Massive earnings miss. Hello Group Inc. (NASDAQ: MOMO) reported adjusted EPS of $0.24 for Q4 2025, missing the consensus estimate of $1.53 by 84.3%. The social entertainment platform’s results fell sharply short of Wall Street expectations, with adjusted net income of $40.3 million on revenue of $368.3 million. GAAP EPS came in at $0.21, down 83.8% from $1.30 a year earlier.
Revenue collapses year-over-year. Q4 revenue of $368.3 million plunged 86.0% from $2.64 billion in the year-ago quarter. The company did not provide a revenue estimate for comparison. Domestic revenue reached RMB1.97 billion, down 14% year-over-year, while overseas revenue climbed 70% to RMB608 million, now representing 24% of total revenue compared to 14% in Q4 2024. Operating income of $43.9 million reflected a 13.7% margin as the company maintained cost discipline despite top-line pressure.
Tax headwinds and macro softness. COO Zhang Sichuan attributed the domestic weakness to external pressures: “New tax policies really hit our supply side and momentum slowed. That said, the mobile team did an incredible job staying steady in a really challenging environment.” She noted the company pivoted strategy mid-year, explaining, “While the top tier users started to tighten their belts, we pivoted and we did it fast. We move our focus for our two small ticket spenders, think social games and direct chat features that don’t need expensive agencies”. The shift helped add 400,000 paying users in the second half of 2025 despite macro headwinds.
Cautious Q1 outlook. CFO Peng Hui projected mainland China revenue will decline by “mid to high teens percentage wise, while overseas revenue is expected to grow by high-40s percentage wise”. For full-year 2026, she estimated domestic revenue will decline in the “low to mid-teens year-over-year,” with the decline moderating to below 10% by Q4 if conditions stabilize. The company expects overseas revenue to reach approximately RMB3 billion in 2026, up from RMB2 billion in 2025.
This article was generated using AlphaStreet’s proprietary financial analysis technology and reviewed by our editorial team.