Keurig Dr Pepper Inc Q1 2026 Earnings Call Transcript

Note: This is a preliminary transcript and may contain inaccuracies. It will be updated with a final, fully-reviewed version soon.

Keurig Dr Pepper Inc (NASDAQ: KDP) Q1 2026 Earnings Call dated Apr. 23, 2026

Presentation

Operator

Good morning ladies and gentlemen and thank you for standing by. Welcome to Keurig Dr. Pepper’s earnings call for the first quarter of 2026. This conference call is being recorded and there will be a question and answer session at the end of the call. I would now like to introduce Chathan Malella, Vice President of Investor relations at Keurig Dr. Pepper. Please go ahead.

Chathan Malella — Vice President of Investor Relations

Thank you and hello everyone. Earlier this morning we issued a press release detailing our first quarter 2026 results which we will discuss on today’s call. An accompanying slide presentation is available and can be viewed in real time on the webcast. Before we get started, I’d like to remind you that our remarks will include forward looking statements which reflect KDP’s judgment, assumptions and analysis only. As of today, our actual results may differ materially from current expectations based on a number of factors affecting KDP’s business.

Except as required by law, we do not undertake any obligation to update any forward looking statements discussed today. For more information, please refer to our earnings release and the risk factors discussed in our Most recent form 10K and our latest 10Q, which will be filed with the SEC later today. Consistent with previous quarters, we will be discussing our Q1 performance on a non GAAP adjusted basis which reflects constant currency growth rates and excludes items affecting comparability. Definitions and reconciliations to the most directly comparable GAAP metrics are included in our earnings materials.

Here with us today to discuss our Results are Keurig Dr. Pepper’s Chief Executive Officer Tim Kofer and Chief Financial Officer Anthony D. Sylvestro. I’ll now turn it over to Tim.

Tim Kofer — Chief Executive Officer

Thanks Chetan and good morning everyone. We’re pleased with our start to the year. We closed the JD Peetz acquisition and made steady progress on our transformation initiatives while continuing to drive our base business with first quarter results that tracked slightly ahead of our expectations. In a dynamic operating environment, our teams remain focused on balancing longer term foundational work with near term execution. Looking ahead, our top priorities for 2026 remain unchanged, delivering our low double digit EPS growth guidance in a high quality way, seamlessly integrating JD EP and beginning to unlock combination benefits and achieving key milestones to set up a successful separation.

While there’s plenty of work ahead, our well constructed plans and year to date progress reinforce our confidence in delivering on these commitments. Before discussing our quarterly results, let me briefly touch on our transformation work. On April 1st we closed the acquisition of JDE Peets, welcoming over 20,000 new colleagues to KDP and bringing our complementary portfolios and capabilities together. United by a shared passion for great brands and exceptional coffee experiences. With the transaction now closed, we have begun to operationalize our integration plans led by a dedicated transformation management office and guided by clear work streams and accountability.

At the same time, we’re also advancing our work to separate into two advantaged pure play public companies which will be well positioned to create value through increased focus and organizational clarity. With fit for purpose strategies and capital allocation policies, Beverage Company will be a growth oriented challenger in the large and attractive $300 billion North American refreshment beverages market. With iconic brands differentiated go to market capabilities and a proven track record of white space expansion, the standalone beverage business should deliver compelling financial results while also possessing strategic optionality over time.

Global Coffee Company will be a scaled leader in the $400 billion global coffee market with an enhanced set of capabilities to meet consumer needs across formats, channels and geographies. Supported by a portfolio of leading global and regional brands, deep expertise in sourcing, blending and appliances, and strong synergy potential. The coffee business will also have a compelling value creation model. As we balance near term performance with our transformation agenda, we have put in place an operating model designed to maintain enterprise focus while preparing each business unit to operate independently at separation.

Under this structure, the centralized KDP Leadership team is responsible for strategic oversight, total company commitments and transaction execution while our dedicated beverage and Coffee operating units are accountable for delivering their 2026 business plans and and shaping the strategic direction for each business. As CEO of KDP and the future CEO of Beverage Company, I am overseeing both the KDP Leadership Team and the Beverage Operating Unit. As we recently announced, JDEP CEO Rafa Oliveira has been selected by the Board to lead the Coffee Operating Unit and become the future CEO of Global Coffee Company upon separation.

Rafa has meaningful CPG experience, a track record of navigating complex global markets and is the architect of J.D. Pete’s brand led strategy. He’s the natural choice to lead our coffee business today and in the future and I look forward to advancing our partnership as we prepare to stand up two winning companies. Overall, our transformation work is progressing well and we continue to target operational readiness to separate by the end of 2026, with the official separation likely to occur in early 2027 subject to market conditions.

