GE Vernova Inc (NYSE: GEV) Q4 2025 Earnings Call dated Jan. 28, 2026
Corporate Participants:
Michael Lapides — Vice President of Investor Relations
Scott Strazik — Chief Executive Officer, President & Director
Kenneth Parks — Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Joseph Ritchie — Analyst
Julian Mitchell — Analyst
Nigel Coe — Analyst
Mark W. Strouse — Analyst
Alexander Virgo — Analyst
David Arcaro — Analyst
Nicole DeBlase — Analyst
Amit Mehrotra — Analyst
Andrew Kaplowitz — Analyst
Presentation:
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Thank you for holding. Your conference will begin in five minutes. Thank you for your patience.
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It.
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Sam.
operator
Thank you for holding. Your conference is about to begin. Thank you for your patience. Sa. Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to GE Vernova’s fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings conference call. At this time all participants are in a listen only mode. My name is Liz and I will be your conference coordinator today. If you experience issues with the webcast slides refreshing or there appears to be delays in the slide advancement, please hit F5 on your keyboard to refresh. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I’d now like to turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Michael Lapidis, Vice President of Investor Relations.
Please Proceed.
Michael Lapides — Vice President of Investor Relations
Welcome to GE Vernova’s fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. I’m joined today by our CEO Scott Strazik and CFO Ken Parks. Our conference call remarks will include both GAAP and non GAAP financial results. Reconciliations between GAAP and non GAAP measures can be found in today’s press release and presentation slides, both of which are available on our website. Please note that our year over year commentary or variances on orders, revenue adjusted and segment EBITDA and margin discussed during our prepared remarks are on an organic basis unless otherwise specified. In addition, our 2026 guidance and our by 2028 outlook being presented today include the Prolect GE acquisition.
We will make forward looking statements about our performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. While we may elect to update these forward looking statements at some point in the future, we do not undertake any obligation to do so as described in our SEC filings. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. With that, I’ll hand it over to Scott.
Scott Strazik — Chief Executive Officer, President & Director
Thanks Michael Good morning everyone and welcome to our fourth quarter earnings call. We have been busy since our December 9th investor update and I thought I’d start with progress since the event. First, on the positive, we continue to see very strong new gas contracts with an incremental 6 gigawatt signed in the last three weeks of December for a total of 24 gigawatts of new contracts in 4Q25 alone. We also ended the year with strong orders in both electrification and wind. Electrification had its largest order quarter in its history and wind had its largest order quarter of 25.
On the negative, we have been impacted by the US government’s halting of all offshore wind activity on December 22, which led to us booking an incremental accrual in 4Q for costs associated with the delay on the Vineyard wind project. Ken will talk more about this in his section. I’m pleased that our prolect GE acquisition has received rapid approval from all required jurisdictions. This will allow us to close the acquisition on Monday, February 2nd. Taking all this into consideration, we are raising our full year 26 financial guidance which now includes GE Vernova’s full ownership and operation of Prolecc for 11 months in 26.
Taken in totality the last three weeks of December since our last update were a reasonable proxy for our 25 performance in total strong growth in our largest, most profitable businesses with momentum, continuing challenges and wind that we are continuing to combat with accretive capital allocation with the approvals required to close our first sizable acquisition as a standalone public company, 25 sets us up for substantially more profitable growth moving forward. In 25 we increased our total backlog by over 25% or $31 billion to $150 billion, with robust profitable order growth in power and electrification further underscoring our momentum.
As we kick off 26 in power, we continue to see accelerating demand and favorable pricing trends for both equipment and services as customers invest in new units and existing assets. In 4Q, gas power equipment backlog and slot reservations increased from 62 to 83 gigawatts sequentially primarily due to strong US demand, but also with agreements in the Middle East, Vietnam and Taiwan. With backlog increasing from 33 to 40 gigawatts and SRAs increasing from 29 to 43 gigawatts, we expect to reach approximately 100 gigawatts under contract in 26 under the assumption we’ll ship high teens and gigawatts this year with new contracts north of 30 gigawatts.
In 4Q, we grew our power services backlog to $70 billion, up $5 billion sequentially and $9 billion year over year. This increase was mainly driven by strength in gas with customers investing in fleets and signing new long term service agreements at favorable pricing which drove strong high margin services backlog Growth in Electrification customers are working to keep pace with growing electricity demand, grid stability needs and national security interests. In 4Q, we grew the segment’s total backlog to $35 billion, up 4 billion sequentially and 11 billion year over year, representing electrification’s largest growth quarter on a dollar basis in 25.
Importantly, we are seeing demand across the segment for grid and data center equipment, both with traditional customers globally and hyperscalers primarily in the US. Of note, over 2 billion of electrifications orders were signed directly for data centers in 25, more than triple the 24 total. We also signed large deals for providing grid resilience and reliability solutions in Saudi Arabia and Australia, an HVDC contract in Germany and a large grid equipment contract in Iraq. In the year in wind, we received approximately 3 billion of orders in 4Q, the largest of the year for the segment. In onshore, we continue to receive tech selects for repowering and new units as customers utilize safe harbor and initiate physical work for approximately 10 gigawatts of repowering opportunities in the U.S.
the team is focused on what we can control. Taken together, our pathway to substantially more profitable growth is right in front of us. I’ll talk about this more on page five. With the growth of margin in our equipment backlog, including $8 billion of incremental margin added to our equipment backlog in 25, I’m also pleased with the returns that our 25 investments are yielding. On the CapEx side, we remain on track to see a substantial step up in gas turbine output. In 3Q26, we installed over 200 new machines in our factories while adding nearly 1000 new production workers in 25, we plan on adding an incremental 200 machines and over 500 production workers in 26.
Electrification is on track with its growth, delivering more than 25% revenue growth in 25 with a clear pathway to deliver 13.5 to $14 billion in revenue representing 20% organic growth plus approximately 3 billion from Prolact GE in 26. Our investments in automation robotics are advancing at scale and AI is starting to gain momentum in our engineering organizations and back office functions. Our advanced Research center is progressing future businesses for us. This includes direct air capture where we already have a facility up and running, real momentum in our solid state transformer program and a good technical progress on our fuel cell program in Malta, New York.
