Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (RCL) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript

Royal Caribbean Cruises Ltd (NYSE: RCL) Q4 2025 Earnings Call dated Jan. 29, 2026

Corporate Participants:

Blake Vanier — Vice President of Investor Relations

Jason T. Liberty — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Michael Bayley — President and Chief Executive Officer – Royal Caribbean International

Naftali Holtz — Chief Financial Officer

Analysts:

Matthew Boss — Analyst

Steven Wieczynski — Analyst

James Hardiman — Analyst

Elizabeth Dove — Analyst

Robin Farley — Analyst

Brandt Montour — Analyst

Conor Cunningham — Analyst

David Katz — Analyst

Presentation:

operator

Good Morning, my name is Morgan and I’ll be your conference operator today. At this time I would like to welcome everyone to the Royal Caribbean Group fourth quarter and full year 2025 earnings call. All participants are in a listen only mode. After the speaker presentation there will be a question and answer session. To ask a question during this session you will need to press star then the number one on your telephone. I would like to introduce Mr. Blake Vanier, Vice President of Investor Relations. Mr. Vanier, the floor is yours.

Blake Vanier — Vice President of Investor Relations

Good morning everyone and thank you for joining us today for our fourth quarter 2025 earnings call. Joining me here in Miami are Jason Liberty, our Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Naftali Holtz, our Chief Financial Officer and Michael Bailey, President and CEO of the Royal Caribbean brand. Before we get started, I’d like to note that we will be making forward looking statements during this call. These statements are based on management’s current expectations and are subject to risks and uncertainties. A number of factors could cause actual results to differ materially from our current expectations. Please refer to our earnings release issued this morning as well as our filings with the SEC for a description of these factors.

We do not undertake to update any forward looking statements as circumstances change. Also, we will be discussing certain non GAAP financial measures which are adjusted as defined as and a reconciliation of all non GAAP items can be found on our investor website and in our earnings release. Unless we state otherwise, all metrics are on a constant currency adjusted basis. Jason will begin the call by providing a strategic overview and update on the business. Naftali will follow with a recap of our fourth quarter, the current booking environment and our outlook for 2026. We will then open the call for your questions.

With that, I’m pleased to turn the call over to Jason.

Jason T. Liberty — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you Blake and good morning everyone. I’m very pleased to share our fourth quarter and full year 2025 results, our outlook for 2026 and our exciting strategic investments that will continue to shape and accelerate Royal Caribbean Group’s future success. 2025 was an outstanding year defined by strong demand for our brands and vacation experiences, disciplined execution of our strategies, strong balance sheet management and robust financial performance. We delivered a record 9.4 million memorable vacations at a very high customer satisfaction score, achieved nearly 18 billion of total revenue and 33% earnings growth, all while expanding our margins, increasing return on invested capital and reducing leverage.

We generated nearly 6.5 billion of operating cash flow and returned $2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks. Meanwhile, our scale, profitability and consistent execution enable continued investments in the differentiated experiences and innovations that delight guests and fuel the next chapter of long term growth. I want to thank our team members worldwide for their passion and unwavering dedication to providing outstanding vacation experiences every day. Their efforts made our guest vacations memorable and contributed to a successful year for our shareholders. As a global vacation leader, we continue to broaden our vacation ecosystem across ocean, river and land with unique experiences giving guests more ways to experience the world with our family of brands.

Today we are announcing a further expansion of Celebrity River Cruises with a commitment for 10 additional ships. This will expand Celebrity’s river Cruise fleet to 20 vessels by 2031. The expansion will make Celebrity River Cruises one of the largest European river cruise operators, offering more itineraries and destinations than ever before. We are also announcing the launch of the Royal Caribbean brand’s new Discovery Class ships that will redefine how Royal’s guests experience the world. The agreement with the shipyard includes two firm order ships and options for four additional ships. And we recently shared the next evolution of our loyalty program with Points Choice, which gives consumers the freedom to earn points on any of our three vacation brands and apply them where they matter most, regardless of the ship they’re sailing.

The expansion of our Ocean and river fleets Loyalty enhancements and our growing exclusive destination portfolio strengthens the integrated ecosystem we are building. These investments broaden our appeal to new guests while deepening the connection with with those who already vacation with us. Supported by technology and AI that make the experience more seamless and more personal, this approach expands the way guests can vacation with our family of brands and reinforces our vacation of a lifetime strategy. Now turning to our results, I am very proud of what we have accomplished in 2025. Flawless execution of our incredible teams propelled our strong performance in 2025, elevating demand across our brands and driving durable margin expansion.