Turning now to our first quarter results, net sales grew 8% with positive contributions from both net price realization and volume mix. Top line performance was led by continued strong momentum in US Refreshment beverages and International, partly offset by previously discussed temporary pressures in in US coffee, our EPS of 39 cents declined from last year reflecting the phasing of cost and tariff impacts and lapping a below the line gain in the year ago period. Importantly, as Anthony will discuss, we have visibility to healthy EPS growth beginning in the second quarter with further acceleration in the back half.

Let me now discuss our Q1 segment performance. I’ll start with us refreshment beverages, which delivered another robust growth quarter. Net sales and operating income each grew at a double digit rate driven by favorable trends in our core carbonated soft drink business and continued momentum in in our portfolio’s emerging growth areas. Within CSDS, the category remained healthy with Q1 retail sales dollars growing at a mid single digit rate and accelerating from Q4. While Dr. Pepper faced a difficult innovation comparison versus the BlackBerry launch last year, our underlying trends were strong with the brand’s three primary lines, Regular Diet and Zero Sugar, collectively gaining share during the quarter.

Supported by demand generation activity and point of sale execution. TSD innovation will play an important role in our plans for the rest of the year. Canada Dry Fruit Splash Strawberry launched nationally in February and has driven healthy consumer trial, strong on shelf velocities and incrementality to the franchise. The launch Contributed to Canada Dry’s Q1 share gains and should provide a further tailwind in coming quarters. In addition, the fan favorite Dr. Pepper Creamy Coconut Limited Time Offering Relaunched earlier this month and we’re confident it will build on its successful initial run during 2024 as it taps into ongoing consumer interest in dirty sodas.

Our performance in 2026 will also benefit from our continued focus on aligning our CSD portfolio with consumer needs around both value and wellness. With consumers seeking affordability in the current environment, we have refined our promotional strategies to offer compelling price points in key channels while maintaining discipline to ensure net price realization continues to offset inflationary pressures. We’re also leaning into the better few areas of our portfolio, with bloom population prebiotic CSDs expanding rapidly off a small base and our zero sugar CSD offerings growing at a double digit rate in Q1.

Beyond CSDs, we continue to build our presence in emerging growth areas. In energy, we once again expanded market share during the first quarter led by Bloom and Ghost, which were two of the top three fastest growing major trademarks in the category. Our performance reflected strong innovation, incremental distribution wins and high quality DSD execution. We believe our portfolio approach to the category remains a clear advantage and continue to see meaningful growth potential across C4, Ghost, Blum and Black Rifle.

Our sports hydration partnership with Electrolyte is also delivering healthy results with the brand gaining significant share in Q1 through distribution, expansion and strong velocities. Overall, US Refreshment Beverages continues to represent an outsized growth driver for KDP and we expect this segment to remain a Key contributor in 2026. Turning now to US coffee, while both net sales and operating income declined, the quarter largely played out as we expected and we have conviction in both the category and our business.

I’d highlight a few key points. First, the coffee category is healthy with continued growth and manageable elasticities. The Keurig compatible subsegment grew retail sales at a nearly 4% rate with our owned and licensed brands keeping pace. Our licensed Lavazza brand was a standout performer, growing K Cup sales more than 50% in the quarter through brand strength, successful innovation and increased distribution breadth and quality. Second, as expected, our reported results were impacted by some meaningful but temporary headwinds.

Peak year over year cost pressures constrained Q1 segment profitability reflecting the timing of higher cost green coffee hedges and tariffs and as previewed last quarter trade inventory adjustments pressured pod shipments which declined 7% and lagged point of sale trends weighing on operating income. Importantly, these headwinds should ease slightly in Q2 and moderate more meaningfully in the back half providing visibility to improved top and bottom line trends over the balance of the year. Third, despite the near term profit pressure, we’re thoughtfully investing in long term growth initiatives.

Let me provide a few examples. We’re enhancing our premium owned and licensed segment through the well supported Keurig Coffee Collective Innovation launch which is off to an encouraging start with strong retailer enthusiasm and early consumer trial. We are continuing to execute our coffee partnership strategy as evidenced by the recent renewal and expansion of our K Cup agreement with Nestle usa. This agreement does deepens and extends a highly successful relationship and will enable us to expand distribution and innovation for the Starbucks brand in the Keurig ecosystem and we continue to prepare the Keurig Alta system for its initial targeted direct to consumer launch planned for later this year.

This disruptive next generation coffee system will feature our Keurig brand, the newly acquired Premium Peet’s coffee brand and over time the likely participation of partner brands as well. Putting it all together, combining constructive category trends with our investments to support long term growth initiatives, we remain confident in the prospects for our coffee business in international Q1. Net sales grew at a high single digit rate driven by net price realization while volume mix declined modestly due to some short term impacts related to the Mexico beverage tax.