We are making all of these investments from a position of financial strength, ending the year with almost $9 billion in cash. In 25 we were able to return 3.6 billion to our shareholders while repurchasing more than 8 million of our shares. We continue to see substantial opportunity to create value, including through incremental investments with strong returns. A few more comments on our financial performance on page four. We booked $59 billion of orders up 34% year over year. We also grew our revenue by 9% year over year to 38 billion with growth in both equipment and services while increasing our adjusted EBITDA margin by 210 basis points year over year.
We generated $3.7 billion in free cash flow, more than double our prior year, while investing more than 2 billion in R&D and CapEx. We are increasing our 26 guidance and by 28 outlook, which now includes Pro Life GE. Ken will speak to this more in a moment and as announced, we are doubling our dividend in 26 versus 25 and have increased our stock buyback authorization to $10 billion from the previously approved $6 billion program. One of the primary drivers of our conviction on our path forward is the significant growth and margin expansion in our equipment backlog again in 25, which I will touch on in the next page.
On page five we show the growth of margin in our equipment backlog consistent with our practice from last January. We started 25 with the expectation to increase our margin dollars in equipment backlog above our run rate in the prior two years. We achieved that expectation, adding $8 billion in equipment backlog margin dollars in 25 more than the prior two years combined. We ended 25 with $64 billion in equipment backlog, an increase of approximately 50% year over year with an incremental 6 points in equipment margin expansion. This included 11 points of growth in power, mainly driven by our gas power business.
We expect significant growth again in power and electrification’s backlog in 26 at better margins as we convert higher priced gas slot reservation agreements into orders and benefit from strong demand and pricing for grid equipment. These businesses longer equipment cycles mean that we will not begin delivering on the majority of the higher margin orders placed in 24 and 25 until 27 and beyond. In wind, we expect relatively stable margins this year and for backlog to decrease as as we execute on the remaining unprofitable offshore wind backlog and project a smaller onshore wind backlog. Given the recent softness in US orders as we noted in December, we see incremental opportunity for the teams to expand margins that are not projected in our backlog today.
This includes our operating teams delivering our backlog with variable cost productivity versus known cost today, accelerating capacity additions, leveraging lean to sell incremental slots and a recovery in US onshore wind orders. In summary, good progress in 25 and we are excited about what’s ahead with continued strong demand in pricing and gas, the strong demand environment across multiple products and electrification, and my expectation for the team to drive variable cost productivity not embedded in our backlog margins today. We expect to add at least as much equipment margin dollars in backlog in 26 as in 25, setting us up for even more profitable growth over the long term said differently.
In totality, the equipment margin in backlog from 23 to 26 those four years will add at least $22 billion in equipment margin, driving future profitable growth. With that, I will turn the call over to Ken for more details on our full year and fourth quarter performance as well as our financial outlook.
Kenneth Parks — Chief Financial Officer
Thanks Scott. Turning to slide 6, we finished 2025 strong with robust orders, growing backlog and revenues margin expansion and significant free cash flow generation. In the fourth quarter we booked orders of $22.2 billion, a 65% increase year over year and a book to bill ratio of approximately two times. Equipment orders increased 91% while service orders increased 22%. All three segments delivered significant orders growth across equipment and services. As Scott mentioned, our backlog expanded to $150 billion a year over year and sequential increase with equipment backlog increasing to $64 billion, up approximately $21 billion and 50% year over year, while our services backlog grew $10 billion or 13% year over year to $86 billion.
Led by power, revenue increased 2% with services growth in all three segments. Equipment revenue was flat year over year as 41% growth at electrification and 8% growth at power was offset by anticipated lower wind revenues. Price was positive in all segments. Adjusted EBITDA grew 6% year over year to $1.2 billion, led by electrification and power. Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded 30 basis points with higher price and productivity more than offsetting higher contract losses at offshore wind as well as inflation investments in growth and innovation. The strong adjusted EBITDA and Working Capital management drove positive free cash flow of $1.8 billion in the fourth quarter.
Working capital was a $2.3 billion cash benefit driven primarily by down payments on higher orders and slot reservations at power as well as higher orders at electrification. Year over year, free cash flow increased more than $1 billion, driven by higher positive benefits from Working Capital and stronger adjusted EBITDA, partially offset by higher CapEx investments. Supporting capacity expansion we ended 4Q with a healthy cash balance of nearly $9 billion, up approximately $1 billion compared to the third quarter. During the fourth quarter, we returned $1.1 billion of cash to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends. Also, both S and P and Fitch upgraded our investment grade credit ratings and maintained positive outlooks on these upgraded ratings.
In early February, we expect to issue roughly $2.6 billion of debt as we complete the previously announced acquisition of the remaining 50% ownership stake of Prolect. GE will remain below 1 times gross debt to adjusted EBITDA. After this debt issuance, we’re encouraged by our strong financial performance in 2025. During the year we secured $59 billion of orders, led by power equipment orders more than doubling and electrification equipment orders growing more than 20%. Service orders increased 12% with growth in each segment. We delivered approximately $38 billion in revenue with 26% growth in electrification and 10% growth in power.
We increased adjusted EBITDA by 46% and expanded margins 210 basis points driven by price, volume and productivity more than offsetting the impact of growth and innovation investments and the impact of tariffs. Finally, we generated $3.7 billion of free cash flow a year over year increase of $2 billion. As discussed in prior quarters, we continue to utilize lean to improve our billings and collection processes and drive better cash management and linearity. In 2025, we reduced days sales outstanding by 2 days compared to year end 2024, resulting in over $200 million of additional free cash flow in 2025.
Our growing backlog and healthy margin provides an excellent foundation for continued improvement in our financial performance moving forward. Turning to Slide seven Power delivered another strong year led by Gas Power power orders in 2025 grew more than 50% given robust demand for gas equipment and growth in services which combined increased backlog by more than $20 billion. Power grew revenue 10% for the year and expanded EBITDA margins by 100 basis points to 14.7% driven by higher price and productivity primarily at gas power and steam power. In the fourth quarter, power power orders grew 77% led by gas Power equipment tripling year over year on higher volume and pricing.
