Actual results may differ materially from our forward looking statements and factors which could cause this are Described in our 10K and other SEC filings.

You can find a reconciliation of non GAAP financial measures discussed in today’s call in our supplemental report and our earnings release. The supplemental report, earnings release and our SEC filings are available@firstindustrial.com under the Investors tab. Our call will begin with remarks by Peter Bacilli, our President and Chief Executive Officer, and Scott Musil, our Chief Financial Officer, after which we’ll open it up for your questions. Also with us today are JoJo Yap, Chief Investment Officer, Peter Schultz, Executive Vice President, Chris Schneider, Executive Vice President of Operations, and Bob Walter, Executive Vice President of Capital Markets and Asset Management.

Now let me turn the call over to Peter.

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you Art and thank you all for joining us today. I’m proud of how our team performed in 2025. For the third straight year, we competed well in a volatile and evolving economy and a challenging environment for tenants investing in new growth. The only thing that is certain in this operating environment is uncertainty. We’re well prepared for more of the same. We’re also well positioned with a resilient portfolio and significant growth opportunity ahead. From an operational standpoint, our team remained focused and and generated strong cash, rental rate cash, same store, NOI and FFO growth and continued to sign new development leases.

We also executed two recent term loan refinancings which Scott will address in his remarks. The overall leasing market showed significant activity in the fourth quarter with a record 226 million square feet of leasing, according to CBRE, which was 22% higher than a year ago. Total leasing was 941 million square feet for the year, making it the second highest year on record, second only to 2021 and more than 12% higher than 2024. 3 PLs continue to be very active representing 36% of total leasing with retail and manufacturing occupiers rounding out the top three. According to CBRE.

Vacancy in the fourth quarter was 6.7% reflecting net absorption of 58 million square feet with completions at 78 million. For the year, net absorption was 149 million square feet and completions were 282 million. Construction starts nationally in the fourth quarter were 45 million square feet in line with the third quarter and still well below 2022’s peak level. Pre leasing on the under construction pipeline continues to be approximately 40%. Within our own portfolio and development projects, touring activity continues to improve. Since our last call, we signed 231,000 square feet of leases in two of our developments.

These leasing wins include the other half of our 425,000 square foot Houston development and 19,000 square feet at our first loop project in Orlando. For 2025, our cash rental rate increase on new and renewal leasing was 32% if you exclude the large fixed rate renewal and central PA we previously discussed. The cash rental rate increase was 37% and the straight line increase was 59%. Our annual escalators for 2025 commencements excluding fixed rate renewal. The fixed rate renewal were 3.7% which has remained steady since 2023 when we started to implement higher escalators in our leases. For the whole portfolio for 2026 they are 3.4%.

Regarding our 2026 rollovers, we’re off to an excellent start having taken care of 45% by square footage and our overall cash rental rate increase for new and renewal leasing is 35% for the full year. We expect cash rental rate growth to range from 30 to 40%. Moving now to investments during the quarter, we acquired the 968,000 square foot 100% leased building from our Camelback 303 Phoenix joint venture for 125 million. The purchase price is net of 18 million, which is our share of the venture’s gain on sale for moat and fees. The venture also sold the last remaining 71 acres it owned to a data center operator.

With these transactions, we successfully concluded the joint venture which achieved an overall IRR of 90%. We thank Diamond Realty for being an outstanding partner on this and the prior PV303 venture through which we created significant value for them and our shareholders and ultimately were able to add some high quality properties to our portfolio. We also acquired a newly constructed 117,000 square foot facility in the Baltimore market in the infill eastern suburbs of Washington D.C. near Andrews Air Force Base for 31 million. The property was 2/3 leased acquisition. The combined stabilized cash yield on the net purchase price of The Phoenix building plus the DC facility is 6.3%.

On the development front, we’re breaking ground on two new buildings in the first quarter at First Park, Miami and Medley. We’re starting a 220,000 square foot project as we continue to methodically build out that park. As a reminder, we’ve developed 1.4 million square feet across eight buildings in this inso location and we own additional land that will support another 859,000 square feet of projects. In Dallas, we’re starting the 84,000 square foot first Arlington Commerce Center 3. This is the third project in our park in this highly sought after submarket. Total investment for these two buildings is 70 million with a combined projected cash yield of approximately 7%.

