Oxford Industries Inc (OXM) Q4 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Oxford Industries Inc (NYSE: OXM) Q4 2022 earnings call dated Mar. 23, 2023

Corporate Participants:

Jevon Strasser — Oxford Industries, Inc

Tom Chubb — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Scott Grassmyer — Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer

Analysts:

Ed Yruma — Piper Sandler — Analyst

Dana Telsey — Telsey Group — Analyst

Tracy Kogan — Citigroup — Analyst

Noah Zatzkin — KeyBanc — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Greetings and welcome to the Oxford Industries Fourth Quarter Fiscal 2022 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] As a reminder, this conference is being recorded. It is now my pleasure to introduce your host, Jevon Strasser. Please go ahead.

Jevon Strasser — Oxford Industries, Inc

Thank you and good afternoon. Before we begin. I would like to remind participants that certain statements made on today’s call and in the Q&A session may constitute forward-looking statements within the meaning of federal securities laws. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees, and actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied on the forward-looking statements. Important factors that could cause actual results of operations or our financial condition to differ are discussed in our press release issued earlier today and in documents filed by us with the SEC, including the risk factors contained in our Form 10-K. We undertake no duty to update any forward-looking statements.

During this call, we will be discussing certain non-GAAP financial measures. You can find a reconciliation of non-GAAP to GAAP financial measures in our press release issued earlier today which is posted under the Investor Relations tab of our website at oxfordinc.com. And now I’d like to introduce today’s call participants. With me today are Tom Chubb, Chairman and CEO, and Scott Grassmyer, CFO and COO. Thank you for your attention and now I’d like to turn the call over to Tom Chubb.

Tom Chubb — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. Jevon, good afternoon and thank you for joining us to hear about Oxford’s record performance in both the fourth quarter and the full fiscal 2022-year. We appreciate your time and interest in our company. As always, our enterprise purpose is to evoke happiness, our enterprise strategy is to own a portfolio of lifestyle brands that create sustained profitable growth, and our enterprise objective is to maximize long-term shareholder value. Each of these important elements were critical to our tremendous success on fiscal 2022. We stayed anchored to these fundamental precepts during the year and we are extremely proud of the incredible results achieved for our shareholders by our amazing team of people.

During fiscal 2022, we delivered growth in all brands and all channels of distribution. Total sales grew 24% year-over-year, driven overwhelmingly by organic growth, led by our largest brand Tommy Bahama which was up 22% for the year, followed by Lilly Pulitzer in our emerging brands group, which increased 13% and 29% respectively. The balance of the growth came from the addition of Johnny Was which we are proud to have added to our portfolio during the third quarter of 2022. We generated those topline growth, while simultaneously expanding both gross margin and operating margin. This combination produced record adjusted EPS of $10.88 for fiscal 2022, compared to our previous record of $7.99 in fiscal 2021, a 36% increase on a year-over-year basis. The results we achieved in 2022 are directly attributable to our focus on evoking happiness in our customers through our portfolio of lifestyle brands, when we succeed in our purpose, it creates the sustained profitable growth that ultimately drives long-term shareholder value.

So as always, our financial results are linked to our efforts to evoke happiness in our customers. We did an outstanding job on that front during fiscal 2022, as reflected by our customer KPIs. Not included — not including the newly added Johnny Was brand, we finished the year with 2.3 million active customers, compared to 2.1 million active customers at the end of 2021. We were able to grow our active customer numbers by focusing on and reinforcing the power of our lifestyle brands. A lifestyle brand is different from an ordinary brand. In an ordinary brand, you are creating a product. In a lifestyle brand, you’re creating a world or even a universe and when that world resonates with people, they want to fully engage with it and ultimately live in it. When that happens, people can be very loyal to you for a very long-time.

Across our portfolio, we did an excellent job of being crystal-clear about what each of our brand stands for and then delivering that brand message to both target audiences through inspiring marketing campaigns, differentiated and innovative product and uplifting hospitality in shopping experience. During 2022, we did a good child managing both the composition of our portfolio and driving performance across the businesses within our portfolio. From a composition perspective, 2022 was the first year that our portfolio consisted exclusively of lifestyle brands having divested Lanier Apparel during 2021. As previously noted, we were also pleased to have added Johnny Was, a California-based affordable luxury modern Bohemian lifestyle apparel brand.