We booked 41 heavy duty gas turbines, our largest orders quarter of the year and an increase of more than 70% year over year including 15 ha units. We also secured orders for 18 arrow derivative units, that’s eight more than the fourth quarter of 2024. Power services orders increased 15% as customers continue to invest in their existing fleets. Revenue increased 5%. Services revenue increased due to higher gas transactional services and nuclear equipment Revenue increased driven by nuclear as we progress in building our first SMR at the Darlington site with OPG as well as aeroderivative growth at Gas Power.
This growth was partially offset by fewer heavy duty gas turbine shipments, primarily due to the improved linearity of deliveries through 2025 compared to 2024. EBITDA margins expanded 160 basis points to 16.9% mainly driven by price and productivity more than offsetting additional expenses to support capacity investments at gas and R and D at nuclear along with inflation. Looking to the first quarter of 2026 at Power, we expect continued year over year growth in gas equipment orders. We also anticipate high single digit revenue growth driven by both higher equipment and services. We expect EBITDA margin of approximately 14 to 15% as volume, price and productivity should more than offset additional expenses to support capacity and R and D investments as well as inflation.
Given the typical seasonality of services, outage power, revenue and EBITDA margin should be lower sequentially in the first quarter. Turning to slide 8 the wind team delivered similar EBITDA losses in 2025 despite the impact of tariffs driven by improved pricing and higher turbine deliveries at onshore. Wind offset by offshore due to the absence of contract cancellation settlement gain recorded in the third quarter of 2024 net of lower year over year contract losses in the fourth quarter, wind orders increased 53% year over year, mainly due to improved onshore equipment orders primarily outside of North America. However, it’s still difficult to call an inflection point in US Orders as customers still face permitting delays and tariff uncertainty at offshore.
We remain focused on executing our challenged backlog. Wind revenue decreased 25% in the quarter given lower onshore equipment deliveries as a result of softening orders over the last year. Wind EBITDA losses were $225 million in the quarter below the fourth quarter of 2024 levels due to higher offshore contract losses, including the impact of the recently issued US Order to halt construction of all offshore projects and lower onshore equipment volume partially offset by improved onshore services. For the year, wind losses came in at approximately $600 million higher than our expectations of approximately $400 million outlined during our December investor event driven by the US government’s December 22nd stop work order for offshore wind projects.
Until that point, the team was on a path to achieve these expectations as they worked to complete the Vineyard Wind project in early January. The order created a potential delay of at least 90 days and and we accrued in 4Q the estimated incremental contract losses for the extension of installation work. As a reminder, the project has 62 turbines in total and we’ve made significant progress with only 10 turbines needing blades and one turbine left to be installed at the time of the stop work order. At any time the order is in place, we are unable to execute the project.
This and the resulting incremental costs are excused under a declaration of force majeure prompted by the government action. We understand that Vineyard Wind received an injunction of the Stop Work order yesterday. If given permission to resume work soon, we would work to complete installation of the remaining turbines by the end of March. At the end of March, we’ll lose access to the vessel required to complete installation of the remaining turbines if we’re unable to complete the installation of the remaining 11 turbines. 2026 wind revenue could be negatively impacted by approximately $250 million due to our inability to bill the customer for those turbines.
Because of our contract loss accruals and protection from incremental costs resulting from the Stop Work order, we do not anticipate significant additional negative EBITDA impacts for the Vineyard Wind project beyond the amounts already recorded for first quarter 2026. We anticipate wind revenue to decline at high teens rate year over year due to lower onshore equipment deliveries. We expect EBITDA losses to be between $300 million and $400 million down year over year, primarily as a result of lower onshore equipment volume as well as the approximately $70 million impact of tariffs that started in 2Q of last year.
Looking at 2026, we expect significant improvement in wind revenue in the second half of the year, given only 30% of our expected onshore turbine shipments are in the first half, as almost 70% of our 2025 equipment orders came later in the year. Also, the volume we’re shipping in the first half has fewer contractual protections for tariffs since we signed these orders before their implementation. As a result, we expect EBITDA losses in the first half to be partially offset by profitability in the second half. Now turning to electrification on Slide 9, strong demand and price resulted in 21% orders growth and 26% revenue growth in 2025.
Electrification equipment orders continued outpacing revenue, further increasing the equipment backlog to $31 billion, up more than $10 billion compared to the fourth quarter of 2024. EBITDA margins expanded 560 basis points to 14.9%, driven by volume, favorable price and productivity. In the fourth quarter, orders remained strong at roughly two and a half times revenue and increased 50% year over year to approximately $7.4 billion due to growing grid equipment demand, particularly for synchronous condensers, substations partially to support data center growth and switchgear. We saw strong equipment orders growth in the Middle east which increased over $1 billion, and in North America which more than doubled year over year.
Revenue increased 32% with growth across all regions. We saw strong volume and higher price driven by switchgear and HVDC equipment EBITDA increased 63% in the quarter with margin expansion of 320 basis points to 17.1%. Margin expansion was led by more profitable volume, productivity and favorable pricing. Looking to the first quarter of 2026, we anticipate continued solid equipment orders with healthy margins. First quarter electrification revenues should be similar to the fourth quarter of 2025 as we include prolect GE resulting in a significant year over year increase. We expect continued strong EBITDA margin expansion to 16 to 17% from volume, price and productivity.
Moving to Slide 10 to discuss GE Vernova guidance for the first quarter of 2026 based on our expectations for the segments as already outlined, we expect continued year over year revenue growth and adjusted EBITDA margin expansion. We also expect to deliver positive free cash flow in the first quarter of 2026. Given our ongoing focus on aligning the timing of inflows and outflows along with the impact of down payments which correlate with the timing of orders for the full year, we’re increasing our 2026 guidance provided in December to now include the Prolect GE acquisition. We now expect full year 2026 revenue to be in the range of 44 to $45 billion, up from 41 to $42 billion with growth in both services and equipment.
We continue to expect adjusted ebitda margins of 11 to 13% as we deliver our growing backlog with favorable pricing plus improved operational execution. We’re also increasing our free cash flow guidance to between 5 and $5.5 billion, up from 4.5 to $5 billion by segment. We continue to expect 16 to 18% of organic revenue growth in power driven by gas power. We anticipate power EBITDA margins to be between 16 and 18% as positive price, increased volume, leverage and productivity more than offset inflationary impacts and the additional expenses for AI automation and increased production in electrification. We now anticipate revenue to be between 13.5 and $14 billion which represents 20% organic growth plus approximately $3 billion of revenue from Prolek GE.