We’re encouraged by the resilience of underlying consumer demand and our share trends across Key Categories despite the top line strength, operating income declined reflecting cost pressures and higher investment spending in a seasonally smaller profit quarter. Looking ahead, we expect profitability trends to improve as inflationary pressures ease, volume mix strengthens and we execute our commercial plans for the year, including summertime activations to drive engagement and celebrate soccer fandom.

Overall, we continue to expect our international segment will remain a meaningful growth contributor over time, given our strong local share positions in attractive categories as well as portfolio and distribution expansion opportunities in both Canada and Mexico. We will also be disciplined and opportunistic in targeting other geographies. For example, we recently evolved our Suntory partnership in Europe to a more collaborative concentrate supply model that will provide access to incremental consumers through a capital light low risk model to close, we’re starting the year on solid footing.

We completed the JDE Peets acquisition, we’re making steady progress advancing our transformation agenda, and we remain on track to achieve our full year outlook. As we look ahead to the rest of the year, we’re focused on sustaining base business momentum, integrating JD Peets with excellence, and laying the groundwork for two strong standalone companies. With that, I’ll turn the call over to Anthony to discuss the financials in more detail.

Anthony D. Sylvestro — Chief Financial Officer

Thanks Tim and good morning everyone. We delivered solid first quarter results that were modestly ahead of our expectations, reflecting strong momentum, particularly in cold beverages. Net sales increased 8.1% in the quarter, led by strong gains in US refreshment beverages and international, partly offset by a decline in US Coffee. As expected, net price realization was the primary top line driver, contributing 5.5 percentage points to growth, while volume mix added 2.6 points. Gross margin contracted 220 basis points as elevated cost pressures were only partly offset by net price realization and productivity savings.

We expect Q1 to represent the most significant year over year gross margin decline for our legacy KDP business, with trends improving as inflation and tariff impacts ease, particularly in the back half. SGA was flat as a percent of sales with transportation and warehousing efficiencies offsetting increased marketing spending across all three segments to support our key brand equities and compelling innovation slate. All in Q1 operating income declined 1.9%, including the below the line impact of lapping.

Last year’s 2 cent gain on the sale of our Vita Cocoa steak EPS decreased 7.1% to $0.39. Moving on to our segments, US refreshment beverages net sales grew 11.9% with volume mix contributing 7.2 points. Net price realization added another 4.7 points, reflecting inflation driven price increases taken early in the year. On the bottom line segment operating income was strong, increasing 9.8% with net sales growth and productivity savings more than offsetting inflation and higher marketing spending.

Overall, US Refreshment Beverages has strong momentum led by healthy trends in carbonated soft drinks, energy and sports hydration. We have robust innovation and commercial plans in place for the balance of 2026 and expect another strong year for the segment. In US Coffee, our Q1 performance was largely as anticipated. Net sales declined 2.3% with volume mix driving an 8.2 percentage point decline. Pod shipments declined 7% reflecting trade inventory adjustments along with manageable price elasticities.

Brewer shipments also declined at a high single digit rate, primarily driven by elasticity. Net price realization added 5.9 points to net sales, driven primarily by carryover pricing in both pods and brewers. Turning to profit segment operating income declined 21.3%. This was primarily driven by meaningful cost pressures as higher green coffee costs and tariffs flowed through our results in the quarter. Profitability was also impacted by the pod shipment decline and increased marketing spending.

Collectively, these factors more than offset benefits from net price realization. Productivity Savings Ultimately, our U.S. Coffee segment is tracking with our plans. While we continue to expect subdued profit for the full year, we have visibility to progressive improvement, particularly in the second half when our costs improve and short term trade inventory dynamics normalize. In our international segment, constant currency net sales increased 8.5%, net price realization contributed 9.2 percentage points driven by pricing actions taken in response to cost pressures in both Mexico and Canada, volume mix provided a partial offset declining 0.7 percentage points.

International segment operating income declined 15.1% on a constant currency basis primarily due to cost pressures including the Mexico beverage tax and increased marketing spending. As we previewed last quarter, we planned for a softer start to the year in this segment and we continue to expect profit trends to improve as 2026 progresses. Turning to the balance sheet and cash flow, during the first quarter, we closed the financing for the JDEP acquisition with an optimized structure comprised of a $4.5 billion beverage company convertible preferred equity investment, a $4 billion coffee company, pod manufacturing, JV minority investment, approximately $6 billion in newly issued long term senior debt and an additional term loan borrowings.