Lastly, given our performance and outlook, our Board of Directors declared a first quarter dividend of $0.50 per share. This is an increase of 12.4% which is aligned with our anticipated cash flow growth. With that, I’ll hand it over to Scott.

Scott Musil — Chief Financial Officer

Thanks Peter. Let me start by recapping our results for the quarter. AREIT funds from operations for the fourth quarter were $0.77 per fully diluted share compared to $0.71 per share in 4Q 2024. For the full year 2025, FFO per fully diluted share was 296 versus $2.65 in 2024, representing a 12% increase. Our cash same store NOI growth for the full year 2025 excluding termination fees was 7.1%, primarily driven by increases in rental rates and new and renewal leasing and contractual rent bumps partially offset by lower average occupancy.

Please note that 2024 same store NOI excludes $4.5 million of income related to the accelerated recognition of a tenant improvement reimbursement associated with the tenant in central Pennsylvania. For the fourth quarter, cash same store NOI growth was 3.7%. We finished the quarter with in service occupancy of 94.4%, up 40 basis points from the third quarter. Summarizing our balance sheet leasing activity during the quarter, approximately 1.8 million square feet of leases commenced. Of these, approximately 600,000 were new, 600,000 were renewals and 500,000 were for developments and acquisitions with lease up. On the capital front, we recently renewed two term loans.

First is our $425 million unsecured term loan with an initial maturity date of January 2030 with the one year extension option. In addition, we renewed our $300 million unsecured term loan and increased its size by $75 million for a total of $375 million. The initial maturity date is January 2029 with two one year extension options. Pricing for both new term loans removes the incremental 10 basis point SOFR adjustment. Lastly, in conjunction with these refinancings, we also amended our $200 million unsecured term loan to eliminate the 10 basis point SOFR adjustment. We thank our banking partners for their continued support and commitments.

Before I review our overall guidance, let me quickly update you on our bad debt expense and our credit watch list. Bad debt expense for the year was $700,000 coming in better than our original guidance of $1 million. Note that our forecast for full year 2026 is $1 million. Regarding our watch list, Debenhams Group, formerly Boohoo, remains current. We also continue to work through the collection process for the 3PL tenant we added last quarter and we’ve been collecting the subtenant rent since October 2025. Now moving on to our initial guidance for 2026. Our NAREIT FFO midpoint is $3.14 per share with a range of $3.09 to $3.19 per share.

Key assumptions are as follows. Average quarter end in service occupancy for the year 94% to 95%. At the midpoint, the major lease up assumptions include 1.7 million square feet of developments and the 708,000 square footer in Central Pennsylvania, all to occur in the second half of the year 2026. Full year average Tanish cash same store NOI growth 5% to 6% Guidance includes the anticipated 2026 costs related to our completed and under construction developments and today’s announced starts for the full year 2026. We expect to capitalize about $0.08 per share of interest and our G and A expense guidance range is 42 to 43 million dollars.

Please note that the cadence of our G and A expense will be similar to 2025 with our 1Q expense to represent approximately 40% of full year G And a this is due to accelerated expense related to accounting rules that require us to fully expense the value of granted equity based compensation for certain tenured employees. Now let me turn it back over to Peter.

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks again to my teammates for their contributions to a successful 2025. As we’ve often said, we manage your company to thrive through business cycles. This past year was a strong reminder of why we subscribe to that strategy in 2026.

And always our team is focused on capitalizing on the opportunities we have both within our portfolio and in our new developments to drive cash flow growth and further enhance shareholder value. Operator we’re ready to open it up for questions.

Question & Answers

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press star then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press star and then two.

Also please limit yourself to one question and one follow up re queue to ask additional questions. The first question comes from Craig Mailman, Twist City. Please go ahead.

Craig Mailman

Hey, good morning guys. Maybe on the development leasing, that was helpful to give an update there. And I understand it’s second half. Just as I think through that 1.7 million square feet, how much of that is in projects that have already delivered and are a drag on the operating portfolio versus projects that are either under construction or lease up that may not hit until, you know, later in the year. So the contribution is more for 2027.