This resulted in a 33% year over year increase in adjusted earnings per share and ROIC in the high teens. We also invested in key strategic priorities while strengthening the balance sheet and returning capital to shareholders. The year ended on a great note. Fourth quarter net yields grew 2.5% and adjusted EPS was $2.80 higher than our guidance. We also generated strong profitability and margin expansion as we continue to execute on both commercial and cost priorities. With this strong performance, we are on track to achieve our perfected financial targets in 2027. As we said before, Perfecta is an important milestone on our growth journey, but our ambitions go well beyond it.

2025 was another year of remarkable milestones on our journey to expand the way our guests can experience our brands across ship and shore. We welcomed Royal Caribbean Star of the Seas, took delivery of Celebrity xl, launched Celebrity River Cruises, and finally in late December opened the Royal Beach Club. Paradise Island. Our joint venture with TUI Cruises also added to this momentum with the delivery of Mindshift Relax, the first vessel in its new class and the largest ship in its fleet. We also continue to invest in technology and innovation that makes our vacations easier to discover, easier to plan and more personalized while making our business smarter and more efficient.

Over the past year, we further embedded disruptive technologies like AI across all commercial and operational areas. I’ll provide more detail on our tech investments later in the call. 2025 demonstrated the power of our model and the strength of our platform and it sets us up well for 2026 and future years. Our momentum continues into 2026. The wave is off to a record start. We experienced the best seven booking weeks in the company’s history since the last earnings call. As a result, we are already about two thirds booked for the year, with book load factors well within historical ranges at record rates.

This sets us up to optimize pricing and yield growth as we continue to build the book of business for the balance of the year. All commercial channels are delivering quality demand with direct to consumer performing particularly well. Last year we added hundreds of new digital capabilities as consumers preference for digital engagement continues to grow. Our increasingly connected ecosystem aims to make vacation planning straightforward and seamless. Travel partners are also delivering meaningful more bookings than last year and at higher rates. Our spectacular new ships continue to generate strong high quality demand. Star of the Seas and Celebrity XL are exceeding expectations and Legend of the Seas, our first Icon class ship debut in Europe later this year, is experiencing very strong booking trends.

Our latest research shows that our consumers feel financially secure and continue to prioritize experiences with 40% planning to increase leisure travel spending in the next year. The cruise value proposition continues to resonate due to quality, amenities, value and convenience. Looking ahead for 2026, our proven formula will continue to generate strong financial results. Moderate capacity growth although 2026 will be a bit higher at mid single digits. Moderate yield growth and strong cost control. Combination of those three things create meaningful margin expansion, increase cash flow and drives a stronger balance sheet. That’s the model we planned for and it’s the model we’re executing today while also funding future growth and expanding capital return to shareholders.

Revenue is expected to increase double digit year over year resulting in full year net yield growth in the range of 1.5 to 3.5%. We expect positive yield growth for our key products including the Caribbean as our investments continue to differentiate us and strengthen our leadership position even in a period of elevated capacity growth in the region. Full year adjusted earnings per share is expected to be in the range of $17.70 to $18.10, a 14% year over year increase. We also expect to deliver over $7 billion of operating cash flow this year and we continue to prioritize strategic investments into our future while enhancing capital returns to shareholders through competitive dividends.

Opportunistic Share Repurchase Programs At Royal Caribbean Group, our strategy is centered on creating a lifetime of vacations for our guests by continually strengthening the ecosystem that makes those experiences possible. We are extending our competitive moat through differentiated experiences, world class brands, exclusive destinations, an industry leading loyalty program and technological investments that remove friction and and make every interaction more personalized. Together these elements reinforce our lifetime of vacation ecosystem. Attracting new guests, driving more frequency and long term loyalty that translates into sustainable growth and shareholder value. A cornerstone of that strategy is our exclusive destination portfolio.

We’re especially excited about Royal Beach Club paradise island which opened in December and is off to an incredible start. Guest response has been exceptionally positive, reinforcing our confidence in the role these experiences play as we continue to expand our destination platform, innovation on the ship side remains a key differentiator. New ships do more than add capacity. They expand the experience, broaden the guest base and raise guest satisfaction, all while driving and enabling better financial results. And today’s announcement of the new Discovery class of ships on our Royal Caribbean brand is the next step in our innovation roadmap designed to continue to raise the bar for our guest experience and to extend our leadership in the vacation space.