From a portfolio performance perspective, as always, our priority in 2022 was on championing excellence in each key functional area necessary for lifestyle brands to succeed. A terrific example of this was our creation of a marketing center of excellence to serve as the in-house agency for our emerging brands and to leverage resources and knowledge across the enterprise. Other examples include the establishment of an enterprise-wide corporate responsibility department, the enhancement of our long-term information technology strategy aimed at maximizing our return on IT investments, the initiation of a project to optimize fulfillment across the enterprise and enhanced leveraging of human capital across the enterprise.

An essential part of driving shareholder value is sound capital allocation. Starting the year with $210 million in cash and short-term investments and generating substantial cash flow, we were able to invest $47 million in the future growth of our business, acquired the Johnny Was brand and all its potential for $270 million, buyback $92 million of our stock, completed $100 million repurchase program and returned an additional $35 million to shareholders in the form of dividends. We are proud to have been able to both return significant capital to our shareholders and make significant investments in the future growth of our business, all while maintaining a very strong balance sheet. We are equally excited about our plans for 2023. Once again, we plan to have good growth in all six of our brands. Gross margin should also expand modestly during the year.

Our plan for 2023 includes a topline that is almost 50% larger than it was in 2019, and operating margin that is almost double what it was in 2019, and operating income that is more than 2.5 times 2019’s level. These are impressive growth numbers. And to put it plainly, the size of our platform has not kept pace with the size of our portfolio of businesses or with the opportunity for future growth. Accordingly, and with in the operating margin target I just outlined, we are excited to invest aggressively during 2023 in people, systems, stores, Marlin Bars and fulfillment infrastructure to support our growing business.

Our willingness to invest is confirmation of our belief in our strategy and our future growth prospects. Our confidence in our ability to blend art and science to deliver wonderful brand experiences to our customers through A-plus product, A-plus distribution and A-plus communication has never been higher. The source of that confidence now and as always is our people. We are incredibly grateful to each and every one of them for all that they do. Thank you and I will now turn the call over to Scott for additional color on 2022 and our plans for 2023. Scott?

Scott Grassmyer — Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer

Thank you, Tom. We had a record-setting fourth quarter that capped a terrific 2022 driven by continued strength in all selling channels across the portfolio. Our operating groups executed very well during 2022 and delivered double-digit top-line growth within each brand. Our largest brand, Tommy Bahama, had another exceptional year with 22% top-line growth and 350 basis points of adjusted operating margin expansion to 19.6%. Lilly Pulitzer also achieved a 13% revenue growth and a 19.8% adjusted operating margin.

In 2022, consolidated net sales were $1.41 billion, which included $73 million of sales for Johnny Was, growing 24% above last year’s net sales of $1.14 billion, which included $25 million of sales from Lanier Apparel. The growth in our existing brands was strong across all of our full-price distribution channels, with increases of 20% in full-price bricks-and-mortar, 13% in full-price e-com, 29% in wholesale, and 14% in restaurants. Additionally, we also had increased sales of $22 million in Lilly Pulitzer e-commerce flash sales and 14% in our outlets.

Meanwhile, in addition to increasing sales, adjusted gross margin expanded 50 basis points over 2021 to 63.5%. We benefited from lower freight cost after experiencing very elevated freight rates in the second half of 2021. We saw additional gross margin benefit from a better mix of sales, which was influenced by the addition of the higher gross margin Johnny Was and the 2021 exit of lower gross margin Lanier Apparel. IMUs increased as well as we raised prices more than our cost increased. These items were partially offset by the impact of Lilly Pulitzer’s larger flash sales and lower gross margin on the flash sales in 2022 due to extremely lean inventory in 2021. We also had higher inventory markdowns in our emerging brands group during 2022 as we wound up with some excess inventory as inventory purchases outpaced demand.