We continue to expect EBITDA margin to expand to 17 to 19% as we deliver our more profitable backlog in wind. Organic revenue is expected to be down low double digits due to decreased onshore equipment revenues given the softness in orders, but we expect EBITDA losses to be approximately $400 million in 2026 which is consistent with our expectations discussed in December as improvement in onshore wind services and offshore wind offset the lower onshore equipment volume. We expect 2026 GEV adjusted EBITDA to be more second half weighted than 2025 with the highest revenue and EBITDA in 4Q26.
We expect higher second half gas power revenue as we ship more gas turbines in the second half of the year as we increase annual production capacity to approximately 20 gigawatts starting in mid year 26. We also anticipate typical gas services seasonality with the highest outage volume in the fourth quarter. We continue to expect electrification EBITDA to increase sequentially through the year following the completion of the prolect GE acquisition and as mentioned earlier in wind we expect higher second half onshore turbine shipments given our recent orders profile and better services. Profitability at corporate costs are typically uneven across quarters due to compensation timing and portfolio activity at our financial services business.
We expect full year 2026 corporate cost to be between $450 and $500 million as we continue investing in AI, robotics and automation to drive productivity over the medium and long term. Turning to slide 11 we’re also increasing our by 2028 outlook to include Prolect GE. We now project at least $56 billion of total revenue by 2028, up from $52 billion implying a low teens growth CAGR through 2028 and we still expect to achieve adjusted ebitda margins of 20%. We’re increasing our cumulative GE Vernova free cash flow generation from 25 to 28 by approximately $2 billion to at least $24 billion which incorporates nearly $1 billion of incremental capex from Prolec GE to support increased transformer production.
This brings Our expected cumulative CAPEX and R& D investments through this period to approximately $11 billion at electrification. By incorporating proleg GE into our 28 by 28 outlook, we now expect approximately $4 billion of incremental revenue on top of high teens organic growth and we maintain expectations for 22% EBITDA margins. We’re not including any synergies from the Prolecc acquisition into our updated outlook, but we see real opportunities in both revenues as well as costs.
Kenneth Parks — Chief Financial Officer
Overall.
Kenneth Parks — Chief Financial Officer
The combination of rising demand combined with the consistently stronger execution investments into our business and the acquisition of prolect GE sets us up nicely going forward. With that I’ll turn it back to Scott.
Scott Strazik — Chief Executive Officer, President & Director
Thanks Ken. It’s a wrap few themes we are executing well in the early stages of our multi year growth trajectory. This is evidenced in the $150 billion backlog we enter 26 with versus roughly $100 billion in backlog that we entered 22 with after the announcement of our spin from GE in November of 21. Just think about that for a moment. Just over four years ago we announced our separation from GE and today our backlog is 50% larger than it was upon the time of the spin announcement. The steepness of our growth trajectory is probably best evidenced in our electrification segment, which I often say has been the largest beneficiary of GeV working as one purpose built focused company now better linking the commercial muscle and customer relationships of our power and wind businesses with the electrification solutions we provide.
Electrification generated about $5 billion in revenue in 22 and we now expect that number to be 13.5 to 14 billion in 26. And we are just getting started. But this isn’t about growth for growth’s sake. In the last three years alone we’ve more than doubled our GeV equipment backlog, adding over $14 billion in future margin dollars in this backlog while adding 13 billion in high margin services backlog over the same period. On the operations front, we are improving but culturally hunting every day for waste and opportunities to serve our customers in a more efficient manner.
Take our transformer product line inside electrification. Our labor hours were up 39% in 4Q with output increasing more than 50% year over year as we drive significant productivity at these sites and we now see real opportunity to apply a similar playbook to the five large factories we are acquiring with prolact gear and onshore wind. Our critical customer facing events are down over 50% in 25 versus 24 and the business is well positioned to deliver a much more profitable services business in 26. But we also are running the business with the humility to acknowledge we continue to have real opportunity to improve on our execution in areas like offshore wind and as we complete our only two projects, we are doing all this while investing across the near mid and long term horizons.
Our customers and investors will see substantial value creation from our increased gas turbine output starting in 3q26. These incremental returns are right in front of us less than 180 days from now. Other investments we are making are just starting to take shape, but I have high confidence that our automation and AI investment returns will grow in 27, becoming a bigger part of our margin expansion in 28. These investment returns are not included in our 28 financial outlook today and as we invest in these time horizons we also are investing in businesses for the next decade.
We expect SMR to contribute meaningfully to the top line of our power business in the next Decade. We’re making real progress in construction of our first plant in Ontario today, while continuing to invest in the engineering to drive down the cost of the product for the long term. Nuclear was a drag on power’s 25 margins and we expect 26 to be directionally similar, but our customers and investors are will see this value in the next decade. Similar theme with our solid state transformer product line. We’ve completed production of our first unit and just two weeks ago I visited our new testing facility in upstate New York that we’ll be using to test and validate the performance of this first unit before delivering the completed solution to our hyperscaler customer in the autumn of this year.
And we can do all of this while returning substantial capital to our shareholders, as evidenced in our $3.6 billion return of capital in 25 and our announced increase in our dividend and share buyback program. So we enter 26 pumped up about the company we are creating, the opportunities to serve our customers and deliver returns for our owners, not only in 26, but through cycles and for the long term. With that, I’ll hand it to Michael for the Q and A part of the call.
Michael Lapides — Vice President of Investor Relations
Before we open the line, I’d ask everyone in the queue to consider your fellow analysts and ask one question so we can get to as many people as possible. Please return in the queue if you have follow ups. Operator, please open the line.
Questions and Answers:
operator
Ladies and gentlemen, if you wish to ask a question, please press star 11 on your telephone. If you wish to withdraw your question or your question has already been answered, please press star 11. Our first question comes from Joe Richie with Goldman Sachs.
Scott Strazik
Good morning, Joe. Hey guys.
Joseph Ritchie
Good morning. Hey, good morning guys.
Joseph Ritchie
So let’s just.
Joseph Ritchie
I’m just going to focus my one.