Based on this financing mix, we continue to expect net leverage of approximately 4.5 times at mid year. We remain committed to investment grade ratings for KDP and our two future companies and will prioritize debt paydown in the near term. Our plan is for free cash flow generation to serve as the primary deleveraging source, though we will also continue to assess non core asset divestitures. We generated $184 million of free cash flow in the first quarter and continue to expect legacy KDP will generate approximately $2 billion for the full year.

Incorporating the net cash flow contribution from JDE peets this year including the impact of incremental financing costs and one time deal and transformation related expenses, we expect approximately $2.5 billion of aggregate company free cash flow in 2026. Cash generation should increase beyond this year enabling us to further optimize beverage company and global Coffee Co’s capital structures and over time providing optionality for value enhancing capital allocation. Let me now turn to guidance.

We are reaffirming our 2026 outlook which uses current FX rates and includes the anticipated contribution from JDE Peets. As of the April 1st deal close date, we plan to report JDE Peets as a separate segment until separation. For the total company we expect net sales in a range of 25.9 to $26.4 billion reflecting 4 to 6% constant currency growth for legacy KDP and an 8.5 to $8.7 billion contribution from JD EP. On the bottom line, we expect low double digit EPS growth in constant currency which includes an anticipated 6 to 7 percentage points contribution from from the JDEP acquisition and 4 to 6% growth for legacy KDP.

Based on current rates we anticipate that FX will represent an approximately 1 percentage point tailwind to total company net sales and EPS growth for the full year. Below the line we are assuming the following interest expense of approximately 1.13 to to $1.16 billion, an effective tax rate of approximately 22% and approximately 1.37 billion diluted weighted average shares outstanding. As a reminder, beginning with the second quarter our P&L will also have two new impacts to reflect the pod manufacturing JV and and the convertible preferred security.

For the balance of 2026 we expect the following approximately $190 million in pre tax coffee JV costs which will flow through the non controlling interest line and convertible preferred costs that will flow through below net income to KDP and will be calculated in each quarter as the greater of the roughly $53 million quarterly preferred dividend or the securities approximately 8% proportionate share of earnings. For 2026 we expect the calculation to default to the proportionate share of earnings.

From a phasing perspective we expect high single digit eps growth in Q2 with further acceleration in the back half as costs improve and synergies build. In closing, we delivered solid Q1 results. Our teams executed well in a highly dynamic environment and made important progress preparing the company for its next chapter. We remain on track to deliver our full year commitments while also building the foundation for our two future stand alone public companies. With that, I will turn the call back to Tim for closing remarks.

Tim Kofer — Chief Executive Officer

Thanks Anthony. Overall, we’re pleased with our start to the year with clear priorities and well crafted plans. We’re striking a healthy balance between near term fundamental delivery and our longer term transformation initiatives. We will remain focused on disciplined execution to achieve our 2026 commitments and capitalize on the value creation opportunity we see ahead. With that, we’re now happy to take your questions.

Question & Answers

Operator

We will now begin the question and answer session. To ask a question, you may press Star then one on your touchtone phone. If you are using a speakerphone, please pick up your handset before pressing the keys. If at any time your question has been addressed and you would like to withdraw your question, please press Star then two we ask that you please limit yourself to one question at this time. We will pause momentarily to assemble our roster. The first question today comes from Dara Mohsinian with Morgan Stanley.

Please go ahead.

Dara Mohsinian

Hey, good morning. So first on us for freshmen, clearly strong sales growth on an underlying basis, even adjusting for incremental gross distribution, etc. Can you just give us a bit more detail under the hood on what’s driving the momentum at a segment and brand level and how sustainable you think those growth drivers are going forward and any thoughts on the impact from snap changes so far? And then if I can just slip one in on coffee, there’s obviously a lot of dynamic factors impacting profitability at this point.

You have the higher commodity pressure, particularly with the hedges and the inventory timing. But at the same time, obviously green coffee prices have come off, the tariff situation’s improved. So just can you give us an update on a quarterly basis going forward how you see profitability in that segment playing out given those factors, and also how pricing ties into the cost dynamics both in terms of what you’re seeing in the marketplace and your own potential actions. Thanks.

Tim Kofer — Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, Dara. Yeah, I’ll tackle the first two and I’ll kick it over to Anthony to talk about coffee profitability. Look on US Refreshment Beverage, we’re very pleased with our start to the year. You saw the print double digit growth both on the top line and the bottom line. And in terms of your question on sustainability, we expect this segment will continue to deliver strong results in the balance of the year, both top and bottom. As you think about the top line, we’ve got a great innovation slate lined up.

You’ve already seen the impact on our second largest CSD brand, Canada Dry with the fruit splash innovation and news there that drove share gains. Literally in the last days a week we’ve launched Dr. Pepper Creamy Coconut. We expect that to be a big hit this year. Capitalizing on dirty sodas Feel very good about our DSD route to market execution and the ability to continue to drive distribution gains for key brands. Both own brands that are showing strong growth continued momentum like our zero sugar lineup and a lot of partner brands think energy rapid hydration prebiotic csds.