Adjusted SG&A expenses were $684 million compared to $564 million last year. This increase was driven by increases in our existing businesses for employment cost, advertising cost, variable expenses and other expenses to fuel and support sales growth. Also, 2022 included $41 million of SG&A associated with the Johnny Was business for the 19-week period that we owned Johnny Was. While SG&A dollars increased, they did so at a slower pace relative to our sales growth leading to an 80 basis points leveraging of SG&A.

Result of all this yielded $234 million of adjusted operating income or 16.6% operating margin, compared to $174 million or 15.3% in 2021. With the improved adjusted operating income, driven by the strong results in Tommy Bahama and the operating income of Johnny Was for the 19 weeks since acquisition in September. This increased operating income was partially offset by a higher effective tax rate of 23% in 2022 and increased interest expense due to the borrowings associated with the acquisition of Johnny Was. Despite these offsets, we exhibited EPS expansion from an already excellent 2021. This led to adjusted EPS growth of 36% to $10..88.

I’ll now move on to the balance sheet beginning with inventory, but inventory is up 58% or $106 million year-over-year on a FIFO basis, we are in a good position to capture the sales momentum we’ve built. Inventory levels at the beginning of the year were lower than optimal as demand outpaced inventory purchases throughout 2021 and we were unable to accelerate inventory purchases to keep up with demand. Additionally, two other factors contributed to the inventory growth. $20 million of additional inventory from our acquisition of Johnny Was and the early receipt of about $20 million — excuse me, of about $25 million of incremental inventory to mitigate the risk of potential supply chain disruptions. Increased product costs raised inventory balances as well.

Our planned revenue growth, which is 45% over where we were in 2019, outpaces our FIFO inventory growth of 37% over the same time period, even with the early receipt of product. Further, with our strategic focus on core and key products in recent years, our inventory has a much greater mix of core and key product items rather than fashion items which reduces inventory risk.

From a liquidity standpoint, we had $9 million of cash and cash equivalents versus $210 million of cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments at the end of 2021. We used our cash and cash equivalents and short-term investments to help fund our acquisition of Johnny Was. After considering our robust cash flow from operations, the acquisition of Johnny Was, capital expenditures and other items as well as our $127 million of capital returned to shareholders through share repurchases and dividends, we had $119 million of borrowings outstanding under our $325 million revolving credit agreement at the end of 2022.

I’ll also note that earlier this month we amended our $325 million revolving credit agreement to extend the maturity of that agreement from July of 2024 to March of 2028. For all practical purposes, the asset-based loan agreement is consistent with the prior agreement other than extending the term converting LIBOR to SOFR plus 10 basis points, increasing the spreads on variable interest-rate borrowings by 25 basis points, and an increase in certain amount allowable for inclusion as eligible assets for the borrowing base calculation.

Over the last year, we have returned $127 million of capital directly to shareholders via dividends and open-market share repurchases. $92 million of this came from repurchasing 1 million shares during 2022, representing the December 2022 completion of our $100 million share repurchase program initiated in the fourth quarter of 2021. In total, we repurchased more than 60% of the outstanding shares from the commencement date of that program. Looking forward. I am pleased to announce that our Board of Directors declared a dividend of $0.65 per share for the first quarter of 2023 payable in April, which is an increase of 18% from the prior quarter’s dividend of $0.55.

I’ll now spend some time on our outlook for 2023. For the full year, we expect net sales to be between USD1.62 billion and USD1.66 billion, growth of 15% to 18%, compared to sales of $1.41 billion in 2022. The increased sales plan in the 53-week 2023 includes the benefit for the full year of Johnny Was as well as growth in our existing brands in the mid single-digit range, which consist of full priced brick-and-mortar and e-commerce channel growth generally flat wholesale and outlet store sales and lower commerce flash sales at Lilly Pulitzer, as Lilly Pulitzer has not having an e-commerce flash sale in the first-quarter of 2023.

