Honeywell International Inc. (NYSE: HON) Q1 2022 earnings call dated Apr. 29, 2022
Corporate Participants:
Sean Meakim — Vice President, Investor Relations
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Greg Lewis — Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Analysts:
Julian Mitchell — Barclays — Analyst
Steve Tusa — J.P. Morgan — Analyst
Jeff Sprague — Vertical Research — Analyst
Scott Davis — Melius Research — Analyst
Nicole DeBlase — Deutsche Bank — Analyst
Andrew Obin — Bank of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst
Sheila Kahyaoglu — Jefferies — Analyst
Josh Pokrzywinski — Morgan Stanley — Analyst
Nigel Coe — Wolfe Research — Analyst
Deane Dray — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst
Andy Kaplowitz — Citigroup — Analyst
Presentation:
Operator
Good day, and thank you for standing by. Welcome to the Honeywell First Quarter 2022 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please be advised that today’s conference is being recorded. [Operator Instructions]
I would now like to hand the conference over to your speaker today, Sean Meakim, Vice President of Investor Relations. Please go ahead.
Sean Meakim — Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you, Shannon. Good morning and welcome to Honeywell’s first quarter 2022 earnings. On the call with me today are Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk; and Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Greg Lewis. Also joining us are, Senior Vice President and General Counsel, Anne Madden and Senior Vice President and Chief Supply Chain Officer, Torsten pills. This call and webcast, including any non-GAAP reconciliations are available on our website at www.honeywell.com/investor. Honeywell also uses our website as a means of disclosing information which may be of interest or material to our investors and for complying with disclosure obligations under Regulation FD. Accordingly, investors should monitor our Investor Relations website in addition to following our press releases, SEC filings, public conference calls, webcasts and social media.
Note that elements of this presentation contain forward-looking statements that are based on our best view of the world and of our businesses as we see them today. Those elements can change based on many factors, including changing economic and business conditions and we ask that you interpret them in that light. We identify the principal risks and uncertainties that may affect our performance in our annual report on Form 10-K and other SEC filings. This morning we will review our financial results for the first quarter of 2022, share our guidance for the second quarter, and provide an update on our full-year 2022 outlook. As always we’ll leave time for your questions at the end.
With that, I’ll turn the call over to our Chairman and CEO, Darius Adamczyk.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you. Sean, and good morning, everyone. Let’s begin on Slide 2. First off our collective thoughts are to millions of Ukrainian refugees and we hope to see a peaceful resolution quickly. Our number one priority continues to be the safety and security of our employees and partners new region and respond to their immediate needs. That said, we delivered a very strong first quarter despite a challenging backdrop, including ongoing supply chain constraints, deflation headwinds, and global unrest. I’m pleased with our disciplined execution as we navigate these dynamics and capitalize on the ongoing recovery in our end markets. We met or exceeded our first-quarter commitments despite these challenges with adjusted earnings per share of $1.91, down 1% year-over-year or $0.01 above the high end of our guidance range.
Organic sales grew by 1% year-over-year and our commercial aviation aftermarket building products, productivity solutions and services, advanced materials and recurring connected software businesses all delivered double-digit organic growth. This was partially offset by cheaper percentage point impact from lower COVID-related masks sales as we lap the height of the demand in 2021. Our strong price realization allowed us to stay ahead of the inflation curve we expanded segment margin by 10 basis points year-over-year, 10 basis points above the high end of our guidance range. Excluding the impact of our investment in Quantinuum, the margin expansion rate would have been 40 basis points year-over-year.
Orders and backlog growth accelerated in the first quarter indicating strong demand momentum despite macro headwinds led by strength in Aero, HBT, and PMT our end markets continue to recover. We’ll go into more details on orders and backlog trends in the next slide, the first quarter is seasonally our lowest from a cash perspective and as we communicated this year that is being exacerbated by the supply chain impact and strong collections in Q4. We generated $50 million of free cash flow in the quarter, these results do not change our full year free cash flow guidance range of $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion, which Greg will discuss later.
We continue to leverage our strong balance sheet deploying $2 billion of total capital in the first quarter, including $1 billion allocated to share repurchases as we began execution of our recently updated commitment to buyback $4 billion in shares in 2022. From an M&A perspective, we closed the acquisition of U.S. digital designs, a public safety communications hardware and software solutions provider. Looking forward, I continue to be encouraged by the strength we are seeing in many areas of our portfolio as we execute our rigorous and proven value creation framework. Our accelerator operating system is driving outstanding shareholder value.
Now let me turn to Slide 3 to discuss our orders and backlog trends. First quarter orders across Honeywell grew 13%, the strongest growth we have since the start of 2021, the exception of second Q ’21 growth, which benefited from 2020 COVID-related lows. Despite ongoing macro challenges of last few years, our book-to-bill ratio has been greater than 1 for the last several quarters, indicating the strength of our demand and commercial success. Long cycle orders grew over 20% in the first quarter led by strength in the overall aerospace portfolio, PMP process solutions projects, and SPS warehouse automation to help facilitate sustained growth through the coming years.
First quarter backlog increased 9% year-over-year to $28.5 billion or up 10% excluding the impact of approximately $300 million of backlog, we moved due to the Russia. Backlog growth has also been accelerating consistently over the last two years as our end markets recover, giving us confidence in increased sales growth as the supply chain environment eases.
Now let’s turn to Slide 4 to discuss some exciting recent announcements. Last month we announced a strategic collaboration of automotors a division of ClearPath robotics that gives warehouse and distribution centers throughout North America an automated option to handle some of the most labor-intensive roles in increasingly scarce job market. The collaboration enables Honeywell customers to increase efficiency, reduce errors, and improved safety by deploying autonomous mobile robots in their facilities. These autonomous mobile robots handle repetitive and often time-consuming tasks allows scarce labor resources to be shifted to higher-value jobs. This helped to boost worker satisfaction, while reducing injuries and turnover rates. The pandemic and its lasting effects of labor shortages is causing companies to reconsider the way they operate and companies are more willing than ever to invest in automation.
