Norfolk Southern Corporation (NYSE: NSC) Q2 2025 Earnings Call dated Jul. 29, 2025
Corporate Participants:
Luke Nichols — Investor Relations
Mark R. George — President & Chief Executive Officer
James Vena — Chief Executive Officer
Jason A. Zampi — Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Jennifer Hayman — Chief Financial officer
Analysts:
Scott Group — Analyst
Jonathan Chappell — Analyst
Brian Ossenbeck — Analyst
Brandon Oglenski — Analyst
Fadi Chamoun — Analyst
Thomas Wadewitz — Analyst
Jason Seidl — Analyst
David Vernon — Analyst
Stephanie Moore — Analyst
Bascome Majors — Analyst
Walter Spracklin — Analyst
Presentation:
Operator
Good morning, ladies and gentlemen, and welcome to the call to discuss America’s First Transcontinental railroad. At this time, note that all participant lines are in a listen-only mode. Following the presentation, we will conduct a question-and-answer session. In fact, anytime during this call you require muted assistance, please press star zero for the operator. And I would like to turn the conference over to Luke Nichols. Please go-ahead.
Luke Nichols — Investor Relations
Good morning. Please note that during today’s call, we will make certain forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Safe-Harbor provision of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. These statements relate to future events or future performance, which are subject to risks and uncertainties and may differ materially from actual results. Please refer to both Norfolk Southern Corporation’s and Union Pacific Corporation’s annual and quarterly reports filed with the SEC for a discussion of those risks and uncertainties we view as most important.
Our presentation slides are available at norfolksouthern.com in the Investors section along with our reconciliation of any non-GAAP measures used today to the comparable GAAP measures, including adjusted or non-GAAP operating ratio. Please note that all references to our prospective operating ratio to date will be provided on an adjusted basis. A brief question-and-answer session will follow the formal presentation. Starting the presentation on Slide 3, I’ll now pass the call over to Norfolk Southern President and Chief Executive Officer, Mark George.
Mark R. George — President & Chief Executive Officer
Well, good morning, and thank you for joining us on today’s call. As you saw from this morning’s announcement, the focus of today’s NS earnings call has changed. Today is a historic day for America with the announcement of our country’s first transcontinental railroad. I’m actually in Omaha, Nebraska this morning, and I’m pleased to be joined by Jim Venna, Union Pacific’s Chief Executive Officer; Jennifer Hayman, the CFO; Jason Zampi, Norfolk Southern Chief Financial Officer. So let me ask Jim to start the call by laying out our vision.
James Vena — Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Mark. On behalf of the Union Pacific Board and leadership team, I am honored to be with you today to discuss our agreement to combine Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern in a combination valued at over $250 billion. This is a historic transformative moment for our companies, our customers and our great nation. Together, we will create America’s first transcontinental railroad.
With this transaction, we will generate significant value for our stakeholders and for all Americans. It builds upon President Abraham Lincoln’s vision of a transcontinental railroad from nearly 165 years ago and will usher in a new era of American innovation. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern are two of the strongest operating railroads in the US with a combined 360 years of franchise history.
Generations of railroaders at both of our companies have helped build America into what it is today and today’s railroaders will demonstrate that there is no better combined team to deliver America’s first transcontinental railroad. Ask you to turn to Slide 4, lays out how this new seamless single-line service supports US growth. Railroads are the backbone of the US economy. We power industries, connect communities and deliver the materials that build homes, grocery stores, factories and cities. You name it, and the railroad likely moved it.Moving freight safely, efficiently and affordably keeps American manufacturing — manufacturing competitive and neighborhoods growing. To that end, the United States has the best freight transportation system in the world and this transaction will make it even stronger.
You’re transcontinent Nanto Railroad is the right next step toward achieving that goal. Combining Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern to unite the nation from east to West transforms the US supply-chain and transportation landscape. Our single-line service will create new routes and increase access across this nation, making freight rail transportation a cost-effective option for more American shippers. By eliminating interchanges, customers’ products will reach their destination faster, increased speed and reliability combined with lower freight costs per mile makes rail a more attractive option than truck. And with improved service reliability, we will lower our customers’ inventory and equipment costs with reduced cycle times.
The impacts of this transaction for American communities can’t be overstated. Our merger will reduce highway congestion and road maintenance burdens on American taxpayers. One intermodal train removes more than 550 trucks from the highway and is 75% more fuel-efficient than truck.
We pay to maintain our networks with focused infrastructure investment to support long-term growth and the safety of our operations. Together, this will enhance supply-chain reliability, support the industrial renaissance and make US manufacturing more competitive and accessible. Rail investments have a broad impact on economic development and job creation. Importantly, Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern are aligned. All of our Union employees who have a job today will have jobs tomorrow in our merged company. And a company that is growing its business and spurring economic development creates even more jobs. The ultimate impact of investment in our combined company infrastructure, talent and technology will be immense for American communities and businesses nationwide. Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern are committed to finding new ways to drive growth, benefit customers and enhance rail safety and competitors. I could go on and on, but I’ll pause and ask Mark for his perspective on this historic transaction. Mark?
Mark R. George — President & Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Joe. It is a historic day, not just for our companies, but for our industry, our country and all of our stakeholders. This combination brings together two teams with a shared commitment to advancing our nation’s economy, connecting people, strengthening our communities and building a stronger, more competitive America. Both Norfolk Southern and Union Pacific have been an integral part of our country’s growth for generations. With this transaction, we will extend Norfolk Southern’s rich nearly 200-year history alongside Union Pacific, unlocking new opportunities for our customers in our next chapter.
We’ve strengthened our operations and have been disciplined in the execution of our strategy, running an efficient network, improving processes and driving excellence. We’re championing safety and continuous improvement at every level and have fostered the discipline to continue delivering a service product that’s not only competitive, it’s compelling for our customers. And with the leaders we have and processes we’re instilling, we are now demonstrating network resilience in the face of challenges.