We anticipate modest gross margin expansion in 2023 including the expectation of a higher proportion of full-price direct-to-consumer sales and a lower proportion of e-commerce flash and wholesale sales, and the inclusion of the higher gross margin Johnny Was business for the full-year 2023. These higher sales and improved gross margins are expected to be partially offset by increased SG&A, which is expected to grow at a rate higher than sales in 2023, as we invest in our business, including information technology spend in SG&A, higher employment cost, additional brick-and-mortar locations opening in 2023, and increased depreciation expense resulting from both IT spend and brick-and-mortar locations. Considering all these items, we expect that operating margin will decrease modestly from 2022 levels.

Additionally, we anticipate higher interest expense at USD5 to USD6 million with about half that interest expense in the first quarter, smaller increases in the second and thirrd quarters and a decrease in the fourth quarter. This compares to $3 million of interest expense in the full-year of 2022. We also expect significantly higher effective tax rate of between 25% and 26% compared to 23% in 2022, which benefited from certain favorable items such as prior year operating loss utilizations and the reversal of some valuation allowances. After considering these items, 2023 adjusted EPS is expected to be between USD11.50 and USD11.90 versus adjusted EPS of $10.88 last year, with the inclusion of a full-year of operating income of Johnny Was and an increased operating income in our existing businesses being partially offset by the increased income tax expense and interest expense.

In the first quarter of 2023, we expect sales of USD405 million to USD425 million compared to sales of $353 million in the first quarter of 2022. In the first quarter of 2023, we expect many of the same factors driving our results that impact the year, but higher sales, modest gross margin improvement, some SG&A deleveraging, higher interest expense and a higher effective tax rate. We expect this to result in first quarter adjusted EPS of between USD3.60 and USD3.80 compared to $3.50 in the first quarter of 2022.

Expanding on the theme of 2023 being an investment year, I’d like to briefly discuss our capex outlook for 2023. Capital expenditures in fiscal 2023 are expected to be approximately $90 million compared to $47 million in fiscal 2022. The planned increase is primarily due to increased investment in our various direct-to-consumer technology systems initiatives, the commencement of a significant multi-year project at our Alliance Georgia distribution center to enhance its direct-to-consumer throughput capabilities, executing on our pipeline of Marlin Bars, including three expected to open in 2023, the addition of Johnny Was which is increasing store count by 10 or more stores this year, and increases in store openings in our other brands. We expect this elevated capital expenditure level to continue into 2024 before it begins to moderate in 2025 and beyond.

Moving beyond the income statement, we have a positive outlook on our cash and liquidity position as well. Cash flow from operations are expected to be very strong giving us ample room to make the previously mentioned investments, fund an 18% increase to our quarterly dividend, while also delevering throughout the year.

Thanks for your time today and now we’ll turn the call over for questions. Stacey?

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you. We will now be conducting a question-and-answer session. [Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from Ed Yruma with Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Ed Yruma — Piper Sandler — Analyst

Hey, good afternoon guys, thanks for taking the questions. I guess first, Tom, on the shared services. I know you guys historically run a very decentralized organization. So just wanted to unpack maybe some of the investments you’re making, does it change kind of the orientation of the business and then. I guess as we think in the medium-term, when should we expect a resumption of SG&A leverage? Thank you.

Tom Chubb — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Okay, thank you, Ed. So the — our objective really with the centralized part of the company here at headquarters is what we want to do is look at all the key functions that you need to be good at to be successful at, to successfully run lifestyle brand, and then our approach to that is to drive excellence in each of those key functions, make sure that each of the brands is functioning at a very high level in each of those key functions. And then as we say bundling where appropriate. And what that means is we will do things on a shared services basis, where it makes sense to do so. We’re not going to just default to that, but we’ll do it where it makes sense to do so in the example I gave in the prepared remarks, which I think we may have discussed with you previously was that with respect to the emerging brands group, the three smaller brands. We thought that in order to be able to achieve the excellence that they need to have in digital marketing to be successful as lifestyle brands, that we need to bundle that digital marketing efforts. So we did exactly that, we established and built a digital marketing center of excellence during 2022, we started about a third of the way through the year and by the last third of the year, we were going wide-open in that function. And we’re very pleased that it’s achieved very good results within the emerging brands group and that was part of the reason that they were able to deliver that 29% year-over-year growth. Then we talked about. Also during the prepared remarks, establishing enterprise-wide corporate responsibility department. That’s focused mainly on what I would call ESG type efforts, as you know very well, Ed, we have always been a company that’s been about doing the right thing. And there is now both market and regulatory impetus to do more in the ESG front.