Last thing I’d say on the top line driver is stepped up brand support. We are planning to increase marketing this year. We did it in the first quarter. You’ll see it on a full year basis and really dialing up our precision marketing capabilities and our digital agenda. Having said that, I will say net sales will likely moderate relative to the Q1 elevated levels the quarter. As you mentioned, Dara did benefit from some incremental ghost distribution year over year, you know, on a comparison basis and some outside growth and some partner brands.

Having said that, top line growth will remain strong for the remainder of the year. Healthy volume trends, positive net price realization and US REF will be an outsized contributor relative to our MSD Net Sales Growth guide for legacy kdp. And I expect this top line growth momentum will also translate into continued operating income as well. You then referenced snap. I would tell you this, we’re seeing healthy trends across our categories. You know, even with the pricing actions to offset inflation, the volume we’re seeing in CSDS at a category level and broader LRB have been positive this year and I think this underscores the value that our categories provide to our consumers and what we’re doing around affordable pack sizes and some of the work on price pack architecture and rgm, the innovation is still ringing true to consumers and providing continued appeal.

So the SNAP impacts to date have been manageable and largely consistent with our expectations and our plans. We know and we monitor closely state by state how these waivers roll out and you’ll expect us to continue to monitor that and adjust in our RGM capabilities to ensure that we deliver on our guide.

Anthony D. Sylvestro — Chief Financial Officer

On the coffee phasing question, let me start by saying on a full year basis for 20, you know we do expect a modest year over year profit decline for US Coffee with the cost pressures continuing to exceed pricing and productivity, particularly you know, in the first half and you saw it in our, in our first quarter. Now our results will also reflect our decision to prioritize investment spending as we set up the business for, you know, separation, you know, despite the inflationary backdrop drop, you know, from a phasing perspective, we would expect the Q1 decline will be the most significant, you know, for the year as the inflation cost pressures peak on a year over year basis.

And you’re seeing the green coffee cost inflation come through the, you know, the P and L. And as we’ve talked about in the past, it does lag, you know, market prices by about six to nine months, giving our hedging programs and our inventory cycle. I would also say in the first quarter a little bit of extra drag, top and bottom line from some adjustments and reductions in trade inventory levels, particularly in pods. And also as I said, our higher marketing spend behind initiatives like Keurig Coffee Collective and the Keurig Anthem campaign.

This pressure should begin to moderate a bit in Q2, but the larger improvement will be in the back half. Cost inflation will meaningfully ease in the second half and our innovation and commercial programming will begin to kick in and we should see some top line improvement. And I would end by saying, look, based on current coffee prices, this could be a tailwind for us going into 2027.

Operator

The next question comes from Chris Carey with Wells Fargo. Please go ahead.

Chris Carey — Analyst, Wells Fargo

Hi, good morning everyone. So I wanted to follow up on this line of thinking just to number one, stress test confidence a bit more. I look at consensus estimates for coffee margins specifically and see roughly 1000 basis points of margin improvement into the back half of the year. Certainly you’re not talking about guiding the segment margins, but there’s clearly some nice improvement in margins if you’re going to see modest profit declines in the full year. There’s also roughly high teens or 20% earnings growth in the back half if you’re delivering high single digits in Q2.

I just wanted to maybe dig in a bit deeper on the cost front. How much visibility do you have in your coffee costs at this point of the year? I assume high. And secondly, how much visibility do you have that your stronger consumption trends in coffee will be reflected in stronger shipment trends so as to avoid some of the volume mix deleverage into the back half of the year. And just one quick follow up as well on US refreshment from the creamy coconut launch. Are you expecting any uplift into Q2?

Because I would imagine that would offset some of the drop off in ghost. Thank you.

Tim Kofer — Chief Executive Officer

Okay. Let me start broadly with talking about US Coffee and how we’re seeing the various puts and takes on the year. And then Anthony, maybe you can talk more specifically on green coffee costs and you know, how we’re seeing that flow through the P and L, you know, on a quarterly basis. I think our focus in 2026 in US coffee is to navigate these near term headwinds while really positioning our business for long term success. So as we anticipated and as we shared at the guide at the beginning of the year, the first half of the year features headwinds from real peaking cost pressures and some trade inventory adjustments.