We also recently announced that we will supply Hecate Energy, energy storage system for solar park located in Northern New Mexico. When completed in mid-2022, a 50-megawatt solar farm will be capable supplying enough electricity to power up the 16,000 average New Mexico homes, which will help meet the state’s decarbonization goals. When combined with Honeywell’s experienced energy control systems, the energy storage systems will enable customers to accurately forecast and optimize energy costs at the site and will support access to reliable and cost-effective clean energy.
Honeywell remains on the forefront of innovation, it is leading the energy transition. Energy storage will play a critical role in renewable power generation will be vital to the decarbonization of global power systems. Lastly, we are teaming up with World Energy a carbon net zero solution provider and Air Products, the world’s largest hydrogen producer to build one of the most technologically advanced sustainable aviation fuel production and distribution sites ever constructed. The facility will produce fuel that will displace over 76 million metric tonnes of carbon dioxide by 2050, the equivalent of 3.8 million carbon net-zero flights from LA to New York.
World Energy and Honeywell collaborate over the past nine years and this long-term engagement will continue to transform the industry, support the growth of zero-carbon economy and help accelerate the decarbonization of the aviation industry.
These exciting announcements reinforce our message at Investor Day that our innovative culture, our commitment to providing efficient and sustainable solutions to meet the needs of our customers and our new technologies will be integral to the next leg of growth.
Now let me turn over to Greg on Slide 5 to discuss our first quarter results in more detail and to provide an update on our 2022 outlook.
Greg Lewis — Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Thank you, Darius, and good morning, everyone. As Darius highlighted, we met or exceeded our financial commitments despite a very challenging backdrop. First-quarter sales grew by 1% organically as supply chain constraints, predominantly in Aero, HBT and SPS continue to hold that volume growth and caused our past-due backlog to increase by approximately $500 million in the quarter. Our strong pricing was a highlight in the face of high inflation. Similar to the fourth quarter, 1Q also had difficult year-over-year comps with lower COVID-related mass demand impacting growth by 2 percentage points and the timing of sales and warehouse automation dampening our growth rate.
Turning to the segments, aerospace sales for the first quarter were up 5% organically compared to the first quarter of 2021 despite continued supply constraints. As the ongoing flight hour recovery led to more than 25% year-over-year sales growth in both air transport aftermarket and business in general aviation aftermarket. Commercial original equipment grew double-digits in the first quarter as air transport original equipment returned to growth that was partially offset by lower business in general aviation original equipment volumes. Growth from commercial aerospace was partially offset by defense and space sales that were down 14% in the quarter. Aerospace segment margins contracted as expected in the first quarter to 27% due to higher sales of lower margin original equipment products, the impact of inflation, and the absence of a one-time gain in 2021, partially offset by our pricing actions.
Turning to Building Technologies, where sales were up 8% organically, led by favorable pricing across the building products portfolio, partially offset by lower volume in building projects. Orders were up double digits in the first quarter as a result of strong demand for fire products and building management systems. Backlog growth continued in building solutions projects and services, giving us confidence for the remainder of 2022. In addition, our Healthy Buildings portfolio maintained its momentum with orders over $100 million in the first quarter, segment margins expanded 100 basis points to 23.5% through due to our pricing actions and our favorable sales mix, partially offset by cost inflation.
In Performance Materials and Technologies, sales grew 6% organically in the quarter despite an approximately 1% headwind from Russia sales growth was led by advanced materials where the business experienced double-digit growth despite lower automotive refrigerant volumes due to supply constraints affecting automotive OE production. Process solutions sales growth was led by thermal solutions and lifecycle solutions and services. Sparta Systems grew approximately 20% and turning operating profit in the quarter earlier than expected in our acquisition model. UOP sales were down in the quarter due to lower process technology equipment volumes, although sustainable technology solutions continue to excel, growing over 75% organically year-over-year.
Orders increased double digits year-over-year headlined by over 20% growth in process solutions. Segment margins expanded 230 basis points in the quarter to 20.8%, driven by favorable pricing and sales mix, partially offset by cost inflation.
In Safety and Productivity Solutions sales decreased 15% organically in the quarter. Remember that the first quarter of 2021 was near the height of our COVID-driven mask demand, creating a 9% year-over-year comparison headwind in the quarter. Productivity solutions and services, advanced sensing technologies, and our gas detection businesses all grew at double-digit rates in the quarter despite the supply-constrained environment highlighting the strength in much of the underlying SPS portfolio. As we expected, the timing of Intelligrated sales is shaping up to be a mirror image of 2021 with sales down in the first quarter and we expect growth in the back half of the year.
Segment margins expanded 20 basis points to 14.5% led by favorable pricing and sales mix, partially offset by lower volume leverage and cost inflation. Honeywell connected enterprise continues to underpin the growth we are seeing across the portfolio. In the first quarter recurring revenue grew over 15% with SaaS growth of over 50% led by the Sparta business. We also saw double-digit growth in our connected building, cyber and connected industrial solutions.
So for overall, Honeywell our execution allowed us to deliver 10 basis points of segment margin improvement, 10 basis points above the high end of our guide with margin expansion in PMT, HBT, and SPS ending the quarter at 21.1%. And keep in mind this expansion is net of a 30 basis point year-over-year headwind associated with our investment in Quantinuum. On EPS, we delivered first-quarter GAAP earnings per share of $1.64 and adjusted earnings per share of $1.91, which was down $0.01 year-over-year a bridge for adjusted earnings per share from 1Q ’21 to 1Q ’22 can be found in the appendix of this presentation.