We’ll share more details as we go, but it will follow our disciplined approach, investing in product leadership and high return growth that compounds over time. As I shared at the beginning of the call, we are expanding our river business with the commitment for 10 additional ships that will expand the Celebrity River Cruise fleet to 20 vessels by 2031. We see river cruising as an exciting growth opportunity that adds an incremental vacation choice and expands the moments and occasions guests can experience with us all while deepening loyalty across our family of brands. Finally, AI and disruptive technology are becoming a foundational advantage for us, representing a core capability that improves the guest experience, strengthens our commercial engine and helps us run the business more intelligently.

Our digital channels are increasing the gateway to long term guest value highlighted by a 25% year over year increase in active users on the app in the fourth quarter. E commerce traffic was up 10% year over year in 2025 with conversions improving throughout the year. As it relates to disruptive technology including AI and Genai, we’re scaling in two complementary ways. First, we’re investing in enterprise programs that deliver better guest satisfaction and experience while improving revenue and margin, helping us to fundamentally change how we run the business. And second, we’re infusing these technologies across the organization through smaller practical use cases that create momentum, productivity and confidence.

At the individual and team level, we are improving our ability to curate and personalize what guests see while increasing pre cruise engagement because a vacation is better when it’s easier to plan and easier to personalize. The goal is to reduce friction, improve the experience and present relevant options that. Add value to the guest. We are also using AI to improve efficiency and execution from supply chain forecasting to energy management and marine operations. These are the types of capabilities that build durable operating leverage over time and reinforce our focus on margin expansion and returns. Disruptive technology is not just a tool, it’s a capability that we have been building for more than five years. It helps us deliver a better experience, run a smarter operation and strengthen the ecosystem we’re building for Long Term growth In closing, 2025 was an exceptional year and we entered 2026 from a position of strength, a differentiated vacation platform, a strong balance sheet and a disciplined approach to growth and returns.

And with that I will turn it over to Naftali. Naf?

Naftali Holtz — Chief Financial Officer

Thank you Jason and good morning everyone. I will start by reviewing fourth quarter results. Net yields grew 2.5% in constant currency, 5 basis points above the midpoint of our guidance. Yields grew across all key products on 10% capacity growth and were driven by both new and existing hardware. Total revenue growth in the fourth quarter was 13%. Net cruise costs excluding fuel decreased 6.3% in constant currency in line with our guidance as we remain focused on identifying sustainable efficiencies in our operations while further enhancing our vacation offerings. Adjusted earnings per share were $2.80. Earnings outperformance compared to guidance was driven by favorable revenue and better performance across our joint ventures.

The fourth quarter caps an incredible year for us as strong demand for our vacation experiences coupled with strong execution by our teams resulted in happy guests and robust financial results. Guest satisfaction continues to outpace industry standards and remains exceptionally strong while we consistently achieve significant improvements in financial performance. For the full year, total revenue grew 8.8%, adjusted EBITDA grew by 17.6% to just over $7 billion and adjusted EPS grew 33% to $15.64. At the same time, we generated $6.4 billion of operating cash flow, achieved an investment grade balance sheet and returned $2 billion of capital to shareholders, all while investing more than 5 billion in our future.

Since 2019, we have transformed the Royal Caribbean Group into a stronger, more profitable and more resilient vacation platform, solidifying our strong financial foundation. Total guests increased 45% since 2019, with millennials and Younger nearly doubling. At the same time, we saw strong growth from both new and repeat guests. Total revenue has increased by 64% and adjusted EBITDA has surged 94% since 2019. Net income more than doubled and operating cash flow grew 75% supporting continued growth and long term shareholder return. Moving to our 2026 outlook, I will start with capacity and deployment for the year with introduction of Legend and the annualized impact of Star and Excel.

Capacity is expected to be up 6.7% year over year on the higher end of our moderate capacity growth. While the amount of dry docks is modestly higher than 2025, the cadence and its impact on the quarterly capacity is different. We have less capacity in dry dock in the first quarter and more in the second quarter. It is also worth noting that on average we have more premium hardware in dry docks this year when compared to last year, hurting yield comparisons and this is most pronounced in the second quarter. We expect APCDs to grow 8.5% in the first and third quarters and 5% in the second and fourth quarter.