And so you’ve seen that flow through impacting both our top and our bottom line performance in the first quarter. But this is tracking right onto our expectations. Anthony mentioned this a minute ago. We’re also deliberately stepping up our investment behind long term growth initiatives even as we manage through these higher cost peak inflationary environment in Q1 from a P and L standpoint. So we meaningfully increased our Q1 marketing. Anthony said it earlier on both pods and brewers and you know, against our fairly robust active innovation slate on both the pod and the brewer side, Keurig Coffee Collective, new brewers and then preparing for ulta.

All of this gives us good line of sight to an improving top and bottom line trend. As the year progresses. Net sales will improve as our innovation, our marketing, our commercial investment will build through the quarters and operating income will also benefit from the improving coffee cost envelope. Particularly starting in the second. Second half. Anthony, you want to talk a little more on coffee cost green? Sure,

Anthony D. Sylvestro — Chief Financial Officer

Sure. Let me step back a bit. You know, we are guiding, you know and we have a high degree of confidence to our low double digit EPS guide. And as Tim mentioned, that’s going to, you know, accelerate as we go through the year here for a number of reasons. The most significant one would be green coffee costs and we have very good visibility to how this will flow through balance a year. You know, giving our current hedging program as well as our inventory cycle. I would add to that, you know, we are mostly hedged on other commodities, including those that have been impacted by the recent conflicts in the Middle East.

We are also bringing on board obviously JDE Pete’s and JDE Pete’s profile will follow a one that’s similar to a our US Coffee segment. Right. As coffee prices improve, their quarterly performance will improve as well. And also again we have good visibility to that now as we bring J.D. Pete into the fold, we will build synergies throughout the year and that’ll obviously have a building impact on our performance as we go through the quarters. So sitting here today, good visibility to the rest of the quarters and which gives us a high level of confidence in our guide.

Tim Kofer — Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. And then Chris, your last question back on Dr. Pepper and creamy Coconut. You know, as you think about Q1 on Dr. Pepper, it did reflect a bit of innovation timing shift. So BlackBerry a year ago launched early in the year and we lapped that so we saw a little bit of pressure there. But as I mentioned in my prepared remarks, our three core Dr. Pepper lines, Regular Zero and Diet Dr. Pepper collectively grew share so overall feel great about Pepper momentum. Now layer in Creamy Coconut and we’ve got a lot of confidence.

Creamy Coconut is going to be a big success this year. Already in the first few weeks we’ve seen a ton on social and in store activity. There’s a lot of excitement building as we roll into summer on Creamy Coconut and I do think that’ll be an important contributor year to go for brand Dr. Pepper. On top of that, I would tell you we still have, you know, we’re going after some unique occasions and consumers, there’s still distribution gaps we can close. Dr. Pepper Zero Sugar continues to grow at a double digit rate and has upside and we’re layering on our enhanced precision and personalized marketing capabilities.

So Dr. Pepper will be a great growth standout. We expect another year of share growth and a meaningful contributor to outsized growth in US Refreshment beverage.

Operator

The next question comes from Michael Lavery with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Michael Lavery — Analyst, Piper Sandler

Thank you. Good morning. You touched on each of the segments and just unpacked how some of the year unfolds. Helpful color, but could you walk us through the JDEP piece of that and just considerations on what’s left for the rest of the year and how to think about just moving parts in what’s going on there.

Tim Kofer — Chief Executive Officer

Sure. Let me start by saying, you know, overall, we closed the deal April 1st and I think overall I’d tell you what we’ve learned in the last few weeks confirms everything we saw in our planning process and in the deal close period. This is a business that has a healthy foundation, strong brand, strong capabilities and a talented team. I’m seeing already the energy and the opportunity behind both their what they called reignite the amazing strategy which is in its early stages but has lots of Runway and now the combination benefits of combining legacy Keurig green Mountain with J.D.E.

Peetz. We’ve announced and we can confirm confidence in the 400 million in synergies as well as some incremental revenue opportunities in particular here in North America between the Peet’s brands and the Keurig brands. So feel very good broadly about, you know, what we’ve seen since the, since the close, you know, in terms of performance of the business. Obviously, you know, we just took ownership of the business. So I’ll speak at a high level on what we’ve seen year to date. I would say the trends are consistent with our expectations even back to when we announced the deal.

Obviously back in 25, they delivered a solid year managing through the very unfavorable sea price inflation. And we are on track for another good year here in 2026. I would say the phasing of the results will be influenced by commodity cost timing, just like we’re seeing in the KDP coffee business. And the profit will be more constrained in this inflationary first half. We saw that in Q1, we expect that to continue into Q2, but at the same time we have good visibility to accelerating trends in the second half as green coffee becomes more favorable.

Operator

The next question comes from Andrea Teixeira with JP Morgan. Please go ahead.