Tommy Bahama, our largest brand, had been out front on this and had setup their own corporate responsibility function, which was highly professionals and great people working in it and what we decided was that that was a function that all the brands need to be excellent at once again, and so — but we also thought that we would benefit from the scale of doing that on an enterprise-wide basis. So we centralized that as well. We actually moved the Tommy Bahama team over and made them corporate enterprise-wide function. So that’s sort of the thought process that we’re going through, Ed. We’re not going to centralize everything, things like product design, we’ll never centralize. I don’t think. Things that are very customer-facing and directly touching the customer, I don’t think that we’re going to centralize. In those areas, we’ll just focus on making sure that we’re excellent. And then, in areas where we think there is an economic advantage to bundling, we’ll do that. Does that help?

Ed Yruma — Piper Sandler — Analyst

Yes, it does and on the SG&A, when can we. Kind of pencil in resumption of leverage on that line? Thank you.

Scott Grassmyer — Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer

Yeah. As we said in prepared remarks, we expect some deleveraging this year, and hopefully when we get into ’24, that will start turning. But we’ve got a lot of investments in systems projects and we also are adding some resources in the form of people in some key areas. We also have a lot of our retail activity going on, including three Marlin Bars, and as you know, these Marlin Bars, from the time you take possession, until you open, it’s about a six-month period, so you have all the pre-opening cost including rent going through your P&L. So we have a lot of items, but they’re exciting items that. I think are going to help fuel future growth of the business. You asked whether we’re playing a little bit of catch-up on SG&A? Our business has grown dramatically and it’s when you grow business, the way it’s grown, always, it’s hard to get that infrastructure add as quick as the sales are growing. So we’re playing a little bit of catch-up in ’23.

Ed Yruma — Piper Sandler — Analyst

Thanks so much and congrats on the great results.

Tom Chubb — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Ed.

Operator

Next question Dana Telsey with Telsey Group. Please go ahead.

Dana Telsey — Telsey Group — Analyst

Hi, nice to see the fourth quarter results, as you have taken a look at next year, and you talked a little about some of the increases in expenses as you think about each brand, where could that — could if it was better-than-expected, are there new products or categories that we should be looking for as we go through this year? And then just lastly on the wholesale business, we talked about flat. I believe, what are you seeing on the wholesale business overall and how do you think about the health of the consumer with the exit rate, as you exited the quarter? Thank you.

Tom Chubb — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Okay. Dana. I’ll start with our wholesale question and I think that we’re planning on it being flat, as you know very well because you follow so many of these people, most of the major retailers are being very, very careful and cautious about their forward inventory buys, most of them are actually buying down on a year-over-year basis. So in our view and we see this in the results that we’re achieving on the selling floor, flat is actually an outperform in the wholesale this year. So we’re — we’re really pretty happy with that. And while we’d love to see growth, we also like to see the big retailers being prudent about their inventory buy.

Then on the health of the consumer, what I would tell you and this shows up very much in our fourth quarter results is that the health of the consumer has been good for the consumers that we serve, as I think the health of the consumer has been good, we expect to continue to be good. We’re not looking for a major macro rebound in the economy, but we think our consumer will hold up pretty well through the year. And I think the primary risk at this point to be very direct about it is probably what’s been happening in the banking world and the Fed and sort of regulatory response to that, our belief is that we will get through that, the Fed and the regulators will navigate us through that, without it becoming a much larger problem, but that would be the one sort of uncontrollable factor that I think is out there at the moment. And again, we think they’re going to get through it. Our consumer will hold-up, but this week in particular, it’s hard not to have that sort of top-of-mind and what was the third thing?

Scott Grassmyer — Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer

Opportunities.