Joseph Ritchie
Question on gas power equipment orders.
Joseph Ritchie
Clearly incredible momentum in 2025. I think your original expectation was for backlog and for SRAs to be roughly around 60 gigawatts and you ended at 83. Now you have an expectation of 100 gigawatts by the end of 2026. Scott, maybe just talk about just the.
Joseph Ritchie
Nature of your discussions. Have they changed at all types of customers?
Joseph Ritchie
And then also you did mention that.
Joseph Ritchie
You expected the margin in your backlog.
Joseph Ritchie
To be better as well.
Joseph Ritchie
So it sounds like the pricing discussions have also been positive.
Joseph Ritchie
Thank you.
Scott Strazik
Yeah, Joe.
Scott Strazik
I mean, on the end of that I’d say yes. Pricing does continue to strengthen. When we look at where we’re trending with our slot reservation agreements today versus our existing backlog, there’s another 10 to 20 points of pricing strength in the SRAs today. We are pleased. You’re right. We were talking in the middle of last year at 60 gigawatts and landed at 83 because the intensity of the discussions, really late summer, fall, right through the holidays have continued to be very intense. When you think about this year getting to 100 gigawatts by the end of the year, what I would tell you is it’s likely going to be a.
Scott Strazik
Larger proportion of orders.
Scott Strazik
Today with the 83 gigawatts, it’s 40 gigawatts of orders, 43 gigawatts of SRAs. That probably shifts towards more of a 60, 40 split with 60% on order over the course of 2026 then really the question that we will have to evaluate and share with you as we go is how many customers are ready to commit to slots today for really 31 to 35. Our 100 gigawatt assumption that we talked about today doesn’t really assume a lot of those, let’s call it framework agreements get closed in 2026. But they’re active discussions right now and active discussions we’re going to keep working.
That could take that 60, 40 split of 60 gigawatts of orders directionally and 40 gigawatts of SRAs to see the SRA number grow even higher over the course of this year. But it’s January and we want to see how those discussions progress.
Scott Strazik
Thanks, Joe.
operator
The next question comes from Julian Mitchell with Barclays.
Julian Mitchell
Hi, good morning.
Julian Mitchell
Just wanted to circle back to the gas power equipment market because I suppose we get a lot of questions from investors around smaller turbine makers looking to grab share, looking to take advantage of the fact that you’re trying to be measured on capacity increases and there are very long lead times. Obviously there was an announcement of someone looking to repurpose ancient narrowbody engines for power gen supply. So I just wondered, I suppose two things. One was how serious do you think the threat of market share gains from that plethora of smaller players is? And do you think that they could have some negative effects on pricing in the equipment market as their capacity and share gain efforts ramp up in the years ahead?
Julian Mitchell
Thank you.
Scott Strazik
Thanks, Julian. I would just reinforce the comment I made before, which is we do see our slot reservation agreements 10 to 20 points higher in price than where we are, their backlog. So we’re continuing to gain price as we continue to play this game in gas. Frankly, a lot of the smaller applications are simply enabling more projects to get started because what it’s enabling is earlier power that truthfully we can’t provide. But then on the back end, as the heavy duty gas turbines are available, those smaller applications will become the reliability solution on the back of the on the heavy duty gas turbines.
So what we talk about every day is this is about economics and when you’re underwriting 20 year business cases, efficiency matters a lot when you’re running these units at baseload. So now with humility, we don’t really view those smaller units to be competition. But that doesn’t mean that’s not a good business in the near term. I think those smaller applications could do very good business the next few years. But we also have just as much conviction in the competitiveness and the value proposition our heavy duty gas turbines are providing. And we’ll continue to provide and we expect to continue to have the attractive share in the market that we have.
Scott Strazik
Had and will continue to have.
Kenneth Parks
And Julian, I know you know this, but we obviously play in a piece of that as well. Right? So we have arrow derivative units and I think last year we booked orders for about 63 of those, which was up significantly year over year because of us playing in that market. It informs those comments that Scott just made, which is we know how the customers are thinking thinking about utilizing that equipment in the midterm.
operator
The next question comes from Nigel Koh with Wolff Research.
Nigel Coe
Thanks.
Nigel Coe
Good morning. So my one question is on the backlog margins specifically for power. So 11 points of improvement year over year is really impressive.
Nigel Coe
Maybe just could you talk about the.
Nigel Coe
17 points of improvement since year end 22. The starting point would have been about a break even. I just want to confirm that. And then based on where you’re pricing turbines today, would you expect backlog margin to continue improving in 2026?
Scott Strazik
That’s fair.
Scott Strazik
That directionally the starting points approximately break even. And most definitely we expect the margins in equipment backlog and power to continue to grow at a very healthy clip in 26. And that’s why we articulated on the call that we expect to add at least as much equipment margin and backlog in 26, that is at least $8 billion this year as we did last year.
Scott Strazik
And we get excited about that not only on the equipment side of it, but if you think about the pricing on the service contract that comes along with a new heavy duty gas turbine as the pricing is accelerating on the equipment itself, as we sign those new contracts for service orders, we’ll see incremental pricing there. So your point is exactly right. We’re seeing accretion in margins on the equipment. That also leads to a long life of pricing improvement on the service side of the portfolio.
Scott Strazik
Because when you think about it, everybody, we added about $12 billion of equipment backlog and power. We added $9 billion of services backlog.
Scott Strazik
And power over the course of the year.
Scott Strazik
Both are experiencing real margin accretion.
operator
The next question comes from Mark Strauss with JP Morgan.
Scott Strazik
Morning, Mark.
Kenneth Parks
Hi, Mark.
Mark W. Strouse
Hey, good morning, everybody. Thanks for taking my questions. Scott, maybe switching gears to the electrification segment, just kind of stepping back, kind of leading up to the spin, just.
Mark W. Strouse
Kind of the opportunity that you’ve been.
Mark W. Strouse
Talking about kind of investing in that business to expand it from what it’s been over the last decade or so. Obviously you’re clearly making progress with the orders. You talked about kind of record orders.
Mark W. Strouse
In 4Q to the extent that it’s possible.
Mark W. Strouse
Can you just kind of update? How much of that do you think is really driven by just kind of the overall market strength versus what GE is doing specifically to gain market share?