In these efforts, they have led us to today a turning point for the industry that’s only possible because of the team commitment, strength and belief in our mission. I’m so proud of everything we’ve accomplished and I want to commend our dedicated leadership team and our whole organization for they’ve all done wonderful things to deliver results.
By joining together with Union Pacific, this transaction will allow us to build-on the momentum that we’ve created and to really create America’s true first transcontinental railroad, delivering more for our customers, our shareholders, our people and the communities we call home. The ability to deliver for all our stakeholders simultaneously was central to my initial conversations with Jim. We share a vision for the rail industry where traffic grows, customers have faster, more reliable shipping, our nation’s economy expands with less emissions and importantly, our people continue to be central to our business. Not only is this an opportunity to strengthen the supply-chain, but one where we can deliver something no one else can, a freight railroad that unites our nation.
Joining our over 19,000 mile network and powerful franchise with those of Union Pacific will allow us to deliver a more effective and competitive railroad, creating compelling benefits for this iconic American industry and our workers. We will create opportunities for our employees as we grow by delivering reliable and timely service for our customers. We will build value for shareholders who will benefit from both the opportunity to participate in significant upside as holders of the combined organization, which we believe will be a must-own large-cap stock and should trade at a robust multiple. We will unlock potential for the American economy today and well into the future, and we look-forward to all that we will accomplish together. Jim?
James Vena — Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Mark. Combining our two great companies creates an impressive rail network as laid out on Slide 5. The Union Pacific Norfolk Southern combined network supported by over 52,000 railroaders will span 50,000 plus miles across 43 states, reaching nearly every corner of the United States.
It connects major manufacturing centers, agricultural region and population center. It also unlocks rail options for shippers in-markets where today’s rail network Network is currently inefficient, such as gateway operations and connecting short-distance markets on both sides of the Mississippi River. Our combined network will connect 10 gateways with Mexico and Canada as well as over 100 ports, opening strong international trade routes and supporting local and cross-border economic growth. Importantly, single-line service reduces interchange points and creates increased fluidity and optionality. It reduces strain at our gateways and interchange points, optimizes handoffs and then eliminates rubber tire interchanges. Today, around 1 million carloads interchange between our two companies. In the future, those million carloads will immediately see a 24 to 48 hour improvement in their transit time. That combination of faster service and greater market reach is powerful, making our transcontinental railroad an attractive choice for both current and future customers. Our network will be strengthened by continued capital investment. In 2025, that combined investment will total around $5.6 billion. These investments are critical to support safety service and operational efficiency improvements, and we’re committed to continue those investments to support US economic growth going-forward. Now turning to Slide 6. Ultimately, we believe this new combined network enhances competition and increases growth opportunities are in the public interest, benefiting all stakeholders. For us, this isn’t just about winning versus the other rails, which we will, but it also competing against other modes of transportation, whether that’s barge, truck or pipeline to name a few. It’s providing a transportation product that competes for broader industrial development and supports reshoring manufacturing growth in the US. Our unified transcontinental offering will allow us to compete more effectively with Canadian transcontinental rails, making US ports more competitive and winning back US freight volume in American jobs. With route optionality that creates direct routes east and west will help our customers win in their marketplaces. Single-line service opens up more customer options to and from underserved areas in the Ohio Valley and the Mississippi River watershed by connecting around 100 ports and 10 international gateways, we enable more efficient and cost-effective supply chains. Stepping back, the combined network will capitalize on the strength of Union Pacific’s West Coast ports and Norfolk Southern’s East Coast ports. Merging the strength of both companies, intermodal networks facilitates the capture of international trade volumes and domestic truck conversion. The beauty of US ports is the population centers around the ports as well as the inland reach, thus making our ports a more natural destination when paired with excellent service and a wide portfolio of destinations. Slide 7 summarizes a lot of what you’ve heard so-far and why we see this combination as a win for our customers. A couple of things I’d add. First is a question of enhancing competition. One-way we’re considering addressing this is through a proven framework we’ve employed in the past. It’s a framework used by Union Pacific for select traffic in the Pacific Northwest. The results have demonstrated that it has enhanced competition while supporting Carload growth that has outpaced the market. While more details will come through this STB application process, we believe it will be a win for our customers. A significant note, with this combination, fewer than 20 customers will go from having two rail providers to just one and we intend to provide a competitive alternative. Second, the deployment of state-of-the-art technology like Union Pacific’s net control and systems along with Norfolk Southern’s advanced algorithms that drive digital train inspection will create a safer, more efficient overall network, while enhancing customer experience through shipment visibility and tracking. Now imagine steel moving from Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania to Colton, California seamlessly and then copper moving from Arizona to the East with fewer touch points, increased speed and better customer tracking capability. The possibilities are endless and only increases my excitement about what’s possible. I’ll now hand it over to Jason to transition the conversation to the financial aspects of the deal. Jason?
Jason A. Zampi — Executive Vice President & Chief Financial Officer
Thanks, Jim. This proposed combination creates both scale and balance as laid out on Slide 8. Based on 2024 pro-forma results, our combined company has revenue of $36.4 billion, EBITDA of roughly $18 billion and an operating ratio of 62.1%. This scale combined with operational discipline positions us to capture greater value as rail demand continues to grow. And specifically with the combined operating ratio, there is clearly room for continued improvement.
Together, UP and NS handle more than 14 million carloads a year across numerous business lines within our industrial, bulk, intermodal and automotive segments. You’ve heard both companies talk separately about how this diversity helps us navigate the ups and downs of economic cycles. This merger only increases our combined company’s ability to weather any storm. Importantly, this isn’t just about being a bigger railroad. It’s about being a better railroad, one that is more efficient and creates more value for our customers.