Segment profit was a $0.01 headwind driven primarily by lower volume and supply chain constraints, partially offset by strong price realization. A lower effective tax rate, 22% this year versus 22.3% last year drove a $0.01 tailwind. Share count reduction drove a $0.04 year-over-year tailwind to earnings per share. We saw $0.05 headwind from below the line items, primarily due to lower pension income and increased repositioning. In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we suspended substantially all our sales, distribution, and service activities in Russia and as a result, we recorded a charge of $183 million or $0.27 impact to our GAAP EPS.
Moving to cash, we generated $50 million of free cash flow in the quarter, which is closely aligned to our expectations. This decrease was driven by higher working capital, including lower payables and higher receivables from strong 4Q collections in addition to higher inventory as we continue to work through the constrained supply chain environment. Higher cash taxes due to the impact of tax legislation and R&D capitalization were also a free cash flow headwind in the quarter, consistent with our full-year guidance.
Finally as Darius mentioned earlier, we continue to leverage our strong balance sheet, deploying $2 billion towards high return opportunities for our shareholders. Notably, we repurchased 5.5 million shares for $1 billion in the first quarter as we executed on our update commitment to buyback $4 billion in shares in 2022. We also paid approximately $670 million in dividends, spent approximately $180 million in capital expenditures, and invested approximately $180 million in M&A, as we close the acquisition of U.S. Digital Designs. So overall we executed better than expected managing through a very difficult first quarter and accelerated our capital deployment as promised.
Now let’s turn to slide 6 to talk about our second quarter and full-year guidance. Signs of the recovery continues to unfold in our key markets underpinned by strong orders growth across many of our businesses as Darius highlighted in his opening. While uncertainties and persistent challenges remain in the macroeconomic backdrop, our rigorous operating principles have enabled us to demonstrate our agility and resiliency positioning us well for the recovery ahead. Our end market setup continues to be strong with ongoing improvement in global flight hours, return to public spaces, and elevated oil prices. Global energy production continues to transition to a low carbon future and Honeywell will lead that evolution with our strategically differentiated and sustainable technologies.
We expect supply chain impacts to remain as challenging in the second quarter as they were in the first quarter, but they start to abate as capacity for electronic components comes online in 3Q. We’re confident in the eventual return to normalcy in the aerospace supply chain. However, the timing remains difficult to call. Inflation will continue to be a significant headwind. However, our strategic pricing actions will continue to dampen impacts to margin throughout the year.
In response to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, we suspended substantially all our sales, distribution, and service activities in Russia, representing approximately 1% of total 2021 sales for Honeywell that we do not expect to return this year. In addition, we’re actively monitoring and navigating the worsening COVID-19 lockdown situation in China that is creating sales and supply chain inroads. With that as a backdrop, we expect second quarter sales to be in the range of $8.5 billion to $8.8 billion, down 2% to up 2% on an organic basis. Or flat to up 4% excluding the 1 point impact of the mask sales declines and the 1 point impact of lost Russian sales. This sales range assumes that COVID-19 lockdowns in China alleviate in May and that the Chinese operating environment remained relatively normal.
Despite the ongoing macro uncertainties, we now expect full year sales of $35.5 billion to $36.4 billion, which represents an increase of $100 million on the low end from our prior guidance, up 4% to 7% organically with accelerating growth as the year progresses. That represents organic growth of 6% to 9%, excluding the 1 point impact of the lower mask demand and 1 point impact of lost Russian sales. We expect that our disciplined price actions will keep us ahead of the current inflationary environment contributing approximately 5% to our sales growth, which is higher than we anticipated in our regional guide and offsetting the majority of the approximately $400 million of lost Russia sales.
Now let’s take a moment to walk through the second quarter and full year expectations by segment. An update on our 2022 end market outlook can be found in the appendix of this presentation. Starting with Aerospace, the overall industry supply chain complex continues to be a challenge. So we do expect to see moderate improvement throughout the year. Sequential growth in flight hours will lead to another quarter of robust growth for our air transport and business in general aviation aftermarket businesses. This momentum will carry through to the end of ’22 with growth led by the air transport aftermarket. With build rates improving as expected business in general aviation original equipment will grow sequentially each quarter for the balance of 2022.
As ‘222 progresses and our comps ease defense and space will see sequential improvement from the first quarter and return to year-over-year growth in the second half. We still expect full-year organic sales growth for aerospace to be up high-single digits. Growth in the original equipment will lead to mix-related margin headwind throughout the year, but we expect Aero margins to grow sequentially from the first half to the second half. In Building Technologies, we expect momentum to continue with sales growth, both sequentially and year-over-year throughout 2022 as supply chain constraints, particularly around semiconductors begin to ease and we deliver on strong demand for fire security products and building management systems.
Our targeted pricing actions will also provide growth on top of that unlock volumes. We expect Building Solutions to return to growth in the second quarter and rebound well into the second half finishing the year off strong. Underpinning the growth throughout the portfolio are our healthy buildings offerings, which will benefit from increased demand for air quality and touchless technology. Higher government spending on infrastructure will provide additional growth opportunities for us as well.
Overall, we now expect full-year organic sales growth of high-single-digit to double-digit trending better than expected. We continue to work diligently to combat the current inflationary environment and our cost controls and pricing actions will ensure that we maintain and build upon our margin expansion in both the second quarter and the back half of the year.
In Performance Materials and Technologies the macro setup remain stable for our portfolio and we are uniquely positioned to both participate in the oil and gas reinvestment cycle as well as enable the energy transition. However, PMT at the largest exposure to Russia among our segments and our decision to substantially suspend operations in the country represents a near-term sales growth headwind, particularly in UOP. Process solutions project orders are expected to remain strong throughout the year and volumes in the products businesses will increase as supply availability improves.
In UOP we see sequential improvement in the second quarter and throughout the year as catalyst reloads increase in refining markets and we are encouraged by the order pipeline for our sustainable technology. UOP is also a significant contributor to the liquefied natural gas capacity globally and recent government analysis to adjust incremental LNG capacity to ramp beyond what has already been committed, representing a promising opportunity for the business. Advanced materials pricing will continue to be a tailwind throughout the year and we are expanding capacity to position ourselves for further growth. In total, we still expect PMT sales to be up mid to high-single-digits for the year. PMT margins will benefit from our pricing and productivity actions and we expect sequential and year-over-year margin expansion in 2Q and continued sequential improvement in the second half.