Mark W. Strouse
Thank you.
Scott Strazik
Well, I mean, Mark, with humility, I would argue that we’re able to provide a very unique solution to the end customers today with the linkage of the power generation and the electrical equipment together in a way that it is difficult for many other providers to do.
Scott Strazik
So.
Scott Strazik
This isn’t simply about drafting on a larger market. I would say that was maybe more of a theme in 23 as the European market started to move post the Ukraine crisis, that supply and demand created an opportunity for us and we took advantage of it. That was a 23 theme. 25 theme is we’re providing a differentiated solution and our ability to link power generation solutions with electrical equipment is positioning us to continue to grow this business on an outsized basis. So I look at the business and I say $14 billion of revenue in 2026 directionally.
We think our addressable market today with the products we sell is directionally $150 billion. So I mean, we’re at like 10% of our directional market and there’s a lot we can do now.
Scott Strazik
Yeah.
Scott Strazik
To earn that, we’ve got to get better with our operations. And that’s why we talked about the fact that from 24 to 28, we’re doubling our output with transformers and switch gears. And most of that is coming from more shifts, more investments in how we operate.
Scott Strazik
That helps.
Scott Strazik
And at the same time, we talked about things like solid state transformers. In December, I mentioned it in my prepared remarks. Two weeks ago, I saw our first product that is completed.
Scott Strazik
We will be testing it over the.
Scott Strazik
Course of the summer before we deliver it to the hyperscaler customer.
Scott Strazik
That could be a substantial order for.
Scott Strazik
Us with a new product line in 2027 for deliveries later in the decade. So I continue to grow my optimism and frankly my expectations with how material this is as a part of GE Vernova. And we’re going to keep leaning into.
Scott Strazik
This business and then it’s a great opportunity to think about the prolecc acquisition. Right, because you talked about what are we able to do, not only just from a market, but from a GeV perspective, bringing things together. This was one of the primary reasons that we were so excited about the prolecc acquisition because there were terms and conditions around the arrangement which allowed us to keep things within certain markets. Now that it’s totally going to be consolidated by GEB and fully owned by geb, we’re able to optimize where we can have transformers go around the world.
So that’s a really good thing. But one of the other opportunities as well is Prolek is a provider of distribution transformers, which are a key part of what’s going into data centers. So this opportunity of bringing GeV together and how it’s benefiting the electrification business runs right exactly to what Scott says. But it gave me the opportunity to remind everybody what the importance of this ProLock acquisition is.
operator
The next question comes from Alexander Virgo with Evercore isi.
Alexander Virgo
Yeah, thanks.
Alexander Virgo
Morning everybody and appreciate you taking the question.
Scott Strazik
Morning, Alex.
Kenneth Parks
Can we stand? Alexander,
Alexander Virgo
hi. Can we stay on electrification, please? And just integrating Prolek. I’m surprised there hasn’t been a little bit more of an accretion on the original margin guidance. So I wondered if you could just talk a little bit about costs to integrate and investment that you might need to do to make sure that you get the benefit of what you’ve just talked about and think about how that margin profile might look as we look out to the 2028 guidance. Thanks very much.
Scott Strazik
I mean, Alexander, I’d just start by saying no change from the expectations from prolac from what we talked about when we closed the deal in October. You know, the reality is we could have a little bit of debate as to, you know, whether we wanted to change the margin guide by basis points, to be exact, to where we had framed things up in October. What I would just interpret is this gives us even more opportunity to outperform.
Scott Strazik
Over the course of.
Scott Strazik
Of 26. I wouldn’t overthink that there’s been any change in the Financial contribution From Prolecc.
Scott Strazik
In 11 months of call it the.
Scott Strazik
26 or at all, the 28 expectations, frankly, if anything, we’ve had a very productive three months of integration meetings and are very excited for this to be part of the company on Monday.
operator
The next question comes from David Arcaro with Morgan Stanley.
Scott Strazik
Morning, David.
Kenneth Parks
Morning, David. Hey, good morning.
David Arcaro
Thanks so much. I was wondering if you could touch.
David Arcaro
On the nuclear space. You know, we’ve seen a lot of.
David Arcaro
Momentum on the policy side, deal side in the SMR space. Wondering if you could talk to your project opportunities.
David Arcaro
Have things accelerated?
David Arcaro
Could there be opportunities for more SMR deals? Thanks, David.
Scott Strazik
The opportunity is great. The discussions are progressing. What I would say with nuclear may be a little bit different than gas and grid because we’re really restarting an industry here in the western world is they’re progressing, they’re sequential. There’s a lot of terms and conditions that are being discussed. We’re working very closely with the US administration that is very determined to restart a nuclear industry in the US and we’re very motivated to serve them on that path. We’re also having productive conversations in Sweden, in Poland today that we’re very optimistic about going forward, but it may take a little while before they translate to announcements.
So we’re into a new year. We’re working hard with a number of both governments and customer archetypes, including the hyperscalers, on what this can mean for them and let’s call it the first half of the next decade. So opportunity pipeline growing, but the timing to close is going to be a little bit different than the intensity of the close velocity right now with gas and grid.
operator
The next question comes from Nicole Deblaze with Deutsche Bank. Yeah, thanks. Good morning, guys.
Scott Strazik
Morning, Nicole.
Nicole DeBlase
Scott, I wanted to get your thoughts on something a bit higher level. A few weeks ago we had this announcement from Trump kind of pushing for an emergency power auction. I’m really curious about your reaction to that, both with respect to the potential impact on gas power demand, the market in the US as well as gev. Thank you.
Scott Strazik
There’s clearly a need to continue to evolve the market mechanisms to encourage what’s needed in this country, which is substantially more new build of firm fixed power generation capacity. Whether that happens through the auction mechanism. A few weeks ago announced by the administration allowing hyperscalers to bid into a separate auction for separate PPAs. That’s one pathway to do it. Do we probably need in a number of markets a capacity auction mechanism that provides more years of revenue guarantee for more build to happen today, definitely. The market’s already moving, right? We moved into 25 with 46 gigawatts on contract.