Now, I’ll turn it over to Jennifer to walk-through the financial opportunity our proposed combination creates. Jennifer?
Jennifer Hayman — Chief Financial officer
Thank you, Jason, and good morning. Slide nine provides a one-stop shop for the transaction details. Jim has already touched on a few of these points, but let me highlight that under the proposed terms, Norfolk Southern shareholders will receive one share of Union Pacific stock and $88.82 cash for each Norfolk Southern common share.
This represents an $85 billion headline value-based on Union Pacific’s July 16 unaffected closing price and a 25% premium to Norfolk Southern’s 30 trading day volume-weighted average price. In terms of the roughly $20 billion cash portion required for the transaction, I should point out that there will be no voting trust, so no funding will occur until the transaction closes.
At close, we will fund that through a combination of cash we generate between now and closing as well as issuance of debt. As part of that, both Union Pacific and Norfolk 7 have suspended share repurchases, but will maintain their respective dividends. For that premium, we are creating a transcontinental railroad that unlocks $2.75 billion in synergies as illustrated on Slide 10.
We see a clear path to achieving these annualized synergies in the third year post-close represented by both revenue growth and productivity. On the revenue side, synergies of $1.75 billion will be heavily driven by modal conversion as single-line service makes rail more competitive versus truck. As Jim laid out, lanes such as the Pacific Northwest to the watershed and Southern California to the Ohio Valley provide great opportunities to win new business. Beyond intermodal, we see opportunities such as finished vehicles moving nationwide, food and beverage shipments traveling west to east, industrial chemicals moving from the Gulf to eastern markets and tires and steel rod moving east to west.
As you saw on Slide 8, both companies bring a diverse business mix to this transaction, which gives us a wide aperture to pursue growth opportunities. Cost synergies of $1 billion will result from improved safety and efficiency through shared best practices, reduction of material costs, enhanced asset utilization, routing efficiencies and rationalization of back-office costs. For example, through just the optionality of single-line service will increase locomotive productivity and generate fuel savings through less idle time at gateways. We’ll gain workforce productivity through fewer car touches as well as driving the culture of operational excellence across an expanded footprint.
To support these cost synergies, we expect to spend roughly $2 billion in incremental capital to integrate the networks. Finally, the deployment of state-of-the-art technology from both rails will create a safer, more efficient overall network. Looking then to Slide 11, this transaction yields very compelling financial profile for the combined company as the $2.75 billion in synergies achieved by year three represents more than $30 billion of value-creation.
We expect adjusted EPS to be accretive early in the second year post-close with high single-digit accretion thereafter as the synergies are realized. Annual free-cash flow will grow from a 2024 pro-forma combined $7 billion to an estimated $12 billion by 2029 with synergies, reflecting 10% annual growth. With this strong cash generation, we will rapidly delever our balance sheet. In fact, we expect to close the transaction with a debt-to-EBITDA of around 3.3 times and be back to around 2.8 times by 2028, less than two years post-close.
With our commitment to prioritizing the balance sheet and discussions with the rating agencies, we would expect to maintain our current A-rated status. The more than 60% increase in run-rate free-cash flow supports our balanced capital allocation policy, reinvesting in our combined network, rewarding our shareholders with a competitive dividend and resuming share Share repurchases in 2028. By year three, we expect to be repurchasing more than $10 billion in shares annually. Bottom-line, we are very pleased with what this deal represents for both Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern shareholders. We see it as a win today and a win for the future. I’ll now turn it back to Jim to discuss the next steps and wrap-up.
James Vena — Chief Executive Officer
Thank you, Jennifer. Obviously, this is the first major step-in this process. I’m in on Slide 12. In terms of the timing and path to completion, the transaction is subject to review and approval by the Surplus Transportation Board with its statutory timeframe. We at Union Pacific do not take steps lightly. We think them through. We make sure we have a strong case, we make sure that the team is ready-to-move ahead, and we’re very comfortable with where we are as we move ahead.
As I mentioned earlier, our robust plans not only preserve but also enhance competition and will be filed with the Surface Transportation Board in due course. For all the reasons you’ve heard today, we’re confident that transportation — the transaction serves the public interest and meets relevant requirements.
The transaction is also subject to approval by both Union Pacific and Norfolk Southern shareholders. I want to be very clear here. We are both deeply committed to making this as seamless and integration process as possible. We understand that we need to avoid distracting our organizations during this approval process in a way that impacts our customers. And once the transaction is complete, we need to move as quickly as possible to deliver the benefits our stakeholders expect.
Now turning to Slide 13. The transaction of this size and scope won’t be easy to execute. We understand that. Key is having the right strategy and the right team to execute it. At Union Pacific, our safety, service and operational excellence strategy has propelled our company to industry best. We’ve made significant safety improvements, taken service to all-time best levels and the operational efficiency and financial performance speaks for itself as we reported just a short-time ago.
A big part of our strategy success has been maintained a buffer of resources to handle the fluctuations of railroading. As we implement this transcontinental railroad, that buffer strategy will remain imperative. At Norfolk Southern, their thoroughbred culture has driven significant improvements over the past year-plus. They have great momentum across those same key elements of safety, service and efficiency. It demonstrates that our companies are aligned on the fundamentals of running a great railroad. With the collective talent of both organizations combined with a winning strategy, I’m confident that we’ll deliver for our stakeholders. Mark, I appreciate your thoughts on the cultural alignment before we wrap it up.
Mark R. George — President & Chief Executive Officer
Sure, Jim. However, you label this strategy, it comes down to the core fundamentals. And from the start of the transaction, it was evident that the DNA of our companies were very similar. We have our core NS spirit values, which represent safety, performance, integrity, respect, innovation and teamwork. And those are very closely aligned with Union Pacifics.