Turning to Safety and Productivity Solutions, we expect productivity solutions and services, advanced sensing technologies, and gas detection to build on their momentum from the first quarter and continue to grow throughout the year. These businesses saw a year-over-year backlog growth of over 25% in 1Q and have demonstrated their ability to execute in difficult macro conditions, giving us confidence in the growth trajectory there. Especially as the supply chain environment improves. Lower COVID-related mask demand will continue to be a year-over-year drag in 2Q, but as we enter the second half of the year we’ll lap the difficult pandemic comps and personal protective equipment sales will return to growth, led by other product offerings in the portfolio.
In Intelligrated we’re encouraged by the progress we have made in improving our operational efficiency and profitability, and we’re increasing our focus on project selectivity finding a right balance between top and bottom line growth, as we discussed. We still expect SPS sales to be flattish year-over-year for the full year with sequential improvement each quarter. However, we anticipate margins to expand sequentially throughout the year as business mix, pricing, and volume compound.
Now let me turn to our expectations for the other core guided metrics. For second quarter segment margins we expect to be in the range of 20.5% to 20.9%, resulting in 10 to 50 basis points of year-over-year margin expansion. Excluding the 30 basis point headwind from Continuum, we expect margins to expand 40 to 80 basis points. Second quarter net below the line impact, which is the difference between segment profit and income before tax is expected to be in the range of $0 million to $45 million with a range of repositioning between $40 million and $80 million as we continue to fund ongoing restructuring projects. We expect the second quarter effective tax rate to be approximately 24% and the average share count to be approximately 687 million shares. As a result, we expect adjusted second quarter earnings per share between $1.98 and $2.08, down 2% to up 3% year-over-year.
Turning to the full year, we continue to expect segment margins to expand 10 to 50 basis points, supported by higher sales volume, price cost management, and our continued rigor on fixed costs. Excluding the 30 basis point headwind from Quantinuum we expect margin to expand 40 to 80 basis points in the year. SPS will lead the margin expansion for the company, as we continue to prioritize profitability in 2022 in that business, followed by HBT and PMT with Aero about flat year-over-year. We continue to expect our full-year net below the line impact to be in the range of negative $100 million to positive $50 million, including capacity for $300 million to $425 million of repositioning in the year.
We expect the full-year effective tax rate of approximately 22% and we now expect a weighted average share count to be the range of 684 million to 687 million shares for the year, reflecting our updated commitment to repurchase $4 billion of Honeywell shares in 2022. We have raised our full-year earnings per share expectations to $8.50 to $8.80, up 5% to 9% adjusted, an increase of $0.10 on both end versus our prior guidance due to our accelerated share repurchase commitment. We still expect to see free cash flow in the range of $4.7 billion to $5.1 billion in 2022 or $4.9 billion to $5.3 billion, excluding the impact of Quantinuum. So in total, we are raising our full-year earnings per share guidance and increasing the midpoint of our sales range, absorbing the impact of external macroeconomic factors.
Now let me turn it back to Darius to discuss our enhanced environment commitment coming out of our recent Investor Day.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Greg. Let’s turn to Slide 7 and talk about the more aspirational approach we’re taking to our ESG commitments. ESG have been part of Honeywell’s DNA for decades, will be an established track record of success in this area. Since we stood up our sustainability program in 2004, we’ve achieved every one of the ambitious targets we have set for ourselves, reduced our greenhouse gas emissions intensity by approximately 90%, while spending over $4 billion on remediation projects to restore thousands of acres of land for our communities.
While we’re thrilled in the successes we have had in the past, we believe we still have much to accomplish in the future. We’re currently on track to deliver on our 10-10-10 target set in 2019 further reducing our greenhouse gas emissions, while deploying renewable energy projects and improving energy efficiency at our sites. In addition, last year, we committed to achieving carbon-neutral facilities and operations by 2035 a full 15 years earlier than the Paris climate accords. While these targets are successful in reducing our Scope 1 and Scope 2 emissions, we didn’t stop there. Earlier this year, we submitted our commitment to the Science Based Targets initiative to address our Scope 3 emissions across our value chain. Lowering the environmental footprint of our products, we continue to innovate with products and services that help our customers reduce their own emissions.
In addition to our ambitious sustainability targets, we’ve also enhanced our ESG disclosures with additional metrics on our Investor Relations website, these include an ESG datasheet has metrics for diversity, water, greenhouse gas, and more, a defense & Space factsheet that includes more detailed information our sales make up and a document that breaks down Honeywell’s many ESG oriented offerings, which compromise more than 60% of our revenue today.
Now let’s turn to Slide 8 for some closing thoughts before we move into Q&A. As always, our value creation framework helped us successfully navigate the quarter and over-deliver on our commitments. Most of our end markets will continue to recover, we are optimistic about our future. Despite the ongoing geopolitical challenges, including approximately $400 million of lost Russian sales, we raised the midpoint of our full-year sales range and increased our earnings per share expectations. Our value creation framework is working with the ongoing recovery of our end markets, we remain optimistic about the future of our business.
While there is a heightened level of macro uncertainty at present, we remain confident our ability to execute on the pieces within our control. With that Sean let’s move to Q&A.
Sean Meakim — Vice President, Investor Relations
Thank you. Darius. Darius, Greg, Anne, and Torsten are now available to answer your questions. We as k that you please be mindful of others in the queue by only asking one question. Shannon, please open the line for Q&A.
Questions and Answers:
Operator
[Operator Instructions] Our first question is from Julian Mitchell with Barclays. Your line is open.
Julian Mitchell — Barclays — Analyst
Hi, good morning. Just wanted to…
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Good morning.