Tom Chubb — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Opportunities, yes. From a product or category standpoint, Dana. I think there are some big opportunities that are really more about growing existing categories, so I think in Tommy Bahama and the women’s dress category, we’ve got a lot of room to run our dress business. Has been very strong there. But I think we can continue to build that, and as you know, that is a very large category within the total apparel market. I would tell you the same thing within Johnny Was. I think you have a very large opportunity in dresses, in particular. And again, they are having very good success with the building at very nice for you, historically, they have been a little light on dresses as a percentage to their total and I think they’ve got lots of room to grow there. Then in addition to those types of opportunities where we can grow a bid category at a sort of an enhanced rate growth, I think throughout the company, there are some fill-in opportunities and one that’s not going to be huge overnight and probably even over the long-term, I don’t think is an enormous category but we recently started in Lilly Pulitzer some enhanced home product and the concept there is to be the destination of choice for sort of an elevated elegant hostess gift and we’ve started out with a small assortment of items, some picture frames and things like that. But we’re pleased with the early performance. And we think we can do some business in that space. I think we’ve got similar opportunities like that across the company.

Dana Telsey — Telsey Group — Analyst

Thank you.

Tom Chubb — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Dana.

Operator

Next question, Paul Lejuez with Citigroup. Please go ahead.

Tracy Kogan — Citigroup — Analyst

Hey, thanks, it’s Tracy Kogan filling in for Paul. I have two questions, the first one was on your SG&A, in fourth quarter, I was wondering if you could talk about how much markdown levels are either up or down versus last year? And then what was freight relative to last year? And then for both of those pieces, what’s embedded in your gross margin guidance for 2023, I think you said moderately up. Just wondering what you’re assuming for markdowns and promotions versus freight and then I have a follow-up when you’re done with that. Thank you.

Scott Grassmyer — Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer

Okay, freight, pretty much returned — the freight rates pretty much returned to pre pandemic levels in the fourth-quarter and our use of air-freight was down considerably from what has been earlier, maybe a tiny bit elevated from pre pandemic. So there really was a lot of. Freight noise in our fourth quarter and going into ’23, we’re really not — where freight rates are much better. And we think our supply chain, we have accelerated our merchandising calendars. So we’re — really expect very little air freight this year. So I don’t think freight will really be much of a negative factor at all in gross margins in ’23,

Tracy Kogan — Citigroup — Analyst

And on the markdowns. Sorry.

Scott Grassmyer — Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer

As far as inventory markdowns, we had in our emerging brands group, we did take some inventory markdowns last year, and we do not anticipate anniversarying those. Lilly flash sale, we think will be a little bit smaller in ’23 than it was in ’22. And so overall. I think our inventory markdown rates will be a tiny bit less year-over-year and we think we will start with a little bit higher IMU modestly higher IMU. And then we do have the added the Johnny Was business for the full-year, which will — and then, wholesale will be a little bit lower piece of the mix. I think we have some mix advantages that’ll be running through ’23 that will help our gross margin some.

Tracy Kogan — Citigroup — Analyst

Got it, thank you and then I just had a follow-up. I think you said you expect to open 10 or more Johnny Was stores. I was wondering if you could talk about what you — what the new-store model there looks like in terms of the new-store investment and your payback period compared to what Tommy or Lilly store and. I was wondering how many of those leases you’ve actually signed already for 2023? Thanks.

Tom Chubb — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I’ll make a quick comment on it and let Scott follow-on, but I think Johnny Was has a slightly different approach to stores than our other brands. They’re a little bit smaller. I think their average square footage is 1,600 or so square feet. So a little smaller than most of well, really been all of the Tommy stores fundamentally and a little bit smaller than Lilly runs as well. They also go into somewhat I would call somewhat niche type locations. So in the past, really even some [indecipherable] they opened in Santa Fe, which is the first store that we have in Santa Fe, but we think that’s a great spot for them and we’re excited about that one. Another example would be a tiny little store that they did in Vero Beach, Florida. I think it’s like 600 square fee. And it’s almost like a little beach bungalow. And it’s just — it’s so right for the brand. It looks terrific and all of that. And then what they do real-estate tend to do these smaller niche type locations and then they really work with what they’re and just sort of make their own. the build-out cost actually tends to be a little bit lower than in our other brands. And I’ll let Scott fill-in some of the details on investment level and the payback.