And we expect to combine the best of both companies’ programs and technology to set a new bar for rail safety and performance, advancing our shared commitment to keeping rail the safest way to move freight over land. And I just want to reiterate a point that Jim made earlier, both companies are committed to a seamless integration. We understand that we need to continue to provide our customers with a high-level of service throughout this process, avoiding distraction and disruptions.
We’ll have plenty of time to do thorough integration planning while the transaction is under review and post-closing. And we commit. We’re going to put the appropriate resources and time in-place to assure that we do this the right way. Both companies have an immense amount of pride in their histories and how they’ve shaped our great nation. And if we use that as a foundation while focusing on what we can control, I’m confident that these groups of railroaders will come together to win for our customers, our communities, our nation and each other. Jim?
James Vena — Chief Executive Officer
Thanks, Mark. Now wrapping up on Slide 14, it summarizes the unprecedented benefits of this merger. This is a historic milestone for the entire rail industry and for America. This transaction will unite the nation connecting businesses, consumers and communities. It will accelerate growth, enhance competition, spur economic development and employment and unleash economic innovation. Built on our safety service and operational excellence strategy, we will accelerate improvements in the safety, service and efficiency of our combined network. And through significant synergies in free-cash flow generation, we will deliver enhanced shareholder value.
Our great companies have deep roots in spurring the industrial revolution of the past. With this combination, we take the next step-in driving the economic growth and prosperity of the future. That concludes our prepared remarks. We will now open the lines to answer your questions. Thank you.
Questions and Answers:
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, if you do have any questions at this time, please press followed by one on your touchstone phone. You will then hear a prompt that your hand has been raised. Should you wish to decline from the polling process, please press star followed by two. And if you’re using your speakerphone, you will need to lift the handset first before pressing any keys. Please go-ahead and press star one now if you have any questions. And your first question will come from Scott Group at Wolfe Research. Please go-ahead.
Mark R. George
Good morning, Scott. How are you this morning? Good to talk to you twice in a week.
Scott Group
Hey, thanks. Pretty historic day. I have a question on deal mechanics and then maybe just a bigger-picture question. Why no Voting Trust? And then can you give us the break fee if there’s a superior offer that sort of mechanic stuff? And then Jim, just bigger-picture, I know you don’t have an operating ratio target, but when you think about UP standalone and now this combination, in your mind as the combined railroad, is this a better margin railroad? And as you think about like $2.75 billion of synergies, is that inclusive of any potential regulatory concessions?
James Vena
Well, Scott, listen, thank you very much. I’ll answer the second question in a minute, but I’ll pass it over to Jennifer, you can talk about the breakup fee and why no voting trust.
Jennifer Hayman
Yes. So I’ll start with the voting trust, Scott. We actually believe that a voting trust would complicate and potentially delay the transaction. So we want to go to the STB with a fully developed merger application that allows us to really lay out the fundamentals of this merger and provide all the necessary detail that supports our position that this will not only enhance competition, but is absolutely in the public interest.
And so again, with the timeframe relative to regulatory approval, we also think it’s in the best interest to not fund it fully two years before we would have to, which would obviously be required as part of the voting trust. In terms of the deal and the breakup fee, it is $2.5 billion is what’s set for that. Certainly, we don’t expect to be invoking that. We’re very confident in this transaction.
James Vena
So, Scott, listen, I’m going to broaden a little bit the question that you’ve asked, okay, because I think this is real important to understand and I sort of said it a little bit in the prepared remarks. So when I came back to work at the Union Pacific after I was away for sabbatical for a short-time, I came back with a list of things.
I carry around a black folder that I put my thoughts in on the back of it and before I showed up I said to myself, there’s something missing in the United States of America and that is truly a transcontinental railroad and we limit the capability of customers and manufacturing and supply chains in the US because of the handoffs and what we do.
The difficulty was always could you ever get the deal and have a partner? And I tell you, it’s a partner with Mark and his entire team. We spent all of yesterday together, just crossing Ts and dotting eyes. But at the end-of-the day, it was one of my goals. But of course, time and place is important is do you have the right fundamentals? And what I like is, I like the fundamentals and what Norfolk Southern is doing and I trust that they are going to deliver as we go through this timeframe to get to the STB. And the STB is if they look at it, which I think they will in a very systematic, is it better for customers, is it better for the country? Is it better to help people win in the marketplace, they’ll approve this. We’re very confident of that or we wouldn’t have taken the step.
So Mark and I had a little discussion. I always had it on the list of things to do and we started the ball rolling. And when I look at how we got here, you need to make sure that the fundamentals of both railroads are in the right place. And I’m telling you, the fundamentals I know and I spoke about in Norfolk Southern are in the right place. The fundamentals for Union Pacific are also in a great place. We have a strong Team right across-the-board, and you need that and make sure that you have it. I’m very comfortable with Jennifer who is sitting next to me with Eric, with Kenny and Mark is absolutely and I’m going to ask him to jump-in and give his view of this in a minute. So we have the right team. Then at the end of it is where are we time and place does this make sense? And we are absolutely sure that when everybody stops and thinks about this in a logical fundamental pattern, it is compelling. It’s a case that’s compelling for us to move ahead. Now you asked me about or I don’t give or all I’ll tell you is, my goal is always being the best-in the industry. And you can go back to when I was at Canadian National, okay, as a Chief Operating Officer, and we had great operations and we’ve continued that at Union Pacific. We expect to be the best-in the industry and that’s what we’re going to drive towards and make sure that we’re still the best and be able to return the most — the best service to our customers. In the last quarter, Union Pacific service-level was close to 100% on both the manifest and intermodal, and that is service that we measure against what we delivered — what we agreed to with our customers. So high-service, great efficiency, build-on that for these combined companies, I’m telling you, I’m very comfortable. I do not make decisions lightly and I gave it a lot of thought and the entire team did. And absolutely, Mark, you did the same thing. Mark, any comments to add to what I just said?