Julian Mitchell — Barclays — Analyst
Good morning. Just wanted to understand maybe on the margins first. So you’re guiding for sort of the second quarter sequentially for revenues to be up maybe $300 million, margins down though sequentially. So just trying to understand sort of what are the main segment drivers of that? And then within Aerospace, was the Q1 margin performance in line with what you expected and what’s the conviction on that margin turning around through the year?
Greg Lewis — Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, well, let me start by saying that margins don’t need to turn around they’re actually quite good at 27.4%. So we’re pretty happy with where they are. And yes, they were in line with what we had expected. We do see them coming down a bit in Q2 though, because as we’ve talked about the OE equipment margins are not favorable to us, and so we are facing some mix headwinds which those will continue to challenge us as the year goes on. And we also talk a lot about in our Investor Day our investment increases in R&D, in particular, which again are very important for some of our longer-term programs.
So we feel good about where we are, but that is going to be — we do expect a little bit of a sequential tick down there in Aerospace in particular. Probably get a little bit of a tick up in SPS, but those are really the — those are probably the two main movers overall. We will also have our corporate expense generally starts out a little slower in the early part of the year and ramps up. Again, that’s not big dollars, but as you know every $10 million is about 10 basis points for the company. So those are really the three things that highlight.
Julian Mitchell — Barclays — Analyst
Thanks. And then just one very quick follow-up would be on the China sourcing, you said I think you’re assuming in May, the issues recede in terms of supply chain issues in China from lockdowns, did you give any kind of dollar number for Q2 of the expected impact?
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
I think, Julian, that’s really impossible to quantify. I mean, what we’re assuming in our guidance range for Q2 is that essentially things come back to kind of normal state in May that’s the best data we currently have. If you think about our 20 manufacturing facilities that we have in China, about half of them are operating, more or less normally. And the other half are kind of impaired to some extent by either supply chain challenges inbound and-or the operation itself. But we do expect that to improve in May and get back to normal with normal production, certainly in June with steady improvement in May. And to quantify that right now would be impossible but that underpins our guidance for Q2.
Greg Lewis — Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah. And if I just would add to that, I mean how this all continues to happen in China obviously no one can say for sure. If things like what goes on in Shanghai happen early in the quarter, like they are right now, it’s going to impact our April, we’re already seeing that, but assuming everything comes back as Darius mentioned if things open back up after the first week of May, then we’ve got plenty of time to sort of make up that volume and recover the shipping. But how will that present itself throughout the quarter and the rest of the year really is unpredictable.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
And as Greg pointed out timing does matter, I mean, we expected a slightly softer April due to the outages and with these outages kind of happened in month one, we have time to recover. We get outages in month three assume we have much bigger problem and that we’re not anticipating. We are anticipating a recovery.
Julian Mitchell — Barclays — Analyst
Understood, thank you.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Steve Tusa with JP Morgan. Your line is open.
Steve Tusa — J.P. Morgan — Analyst
Hi, good morning.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Good morning.
Steve Tusa — J.P. Morgan — Analyst
Two negatives and two positives. The first, could you just clarify maybe with a little more precision where you expect the Aero margin to come in in the second quarter just to kind of like — kind of clear the decks on that? And then also on SPS, the warehouse business, how does that trend kind of sequentially as we go through the year? And then on the positive side, anything that you’re seeing are embedding on a pickup in defense or oil and gas in the second half of the year or maybe is that stuff still out kind of in front of us? Thanks.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I mean, let me maybe start on the second of your two questions. So in terms of defense and space our orders in Q1 were actually quite good. They were double-digit orders growth in defense and space, but I wouldn’t tell you that we’re seeing a big uptick yet due to some of the geopolitical situation, but we do think it could happen, but we’re not going to call it that it’s going to happen until we see it. So the orders growth in Q1 although good is not really tied to any of the geopolitical situation. And particularly in HPS we saw good orders growth in Q1, we actually anticipate some strong orders in UOP, particularly tied to some of our gas portfolio. So that looks good. So that’s sort of your second question. And Greg…
Greg Lewis — Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yeah, and obviously, we don’t guide individual segments any longer as you know, we’ve not done that for a while. So we do expect to see margins ticked down in Aerospace, less than 100 basis points, but more than 0. And there is a range around those things as well, which is why we don’t guide it any longer and as it relates to IGS that is a low-single-digit margin business. We expect that to go up each and every quarter by — think about it as maybe 100-ish basis points per quarter, as we work our way through the 2021 job that we took the charge on for last year, which the completion of those will be at zero margin. And we continue to get the benefit of the new projects and our execution improvements throughout the course of the year, which is way again we see both between that, as well as volume leverage that we ought to get from our products businesses and the rest of the portfolio that’s why we see a pretty consistent margin expansion sequentially quarter after quarter after quarter in SPS, which is why our best — it’s going to be our growth of the year. Yeah, just to add to that, I mean if you take a look at our backlog, which you’ve just provided, commercial activity is not our issue, commercial activity is about as strong as we’ve ever seen it, you see the improving backlog positions, orders positions. And I think this is all about supply chain and there is still unknowns around supply chain. I think on the semiconductor side, we probably have seen the bottom, but I would tell you the Aerospace supply chain is still challenged. And our de-commit rate from our suppliers is high and that’s why it’s so hard to call this thing because when you get a pretty high decomit rate, it’s difficult to call exactly what that’s going to look like in Q2, Q3, and Q4. So we remain optimistic that it’s going to continue to improve, but we got to kind of see it in the numbers.
Steve Tusa — J.P. Morgan — Analyst
Okay, great, thanks a lot guys.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Jeff Sprague with Vertical Research. Your line is open.
Jeff Sprague — Vertical Research — Analyst
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Good morning, Jeff.
Jeff Sprague — Vertical Research — Analyst
Good morning. I was wondering if you could share a little more color on the SAF project with APD Air Products, right. I mean, kind of the — maybe the first really big benchmark that I’ve seen $1 billion project, is there any way you can give us an idea of just the Honeywell scope in terms of kind of the front-end capital opportunity? And then what kind of the ongoing recurring revenue on catalyst and other things might be on a project of that size and scope?