Scott Musil — Chief Financial Officer

Hey Craig, it’s Scott. I think the way that we look at it is that we have a 2.5 million square foot development opportunity. These are properties that have been completed or will be completed in 2026. So that 1.7 million square feet that we have in our guidance could come out of any of that 2.5 million square feet.

Craig Mailman

Okay, and then just a follow up. Can you just give us a sense of where you guys stand on Denver? I know you’re kind of dual tracking it for sale and lease still kind of. What’s the update there?

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning Craig, it’s Peter. Correct. The building is available for either lease or sale. We have a couple of active prospects that we’re talking to for all of the building on a lease basis as well as a couple of inquiries on portions of the asset and we’ll keep you posted on our progress.

Craig Mailman

Maybe a quick follow up. How is that treated in same store? Because I know it’s got, you know, four bucks a foot of property taxes on it. Like does that high probability in the 1.7 million square foot lease up or is that more vacant? And how much of an uptick could that be to earnings in same store if you guys were to sell that?

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, like you said, Craig, if we were to sell it, then we don’t have the taxes, as you said, was about $2.4 million for the year if that was something that we leased up.

And again, if it did lease up, we’re making the assumption back into the year it’s going to be free rent related. So it’s not going to have an impact on cash, same store. Obviously, the taxes would. I think all of that kind of comes into our 5 to 6%, same cash, same store range.

Craig Mailman

Great, thank you.

Operator

And the next question comes from Michael Carroll with RBC Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Michael Carroll — Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Yep, thanks. I wanted to circle back on the development in the PA that’s included in guidance. I mean, Scott, have you done an analysis? How much FFO does that increase your 2026 guidance or how much is that contributing to your 2026 guidance range?

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

Are you talking about just the 708 or the 1.7 million square feet, Mike?

Michael Carroll — Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

I guess both.

Assuming that those spaces get leased in the back half of the year. I mean, is it in the July time frame or the December timeframe? I guess if we just kind of neutralize those space to, I guess, larger buckets of space. I mean, how much FFO contribution is assumed in your guidance range from those specific assets?

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

Right. So I would say it like this. If we did not lease up any of the 1.7 million square feet or the 708,000 square footer, we would still be within our FFO guidance range.

Michael Carroll — Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Okay. And then just related to some of the developments, I mean, can you talk about the South Florida campuses? I know this market has been pretty solid and some of the reasons why you’re breaking ground on a new project.

I know there’s space left in building 12 and building 3. I know there’s some space left in first pompano 2. Are you just seeing really good activity and that’s why you wanted to break ground on this project in Miami again?

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

Sure, Mike. So it’s Peter. Yes. Is the answer to your question at building 12, we only have 32,000ft. At building 3, we have some active prospect discussions going on for portions of that building. As you know, when we start a new project in Florida, it takes us about a year to deliver. So that building won’t deliver until first quarter.

Of 27, and we feel pretty good about the activity. The smaller building in Pompano, we have active prospects for that different sub market. So it’s not the same calculus, but overall activity is pretty steady.

Michael Carroll — Analyst, RBC Capital Markets

Great, I appreciate it.

Operator

And the next question comes from Blaine Heck with Wells Fargo. Please, go ahead.

Blaine Heck — Analyst, Wells Fargo

Great, thanks. Good morning. Can you talk a little bit more about the balance between preserving occupancy and pushing on rental rates? Are there any more markets in which you’re kind of leaning more towards pushing on rate versus preserving occupancy? And maybe on the flip side, any specific markets or size segments that you still see as more vulnerable on the rate side?

Scott Musil — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I would say on that. Look, we’re always trying to maximize the NPV of those leases that varies by market. We remain competitive to meet the market, and I’m not sure how else to answer that. We are really looking to maximize the value of each asset and each lease. And of course that has different inputs, whether it’s free rent or TI’s or base rate, et cetera.

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

Blaine, it’s Peter. The other thing I’d add to that is we’re going to meet the market and as Peter said, optimizing all of those economics. The assets that we have available are high quality and there is certainly a flight to quality in this market.