Andrea Teixeira — Analyst, JP Morgan

Thank you. Good morning everyone. I was hoping to see if you can talk about like as the green coffee prices improve, are you planning to roll back some of the pricing you had for Coughpot to just reignite volumes and improve operating leverage? And just as a clarification, as we decompose US refreshment beverages volume mix in particular because of Ghost, can you comment on how it behaved on a more organic basis? Thank you.

Anthony D. Sylvestro — Chief Financial Officer

Sure. I’ll start on the coffee pricing question. So you know, in coffee, our pricing in 2026 that you’re seeing in the sales bridge is primarily the carryover from 2025 actions that we took to offset, you know, inflation. And as we talked about, the inflation is persisting in the first and second quarter of this year as we see it come through the, you know, the PNL and as we move into the second half that the current coffee price pullback should ease pressure on our P and L. So we should see a moderating impact of year over year pricing as that happens and that moderation comes through in the second half and we lap some of those prior year increases.

Beyond that, it’s probably not appropriate for us to speculate on future pricing actions. You know, we’ll certainly continue to monitor the inflationary environment. We keep an eye on the elasticities, we are mindful of any price gaps and certainly prioritize providing value to our consumers as we consider these longer term pricing actions.

Tim Kofer — Chief Executive Officer

Good. And then Andrea, you asked a question related to Ghost and I think I mentioned that in response to Dara’s question. Q1 did benefit from some incremental year over year GHOST distribution benefits. And if I had to dimensionalize that, that’s worth a couple of points, you know, in terms of that one time impact as we lap that, a couple of points to the USRB growth performance. Now we’ve cycled that kind of onetime benefit and now we’re just in core KDP DSD growth which we expect will continue to be outsized.

Right. There’s still distribution growth opportunities, feature and display, cold cooler presence as well as a robust innovation slate for ghost. So GHOST will continue to be a outsized growth driver, but Q1 in particular benefited from a couple of months of outsized performance.

Operator

The next question comes from Peter Galbo with Bank of America. Please go ahead.

Peter Galbo — Analyst, Bank Of America

Hey, good morning, Tim and Anthony. Thanks for the question. Anthony, I wanted to go back to a comment that you made around kind of being hedged on input costs that may be tied to the Middle east at least for the remainder of this year. I think maybe it would just be helpful to sensitize or help us sensitize some of the exposures to things like aluminum and pet if we do get a prolonged kind of rally here in resins and aluminum costs that lasts into 27. So just any additional color you can help us with there as we start to contemplate maybe what the margin implication could be going forward.

Thanks very much.

Anthony D. Sylvestro — Chief Financial Officer

Sure, sure. Look, you know, as with many CPG companies, we have both direct and indirect exposure to commodities that have been impacted by the, you know, the Middle east conflict. You know, this includes a number of inputs tied to the packaging and energy areas such as aluminum resins, you know, diesel, that’s in our DSD network, you know, freight costs. And I would say that, you know, no single one of those inputs has an outsized impact on our cost structure. But they’re all, you know, they’re all important.

And as we’ve seen the recent inflationary moves, we have a very systematic and comprehensive hedging program and those hedges and forward cover are in place to help insulate us in the near term from that volatility for 2026. We are largely hedged and wouldn’t expect to see the recent movement impact our P and l in 2026. But I would say to the extent those higher prices sustain, we would develop mitigating action plans that we would execute longer term to protect our margins.

Operator

The next question comes from Robert Moscow with TD Cowan. Please go ahead.

Robert Moscow — Analyst, TD Cowan

Hi. Thank you for the question. You may have mentioned it before, but you said in your prepared remarks that after the split you’ll have optionality for value enhancing capital actions. I want to know if you could give any more color on what those actions might entail and would they have anything to do with the convertible you have and the minority investments.

Tim Kofer — Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I’ll take that. And I did make that comment as it relates BevCo. I think specifically, obviously both companies on the other side of this separation will have the independent optionality to make the best choices for their business and their shareholders. You know, as I think about BevCo, let me start by saying that I love this portfolio. The leadership positions we have across the LRB categories, the advantage capabilities that we built and really this very entrepreneurial challenger culture that runs through our company.

And I’m confident that with these set of characteristics and advantages we can deliver consistent top tier results and we can create a lot of value as an independent company. We, I do believe we’ll have some additional strategic optionality that perhaps was less actionable under a combined KDP umbrella. And what could those look like? I mean one’s around route time market. I’m a big believer in the power of dsd. It’s a source of competitive advantage and I do think today it is optimal for us to own DSD in most markets.

We take it a very local decision, case by case and we let the, you know, the scale and the economics and what’s best for our brands dictate that ultimate route to market. But as a standalone, bepco will be incentivized to continue to test the optimal model as it relates route to market. And I think as a standalone company we’ve got that optionality. The other area is just around portfolio and continuing to future proof this portfolio ensure this portfolio is structurally advantaged. You know pursuing white space expansion has always been a priority for KDP And I think BevCo will be even more agile and even more proactive in this area.