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, I mean I think it’s a couple of things. So I would characterize it the following and we don’t release specific numbers to that project, but to think about it as two dimension. The first one is licensing and the technology itself, which can be recognized in one or two different ways, either upfront paid up license or license that’s recognizes royalty rate as SAF has produced. And then the second stream being the use of the catalyst itself to actually drive that SAF conversion. So this is not the only project that we’re going to be involved with. When we look at SAF and green fuels we want something like a double-digit number of projects in the last call it six to nin months it’s been on an incredible run. It’s just one example of what we do.
At some point we’re going to give you a bit of a framework, we’re not ready to share that yet in terms of exactly what it looks like, but it’s going to be definitely margin accretive and you should think about it very much like you said as a recurring revenue base based on the catalyst reloads which are going to be required to drive either SAF or green fuels and green gasoline.
Jeff Sprague — Vertical Research — Analyst
Right. And maybe just a housekeeping question for Greg, what was going on with minority interest in the quarter? Has something change with an ownership position and what would you point us to going forward there?
Greg Lewis — Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Minority interest you’re probably seeing the full quarter impact of Quantinuum because if you remember, we closed that in December. And so now we’re getting a full quarter of that minority interest, we get the consolidation of that which you see in the P&L, which is all the opex, but then we get the offset for our partner’s 46% share going the other way.
Jeff Sprague — Vertical Research — Analyst
So any direction on the go forward or the full year on that item?
Greg Lewis — Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
We can look at it separately in our call later I’m not sure I have that right off the top of my head.
Jeff Sprague — Vertical Research — Analyst
Great. All right, thanks a lot. I’ll pass it.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Jeff.
Operator
Our next question comes from Scott Davis with Melius Research. Your line is open.
Scott Davis — Melius Research — Analyst
Hi. Good morning, guys.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Good morning, Scott.
Scott Davis — Melius Research — Analyst
And Anne. All right, yes. So in your full year guide of 4% to 7% on volumes, how much of that is price? And are you still raising price, do you still need to raise price to offset this inflation that doesn’t seem to be going away?
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes, we are ongoing working our price. I mean, we basically are bumping up sort of the benefit of price by 1 percentage point. I think the one thing that — Scott, that I think you picked up, I mean essentially in this guide it is a substantial raise to our guide range. I mean, we didn’t explicitly say that, but it’s obvious because we’re basically absorbing a $400 million hit due to Russia with a measured margin rate of over $100 million. So this is a fairly significant raise to our outlook. The way we can overcome that hit is through pricing, we think now basically projecting an incremental point of price to a range of 5%.
Greg Lewis — Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
5%. Yes, we had talked about 4% in original guide, we now see it as 5% as you saw from the release. I mean we were up 7% in the first quarter.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes. And because we started doing these price increases a bit more aggressively in Q4 and Q1 obviously, as we get later in the year that starts to lap itself. Although I will tell you that we’re going to stay on top of this thing and we’re continuing to chase inflation and trying to stay ahead. And obviously, we have to do more price increases here in Q2 to continue to stay ahead of it.
Greg Lewis — Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
So again just simplistically we lost a point from Russia, we picked up a point on price. We kept the overall organic number the same.
Scott Davis — Melius Research — Analyst
Okay. That’s my one question, I’ll pass it on. Thank you, guys.
Greg Lewis — Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes, thanks, Scott.
Operator
Our next question comes from Nicole DeBlase with Deutsche Bank. Your line is open.
Nicole DeBlase — Deutsche Bank — Analyst
Yeah, thanks, good morning, guys.
Greg Lewis — Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Hey, Nicole.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Good morning.
Nicole DeBlase — Deutsche Bank — Analyst
Just maybe taking into HPS and PMT a little bit more on what you’re seeing from an order perspective and if the higher oil prices reflecting its way through more interesting or advanced customer conversation.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes, I mean I think as you saw in the quarter, we had very good order rates, I mean double-digit north of 20% order rates in HPS, UOP was a little lumpy frankly our LST business was strong, our UPT was a little bit less. So we expect a strong booking quarter in Q2, [Technical Issues] overall particularly for UOP we see strong orders growth, particularly as it relates to our natural gas oriented portfolio. So think about absorbants, gas processing midstream LNG terminals we’re in all that business it’s — we’re big partner of Venture Global to some of the projects that they’re completing and their expansion. So overall, we’re very bullish in terms of what’s going on, particularly as it relates to the gas infrastructure that’s currently being built up both in North America, the Middle East, and Europe.
Nicole DeBlase — Deutsche Bank — Analyst
Thanks. Darius.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question is from Andrew Obin with Bank of America. Your line is open.
Andrew Obin — Bank of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst
Hi, guys. Good morning. So I’ll ask sort of a long question. So the short part can you just talk about UOP revenue declined sort of despite an easier comp and growing refinery output just what’s the short-term explanation, I think I missed it? And a longer-term question, how do you think about longer-term impact of Russian oil having to find new markets? I’m just sort of thinking about the fact that globally you’ll need to recalibrate, a lot of these refineries, right? So to take Russian oil and then to take oil that will replace Russian oil in places like Europe. So first one near term UOP and second one how do we think about longer-term opportunity on refinery upgrades? Thank you.
Greg Lewis — Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
So, Andrew, I’ll take the first one and from a short-term perspective two simple things to think about. I mean, first off, the way we had our plant set up was we were going to be completing some projects in UPT that had already been in place. So we’re going to have — as that winds down, we’re going to have a year-over-year comp in the equipment business in the early part of the year that will be negative. And we see the catalyst business growing throughout the remainder of the year, which is going to support that growth rate more beyond that. So it’s — and the other aspect of that is back to Russia as an example, the biggest place we’re going to see the impact of Russia is going to be in UOP. And so UOP being down, I think it was 9% in the quarter, roughly 7% of that is from the loss of the Russia of volume in 1Q.
