General Mills, Inc. (NYSE: GIS) Q3 2026 Earnings Call dated Mar. 18, 2026
Corporate Participants:
Jeff Siemon — Vice President, Investor Relations
Jeffrey Harmening — Chairman of the Board and CEO
Dana McNabb — Group President, North America Retail and North America Pet
Kofi Bruce — Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Andrew Lazar — Analyst
Leah Jordan — Analyst
David Palmer — Analyst
Michael Lavery — Analyst
Alexia Howard — Analyst
Robert Moskow — Analyst
Scott Marks — Analyst
Peter Galbo — Analyst
Presentation:
Operator
Good morning, and welcome to General Mills’ Third Quarter Fiscal 2026 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to turn the call over to Jeff Siemon, Vice President of Investor Relations and Corporate Finance. Thank you. Please go ahead.
Jeff Siemon — Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you, Julian, and hello, everyone. Thank you for joining us today for a live Q&A session on our third quarter fiscal ’26 results. I hope everyone had time to review our press release, listen to the prepared remarks and view our presentation materials, which we made available this morning on our Investor Relations website. It’s important to note that in our Q&A session, we may make forward-looking statements that are based on management’s current views and assumptions. Please refer to this morning’s press release for factors that could impact forward-looking statements and for reconciliations of non-GAAP information, which may be discussed on today’s call.
I’m here with Jeff Harmening, our Chairman and CEO; Kofi Bruce, our CFO; and Dana McNabb, Group President of North America Retail and North America Pet.
And before we get to Q&A, I’ll turn it over to Jeff for some opening remarks.
Jeffrey Harmening — Chairman of the Board and CEO
Thanks, Jeff, and good morning, everybody. We’ll turn to Q&A here in a couple of minutes, but I thought I’d just take a minute or two minutes to provide some context on what we’ve been through the first three quarters of this year. And then based on the progress we’ve been able to demonstrate, how we’re positioned to deliver a significant step-up in financial performance, which will start in our fourth quarter, which is why we reaffirmed our guidance for fiscal ’26. As a reminder, as we entered this fiscal year, we made a proactive and strategic decision to reinvest to improve the remarkability of our brands with full awareness that this would weigh our near-term results as we sharpened our competitiveness.
So now three quarters into that plan, we’re seeing strength and momentum on critical building blocks for sustainable growth, namely household penetration, improved baseline volume, distribution and market shares. And this progress only reinforces our conviction that this strategy is the right one for General Mills. In North America Retail, our investments and remarkability are resonating with consumers. We’re rebuilding household penetration and baseline growth, which are the key indicators of future growth. In Pet, we’re adding households as well and fueling our fast-growing cat feeding portfolio and also taking steps to accelerate our growth through Love Made Fresh. And we’re continuing to be competitive in North America Foodservice and International. We know there’s still more work ahead. We know that. But with most of reinvestment phase behind us, we expect to deliver meaningful better top line and bottom line performance in Q4 and beyond.
I also want to talk briefly about the other piece of news you may have seen yesterday, which was our agreement to sell our Brazil business. And this builds on a strong track record we have of portfolio shaping, both in acquisitions and divestitures, nearly a third of our portfolio once this is complete over the last number of years. And Brazil includes our Yoki and Kitano brands. And while it’s not on the scale of Pet or the yogurt transactions, it’s the same disciplined approach we’ve consistently taken to reshape our portfolio, and namely, our desire to prioritize our resources and investments on brands and platforms where we have the strongest opportunity to generate profitable growth. This deal will enhance our margins and increases the International segments focus on our key global platforms, including super-premium ice cream, Mexican foods, snack bars and pet food, where we have stronger margin and excellent growth prospects.
So with this transaction, as I said, we’ve turned over nearly a third of our net sales since fiscal 2028 [Phonetic]. As we look to fiscal ’27 as well, as we said in our press release, our number one goal is going to be to continue to improve our organic sales results, while at the same time, maintaining our industry-leading HMM as well as the transformation initiatives we have to make sure we’re maintaining efficiency. In 2026, we’re really pleased with the pound share competitiveness we’ve had in NAR as well as dollar share in the other segments. As we look at fiscal ’27, we’ll aim to improve our dollar share performance in NAR really as we’ve lapped a lot of these price investments and the rest of our markability framework elements take hold. So with that, we’re confident in the strategy we have and we know we’re making progress. We will continue to do that in Q4 and into fiscal ’27.