Mark R. George
No, I mean, we’ve spent quite a while talking about this and I think the most important part was fit and whether the fit was there. And I do believe like I mentioned in the prepared remarks, culture was very much aligned. I think our joint mission and vision for our country is 100% aligned. This is good for America to try to link our networks, independent networks, we can only go so-far independently. And let’s face it, this industry has faced contraction in deck over the last couple of decades in terms of volume growth.
We’ve been losing share to truck, and this is one-way to reverse that trend. So I’m supremely confident that we’ve got the right partnership, that we’re culturally — culturally aligned and that we’re going to execute brilliantly on integration to ensure that there’s no disruption.
James Vena
Thanks, Scott. Appreciate it. Sorry for the long answer.
Scott Group
All right. Appreciate it, guys. Thank you.
Operator
Next question will be from Jonathan Chappelle at Evercore ISI. Please go-ahead.
Jonathan Chappell
Good morning, Jonathan. Good morning, Jim. Thank you. Good morning, Mark. Jim, you’re going to get a lot of questions that you had on Thursday that you couldn’t answer. So let’s start with the DC environment. You’ve said very clearly, you’re not going to take steps lightly. You thought this through. I assume you’ve had some conversations with the administration, with the Department of Justice, with the STB. What can you tell us about the feedback you received from those initial conversations? What have you heard about adding the fifth member to the STB? And how does that fit into the timeline that you’ve laid out?
James Vena
Well, as the largest railroad in the United States of America, we have continuous discussion and dialogue with all facets of government and regulatory agencies in Washington. We continue to do that. So we would not have taken the step if we don’t feel comfortable that we can deal with any of the issues that come forward. And that’s the best way to describe any discussions we’ve had. And we’ll continue to make sure that everybody understands what we’re doing and how we move ahead.
Jonathan Chappell
Do you know anything about the fifth member, the timing there? No, you probably know more than me on that. So if you know something, let me know.
Mark R. George
I think there’s quite a backlog nominee. So it may take a little bit of time. That’s kind of what we’re hearing, but.
Jonathan Chappell
Thank you very much. Mark. Thanks, Jim.
Mark R. George
Thank you.
James Vena
Thank you.
Operator
Next question will be from Brian Assenbeck at JPMorgan. Please go-ahead.
Mark R. George
Morning, Brian.
James Vena
Good morning, Brian.
Brian Ossenbeck
Hey, good morning. Good morning, guys. It’s in for and Jason as well. Thanks for taking the questions. Congrats on the announcement today. I wanted to ask a little bit more about strategy to grow and enhance competition. So I guess two-parts. First one, do you have a view on intermodal service combining these two networks? Is it still something where you need IMCs where you provide more on your rail own boxes? And then the second one, I guess, is really thinking through the approval process, how are you going to be able to come up, improve and quantify that this — these benefits are achievable through the merger and not through some other means. Thank you.
James Vena
Well, listen, you know what, Mark, why don’t you start on the intermodal? You guys do a spectacular job of that and you guys have — I’m always envious when I look at how well you guys have done in that. So why don’t you talk about the intermodal piece?
Mark R. George
Look, what’s — here’s an interesting thing. With our interchange with UP today, 95% of our interchange is over 2,000 miles, meaning only 5% is under 2,000 miles. We see an enormous opportunity to grow in lanes where we would be in that 1,000 mile or 1,500 mile range. So that’s just one example and that kind of touches upon the entire watershed story. So again, you’ve got this interference in the center of the country with these interchanges that creates friction.
And you’ve got 500 mile moves, a 1,000 mile moves on each side of the Mississippi and when you’re going from west of it to east or east to west, it rail is never even contemplated because it’s just too much hassle, too much extended time and frankly too much cost. So these are the areas where we see tremendous growth. And that’s part of what you see in the revenue synergy numbers. So we’re supremely confident as we look at the growth. And I think Jim would tell you the revenue synergies here we’re supremely confident in.
James Vena
You bet. What I could add, Scott, if you had a case where we was not thought through and was not compelling, you’d have a hard time-being able to get anything done. When we look at what this combination delivers, it delivers truly better service for our customers. Think about this, you’ve been following us, Brian, for a long-time and I could go on, this is one of those whiteboard exercises that we could be at for two hours.
But just to give you a little snippet, you know when a railcar moves non-intermodal and it needs to go from east to west or west to east, we can get across the country. We get across all the way from L.A. To Dallas in less than less than two days with an intermodal train. It’s a little longer with a freight train. We will remove touch points and every time there’s a touch point, you have 24 to 36 hours even at the best while you’re switching the railcar. That’s gone.
On-top of that, at the interchange points where we used to stop and hand-off, those are removed. So every customer that today, when we are finally approved and that’s what the STB is going to look at is what’s the advantage, how is service, is it better for America and what they’ll look at is we’re going to cut a day or two-off of every transit time. That means less cost for our customers. They’ll have to have less cars, less leases, less — the congestion on the railroad will be less because there will be less railcars that are needed to move the same amount of business. That’s something we’ve done at UP already within our own network.
The amount of car loads, okay, cars per carload that we operate is improved by 20%. The velocity has improved and this combination moves it. So given all that, I trust what the STB Chair has said that he wants to live up to commitments and timeline and make sure that the process of anything that they look at is clean and that’s why we’re very confident that we’ll be in the timeline unless we make a mistake in what the information that they require to look at our transaction. But I’m very confident that we’ve done the homework and we’re in the right place.
Mark R. George
Thank you. Thank you, Brian.
Brian Ossenbeck
Thank you.
Operator
Next question is from Brandon at Barclays. Please go-ahead.
Mark R. George
Good morning, Brandon.
James Vena
Good morning.