As Jason mentioned, the year is off to a very strong start. Book loke factors remain within historical ranges at record rates with approximately 2/3 of 2026 inventory having already been booked at higher rates. Our deployment mix is consistent with last year. The Caribbean represents 57% of our capacity growing 8% compared to last year. With the full year impact of Star of the SEAS and Celebrity XL, Caribbean yields have grown 35% since 2019 and we expect continued yield growth in 2026 even as capacity in the region is increasing. The Caribbean continues to be the most desired cruise destination by consumers and the best way to experience the Caribbean is with the Royal Caribbean Group.

The combination of leading brands, the best hardware and exclusive destinations results in the region outperforming in both NPS and profitability. We continue to differentiate in the Caribbean market. We have the best hardware in the market with six Oasis class ships and three Icon class ships. Over 70% of guests on these itineraries sailing on the Royal Caribbean brand will visit a private destination this year and that percentage will increase to 90% in 2028 with the opening of the Beach Club in Cozumel and Perfect Day Mexico. Europe will account for 15% of capacity and is growing 5% versus last year including Legend of the Seas debuting in Europe this summer.

European sailings continue to perform very well on both rate and volume with strong demand from both American and European consumers. It is worth noting that while European capacity, which is high yielding is up for the year, it is down the first half of the year driven by a decrease in the second quarter due to dry dock timing. Alaska is expected to account for 5% of total capacity and and is up 3% versus last year. We have some of the best hardware in the region including Celebrity Edge 2 Quantum Class Chips and Silvermoon. Turning to our 2026 guidance, we expect yield growth of 1.5 to 3.5% from both new and like for like hardware with a projected capacity increase of 6.7%.

Revenue for 2026 is expected to achieve a double digit growth rate. Our leading vacation platform, anchored by attractive value proposition and supported by strategic investments, enables us to grow both capacity and rate, setting us apart within the vacation market. We do expect net yield growth to be higher in the second half of the year compared to the first half given the impact of dry dock timing, the ramp up of Royal Beach Club paradise island, timing of new ship deliveries and deployment mix changes, full year net cruise costs excluding fuel are expected to be flat to up 1% following a 10 basis points decrease in 2025.

There are also about 200 basis points of cost headwinds mainly related to our private destinations portfolio ramp up that come without a PCD increase. The cadence of our cost growth varies throughout the year with first half cost growth expected to be higher than second half driven mainly by timing of dry docks and year over year quarterly comps. Compared to 2025, we anticipate full year fuel expense of approximately $1.17 billion with 60% of our projected fuel consumption hedged. Approximately 10% of our fuel consumption is expected to be from LNG and BioFuel blends compared to 8% in 2025.

Fuel efficiency continues to improve with fuel consumption per APCD reducing by approximately 4% compared to 2025 driven by new hardware and deployment optimization. As a reminder, the scope of the European Union Emissions Trading System or EU ETS will expand in 2026 to cover 100% of emissions associated with our European itineraries, up from 70% in 2025. Based on current fuel prices, currency exchange rates and interest expense, we expect adjusted earnings per share between $17 and and $18.10 a 14% year over year growth at the midpoint. This also represents a 23% CAGR over the first two years of Perfecta which sets us up well to achieve our targets.

By 2027 we expect adjusted EBITDA to be a little shy of $8 billion, 13% year over year growth adjusted EBITDA margin that is just over 40%. Strong growth and improved profitability enable us to enhance cash flow, invest in key initiatives, maintain investment grade metrics and increase capital returns to shareholder. We expect to invest $5 billion of capital into our key strategic growth initiatives as well as ensuring our assets are well maintained. We are set to deliver Legend of the Seas in the second quarter with committed financing in place. Non ship capital is expected to be $1.8 billion with a significant portion related to our private destination portfolio, Santorini Beach Club, the Cozumel Beach Club and Perfect Day Mexico as well as our fleet modernization program that ensures we keep elevating the guest experience and enhancing financial performance.

Now I will discuss our first quarter guidance. In the first quarter capacity will be up 8.5% year over year, more than 70% of our capacity will be in the Caribbean, 16% in Asia Pacific, and the remaining capacity is spread across several other itineraries. Net yields are expected to be up 1% to 1.5% in constant currency. This includes an impact of 30 basis points from recent itinerary modifications in China and approximately 50 basis points of yield headwinds due to deployment shifts. Net cruise costs, excluding fuel, are expected to be up in the range of 0.9 to 1.4% in constant currency.