Lowering the rent is not going to necessarily create incremental demand. There are certainly assets in the market that are second or third gen that do not have the functionality and they’re struggling. So that will be a rent challenge for them. But in general, rents are pretty stable and holdings certainly concessions and TI’s up a little bit. But we don’t view lowering the rent on a wholesale basis as the solution. There’s also been some movement from class B to class A, which plays into our portfolio very, very well, given that we’ve built most of it now in the last 15 plus or minus years.

So we’re in a good position with the competitive standing of our assets.

Blaine Heck — Analyst, Wells Fargo

Great, thanks. That’s helpful. Color. Second question. Amazon remains your largest tenant, about 6% of revenue, and their demand is sometimes seen as kind of a barometer for the market as a whole. So can you just talk about any recent discussion, discussions you’ve had with them or indications around their appetite for additional space? In 26,

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

it’s Peter again. We’re seeing them active in a number of markets for additional space, including a number of large format buildings in Pennsylvania as an example. They continue to be active and looking to add to their portfolio.

Scott Musil — Chief Financial Officer

Also, I’d like to add that Amazon has been particularly active. Q4 and 2025 numbers that we’ve researched total about 10 million feet just at Amazon. And so they’ve come back and leased a lot of space.

Blaine Heck — Analyst, Wells Fargo

Great, thank you guys.

Operator

And the next question comes from Nicholas Yoliko with Scotiabank. Please go ahead.

Greg McGinniss

Hey, this is Greg McGinnis with Nick. I just want to make sure we understand on the FFO per share guidance, is the difference between the bottom and top end of the RA primarily related to development pipeline lease up or are there other key factors we should be considering as well?

Scott Musil — Chief Financial Officer

That’s one piece. The 1.7 million square feet of development lease up in the 708,000 square footer. The other piece of guidance we give you is bad debt expense. We put in a million bucks for guidance. It came in at $700,000 last year. But you know, you never know. There could be some volatility in that as well.

Greg McGinniss

Okay, thanks. And with the 2026 lease expirations, looks like you’re down to 4.5 million square feet remaining. Are there any like key tenants in there or larger, kind of larger spaces that you’re focusing on?

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

We are working with a renewal in SoCal, about 555,000 square feet. And we are in discussions with the tenant.

Greg McGinniss

Great, thank you.

Operator

And the next question comes from Nick Thaleman with Baird. Please go ahead.

Nicholas Thillman

Hey, good morning. Good success on the Camelback jv. I know you guys also had been evaluating potential higher uses for Dister Land bank and existing assets when it comes to data center opportunity set. So just curious if you had any updates there.

Scott Musil — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, we’re still working on that. We’re pursuing a pretty narrowly defined set of potential opportunities. It’s going to take a while to play out. You have to do a lot of different studies, have a lot of discussions that take a long time.

So we’re still evaluating that for both land holdings and existing buildings and we’ll keep you posted on any progress

Nicholas Thillman

that’s helpful. Then for a follow up. Peter, you’re pretty bullish. It seems a little bit on just the macro turning here. As you look at your land bank, do you view that you have the capacity to develop in the right markets as you see it today? And as we think about new starts for 26, is it more a function of you would like just understanding that you do have that leasing cap? Is it more a function of getting some leasing done before you start new projects? Or is it more going to be how you’re seeing the demand environment change throughout the year.

Nicholas Thillman

Yeah. The cap is not really factor into these decisions. It’s really the economics of each project and the condition of the markets. As we’ve mentioned in the past, places like Texas and Florida and Pacific, pretty good. Nashville’s great. We’re looking to add to our land holdings in Nashville in particular as well as South Florida. We do have potential opportunities for starts in some of those markets today. And of course, over time, getting into the 27, 28, 29 timeframe, we think that some of the other markets, in particular SoCal will begin to to be a place where you might start thinking again about it.

So we’re pretty well positioned with our holdings. We certainly do want to add to those holdings, I’ll say, in the eastern half of the country and that counts Texas.

Operator

And the next question comes from Todd Thomas with KeyBanc. Please go ahead.