And with that, let’s open it up for Q&A.
Questions and Answers:
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our first question comes from Andrew Lazar from Barclays. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Andrew Lazar
Great. Thanks so much for the question. Good morning, everybody.
Jeffrey Harmening
Good morning.
Andrew Lazar
So Jeff — yeah. Maybe Jeff, by the end of this fiscal year, General Mills will have the bulk of the pricing investments behind it, along with a lot of the remarkability work. You mentioned in your prepared remarks your expectation for more stable pricing next year as you lap the pricing. So I guess the key metric will be right, can General Mills return to some level of volume growth in fiscal ’27 even in the context of category growth that remains for now anyway below the longer-term level. I was hoping really for whatever you can share on expectations along these lines at this point, knowing you’re not obviously going to get into like specific ’27 guidance yet.
Jeffrey Harmening
Yeah. I mean, Andrew, you’re on the right track in terms of our thinking. What I would say is that we look at fiscal ’27, our goal really is going to be to increase our competitiveness in NAR in dollar terms. And this year, we certainly did in pound terms as a result of all the pricing actions to be more competitive there. And then ’27, we’ll try to maintain the pound as well as we can. And at the same time, let our innovation and the renovation on our core and our improved marketing and ROIs on our marketing campaigns do the job of increasing our dollar sales results.
And so the — what we feel good about is that we’ve got the building blocks in place. And look, we’ve taken a step-up on new product innovation and renovation this year from where we were before. I would look for us to take another step forward as we look at next year, both on innovation and renovation, particularly in NAR and in Pet. And so that will be our goal. It’s a very volatile world. So what exactly that yields, we’ll talk about in June. We talked about at CAGNY, our category is growing about 1%. But as I said, it’s volatile, we’ll come back with a revised view of what we think our categories will grow. But I can tell you definitively that our goal will be to increase our dollar share competitiveness across NAR as we have done in the other three segments.
Andrew Lazar
Got it. Okay. Thanks for that. And then price mix, obviously, in your categories, I think, has continued to be positive despite some of your price investments. I guess what are you seeing competitively in your key categories sort of along these lines following your own price investments? Thanks so much.
Dana McNabb
Good morning, Andrew. Thanks for the question. What I would say from a price mix standpoint is we have seen price mix in our categories up a little bit. That is behind some small brand innovation. But predominantly in terms of our price mix this year, as you know, in the front half, it was about investing to get our base shelf prices right. It was not about promotion activity, adding frequency or depth. It was about getting below key clips and gap to the competition getting that right, which is why our price mix is down.
As we start to lap that, we lap it a little bit in the back half of this fiscal year, but really the full lapping will occur in the beginning of next fiscal year. We’re starting, and we expect to see that price gap close, starting first with our Pillsbury business, then cereal and then we’ll start to see some of our fruit snacks come along. And we do expect to get back to price mix growth in fiscal ’27.
Andrew Lazar
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Leah Jordan from Goldman Sachs. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Leah Jordan
Hi. Thank you. Good morning. Just kind of building on some of that. You called out the step-up in innovation this year. Just can you talk about how that’s been resonating so far? How is the growth tracking for new products versus the 25% goal that you had stated previously? And as we look ahead, I know you called out strong seasonal events for 4Q. What should we be looking for? Any early commentary on ’27 as well? Thank you.
Jeffrey Harmening
Overall, I would say we’re really pleased with our innovation, and we’re tracking at about 25%, maybe a little higher in North America Retail and between 20% and 25% for the portfolio in aggregate. And I’m really pleased with what we’ve seen out of NAR. So maybe I’ll have Dana, to kind of give a little bit of color on kind of what’s resonating.