Brandon Oglenski
Hi, good morning, everyone, and congrats on the deal, Jim and Mark and team. Jim or Mark, I mean, if we go back-in the history of STV merger approval or on approval. I think integration service risks come up quite a bit, especially with integrations that happened decades ago. Can you guys talk about some of your strategies to maybe mitigate those integration risks and what the service plan would be in the first year or two of the integration of the two networks? Thank you.
James Vena
Thank you. Mark, do you want to start?
Mark R. George
Yeah. I think like I mentioned in my prepared remarks, Brandon, we’re very aware of what led to the merger moratorium back-in 2000-2001 timeframe, and it was just a bunch of bad integrations. And we are committed to make sure that doesn’t happen in this case. And we’re going to use this two years of review process to start getting our teams together to talk and think and learn about the way our systems communicate, what platforms we want to be on to ensure that we have a running start when we close on this deal in two years’ time. And we’re not going to turn any switches on unless we’re 100% confident that we’re going to be disruption free. So we’re — we’ve learned — we’re learning from the lessons of the past and you have our commitments there. So I agree with Mark 100%. We’re going to be very prudent in how we do things. But you know what, words are easy and people can talk about things and what — and say this is what they’re going to do. I’m not into talking about things. I’m into showing and then being able to replicate that. So we shut-down, everybody remembers and we talked lots about our implementation of net control. That changed that is the fundamental system that runs our railroad, keeps track of every railcar movement, sets up for billing and we shut it down, replaced the old one with net control and it was a non-event. It was like nobody knew it actually happened. I was hoping I’d get more questions and give us a little pat on the back for Rahul and his entire IT team about how well Union Pacific did, but I never got any positive remarks from anybody or Rahul still waiting for some. Welcome to yeah, exactly.
James Vena
So at the end of it, I could go on the things. But fundamentally, the fundamental strategy that we are going to partake in this is having a buffer of resources so that we do not get ourselves in a place where we can’t handle because you’re always — it’s an outdoor sport. You’re always going to be confronted with something and you need to make sure that you have a buffer of locomotives and a buffer of assets and a buffer of people at the right level so that you can win.
So I’m very confident. I really am that we will take it, like Mark said, take the right steps, don’t get too carried away. Don’t think you — I don’t know Norfolk Southern like I know Union Pacific. And if anybody thinks first day we’re going to go out there and start slashing and burning, that’s not going to happen. We need to learn and get the team together to build the right plan that wins. I’m being very verbose this morning. I think we’re going to have to cut-off some of these. I’m going to try to do three word answers from now on.
Mark R. George
Thank you, Brandon.
Brandon Oglenski
Thank you both. Congrats.
Operator
Next question is from Sadi Shamoon at BMO Capital Markets. Please go-ahead.
Mark R. George
Hey, Faddy.
James Vena
How’s everything in Canada?
Fadi Chamoun
It’s great up here, Jim, we miss you. So I want to say congrats on the deal first and just a follow-up on an earlier question. Does the synergy numbers and cash-flow numbers that you’ve outlined in any way account for any potential concession in them. My main question though is, you know, there’s two-ways this could have gone kind of transcontinentally and I understand what you outlined in terms of team alignment and culture, but are there other network synergy consideration and mix, commodity mix or kind of mix consideration then went into why would NS and UP make the best transcontinental combination versus potentially another one? And lastly, if Jennifer can give us what’s the gross revenue number underlying the 1.75?
Jennifer Hayman
So I’m probably not going to give you that gross number,, but I will tell you that the synergy numbers themselves are gross synergies. So 1.75 billion is what we’re looking at for revenue. And as you heard Mark state and you’re hearing the enthusiasm from the group, we think that there’s more opportunity there and then $1 billion on the cost side. So that’s that part.
In terms of the returns and the cash flows that we talked about, we have taken into account the fact that there will likely need to be some concessions made. We’re not going to size that. So when you hear us talk about the economics of the deal, know that that’s taken that into consideration, but the synergies that we’re talking about are on a gross basis.
James Vena
And Patty, you said YNS, I think they’re a great company. Mark, why Union Pacific?
Mark R. George
I think we’ve got the largest interchange, don’t we? Million parloads of interchange, you bet you. We got really strong cultural alignment. So it’s a beautiful complementary fit.
James Vena
You bet. Thanks, Patty.
Fadi Chamoun
Thank you.
Operator
Thank you. Next question will be from Tom Wadowitz at UBS. Please go-ahead.
Thomas Wadewitz
Yeah, good morning and Jim and Mark. Yeah, congratulations on the deal. Let’s see. I wanted to ask if you could help frame a little bit more on the revenue synergies. And then I don’t know if you think like there’s more likely to be upside on cost or revenue synergies. But I think you mentioned Canadian opportunities and taking business from Canadian ports, you mentioned the watershed markets. Can you give any more perspective like how — how large are those as pieces of the $1.75 billion? Is it — is watershed the biggest piece? Is Intermodal the biggest piece, how much is Canadian ports? Just any maybe high-level perspective on how you think about the bigger opportunities within that $1.75 billion number? Thank you.
James Vena
You know what, you did a great job of sort of framing the opportunity. You really did. You covered it all. So let me just say this is, at Union Pacific, we have always been very prudent about what we put out for goals, okay. And Jennifer is not sitting close enough, she’s worried that I’m going to say blow by. So I’m not going to say blow-by.
But what I will say is we’re prudent on what we see for revenue synergies. And we’ve done a detailed study and I’m very comfortable that we’re going to deliver what we said because we’re prudent people. Mark, anything you want to add?