Andrew Obin — Bank of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst
Oh, wow.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah, yeah. UOP gets disproportionately, I talked about 1% hit for our revenues for the year that’s disproportionately UOP related and you saw that already in Q1. So that just to help that frame it up. As it relates to your second question, I mean essentially in terms of Russia oil, I mean it simplistically said instead of flowing West we think it’s going to start flowing South. And I think the good news about us that we have a global presence across the West and the South, and I think that benefits obviously a lot of our PMT best businesses. And as I mentioned earlier, kind of the gas infrastructure build-out in Western Europe, which will take place both in Western Europe, but also in the Middle East and in the U.S. will also have a positive benefit to our business.
So all in all, I mean I think we’re well-positioned there.
Andrew Obin — Bank of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst
How long do you think it would take quantify for the industry?
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
I mean, that’s hard to answer right now. I think we’re still kind of weeks into this conflict. So we’ll see — I mean, we’re obviously involved in a lot of the discussions of the new projects and so on. But — and I’m very, very confident that any of to build up that’s going to take place, particularly of our modular design concepts which really revolutionized LNG. I’m quite confident that we’re going to be a player in that space.
Andrew Obin — Bank of America Merrill Lynch — Analyst
I triggered as much. Thanks a lot.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Sheila Kahyaoglu with Jefferies. Your line is open.
Sheila Kahyaoglu — Jefferies — Analyst
Hi, good morning, Darius, Greg. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Good morning.
Sheila Kahyaoglu — Jefferies — Analyst
Can you talk about price a little bit more because it was really good in the quarter up and then low, how are you seeing price and inflation across the business given some nice shorter cycle and some are longer cycle like Aerospace can you maybe quantify what you saw across the business segments, the inflation burden or the price mix benefit?
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes, I mean, let me start, I mean, yes, if you think about price cost the price inflation, think about a 7 and 5 number in that kind of neighborhood, I mean we — this is really the benefit of Honeywell Digital. We talked a lot about that at Investor Day, but I now can tell you exactly on the impact of price cost for every over 37 business units and exactly what it’s going to look like going forward for the next three quarters. And I can tell you that in bits. It really enabled us to establish an operating system where we know what we need to do in terms of price, we know what we do in terms of coverage and where that business unit will be and it’s a weekly rhythm that we’re on, with all the business units. As a matter of fact, we’ve got a meeting later on today to talk about that topic. And we continue to stay on top of it.
But it’s not as simple in some businesses than others. I mean, some businesses we have contractual obligations, contractual limitations in terms of what we can pass on and when and we’re finding ways to be — to do that. I mean, everybody knows that inflation is with us. It’s probably going to continue to be with us we’re going to stay diligent and we’re very pleased with our results and able to stay ahead of the price cost equation.
Greg Lewis — Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yes, the only — to your point I’d just maybe expanding on your contractual obligations and also protections that we had some protections as well. So as you could probably guess the price equation is greater in SPS, HBT, PMT and we’re a little bit more constrained but also a little bit more protected in Aerospace where we have more of the longer-term contracts.
Sheila Kahyaoglu — Jefferies — Analyst
Great, thank you.
Operator
Our next question is from Josh Pokrzywinski with Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.
Josh Pokrzywinski — Morgan Stanley — Analyst
Hey, good morning, guys.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Good morning.
Josh Pokrzywinski — Morgan Stanley — Analyst
Good morning. Just a question on the supply chain side, I mean I think we’re still kind of hit or miss in terms of companies out there seeing improvement into 2Q and over the balance of the year. It seems like particularly in HBT and in some of the SPS a bit more kind of sequential improvement through the year than maybe others have seen, is this finding more suppliers, is it kind of an overall commentary that you guys have seen out of all the base, kind of surprised the China lockdowns have an impact. Could you speak to sort of how you’re getting that worked out?
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes, I mean there is a lot of variable. So let me try to unpack a little bit. I mean HBT and SPS although the supply chain is complex due to a variety install base of our product. It is somewhat contained primarily to the semiconductors and we think about semiconductors you are talking about the 5 to 10 core suppliers we’re monitoring. So it’s actually a little bit easier for us to get our arms around the situation and know when things will come in when they won’t come in and we’re cautiously optimistic about an improving supply source coming through for Q2, Q3, and Q4. And frankly, looking into Q2 from the beginning vis-a-vis Q1 or Q4, we actually looked a little bit better than we did in the other quarter. So we have reason to be cautiously optimistic, provided we don’t get decommit on semiconductors.
Now when you get into the aero segments it actually becomes a bit more challenged and to give you some very specific numbers, our level of the decommits, which is sort of last minute cancellations or pushouts was at a level of 22%, I mean that’s what makes it so difficult was actually worse than Q4 what was about 19%. We’re counting on some improvement in Q2 and Q3 and Q4, but now you’re not talking about less than 10 suppliers are talking about tens if not hundreds of suppliers and trying to really figure out exactly how well they’re going to deliver and when it becomes more challenging. Obviously, we’ve deployed our own people our own resources to that supply base to help them through some of their capacity challenges. Got a program around it. But it is challenged, and I can tell you that we have full perfect view as to exactly what’s going to happen.
We’re working through it and as you can see we certainly have the backlog to support — more than to support the business and we’re not just watching, we’re actually doing and we’ve got a substantial portion of people to just work the aero supply chain.
Josh Pokrzywinski — Morgan Stanley — Analyst
Good detail. Appreciate it.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Nigel Coe with Wolfe Research. Your line is open.
Nigel Coe — Wolfe Research — Analyst
Thanks, good morning, everyone. Thanks for the questions. Before getting to my questions, we’ve got a few inbounds, just to clarify the comments on China, did you say early May in terms of the Shanghai lockdowns moderating?