Dana McNabb
Yeah. From a NAR perspective, I think we’ll land a little bit higher than the 25% growth from new products. We have really leaned into mainstream premium benefits such as protein and fiber, better tasting, news on some of our snacks items and that is resonating really well. I’ll use Cheerios Protein as an example, the biggest brand getting a protein benefit. That’s going to be $100 million by the end of this year, some of the taste renovation that we’ve done in our salty snacks and our fruit snacks that is resonating incredibly well. And then, of course, big businesses like Pillsbury and grain where we’ve been able to bring great tasting, bigger news or protein news, it’s resonating really well. So we’re getting really good trial and repeat on our new products this year, which, of course, is encouraging for next year because it means year two on those items will be helpful to us next year.
And then I think the plans next year are even better. We’re going to see another step change in new products, again, better-for-you, functional nutrition. We’re bringing protein to the number one cereal, Honey Nut Cheerios. Our Ghost Protein Bars, which we’ve just started to launch are turning very well. We’re going to scale that nationally. We make fiber taste great. So we’ve got Annie’s fruit snacks coming with fiber, LARABAR Protein and Fiber, Ratio Granola and Fiber and Protein. And then as I look to some of the bold flavors we’re launching, we are launching a new authentic Mexican brand called La Tiara. We’ve got Hot Honey coming on Pillsbury biscuits. We’ve got Tabasco Old El Paso Kits and protein shells and Chimichanga Kits. So you name it.
We have got really good innovation coming that’s starting to ship this quarter, and we will support that with double-digit media investment, seasonal events, and really good in-store and online execution. And I feel confident that now that we’ve got the shelf prices right, and we’ve got pounds somewhat stabilized, when we lean into the rest of the remarkable experience framework, we’ll be able to improve our performance next year.
Leah Jordan
Okay. Great. Thank you. And then just a follow-up on Love Made Fresh. You called out an acceleration in recent weeks after some of the changes that you planned to make that you highlighted previously at CAGNY. Just any more color on the detail of the magnitude of that acceleration, how we should think about further distribution growth from here? And then also an update on how your on-shelf availability is tracking? I know that’s been an area of focus for you guys.
Dana McNabb
Yes. Thank you for the question. I think I’ll just reiterate that we are pleased with where we see the Love Made Fresh launch so far. We’ve made really good progress in a lot of areas. We like our execution. We’re above the 5,000 mark on coolers right now. We think our marketing execution has been strong, and we are getting great product reviews from retailers and from consumers. As we pointed out, the place that we needed to focus was strengthening our turns at shelf. And so the number one place was you mentioned our on-shelf availability.
And what we realized is we needed to have our store reps go to the stores every week actually to make sure that the coolers were full. And we’ve had that happen now for about three weeks. And we have seen a step-up in turns in those stores. But again, it’s only three weeks. So I wouldn’t want to lean into any specific number there, but we have seen a step-up. The other two items that I think are going to be really important to improving our turns are we didn’t have a standup resealable pack.
And that pouch format is 55% of fresh sales. That is launching now, and we have that coming into the marketplace. And that’s two times the dollar ring of rolls [Phonetic]. So that’s going to really help us from a turn standpoint. And then from building awareness, we’re really pleased with how we’ve built broad awareness, but we got to come down a little bit more in the marketing funnel and reach consumers and Pet parents, tell them where we can find the product and do more to convert to trial. So where we’re at the next month is we are definitely going to be adding more coolers. We’re going to make sure our shelf availability in those coolers is better with reps visiting the store once a week, and we’re confident that we will see our turns improve.
Leah Jordan
Very helpful. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from David Palmer from Evercore ISI. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
David Palmer
Thank you. I wanted to ask you about just the results you’re getting from not just the remarkability framework, but just the levels of spending, the kinds of spending that you’re making and maybe juxtapose it to what you did pre-COVID, a lot of — 5% of sales and innovation is the activity, the rate that you had pre-COVID and you’ve kind of gotten back there. Promotion spending has been restored and you’re investing — leaning in on marketing as well. So I’m just wondering in that immediate pre-COVID period, you stabilized your organic sales. I’m wondering what is different today versus then? Just in terms of the responses you’re getting from each of these sort of growth spending activities, And I have a quick follow-up.