Taking all this into account, we expect adjusted earnings per share for the quarter to be $3.18 to $3.28. Turning to our balance sheet, we ended the quarter with $7.2 billion in liquidity and leverage well below three times consistent with our goal of solid investment grade metrics. With the strong expected cash flow generation, we will continue to manage maturities, find opportunities to reduce cost of capital, and opportunistically buy back shares. In closing, we remain committed and focused on our mission to deliver the best vacation experiences responsibly as we work to deliver another year of great results.

With that, I will ask our operator to open the call for a question and answer session.

Questions and Answers:

operator

At this time, we will conduct the question and answer session. To ask a question, please press Star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. We do ask that you limit your questions to one per analyst. Once again, to ask a question at this time, please press Star, then the number one on your telephone keypad. Your first question comes from Matthew Boss with JP Morgan. Your line is open.

Matthew Boss

Great, thanks. And congrats on another really nice quarter. Thank you. So, Jason, maybe to kick off, could you elaborate on the further acceleration and momentum into 2026 that you cited? And just larger picture, how do you see your portfolio differentiated today relative to that $2 trillion total vacation market with the opportunity to capture additional market share from here?

Jason T. Liberty

Well, thanks, Matt, and hope you’re doing well. One, I think that obviously our business is growing. Our, our capacity is growing 6.7% this year. And one of the things that we just see coming into this year, and we saw this even during the Black Friday and cyber sale activities that we’ve seen an acceleration in demand, which of course more than matches the capacity that we have coming on.

So we continue to see a very strong consumer who is really attracted to our incredible brands and the experiences that they’re delivering. We’re also seeing additional tailwind. And you can see that in our, you know, just in terms of, on the loyalty side, you know, we’re seeing an increase in the percentage of our guests that are loyalists. So our loyalty programs. And now with that coming with Point Choice, you know, we’re seeing more and more high quality demand for our guests. And of course, you know, with loyalty, you’re able to personalize more and put a very effective package in front of them in terms of what they’re looking to achieve with their friends and family that they’re sailing with.

As we look at the business, you know, and you’ve heard me say this in the past, we really do look at that 2 trillion plus. I mean, it’s growing now. It’s even over $2 trillion leisure space for us to grab more share of. And when you get into why, why are we so focused on, obviously there’s many reasons to do that to close that gap and focus less on our cruise competitors is that we think that we’re able to increase our margins by putting a product in place that is really attracted to our guests. And so what you’re seeing us do commercially first is we’re making sure that we are personalizing, putting things in front of our guests that they’re attracted to and taking friction out of how they book their activities each and every day.

On the product standpoint, we. We listen very closely to what our guests are looking for. And so you’re seeing us on the new ships that we deliver, you’re seeing it on the modernization activities we’re doing and also the changes we’re making on the ship to how do we close the gap to what our guests are looking to, not just for a cruise vacation, but for a broader vacation experience. And then on the destination side, you’re seeing us invest in enhancing the guest experience. And when you look at, for example, I think Santorini is a great example of this.

We’re not looking to take guests out of the key cities of Santorini. What we’re looking to do is help them maximize their day and spend time in our private destination, the Royal Beach Club, that will be there, as well as in the key cities in Santorini. So all this is really focused on how do we enhance the experience. And when we find, when we’re doing that, we’re building more trust and we’re also enhancing the overall guest experience. And we see that just through the change in the net promoter score. Then when you get into the ecosystem, we think about what are our guests doing when they’re not with us.

And so one way you grab share of that $2 trillion marketplace is you expand your offering. And so that’s one of the things that historically we would expand our offering by add more destinations here. We see that when our guests are not with us or some of our guests when they’re not with us, they’re taking an additional vacation on a river. And that’s why we feel so passionate about getting deeper and deeper into that business. And what we see is we’re closing gaps to Orlando, we’re closing gaps to Vegas, we’re closing gaps to other vacation all inclusive experiences which get higher APDs than us, probably sell at least 15% higher APDs.

And so we’re trying to close that gap. We think we deliver a higher value proposition than what happens on land and that collectively, you tie that together with great loyalty. Personalization is resulting in, I think what you see is outperformance.