Todd Thomas — Analyst, KeyBanc

Yeah, hi. Thanks. Good morning. First question, appreciate the detail around sort of the assumptions related to the development, leasing and the central PA asset. Understand it’s skewed toward the second half of the year, but can you provide just a little bit more detail around the pipeline today for prospects, how demand and tenant activity is trending? Just trying to get a sense for sort of how much visibility you have today.

Scott Musil — Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Jojo and Peter, you can comment on your

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

sure. Todd, it’s Peter. In general, we’re seeing continuation of the pickup activity from the balance the end of the 2025 year into the beginning of 2026. We have more inquiries, tours, RFPs. Engagement level from tenants is better still. Hard to predict when some of those deals if they’ll get done and when the leases will start. There’s still a lot of deliberateness among tenants, but we feel better today than we did last call in terms of the overall level of activity and tenant engagement. And as we’ve talked about, new supply is down, sublet space is pretty much stabilized.

So the environment is better. The part of that 1.7 million square feet, as Scott mentioned, includes two development projects in IE. I would say that, you know, IE in the IE we have a bit more prospects and a bit more RFPs. We’re certainly very happy to release our 159,000 square foot first hard enoughs in Q4 of last year in the IE. And one thing I want to point out on the supply side, under construction, deliveries and starts in IE are in a record low. I mean significantly declined Q3 to Q4. And the sublease availability is also slightly down.

So all in all, if you look at the fundamentals Surrounding those two development projects, it’s pointing out to the bottoming of market and with improving supply metrics and some increasing demand activity.

Todd Thomas — Analyst, KeyBanc

Okay, that’s helpful. How are concessions trending broadly? I realize it’s probably market by market and asset by asset, but how should we think about, you know, sort of cash rent commencements relative to, you know, sort of the date of a lease signing?

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, it’s. Peter, again, I would say concessions are flat to drifting up. And you’re exactly right. It’s market by market, asset by asset. You know, free rent is between half of one month and one month per year of term. And the TI is really driven by specific tenant requirements, but it’s up a little bit, you know, as tenants have choices.

Scott Musil — Chief Financial Officer

And I just want to add that in terms of renewals, which represents the major bulk of our activity, leasing activity, they’re tight, meaning that we’re not seeing significant increase on free rent versus purchase. And the TI’s are very low. So once they’ve committed to this space. And by the way, in terms of renewals, they’ve been renewing a bit earlier than 2024 or early 25.

Todd Thomas — Analyst, KeyBanc

Okay, that’s helpful. If I could just sneak in one more here. In terms of the capital plan for 26, just curious how you’re thinking about dispositions and additional land sales and whether anything’s contemplated for the year as sort of a. A source of capital, I guess, what the appetite is like in the market and sort of what’s contemplated around dispositions and monetizations.

Scott Musil — Chief Financial Officer

Sure. Look, I mean, I think the best way to describe it is we remain opportunistic. As I mentioned earlier, we are looking at everything we own to see if it can be converted to higher and better use. In terms of planned sales, that number is not a very large number, but again, we’re opportunistic and we’re open to maximizing value in each and every asset that we have.

Todd Thomas — Analyst, KeyBanc

Okay, great. Thank you.

Operator

And the next question comes from Kaitlyn Burroughs with Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead.

Caitlin Burrows — Analyst, Goldman Sachs

You mentioned the progress you’ve made on the 26th lease expirations. I guess if we take a look back on 2025, can you comment on what sort of retention rate you achieved and whether you expect a similar result in 26? And for those that are leaving any sense, why, yes, 2025, we’re at 71% overall retention rate.

We expect very similar in 2026. And as you see, we’ve already taken care of 45%, so we feel pretty good about that. At this point, does that 45% mean that the other 55 is still TBD or are some nos included in that too?

Scott Musil — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, still tdb. You know, most of the renewals were or the rollovers we’re talking to and discussions with. So they’re very close to getting done in many cases.

Caitlin Burrows — Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Got it. Okay. And then maybe just on new leasing, I know you mentioned how Amazon was quite active in the industry in 4Q, can you go through who in 4Q and I guess so far in 1Q has been active like types of tenants in your portfolio and do you think those are indicative of the industry or more FR specific And any comment on like why the activity today versus like a year ago?