Scott Grassmyer — Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer

Yeah, Johnny Was is investing less, so the paybacks are usually less than two years on a retail store, some even quicker than that. So they are very productive, they also use usually build-in different several kicked out rights in leases, so. But we usually are 10-year leases both several ways to get-out. If it doesn’t work. [indecipherable] that we’re going to open, we’ve probably got six or seven, signed and we’ve got multiple other ones in various stages of negotiation. Some will could open this year. So it might be next year. So we’re excited about the growth, we think there’s still a lot of runway for new stores. We’re also opening stores and the other brands, maybe for bottle open some stores Southern Tide will will open, quite a few stores, Lilly will get a couple open and we’ve got three Tommy Bahama Marlin Bars that we’re very excited about, that pipeline and the Marlin Bars are something that takes a while to get going and we have a real pipeline in Marlin Bars, so. I think we’ll be able to you opened at least three next year and for the several years. So-so the brick-and-mortar front. I think got a lot of exciting growth.

Tracy Kogan — Citigroup — Analyst

Great, thanks very much.

Tom Chubb — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks you, Tracy.

Operator

Our last question comes from Noah Zatzkin with KeyBanc. Please go ahead.

Noah Zatzkin — KeyBanc — Analyst

Hi, thanks for taking my questions. First, wondering if you could provide any color on the exit rate leaving 2022 and then relatedly, on top-line growth by brand contemplated in the USD405 million to USD425 million 1Q revenue guidance range. And then second, just on inventory, how are you feeling about the position and overall composition. I think you noted that the increase versus ’19 was driven by $20 million of incremental Johnny Was inventory and. I think $25 million of earlier receipts. But just if you could help unpack that a bit. Thank you.

Tom Chubb — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Okay, regarding the exit rate for the fourth quarter of 2021, I assume you mean the — or excuse me, the fourth quarter of 2022, you mean the sales trajectory?

Noah Zatzkin — KeyBanc — Analyst

Yeah.

Tom Chubb — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, so if you remember Noah back in our December call, we said that November had actually been a little bit softer than the prior year, that did not seem out blacked us because in 2021, people have bought so early. So we weren’t entirely surprised by that. And what we saw was a very normalizing environment in Q4 where November was not as good as November of ’21, but much more like what prior Novembers have looked like. And then obviously as our fourth quarter results reflect the rest of the quarter ended-up being strong. And then in February, we also had a good month. I’ve seen a lot of other people in our space, talked about February being tough, but we actually had quite a good February, we were pretty happy with what we saw in February, and you know, as we sit here today, March has been slightly choppy, but we believe we’ve factored all that into our forecast and we think that the weather returns and Easter and spring breaks approach which are pretty meaningful catalyst for us on the sales front, and then we get into all the summer holidays, Memorial Day, Mother’s Day and Father’s Day, 4th July, we couldn’t be more excited about what got ahead of us.

Scott Grassmyer — Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer

As far as the inventory, we have $20 million more Johnny Was and we have about $25 million from accelerating the supply chain, really to — there’s been interruptions out there and we wanted to bring goods in earlier to make sure we had on earlier, we also mentioned that our lines are — we have a much heavier focus on core and key items and a lot of those programs do tend to bring in the season’s inventory at the beginning of that season versus fashion where you’re bringing that monthly, you’re bringing in deliveries, so that tends to — when you have a more core key item business, you tend to carry a little more inventory, so when we like to compare back to ’19 and even despite the Johnny Was and the acceleration, our anticipated sales are expected to much outpace what the inventory growth has been. So we feel-good about our inventory, the composition of it and the levels, and we think we’re set-up well to capture demand in ’23.

Noah Zatzkin — KeyBanc — Analyst

Thank you very much.

Scott Grassmyer — Chief Financial Officer and Chief Operating Officer

Thank you, Noah.

Operator

Thank you. I would like to turn the floor over to Tom Chubb for closing remarks.

Tom Chubb — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Okay, thank you all very much for your time and your interest in our company and we look-forward to talking to you again. In June, and hope all is well with you until then.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]