Mark R. George
Yeah. And I think, again, we talked about the watershed opportunities. You’ve got markets like we can really attack in the watershed like Houston to Charlotte, for example, Dallas to Columbus, Laredo, Denver to Columbus. There’s an awful lot of opportunity here where there’s virtually no rail moves, it’s all truck moves and those are big markets we can start to exchange. So there’s — I think there’s opportunity well, well, well in excess of the numbers there, but we’ve made estimates and approximations that get us to the 1.75. But frankly, like Jim is saying and I’m saying, there’s a lot of confidence in that number and most likely a lot of upside.
James Vena
And on the Canadian side, just a detail — detail a little bit about competition and why this is great for America and great for the industry and great for customers. Intermodal comes in at Halifax, comes in Montreal, comes in Vancouver, comes in at Prince Rupert and single-line haul they have the Canadians to be able to come into the US deep into the US and deliver. And we’re going to be competitive on that. We’re going to be able to come out-of-the East Coast ports and the West Coast ports and compete. That’s what we want to do.
All we care about is let’s get — let whoever has the best service, best price, best model to win. And I think it’s wonderful for us moving ahead. And then you have to look at the fact that you just can’t really — the — our opportunity to take share against long-haul truck is really amplified here when you start to eliminate the friction of interchanges. So eliminating a lot of those friction points and being able to build blocks and move traffic without an interchange is going to help us take share from truck on the long-haul side.
Thomas Wadewitz
Thank you very much. One component within that, is it primarily intermodal that we’re talking about or is it a big mix of Carload as well. It’s Carload as well.
James Vena
Yeah, it’s Carload as well.
Mark R. George
Absolutely right. Why we describe the touch points.
James Vena
Yeah.
Thomas Wadewitz
Yeah. Okay. Thank you.
Mark R. George
Thank you.
Operator
Next question will be from Jason Seidal at TD Cowen. Please go-ahead.
Jason Seidl
Thank you, operator. Jim, Mark and team, congratulations. I wanted to dive a little bit more into the synergy side of things and talk about the conversions. Clearly, the rail industry has lost share to the truck market over the last couple of years. How much has been lost, at least in your estimation in the longer length of haul lanes? And then when you look at the synergy numbers that you’ve given us, you know, does that assume that there’s no reaction by the other two to create another transcontinental railroad to compete with you or is that on a combined basis as well?
James Vena
Okay. So listen, the truck market is huge. And we’re not saying that we have the capability to take trucks out of everywhere. There’s certain length of haul where the truck has an advantage. There’s certain types of business that need a truck. And I think we’re mutually we can work together to win even more business and help with the transformation that’s happening on the industrial side in the United States Of America right now. So the way we look at it is the opportunity is there for us to be able to sell that model and end-to-end closer to what the customers have, extend the reach and not have that handoff. I give the example for people that aren’t railroaders. I know I’ve read a lot of your articles lately. So you’re a railroader, just like I am, okay and at the end-of-the day is how would you like to have in the United States of America that if you cross the Mississippi and you were flying from one end-of-the country to the other, you’d have to get on the plane in New York, get off in Chicago at O’Hare, change planes, change carrier and go to another airline to go to LA. That’s what we do.
Mark R. George
And book two tickets to do it. Book two tickets to do different companies. Exactly. So — but that’s how that’s how we treat freight in our country. Our customers. So it’s pretty bad. Oh, sorry about that I apologize. Mine’s Omaha. It’s very simple to get to thank you very much for the question.
Fadi Chamoun
Thanks guys.
Operator
Thank you. Next question will be from David Vernon at Bernstein. Please go-ahead.
David Vernon
Hey guys, thanks for taking the questions. First of all, congratulations and Jim for what it’s worth. I’m a big fan of that control. So good job on that.
James Vena
Good morning. Good morning, David.
David Vernon
So with the revenue synergy number of 1.75, I know, Jennifer, you said it’s a mix of car load and intermodal. Can you kind of put a finer point on what percentage is carload versus intermodal? And should we be thinking about this as all sort of incremental industry — incremental revenue to the railroad industry? Or is there also some diversion contemplated in the revenue synergy number? Thanks.
Jennifer Hayman
Okay. Yeah, I appreciate the question, but you know that I’m not going to give you that level of specificity. But you heard in Jim’s remarks, I mean, we’re expecting to convert traffic, certainly bring new business onto the rail. That’s a very big part of this transaction, but we also think it will position us very well competitively against our peers as well.
James Vena
Jason, anything to add like they’ve kept you — we kept you out of this discussion. Anything else?
Jason A. Zampi
No, I think Jennifer hit it really well. A lot of opportunities on the revenue side. And I think we haven’t talked much about the cost side, but there’s great opportunities there. I think two of the biggest areas in our purchasing strategies as well as our technology and how we’ve got — how we combine that.
David Vernon
Yeah, excellent. Thank you very much for the question.
Operator
Thank you. Next question will be from Stephanie Moore at Jefferies. Please go-ahead.
Mark R. George
Good morning
Stephanie Moore
Hi,. Good morning. Thanks, everybody. Maybe just continuing on the conversation in terms of the revenue synergies. If you could talk a little bit about any conversations that you’ve had with customers on either leading into this deal or you plan to have coming out of this deal and how you’re maybe looking to just address any potential concerns around network issues post-close, but also to really come after and kind of take this incremental share from truck as well? Thank you.
Mark R. George
Let me just start by saying, I think we’re both coming from a wonderful position of strength right now when it comes to our service product. I know on the NS side, our net promoter score is as high as it’s ever been. Our customers are quite pleased. And I know we hear the same thing on the UP side with regard to customer satisfaction. So I think that customers generally are going to feel as though this is going to provide them more opportunity to leverage that good service product that they’ve been receiving and give us more share going-forward. Jim?
James Vena
Mark, you know what, I think you’ve done a great job of summarizing it the way we’re moving forward. So thank you very much for the question.
Operator
Thank you. Next question will be from Bascom Majors at Susquehanna. Please. Please go-ahead.