Scott Musil — Chief Financial Officer

I’ll start this and Peter and Jojo can jump in. Generally three PLs have been very active. They’ve got the biggest market share, about 36%. Retail has been active, manufacturing has been active, food and Bev has been active. And I don’t think there’s any significant difference other than manufacturing. We don’t have a lot of that, but there’s not a huge difference between what’s going on in the broader market and our own lease up. Peter, do you have anything else?

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

The other groups I’d add, Caitlin, are you auto related energy, building materials and products? You know, it continues to be a pretty broad based group of prospects as we’ve talked about on prior calls.

And that I would say is in line with what we’re seeing in the market and across our portfolio.

Johannson Yap — Chief Investment Officer

That’s pretty extensive already. The only thing I want to put there are some. If you compare 25 to 24, there’s been a slight increase on data center related, either infrastructure or construction related uses.

Caitlin Burrows — Analyst, Goldman Sachs

Thanks

Operator

again. If you have a question, please press star and then one. Our next question comes from Vince Tabone with Green Street Advisors. Please go ahead.

Vince Tibone — Analyst, Green Street Advisors

Hi, good morning. You mentioned the flight to quality, which is a common theme we’ve heard from others. So I want to ask a basic question.

Just like what traits make a building an A building and kind of what factors have changed versus maybe the recent past and particularly could you just talk about minimum power load requirements from tenants and how that’s changed? I’ve heard that’s come up a lot more in new leasing conversations.

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

Good morning Vince, it’s Peter. So clear height, trailer parking, column spacing, car parking, building depths and geometry circulation. All of those are important, I would say to your comment about power. Pretty much every large user that we’re seeing today wants more power. We design and fit out Our new buildings with pretty much the maximum we can supply.

Some tenants are requiring more than that, which takes additional time and investment from them to achieve that. But I wouldn’t say there’s anything materially different today than the last several years and what we’ve been building and delivering.

Vince Tibone — Analyst, Green Street Advisors

Yeah, that’s helpful. Is there any rules of thumb you’re able to share around what would be in your mind a strong power load versus one that’s maybe a little subpar for a new tenant in a bulk building, Whether it’s like megawatts per square foot or just megawatts. Is there any kind of just helpful metrics you could share on what is, what would be adequate power for a new bulk building?

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, generally we’re putting in, depending upon size, between 3,000 and 5,000amps.

Vince Tibone — Analyst, Green Street Advisors

Okay. No, that’s helpful. So that would. Just to confirm that would be, you know, most tenants would find that, you know, attractive or, you know, they wouldn’t need more than that in most cases.

Johannson Yap — Chief Investment Officer

Most tenants overstate their needs and there’s ample power. So some certainly have additional needs. But for the vast majority, it’s fine.

Vince Tibone — Analyst, Green Street Advisors

No, that’s really helpful, thank you. And then just one more quick one on kind of guide and near term expectations. Just wanted to see if there’s any large known move outs in 26 we should be aware of or you wanted to point out and just also broadly how you’re thinking about retention rates this upcoming year.

It’s been pretty steady. So do you think 70%, 75% is still reasonable or any reasons it could go higher or lower over the next few quarters here?

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I’d say that’s reasonable. It would be 70% plus or minus in that area. And also keep in mind that we only have two rollovers remaining that are greater than 200,000 square feet. So again, we feel pretty good about where our retention is going to be this year.

Vince Tibone — Analyst, Green Street Advisors

Great, thank you.

Operator

And the next question comes from Teo Ocucena with Deutsche Bank. Please go ahead.

Omatayo Okusanya

Yes, good morning, everyone. I just wanted to get your thoughts around tariff policy and this kind of upcoming decision by the Supreme Court, how you think through all those different scenarios. What could happen then if the Supreme Court does strike down current tariff policy, does the administration come back with alternatives? Does that create more kind of headline risk or uncertainty going forward? And how do you kind of think just through all the scenarios and how it could potentially impact tenant demand? Thanks.

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, sure. We’ll take a shot at this. So a year ago when we had this call we were feeling pretty good about 2025 and then April 2 came and it significantly slowed down the interest in investing in new growth on the part of our prospects and tenancy in our sector.