Jeffrey Harmening
Yeah, I would say the — David, what’s been different in the last three quarters is that we’ve been investing a lot more in our base pricing, as Dana talked about, to maintain our competitiveness and improve our competitiveness. And you’re right, the level of new product innovation we have is approaching pre-COVID levels which we feel good about. Our marketing is approaching pre-COVID level which we feel good about. And now kind of our price gaps relative to competition will be approaching pre-COVID levels, which it hasn’t been for the last couple of years, so which is why we made this change in pricing. And so it’s also why it gives us confidence as we look forward to Q4 and next year that our level of competitiveness in terms of dollars will improve because, as you said, we’re getting back to the level of activity, whether it’s on the marketing side and innovation and media spending or whether it’s our price competitiveness that we saw before.
I would actually say Dana and her team have done a great job. Our level of renovation on our core is actually probably better than it was pre-COVID. And so that’s what gives us confidence that having gotten past the bulk of this pricing activity now on base price that the rest of the elements of our marketing framework will work a lot harder for us. So you’ve kind of hit on our thinking, which is that’s what we see. The only other difference I would say externally is the consumer is a little bit more stressed than they were in 2019. And so that’s why we see our level of promotion activity up a little bit higher.
Even if the depth isn’t higher, even if the frequency isn’t higher, consumers are taking a little bit more — are taking a little bit more away on promotion, which is why you see only a little bit of price mix in our categories. That’s probably the one thing that hasn’t bounced back all the way yet. But I don’t think that’s a structural thing, that is clearly cyclical. And as the economy improves, we would anticipate the consumers would improve with it.
David Palmer
That’s very helpful. Just one quick question, maybe this one is for Kofi. Just in terms of the gross margin, this quarter, it was relatively low, maybe lower than what we typically see in fiscal 3Q versus your overall fiscal year. And I’m just — I’m wondering where you think — if you can have a stable organic sales in fiscal ’27, where do you think gross margins can live for this Company? And I’m really wondering about maybe something in the low 30s versus the mid-30s, the Street is near 34% for fiscal ’27. And then just wondering if you do have a stable organic sales, can you get back to mid-30s in terms of gross margins? Thank you.
Kofi Bruce
Yeah, David, thanks for the question. I think you’re starting with the kind of the right frame as we see it. We do see stable to growing volume as an enabler for returning and restoring our margins. We’re not ready yet to maybe go on record on where we expect them to be for ’27. But I think the path to improvement is certainly paved and aided by volume stability. What we find is when we have that, leverage improves, obviously, across the enterprise. We get more leverage out of our HMM cost savings, which is always a significant contributor to stability and margin expansion in the middle of the P&L as well supporting reinvestment in the business. As a reminder, we are in the middle of a multiyear transformation initiative, which I would expect next year on top of this year will add meaningfully to productivity.
And as Jeff referenced, we would expect to see improvement in price mix and be able to leverage more of the full suite of our SRM levers as we step into next year. So I think the combination of all those things will help us start moving back. In terms of where we’d like to be for ’27, I’ll go on record as we get out of Q4 and into the first quarter of next year.
David Palmer
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Michael Lavery
Thank you. Good morning. Just maybe following up on that and drilling in a little bit more to the inflation piece of it. You cited some inflation pressure this quarter already. Maybe for looking ahead, can you give a sense of what you see for fiscal ’27, maybe both with and without potentially elevated oil or diesel or oil derivative costs and just an early sense of kind of how it’s shaping up? And I know you’ve got the HMM savings, you’ve given some color on, but how hard does that have to work to offset some of the inflation you might be looking at?
Kofi Bruce
Yeah. No, appreciate the question, and obviously, I’m not prepared to give you sort of the full suite of our assumptions for ’27 yet. But our best estimate right now on range of inflation is roughly in line with this year, inclusive of maybe on margin at the far end of the range, some more modest pressure from for the macro basket. Labor probably still remains one of the biggest inflationary components of our cost structure, just as we think about it, either embedded cost or whether it’s in logistics or manufacturing or pass-through even in our transformed commodities. So I’d share that as a reminder. I think the other critical tent poles are we would expect another year of industry-leading HMM at at least 4%.
And then as I referenced in my last answer, some significant contributions on top of this year’s significant contributions from our transformation initiatives to help round out the picture. I think it’s important, before I leave this point on ’27, just to make sure that I give you maybe some of the other sides of the ledger. There will be obviously lapping the 53rd week, which is a tailwind this year, will turn into a headwind next year. We’ve got one month of U.S. yogurt results reflected in this year’s results. And as a reminder, that closed at the end of June. And so we’ll expect to see that as some headwind and then incentive comp, we would expect to normalize next year. So those are kind of three things on the other side of the ledger as we look at the next year’s tent pole assumptions.