We ended the year with 83. We’ll end this year with at least 100. So the market is moving regardless. But we are very motivated by continuing to iterate with the administration on how to enable even faster growth and simultaneously thinking our way through on how we’ll fulfill if that happens. So motivated by the announcement a few weeks ago, but I’d also emphasize it’s early.
Scott Strazik
I think.
Scott Strazik
Changing policy and how these markets have worked isn’t going to happen overnight. But clearly you can see in our orders book that the market continues to move our way regardless.
operator
The next question comes from Amit Mehrotra with ubs.
Scott Strazik
Morning Amit.
Kenneth Parks
Morning, Amit.
Amit Mehrotra
Hey Scott. Hey Ken, thanks for taking my question. Just one clarifying question. Can you just update us on what.
Amit Mehrotra
You’Re sold out through?
Amit Mehrotra
I think last time it was 2028 on both heavy duty and error derivatives. I mean these backlog numbers are eye popping, so I assume we’re going out quite further. And then just one clarification on electrification. I know you talked about it earlier, but it just seems like the organic growth expectations have maybe come down for 26 when you include Prolecc in there relative to the 20% you had last year. Maybe I’m doing my math wrong, but if you could just clarify that point, that’d be helpful.
Kenneth Parks
Let me do the last part first and then I’ll hand it back to Scott. No, the organic growth expectations haven’t come down. When we give you the organic growth number, we’re giving it to you without Prolix. So just to make that easy, we’re saying the organic growth for electrification and then just add the $3 billion on top of it. So there’s been no change in the expectations for electrification negatively and they’ve demonstrated.
Scott Strazik
An ability to outperform the last few years with their ramp. Let’s see how they do this year. But yeah, no change emit from December 9th on the gas capacity. The reality is the 83 gigawatts that we now have on capacity is certainly very heavily playing into 29, but there are slots in 30 and beyond that are also secured. So we do continue to have capacity available today at 83 gigawatts on contract for 2029. That said, by the time we get to 100 gigawatts, which we’re now projecting by the end of the year that 100 gigawatts directionally will have both 29 and 30 largely sold out based on where we see it today.
But sitting here today on January 28th, there are still slots available for 2029.
Scott Strazik
Operator, we have time for one more question, please.
operator
This question comes from the line of Andrew Kaplowitz with Citigroup.
Scott Strazik
Morning, Andrew.
Andrew Kaplowitz
Good morning. Thanks for fitting me in. Scott, can you give us more color in your assessment of how your teams are doing on that variable cost productivity that you talk about and what that might mean for the next couple years? Obviously you’ve reiterated those 22% EBITDA margin targets for 28 in power and electrification. Still early days on lean. What are you seeing on the ground as you begin to ramp up capacity? More significantly, can you remind us how your contracts are structured for rising commodity costs?
Andrew Kaplowitz
Well, the commodity cost to a large extent, I would say from when we take orders, Andrew, to a large extent we lock in with the suppliers, the price, so it’s generally matched. The only exception to that is with our long term service contracts and those have material escalators attached with them. So on our $150 billion backlog, we feel very good about our protection for material inflation. Now on our variable cost productivity journey on where we are, it’s a very good and timely question. We’ll have our February operating reviews with our business teams next week and that is the main event or one of our main event.
If I assess where we are right now, I would say with a backlog that’s grown by 50% in the last four years, the team has been making very good progress in our ability to fulfill on that. And that’s when we talk about seeing the gas ramp up in 3Q26. Excuse me. We’ll hit that. Doubling transformers and switch gears 24 to 28. We’ll hit that. Now can we be even more effective with our sourcing leverage here now that we’re at this level of scale and do I have a high degree of expectations that the sourcing productivity will contribute even more to our margin expansion? When we show you that chart that we showed you today on backlog In March, 12 months from now, the answer is yes.
But there’s a maturation process here between investments in the factories for output and fulfillment. Feeling very good. Somewhat countered with how strategically forward thinking our teams are with sourcing savings that I think we’ve got a few miles still to go together. That is good news in the sense that it’s opportunity and opportunity for us to get better and something I look forward to updating everyone on as we go through that journey together in 2026.
Michael Lapides
Before we wrap up, let me turn.
Michael Lapides
It back to Scott for closing comments.
Scott Strazik
Michael thank you everybody. I would just start again with our customers. We are humbled with their confidence in us to drive that $150 billion backlog to the 75,000 employees we have today that I’m proud to represent every day, as is Ken in these meetings. For everybody on the call, we appreciate your continued interest in G.E. vernova and I hope you can hear in our voices both a combination of humility and hunger that we have as we go into a new year that there’s a lot of work to do. We’re ready to do that work and we look forward to interacting with all of you throughout 2026.
Thanks everyone.
Kenneth Parks
Thank you.
operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s conference. Thank you for participating. You may now disconnect.
Kenneth Parks
Sam.
operator
Sa.
Scott Strazik
Sam.
Kenneth Parks
Sa. It.
Scott Strazik
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operator
Good day ladies and gentlemen and welcome to GE Vernova’s fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings conference call. At this time, all participants are in a listen only mode. My name is Liz and I will be your conference coordinator today. If you experience issues with the webcast slides refreshing or there appears to be delays in the slide advancement, please hit F5 on your keyboard to refresh. As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. I’d now like to turn the program over to your host for today’s conference, Michael Lapidis, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please Proceed.
Michael Lapides
Welcome to GE Vernova’s fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. I’m joined today by our CEO Scott Strazik and CFO Ken Parts. Our conference call remarks will include both GAAP and non GAAP financial results. Reconciliations between GAAP and non GAAP measures can be found in today’s press release and presentation slides, both of which are available on our website. Please note that our year over year commentary or variances on orders, revenue adjusted and segment EBITDA and margin discussed during our prepared remarks are on an organic basis unless otherwise specified. In addition, our 2026 guidance and our by 2028 outlook being presented today include the prolect GE acquisition.
We will make forward looking statements about our performance. These statements are based on how we see things today. While we may elect to update these forward looking statements at some point in the future, we do not undertake any obligation to do so as described in our SEC filings. Actual results may differ materially due to risks and uncertainties. With that, I’ll hand it over to.