They have had the whole year to think through, digest, remodel, replan and resource and now that topic is far less acute than it was. So I don’t know is the answer to your question of whether you’re going to see a big reaction to the positive if the Supreme Court knocks them down? I would expect the reaction to be muted. I think many, many prospects have moved on and I think we’re kind of over that hump now. It doesn’t mean as an issue that it’s gone, but I think we’ve gotten over the hard part.

Omatayo Okusanya

Helpful. Thank you.

Operator

And the next question comes from Mike Mueller with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Michael Mueller

Yeah, hi. In terms of potential dispositions that you’ve been thinking about, where are you seeing the best economics to you? Is it higher and better use land sales basically, or user sales? I’m assuming it’s not just traditional industrial sales with lower growth prospects.

Scott Musil — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. So certainly the higher and better use, I mean it’s potential data center use. That’s not a secret. The value pickups can be significant. Making them, you know, those are things we’re going to pursue. Absolutely. If we have the opportunity.

With respect to everyday sales, industrial sales, certainly. Users and users bought our two buildings in the third quarter, for example. Users and 1031 buyers are always going to pay a little bit more. They have lots of reasons to do so. So those are the target markets. And it doesn’t mean that there won’t be opportunities with institutional capital as well. So that’s the landscape.

Michael Mueller

Got it. Okay, thank you.

Operator

The next question comes from Rich Anderson with Cantor Fitzgerald. Please go ahead.

Rich Anderson — Analyst, Cantor Fitzgerald

Thanks. Good morning. So just a finer point. On the Inland Empire land, you can create a small company out of all the buildable square feet you have there. What is your kind of thought process about holding onto most of that or selling some of it? I mean it could become an incredible asset if we get some real sort of stabilization in Southern California in general. So should we expect that to be remain a very large chunk of your land bank or is it possible that you would take the bait and sell some of that land for whatever use? What is your mindset as it relates to your longer term view of the market? Thanks.

Johannson Yap — Chief Investment Officer

You’ve covered the water front appropriately with your question. We think it’s very valuable. Our land holdings there are very valuable. It doesn’t get easier to get entitlements there. It only gets more difficult. It’s one of the topics that kind of gets forgotten as everyone’s focused on development, leasing and rent growth and other things. But it’s still getting more and more difficult to build. In SoCal, it takes from start to finish, meaning first discussions to buy a site to putting a tenant in the building five to seven years. So we think that market’s going to come back again on a trend line comeback, not hockey stick. And that land is going to be very viable.

Having said all of this, we’re absolutely open to being opportunistic and taking advantage of opportunities to sell land there. There are some holdings that we might decide to take out anyway and we’re still evaluating that. But again, we’re looking to maximize the value there and balance the future opportunity with the present opportunity.

Rich Anderson — Analyst, Cantor Fitzgerald

Okay, great. That’s all I have. Thanks.

Operator

The next question comes from Brendan lynch with Barclays. Please go ahead.

Brendan Lynch — Analyst, Barclays

Great. Thanks for taking my questions. One on the power that’s available in your buildings, it sounds like there’s some element of stranded power in each asset. Is there an opportunity to either reposition that power elsewhere or somehow generate rental revenue out of that for EDGE data centers, as we saw with one of your peers recently. Any color on that would be helpful,

Scott Musil — Chief Financial Officer

Peter,

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

It’s Peter, I wouldn’t say there’s a lot of stranded power and certainly some companies want to have the flexibility as they increase their operations or add technology or newer material handling equipment or air condition the building. So it’s important to have flexibility. Some jurisdictions we’re now seeing where if the tenants aren’t using all of the power, the power companies may claw it back just given the power constraints generally and some of the power grids.

So it’s something we pay close attention to and make sure we have the right power to accommodate our tenants.

Brendan Lynch — Analyst, Barclays

Great, thanks. That’s helpful. And then maybe a question for Jojo to follow up on your comments about concessions being very low on renewals and kind of more aggressive on new leasing. I’d imagine that’s typically the scenario, but it seems like it’s maybe at more of an extreme now. So any commentary on what’s driving that dynamic now versus in the past?