Michael Lavery
Okay. That’s really helpful. And just as you look at finishing fiscal ’26, early in the year, you had indicated you’d expect positive organic revenue growth in fiscal 4Q. Now the language is just improved trends. Could you maybe be specific if positive organic revenue growth is off the table? Or is that still something that you think is in reach? And if so, would that be total Company, for NAR, maybe both? Or what’s the right way to think about how the rest of the year unfolds?
Kofi Bruce
Sure. Sure. So you take — if you kind of track from the midpoint of our guidance, implied in the annual guidance is probably about 75 basis points, 80 basis points at the midpoint of organic sales growth. We’re not — while we’re expecting continued competitiveness so pound share, NAR, dollar share in the rest of our business to hold. We’re not banking in this guidance on a dramatic turn in market performance in Q4. Instead, we’re expecting a lot of this come from some mechanical factors. So we referenced in our remarks, significant retailer inventory headwind in Q3 that we would expect to flip to a tailwind in Q4. And that’s on its own probably worth about 200 basis points of benefit to organic growth in Q4. And we’d expect the rest of the improvement to come from the reversal of trade expense timing, which was a headwind in Q3 and will become a pretty healthy tailwind as we lap last year’s Q4.
Michael Lavery
Okay, great. Thanks so much.
Kofi Bruce
You bet.
Operator
Our next question comes from Alexia Howard from AllianceBernstein. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Alexia Howard
Good morning, everyone. Can I ask about the Foodservice weakness this time around. You mentioned bakery flour volumes. Is that something that’s likely to persist? And what does it tell us about some of those category or channel dynamics in that segment?
Jeffrey Harmening
Yeah, I think for — Alexia, for Foodservice overall, let me take a step back and then we’ll get the to flour here eventually. The — as we think about Foodservice, the eating occasions at home are about 86%, and that’s been pretty stable over the last few months or so. Commercial traffic is down about half a point and noncommercial traffic is up about a point. As a reminder, we over-index in the noncommercial space. And as we look at the third quarter, you see our volume decline a little bit and you see the profitability decline.
I would remind you on the profit side, about half of the decline is the yogurt divestiture. So when you see that big number for that decline, know that about half of it is yogurt and about another — about 30%, 35% is flour. So those are the two biggest items. As I think about the fourth quarter, we’re not thinking that our flour business will come back in the fourth quarter of this year. We’ll see what happens because of the complex nature of distribution and Foodservice, the movement is a little bit slower one way or the other. I am really proud of our competitiveness in K-12 schools. The fact that we’ve changed to natural colors ahead of when we said we were going to do and we’re competing quite effectively outside of flour. And so outside of that one piece of our Foodservice business, pretty pleased with our performance and our level of competitiveness. And this forecast we have for the rest of this year wouldn’t contemplate becoming more competitive on flour for the next three months.
Alexia Howard
Got it. And then can I follow up on Love Made Fresh? You obviously had the 5,000 cooler goal for the end of January, which I think you hit and it’s probably a little bit above that now. Is there another milestone a few months down the road in terms of additional distribution that you can share? Or at the moment is the focus on getting the turns up before you have another big move forward on the distribution side?
Jeffrey Harmening
Yeah. On the — Alexia, on the distribution side, I think there are the number of coolers and then there are kind of the distribution within those coolers. To the extent we just launched a stand-up resealable pouch, that will add distribution, but it may not add the number of stores. It will just add the number of SKUs we have in the store we’re currently in. And we think that’s going to be the most productive. So our focus really is on enhancing the turns where we are. And to the extent we get a little more distribution, that’s okay, too. But as Dana talked about, making sure that availability has increased significantly and that our marketing is taking place at the kind of the lower end of the funnel, closer to the point of purchase, that’s going to be our focus.
We know we have a great product. And now we have good distribution. And so now the job to do is make sure we keep improving the turns where we are. As Dana said, three weeks in to having more people at the shelf more often, we’re seeing positive benefits to that. And we’ll look to see that continue as well as redoing our marketing mix so that we have more kind of at the point of attack, if you will.