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes, I mean target is moving but we think in the — certainly in the first half of May we expect some ease in terms of the Shanghai lockdowns. That’s what we’re built into our guide for Q2.
Nigel Coe — Wolfe Research — Analyst
Okay, great. Thanks, Darius. And then just a follow-on with the supply chain constraints, particularly aero the commercial aftermarket up 20% not too shabby but is that growth and that ramp up that recovery being constrained by supply chain, i.e., it’s not just OE and defense it’s also aftermarket? And then within the aftermarket recovery, are we seeing yet the wide-body sort of ramp coming through yet or was that still on the comp?
Greg Lewis — Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Yes. So it absolutely is going to be a constraint on the aftermarket part of the business. I mean, certainly our MSP power by the hour, is going to be rev-rec just based on flight hours, but that’s a bit of that that’s tied to spares and repairs is going to have a physical constraint for sure. And that’s also, by the way, exactly what creates a little bit of our margin pressure as well, because we’ve got firm commitments to our OEMs and so that creates a bit of a squeeze between where the products will go in the chain and what the profitability around that is. So that is for sure an issue. Are we seeing some return to wide-body travel? We are. I wouldn’t call it dramatic at this point, in Q1, but we are seeing a little bit of a sequential move there, but we’ve said all along that is really going to be tied very much to travel across the globe as opposed to domestically.
And so when particularly with China locking down and that curtails of course anything in and out of China, even longer.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yes,.and to be — just a couple of openings I mean, yes, I mean as Greg pointed out wide-body travel is still constrained and limited and that’s still upside to go for us given, particularly our install on those aircraft. But the fact is, if you look at our backlog position we are in tremendous shape in Aerospace and probably the biggest issues we see in defense and space where we have a growing past due backlog at a faster rate than even some of the other segments. So really, we don’t — we’re not that worried about the commercial inbound and we saw just an incredible order rate, strong double-digit in order rate in Q1. All our focus is really on output and the supply chain. We get that going things get very, very good, very, very quickly.
Greg Lewis — Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
And just again to put some numbers behind it, we talked about our past due backlog going up $0.5 billion in the quarter about $200 million of that was in Aero about half of that was in defense and space, but the other half was in commercial. So there is clearly an impact in both areas. But as Darius said as that unlocks and the volume and the leverage that will come along with that really attractive.
Nigel Coe — Wolfe Research — Analyst
That’s great color. Thank you.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you.
Operator
Our next question comes from Deane Dray with RBC Capital Markets. Your line is open.
Deane Dray — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst
Thank you. Good morning, everyone.
Greg Lewis — Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer
Hey, Deane.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Hey, good morning, Deane.
Deane Dray — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst
Like to stay in Aero if I look at the segment outlook the defense and space being flat surprises me a bit and at the Analyst Meeting Darius you said you would not be surprised to see that be at high-single digits this year given the uptick in international defense budgets. Is it the fact that the U.S. defense budget is flat offsets that but why is that Aero not pointing higher?
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Well, because we’re really not seeing a lot of new orders yet due to some of the geopolitical conflicts to replenish the inventories. I mean, I think, and by the way, checking with some of the other OEs that’s not necessarily unusual. So that could be an uptick. When we talked about Investor Day there was some built-in optimism around that coming in and I still think it will happen. I’m just not going to call it yet until we actually see the orders coming through. Having said that, we did see double-digit orders growth in defense and space in Q1 just naturally without the addition of plus-ups in the defense budget.
So I think it could still be at that level, I’m just not going to call that until we actually see it more pronounced in our orders rate and I’m still optimistic that it will happen.
Deane Dray — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst
Great, thank you.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Deane.
Sean Meakim — Vice President, Investor Relations
Shannon, we have sounds of one more question.
Operator
Our last question is from Andy Kaplowitz with Citigroup. Your line is open.
Andy Kaplowitz — Citigroup — Analyst
Good morning, everyone. Thanks for fitting me in.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Hey, Andy, good morning.
Andy Kaplowitz — Citigroup — Analyst
Darius 9% is the highest backlog growth Honeywell’s recorded this cycle and despite macro uncertainty. Do you think the higher backlog is just a reflection of the hand off in your businesses from short and long cycle demand or is this may be a function of the fact that if we go back to what you said during the heart of the pandemic Honeywell’s portfolio wasn’t really set up well in the pandemic, maybe the opposite is happening now and would you expect your orders and backlog trajectory to stay at these elevated levels for a while?
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
You just nailed it Andy. Yeah, that’s exactly — you’ve got it exactly right, which is as we look in because we look at short cycle and longer cycle and we see now a little bit of a transition from slow the short cycle is still very good for us, but now we’re starting to slowly see that long cycle coming through, you see it in our backlog, you see it in our order rates and now it’s the time of the cycle where the long cycle businesses will start to have a bit more traction. And a lot of people are saying there may or may not be a recession in next 6 to 12 to 18 months, but I certainly hope it doesn’t happen. But if it does, I actually think that Honeywell can weather the storm quite well given the kind of backlog position in the markets we’re in, which is energy and aerospace, which frankly have been hurt disproportionately hard during the pandemic and now we’re starting to come back strong.
So I’m very, very optimistic about kind of the position to backlog, we’re in and I think you said is exactly right. We’re seeing kind of a transition occurring slowly but surely and it’s not because our short cycle is weak, but the long cycle smell starting to slowly pick up.
Andy Kaplowitz — Citigroup — Analyst
I appreciate it, Darius.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
Yeah. Thank you, Andy.
Operator
Thank you. I would now like to turn the conference back over to Darius Adamczyk for closing remarks.
Darius Adamczyk — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer
I want to thank our shareholders for your ongoing support. We delivered strong first-quarter results in a typical Honeywell fashion and have and will continue to navigate the numerous uncertainties, operational rigor, and agility in order to drive superior shareholder returns. Thank you all for listening and please stay safe and healthy.
Operator
[Operator Closing Remarks]