Johannson Yap — Chief Investment Officer

Yeah, I wouldn’t say kind of, you know, it’s extreme. But one thing we always should not forget is that when a tenant is in a space, they’ve got a tenant investment and when they relocate, there’s a lot of moving costs depending upon their tenant investment. So right there and there, that could be a deterrent from them moving. Second of all, unless they significantly need more space or they need to consolidate, they tend not to move again because of moving costs and business disruption. So then when you juxtapose that with the amount of work that needs to happen, there’s a high rate of renewal. That’s why in the industrial real estate business, even if you look back over the past 30 years, renewal rates have been 65 to 75%. And that is one of the most stable things in the industrial real estate business.

So I wouldn’t say, you know what, right now it’s an extreme. It’s really what’s going on now. The only other thing is that why is renewal a little bit earlier now than in the past five years? The reason for that is that tenants have a, because of what’s going on, probably have a longer view and they don’t want to be, you know, they want to commit earlier so they can set their rental rate more and you know, kind of take care of their future more because of maybe potential thoughts of uncertainty.

Brendan Lynch — Analyst, Barclays

Great, thank you. That’s helpful.

Operator

Again, if you have a question, please press start. And then one. Our next question comes from Vikram Malhotra with Mizuho. Please go ahead.

Vikram Malhotra — Analyst, Mizuho

Morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Just I guess two clarifications. So first of all, just on the lease of assumptions for developments and kind of how that’s translating to occupancy, do you mind just walking through any other impacts that driving the occupancy, sort of a modest bump up. And just to be clear, if you were to lease that impact those up in the back half, that should be upside to occupancy, correct?

Scott Musil — Chief Financial Officer

Vikram, It’s Scott. What we’ve assumed again is 1.7 million square feet of development leasing in the 708,000 square footer again, that’s back half of the year. So if we hit that, you’re going to be at your midpoint occupancy rate that we put out last night. I hope that answers your question. But if you have something else, please let me know.

Vikram Malhotra — Analyst, Mizuho

Is there anything else that’s positively or impacting occupancy kind of in the first half as we go into the second half?

Scott Musil — Chief Financial Officer

Well, I would say occupancy is going to increase more in the back end of the year due to this leasing assumption that we have. And as far as any other leases, Jojo talked about one of the renewals he’s working on in Southern California and I think Chris mentioned there was only one other renewal or expiration that’s above 200,000 square feet. So everything else is pretty bite sized I would say.

Vikram Malhotra — Analyst, Mizuho

Okay, and then just maybe on that PA space and tying it back to like any of the large three PLs or retailers. We’ve also heard in addition to Amazon, Walmart’s kind of very active in the market looking for space and I’m just wondering, the PA space, do you still think you need to like make the multi tenant space? Do you think it’s most likely a single tenant space? For now,

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

Bikram, It’s Peter the 708,000 square foot building in central Pennsylvania is more likely a single tenant but designed and available to be split for two tenants. And we’ve been in discussions with the prospects for either one of those scenarios. Pennsylvania continues to see to your earlier point. Good activity. There’s over 8 million square feet of deals that were signed in the fourth quarter, late third, fourth quarter of 25 that have not yet hit occupancy yet in 26. So they’re not in the occupancy numbers or the net absorption. So as we’ve said a couple times, vacancies are coming down. The construction pipeline continues to be muted. Activity is good, particularly for the largest buildings. But we acknowledge we have work to do on this asset and look forward to keeping you updated on our progress there.

Vikram Malhotra — Analyst, Mizuho

Okay, great. Then just one more if I can. Some of your peers have talked about certain sub markets or markets being an ability to push rate after multiple years and I’m just wondering, are there any markets across your portfolio where you’re being able to push rent 3 percent?

Johannson Yap — Chief Investment Officer

Sure. Nashville, texas, dallas, houston, central pennsylvania, central pa.

Vikram Malhotra — Analyst, Mizuho

Okay, great, thanks.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Peter Bacilli for any closing remarks.

Peter E. Baccile — President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you operator and thanks to everyone for participating on our call today. If you have any follow ups from our call, please reach out to Art Scott or me. Have a great weekend.

Operator

The conference is now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now disconnect.