Alexia Howard
Great. Thank you very much. I’ll pass it on.
Operator
Our next question comes from Robert Moskow from TD Cowen. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Robert Moskow
Hi, thanks for the question. Dana and Jeff, I was hoping to dive into the high single-digit decline in snacks. The Salty Snacks segment of the market has become much more competitive with price cuts and innovation. And I wanted to know if some of that’s just adjacent to you, but do you think that’s carving into your brands at all? And what gets us back to growth in that segment?
Dana McNabb
Thanks for the question, Rob. Good morning. I think starting first with salty. We in the categories we compete in are not seeing the same trends as some of the other salty competitors. One of the things that we’re seeing in salty actually is that this is a business where we’ve had three consecutive quarters of pound and dollar share growth. We’re seeing consumers respond to our price investments. We’ve had really good price pack architecture. And then those — the product renovation that we did to just improve the flavor, that’s resonating really well.
So our salty business has performed incredibly well, and we think that will continue into next year. The challenge that we have seen is really on our Hot Snacks business. That has what’s driven the deceleration that you’re seeing in snacks. And as I’ve talked about before, on Hot Snacks, one of the main drivers of that with Totino’s is that we did a price pack architecture conversion. We changed a bag to a box. And in today’s economic times, when the consumers are stressed, they just didn’t see any value in that box, and we thought sales declined significantly. And so we’re in process of converting that back now. The retailers have been really supportive.
We think we’ve got the price rate and we’ve really got to up the product quality and how we’re talking about the product to consumers, which you’ll see go into marketplace this year. And so that’s our main focus for snacks going forward. On our grain snacks and our fruit snacks, it is about making sure we taste great and we have enough better-for-you innovation with protein and fiber, which we really do, and we’re leaning into the Annie’s business in our snacking categories, which we also think will work incredibly well for us.
Robert Moskow
So ex Totino’s, is snacks stable? Or how — or can you tease it out for us?
Dana McNabb
Ex Totinos, snacks overall for us would still be down slightly. That is driven by our grain business. Our Nature Valley business is performing pretty well. We’ve got — our protein is doing really well. Our wafers business doing really well. And actually, Fiber One is on the come back with GLP-1 users, but it’s still down. So what we see in grain is that consumers are moving towards more performance nutrition. And so that’s why you’ve really seen us ramp up this Ghost Bar innovation that, again, is performing really well, high protein, low sugar. We’re going to scale that nationally right now. We’ll continue to lean into everything that’s working well on Nature Valley, and we will double down with GLP-1 users on our Fiber One and Protein One business.
Jeffrey Harmening
Yeah. As Dana said, the biggest challenge really is Totino’s a little bit in bars as well. Bars is about innovation. We think we have a good story there. Unlike what you might have heard from others on salty snacks, our salty snacks business was up double digits in the third quarter. And I’m really pleased with Dana and her team, what they’ve done in salty snacks, I mean, really good price pack architecture. Chex Mix is flying and our fruit retail sales are flat. And so as you decomp the whole thing, we’re really strong in salty snacks and holding our own in fruit, and the job to do really is primarily on Totino’s with a little bit of — with a little bit in bars as well.
Robert Moskow
Got it. Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Scott Marks from Jefferies. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Scott Marks
Hey, good morning, all. Thank you very much for taking our questions. First thing I wanted to ask about is some of the inventory — the retailer inventory adjustments that you called out. Could you just help us understand a little bit what parts of the NAR and Pet business were impacted? And then how we should be thinking about the reversal in each of those segments for fiscal Q4?
Dana McNabb
Yeah. Thank you for the question. We definitely have seen some quarter-to-quarter fluctuations as it relates to retailer inventories. I would say from a NAR perspective, we typically see our net sales and our retail sales track — trends track relatively consistently. They were a little bit off in Q3, and we think that will revert back in Q4. It’s Pet where we see the more significant gap. That’s about three points. And as we look to Q4, our current guidance does not really contemplate a headwind or a tailwind from Pet in Q4. Historically, it has been really important for us to predict shipment timing and retailer inventory impact. So we just think that the best planning assumption is to assume that it’s going to be neutral in Q4.