Scott Strazik
Scott Thanks Michael Good morning everyone and welcome to our fourth quarter earnings call. We have been busy since our December 9th investor update and I thought I’d start with progress since the event. First, on the positive, we continue to see very strong new gas contracts with an incremental 6 gigawatt signed in the last three weeks of December for a total of 24 gigawatts of new contracts in 4Q25 alone. We also ended the year with strong orders in both electrification and wind. Electrification had its largest order quarter in its history and wind had its largest order quarter of 25.
On the negative, we have been impacted by the US government’s halting of all offshore wind activity on December 22, which led to us booking an incremental accrual in 4Q for costs associated with the delay on the Vineyard Wind project. Ken will talk more about this in his section. I’m pleased that our prolect GE acquisition has received rapid approval from all required jurisdictions. This will allow us to close the acquisition on Monday, February 2nd. Taking all this into consideration, we are raising our full year 26 financial guidance which now includes GE Vernova’s full ownership and operation of Prolecc for 11 months in 26 taken in totality the last three weeks of December since our last update were a reasonable proxy for our 25 performance in total strong growth in our largest most profitable businesses with momentum, continuing challenges and wind that we are continuing to combat with accretive capital allocation with the approvals required to close our first sizable acquisition as a standalone public company, 25 sets us up for substantially more profitable growth moving forward.
In 25 we increased our total backlog by over 25% or $31 billion to $150 billion with robust profitable order growth in power and electrification further underscoring our momentum. As we kick off 26 in power, we continue to see accelerating demand and favorable pricing trends for both equipment and services as customers invest in new units and existing assets. In 4Q gas, power equipment backlog and slot reservations increased from 62 to to 83 gigawatts sequentially primarily due to strong US demand, but also with agreements in the Middle East, Vietnam and Taiwan. With backlog increasing from 33 to 40 gigawatts and SRAs increasing from 29 to 43 gigawatts.
We expect to reach approximately 100 gigawatts under contract in 26 under the assumption we’ll ship high teens and gigawatts this year with new contracts north of 30 gigawatts in 4Q we grew our power services backlog to $70 billion, up $5 billion sequentially and 9 billion year over year. This increase was mainly driven by strength in gas with customers investing in fleets and signing new long term service agreements at favorable pricing which drove strong high margin services backlog growth in electrification customers are working to keep pace with growing electricity demand, grid stability needs and national security interests.
In 4Q, we grew the segment’s total backlog to $35 billion, up 4 billion sequentially and 11 billion year over year, representing electrification’s largest growth quarter on a dollar basis in 25. Importantly, we are seeing demand across the segment for grid and data center equipment, both with traditional customers globally and hyperscalers Primarily in the U.S. of note, over 2 billion of electrifications orders were signed directly for data centers in 25, more than triple the 24 total. We also signed large deals for providing grid resilience and reliability solutions in Saudi Arabia and Australia, an HVDC contract in Germany and a large grid equipment contract in Iraq.
In the year in wind we received approximately 3 billion of orders in 4Q, the largest of the year for the segment. In onshore, we continue to receive techselects for repowering and new units as customers utilize safe harbor and initiate physical work. For approximately 10 gigawatts of repowering opportunities in the U.S. the team is focused on what we can control. Taken together, our pathway to substantially more profitable growth is right in front of us. I’ll talk about this more on page five. With the growth of margin in our equipment backlog, including $8 billion of incremental margin added to our equipment backlog in 25.
I’m also pleased with the returns that our 25 investments are yielding. On the CAPEX side, we remain on track to see a substantial step up in gas turbine output. In 3Q26 we installed over 200 new machines in our factories while adding nearly 1000 new production workers. In 25 we plan on adding an incremental 200 machines and over 500 production workers in 26. Electrification is on track with its growth delivering more than 25% revenue growth in 25 with a clear pathway to deliver 13.5 to $14 billion in revenue representing 20% organic growth plus approximately 3 billion from Prolact GE in 2016.
Our investments in automation robotics are advancing at scale and AI is starting to gain momentum in our engineering organizations and back office functions. Our advanced research center is progressing future businesses for us. This includes direct air capture where we already have a facility up and running real momentum in our Solid state Transformer program and a good technical progress, our Fuel Cell program in Malta, New York. We are making all of these investments from a position of financial strength, ending the year with almost $9 billion in cash. In 25 we were able to return 3.6 billion to our shareholders while repurchasing more than 8 million of our shares.
We continue to see substantial opportunity to create value, including through incremental investments with strong returns. A few more comments on our financial performance on page four we booked $59 billion of orders up 34% year over year. We also grew our revenue by 9% year over year to 38 billion with growth in both equipment and services, while increasing our adjusted EBITDA margin by 210 basis points year over year. We generated $3.7 billion in free cash flow, more than double our prior year, while investing more than 2 billion in R&D and CapEx. We are increasing our 26 guidance and by 28 outlook, which now includes prolect GE.
Ken will speak to this more in a moment and as announced, we are doubling our dividend in 26 versus 25 and have increased our stock buyback authorization to $10 billion from the previously approved $6 billion program. One of the primary drivers of our conviction on our path forward is the significant growth and margin expansion in our equipment backlog again in 25, which I will touch on in the next page. On page five we show the growth of margin in our equipment backlog consistent with our practice from last January. We started 25 with the expectation to increase our margin dollars and equipment backlog above our run rate in the prior two years.
We achieved that expectation, adding $8 billion in equipment backlog margin dollars in 25 more than the prior two years combined. We ended 25 with $64 billion in equipment backlog, an increase of approximately 50% year over year with an incremental 6 points in equipment margin expansion. This included 11 points of growth in power, mainly driven by our gas power business. We expect significant growth again in power and electrification’s backlog in 26 at better margins as we convert higher priced gas slot reservation agreements into orders and benefit from strong demand and pricing for grid equipment. These businesses longer equipment cycles mean that we will not begin delivering on the majority of the higher margin orders placed in 24 and 25 until 27 and beyond.
In wind, we expect relatively stable margins this year and for backlog to decrease as we execute on the remaining unprofitable offshore wind backlog and project a smaller onshore wind backlog Given the recent softness in US Orders, as we noted in December, we see incremental opportunity for the teams to expand margins that are not projected in our backlog today. This includes our operating teams delivering our backlog with variable cost productivity versus known cost today, accelerating capacity additions.