Mark R. George
Good morning, Bascom.
James Vena
Good morning.
Bascome Majors
Good morning. Good morning, Jim. Morning, Mark. Can we go back to an earlier question? I know we’ll get the detail from the lawyers on the origin story here when you filed the proxy for the shareholder votes. But how long have you been talking beyond the sketches in your notebook, Jim, more seriously here? And did you speak to the other Eastern Rail? And what ultimately pushed you into this one being the right one, the biggest one or two reasons. Thank you.
James Vena
Well, I tried to clear this up at the very start about how this — all this started. But Bascom, we have — we have been talking and our Board, and I’m absolutely sure and Mark can jump-in here. Our Board when we started to talk about this internally and what we saw that the benefits for customers’ benefits on service and benefits for America, my Board really went through it in detail to make sure that we were doing the right thing for Union Pacific.
And we wanted to also make sure that whoever our partner was the best partner for us that we saw the best capability moving forward. And that’s what we’ve done. And it took months, not years, but it took months from when we first talked. And I give Mark credit. He came in for a top to top and he said, how growth and what do you think and that sort of spurred something that we already had. So we’re talking months away. And when we started to work-through, I’m not going to get into any detail about any other conversations with anybody. That’s just not the way a business should be handled. But we work-through this, Mark and I hand-in-hand and their Boards and our Board and we’ve had a lot of discussions about this to get it to the finish line.
It’s amazing how much even with a small team, well, I guess maybe a little larger team than I thought originally that we had on it that it didn’t matter as soon as we said something in the last couple of weeks, something would come out. So we needed to move fast, which we did. Mark, anything you want to add?
Mark R. George
No, that’s — you nailed it.
James Vena
Okay. Thank you very much.
Mark R. George
Thank you,.
Operator
Thank you. Next question will be from Walters at RBC Capital Markets. Please go-ahead.
Walter Spracklin
Thanks very much. Good morning, everyone. Congrats on the on the deal. I want to start with the capex question. I know you mentioned your run-rate for free-cash flow. Can you give your implied annual capex run-rate that drives that free-cash flow? And Jennifer, did you say $2 billion in one-time capex to achieve the $2.75 billion in synergy. I guess my question there is, is where are the pass-through points here and how much investment has to be made-for you to avoid Chicago or push through within Chicago or not Chicago at all? Is there short lines that you’re contemplating to make that more fluid? Just curious as to the level of project investment that would be required to increase the connectivity between the two companies?
Jennifer Hayman
Well, thank you for that question. So first of all, we’re spending about $5.6 billion this year. That’s the combined between the two companies. I think you’ve seen us both be very disciplined in terms of our capex approach. We’ve been to invest for growth. We’re going to invest for safety and service and we will stick to those principles throughout the next 22 months or so that it takes to have this transaction approved and then going-forward, that’s always our first use of capital dollars, cash dollars is to invest it back into the business. That’s our best investment, as I think you know.
In terms of the $2 billion, we see that largely around tech integration because that will be extremely, extremely important to connect this net control system that we’ve just been talking about with NS’s system, leverage some of their systems with ours. Think about our progressive gate technology that you’ve heard us talk about. NS, I think has 50 plus intermodal ramps. That’s a huge opportunity for us to deploy that system and gain productivity through that deployment. And then, of course, you think about sighting extensions, when you think about the length of the trains that we run and how we want to seamlessly interchange and run those intermodal trains and manifest trains east-west, that will be an important part of that. Obviously, it’s still a lot of details to work-out there, but at a high-level, that’s really how we’re thinking about it.
James Vena
I think sometimes people are mistaken about the discussion about Chicago and Memphis and New Orleans and interchange points. So Chicago works for us, it really does. But you’re interchanging and you’re sitting there with railcars having to sit. What we’re talking about is, Walter is you take a train and you run it between our combined network and it’s just a crew change and you keep on-going. That’s the big benefit.
We don’t see a huge amount of business changing from Chicago to go to Memphis or go to New Orleans because the outer route miles just don’t add-up, don’t make a particle of sense. But if we can be smoother, cleaner the way we interchange Walter, that’s what is the real important piece of it. And on capital, everybody always thinks about capital and they think about it on what are we doing with locomotives, what are we doing with this? We have developed systems at Union Pacific and so has Norfolk Southern some really good systems that improve productivity and how we handle ties, how we give track work time, how we — how we replace rail and do that.
So those are the things that you combine and put together. And we’ve identified $2 billion that from technology and Everything else that we think to be able to combine these two companies and make sure that it’s truly operates seamlessly as a one railroad when we’re moving our products is in the best way possible. So we’ve done again a lot of work to get to that number. I’m hoping we can do it for 1.7. Thank you very much.
Walter Spracklin
Appreciate the time.
Operator
At this time, I would like to turn the call-back over to Jim.
James Vena
Thank you. Okay. Well, listen, everyone, thank you very much. We appreciate you all taking the time this morning to come in and join Mark and I. Mark, sorry for jumping on your — on your quarterly call. But at the end-of-the day, Mark, I’m very pleased with this combination, this merger. I’m really pleased to get through this in the next 22 months and get it done. And we will deliver a railroad that is like none other in North-America that provides the best service for customers, best cost-effective way to move products across the country. And I’m very excited. Mark, any last words?
Mark R. George
Yeah. Look, we’re really excited to be combining two great railroads, the two greatest in the country to create the first InterCon transcontinental railroad, I should say. And I’m extremely proud of where we’ve come just in these past few months-to arrive at a deal. And I think we’re going to transform industry. So we’re making history together here and thanks for joining us on the call.
James Vena
Thank you very much, everyone. Have a good day.
Operator
Thank you. Ladies and gentlemen, this does indeed conclude your conference call for today. Once again, thank you for attending. And at this time, we ask that you please disconnect your lines