Scott Marks
Understood. Thanks for that. And then I just wanted to ask a little bit about the guide. Obviously, holding the guide implies maybe a fairly wide range for Q4. So just wondering if you can help us understand maybe the swing factors that could push results towards one end or the other?
Kofi Bruce
Sure. And certainly, the guide on profit is maybe even appreciably wider than on the top line. But obviously, on the top line, as I referenced earlier, we’re expecting sort of the mechanical factors of the retailer inventory reset, which we expect to be to improve our organic growth rate about 200 basis points over Q3, so about 50 basis points in the quarter, and then our trade expense timing to kind of carry the rest on the top line.
On the bottom line, as Dana just referenced in her remarks, we saw some additional pressure on top of some things that we had already anticipated going in. So specifically, going into the quarter in Q3, we would have expected remarkability investments, divestiture headwinds and trade expense timing comparisons to be a drag, those kind of accounted for two-thirds of the decline in Q3. And then the other remaining factor that was frankly still variable and wide as we came into CAGNY and reset guidance were around the shipment time — the weather-related factors that impacted shipment timing and supply chain disruptions for us, and those added additional pressure to the results and largely account for the width of the range on profit.
So our ability to recover fully from some of the cost overhang from the supply chain disruptions, we are making progress, but maybe at the low end of our guidance, that would maybe not be able to fully recover. And then at the more positive end of our guidance or the more benign end of our guidance, we’d see a more full recovery in those costs as well as obviously, the factors around trade, supply chain, retailer inventory flipping to tailwinds in the quarter. So the last thing I would just leave you with is a reminder that we do expect to see obviously a significant contribution from the 53rd week in Q4 and that’s baked into our guidance as well as the mechanical factor. But really the variability around supply chain and retail inventory recovery would probably account for the width of the range on profit.
Scott Marks
Understood. Thanks very much.
Kofi Bruce
You bet.
Operator
Our next question comes from Peter Galbo from Bank of America. Please go ahead. Your line is open.
Peter Galbo
Hey, guys, good morning. Thanks for taking the questions. Kofi, just back to the question around inflation for next year. I know it’s probably still a little too early to know fully. But a couple of your peers have called out freight as a potential headwind, and I think freight even outside of what’s happened in diesel. So maybe you can just comment on what you’re seeing in terms of driver tightness or anything that might be a potential hiccup on that side?
Kofi Bruce
Yeah. I think broadly, I don’t know that we would call out different factors. We’re tracking those. Obviously, we’re not done with our fiscal year. So we don’t expect those to be material in this year, given we’re largely hitting at our contracted rates. It is a variable that we’re factoring into the range that I gave you earlier in the call on our expected inflation for next year, and we’ll be prepared to give you a more full picture here in, call it, two more months as we close the quarter and the year.
Peter Galbo
Okay. Fair enough. And Jeff, maybe just — I didn’t get a lot of airtime, but the decision on Brazil I don’t think it comes as a huge surprise. So maybe you can just provide a few more details into just the thinking to kind of exit the market and what drove the decision at this time. Thanks.
Jeffrey Harmening
Yeah. It stems from our strategy to really focus on our core global brands outside the U.S. And there we have a great right to win with our core global brands. They are fast growing, and they’re quite profitable. And as we looked at our Brazilian business, our Brazilian team has done a really nice job. But the challenge for us in Brazil is that not only we under scale, but also our portfolio there is not really our global brands. It’s some good local brands.
But the combination of having these local brands as well as not having the scale means that our Brazilian business has not been very profitable for quite some time. And so the idea to divest of our Brazilian business really is a factor of our focusing on our core global brands, which will enable us in our International segment to improve our margin profile, which we’ve done a really nice job of this year, but there’s another step change to go and divesting this business will help us do that and while maintaining our growth and increasing our margin profile. So that’s — in doing that, what we’ll be able to do is shift our resources to place where we have — we think we have a longer-term right to win is going to be more profitable for us.
Peter Galbo
Okay. Thanks very much.
Jeff Siemon
Julian, I think that’s all the time we have this morning. So I think we should wrap there. Thanks, everyone, for the good questions and discussion, and we look forward to speaking with you over the course of the coming quarter.
Operator
[Operator Closing Remarks]