We can consider earlier stage partnerships, new geographies, you know, more creative structures. So you know overall got a lot of conviction in the future. Bevco and our ability to drive healthy top and bottom line growth in our current portfolio and with enhanced optionality.

Operator

The next question comes from Camille Garjawala with Jeffrey. Please go ahead

Camille Garjawala — Analyst, Jeffrey

Everyone. Good morning. I guess one quick just clarification on the guidance for Q2 is that total company guidance or is It I guess legacy KDP and then sort of drafting off of Robert’s question on the portfolio maybe just to add to that what Anthony had mentioned on the potential sale of non core assets. What types of things would that be and is the intention just to maybe have a tighter portfolio there or is it more in the spirit of bringing down leverage?

Anthony D. Sylvestro — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. In answer to your first question, the high single digit is total company outlook for the second quarter. In terms of your other question, just stepping back a little bit. We are very focused on committed to investment grade ratings not only for KDP but for the two future companies. And our ability to be leveraged is primarily driven by our ability to generate significant free cash flow. And you know, you heard it in our prepared remarks, you know we are expecting 2.5 billion of free cash flow which includes nine months of JDEP and all the related costs of the debt finance debt financing.

We also said, you know that free cash flow obviously will support our dividend and enable us to deleverage by about a half a turn you know, per year. And you know that’ll get us to our, you know, stated leverage targets at separation which is three and a half to four times for BevCo, three and three quarters to four and a quarter for Global Coffee Company. But we also said we’ll look for additional opportunities to accelerate deleveraging. Not appropriate to getting any specific details but there are a number of things that we’re looking at across non core assets and minority investments to help us along.

Operator

The last question today comes from Filippo Filorni with Citi. Please go ahead.

Filippo Filorni

Hi, good morning everyone. I wanted to ask on your energy drink portfolio, we continue to see very solid growth for both Ghost and Bloom in truck channel data. Can you comment a bit on the shelf space gains that you’re realizing in the spring resets like how much room do you see in terms of further distribution for both brands? And then on the other side C4 has been a little bit softer. Do you see any cannibalization from Ghost or what are the plans to re accelerate that brand? Thank you.

Tim Kofer — Chief Executive Officer

Sure. Thanks. Filippo, you’ve heard me say this many times. Big believer in energy as a category. It’s 29 billion. It’s growing mid teens and there are structural growth drivers in place that suggest this is a category that continues to have a long Runway for growth. I think there’s distribution expansion particularly when you think about channels outside of C store. There’s household penetration, upside, there’s occasions to go after. There’s cohorts obviously female Forward brands are experiencing tremendous growth right now and we have one of those in our portfolio in Bloom.

So it’s a great category, strong growth and we see continued Runway. We like the approach we’ve taken. We’ve taken a portfolio approach. We have four brands of scale that we go to market with Ghost, great lifestyle brand C4 in performance, Bloom, Female Forward and Black Rifle and Mainstream and feel good about that position and you saw continued market share growth here in the first quarter and we expect that to continue on the year. Our portfolio is well over a billion dollars now and we see continued upside as it relates your other two kind of sub questions on one on shelf space and one on C4 on shelf space.

We had a successful sell in cycle for our energy portfolio this year and we are beginning to see and would expect on the year meaningful distribution gains, you know, incremental TDP’s or total distribution points including in the critical convenience retail channel, expanded space as well in, you know, kind of up and down the street. And you’re seeing that particularly with Ghost and with Bloom on C4. We feel great about our partnership with Nutrabolt and what we’re building together on C4. We’ve created a lot of value for both parties since we first took distribution back in 2023, has more than doubled its retail sales, added more than a point of market share and as it relates near end performance, it is fair to say we made some decisions together with our nutribull partners to rationalize some elements of the portfolio.

So there was a smart subline that we’re no longer distributing through DSD and the ultimate line has been repositioned for even stronger performance. And that’s in the high stimulation, you know, 300mg type of caffeine segment. So when you adjust for those factors we feel good about the underlying trends and kind of the core, you know, yellow can performance line. Excited about the innovation that we’re bringing to market with our Nutribull partners and confident in C4’s long Runway ahead to drive brand momentum.

Operator

This concludes our question and answer session. I would like to turn the conference back over to Chathan Alella for any closing remarks.

Chathan Malella — Vice President of Investor Relations

Thanks Betsy. And thanks everyone for joining us today and for your interest in kdp. The IR team is available if you have any follow ups. Thanks so much and have a great day.

Operator

The conference has now concluded. Thank you for attending today’s presentation. You may now.