Naftali Holtz

Just to add one more thing to what Jason said. So all these things that we’re doing, as you can see this year, we’re growing both capacity and yield. And as we look at it, we feel that this is a differentiation within the vacation marketplace and that leads really to winning more share from the consumers in that $2 trillion market. So we feel very passionate that we’ll continue to innovate and that sets us so continue to innovate and add more experiences like river. And that sets us very well to continue to win that share from that $2 trillion, which is obviously a very big market.

operator

Your next question comes from Steve Wieczynski with Stifel. Your line is open.

Steven Wieczynski

Yeah. Hey, guys, good morning and congrats on a strong 2025. So they want me to ask one question. I’m going to do that, but it’s going to be two different parts. So I’m going to. So, Jason, obviously there’s, you know, there’s a lot of concern on the market, you know, about Caribbean capacity and what that means in terms of taking price action, especially on the close in side of things. So if you could, could you walk us through maybe what you’re seeing today in the Caribbean, maybe more. So, you know, whether it’s by brand, whether it’s by itinerary, whether it’s by specific product.

And I guess I’m trying to understand is, you know, what is doing well in the Caribbean, what might be lagging. And then I would assume that you guys are probably taking a conservative approach to, you know, what close in pricing is going to look like in the Caribbean given, you know, given the industry capacity increases. And then second part of my question would be, you know, Jason, if you think about your 2026 yield guidance, you know, 2.5% at the midpoint. Just wondering if that 2.5% fits with your company tagline, meaning you guys talked about moderate yield growth, and I’m just wondering if two and a half percent fits that profile or is this a year where yield growth might be more hampered given what’s happening in the Caribbean? That’s it.

Jason T. Liberty

Okay. Well, thanks, Steve.

Steven Wieczynski

I’m sorry.

Jason T. Liberty

Yeah, I think there were more than. Two questions in that. But I think first off, just, just talking about the Caribbean and certainly my colleagues here can chime in as well. Of course, we read what everybody else is putting out there in terms of points of view on the Caribbean. I think first, what I think we. Need to point out is I think when you have the best ships and you have the best destinations and you have brands that have incredible loyalty and trust with their guests, that equates to which is what we’re seeing is very similar demand trends for the Caribbean as we’re seeing in other parts of the world. Now there is a significant level of demand for Europe, which is great, but it’s also not a place where we have over half of our capacity. But you’re seeing very good trends in the Caribbean across all three brands. So if you want to get into.

We’re concerned about K Shapes or too much supply, we’re seeing it whether it’s on the Royal Caribbean brand or Celebrity or Silver Sea, we’re seeing high demand wanting to go to the Caribbean. And so as Nav commented, we’re not only seeing good volume, but our pricing is higher in the Caribbean than it was last year. And I know that may not feed into what maybe some groups want to hear, but that is a reality that we continue to see strong demand for the Caribbean and we continue to see strong demand for our broader organization. And that leads us, when we think about 2026.

Yeah, I mean, there are a few things that we did not expect. For example, with some of the redeployments we’ve had to make around China, and that also resulted a little bit more of our deployment in locations that are a little bit lower yielding, doesn’t mean they’re less margin or less profit. They just may not have the same price point as something else. And that’s why we’re seeing strong earnings growth coming out of all this. But when you think about a company. That our capacity is growing 6.7% this y ear, our total revenue is up double digits. I think it’s up almost 88% versus 19 total revenue. And so we’re growing our business. We’re going to continue to grow our business moderately. And the yield, I mean, typically we think about moderate yield growth somewhere between 2 to 4%. We’re in that 2 to 4%. Probably be a little bit better if it wasn’t for China. But besides that, we’re seeing people who are willing to pay more money than they did last year. They’re willing to spend more money on the ships than they did last year. We’re getting the volumes that are more than what our capacity increase is, and we’re benefiting from a lot of the investments that we’ve made around AI and loyalty and so forth.

The last comment I just want to make about, you know, the comment I just made about that our total revenue is growing double digits in 2026. The Caribbean total revenue is growing by double digits in 2026.

operator

Your next question comes from James Hardiman with Citi. Your line is open.

James Hardiman

Hey, good morning. I actually just wanted to continue down that same line of thinking. Maybe if you could help us think about your business, sort of organic versus inorganic. Obviously you’ve got another Icon class ship coming on. You’ve got some calendar benefits from last year’s Icon and celebrity ships, and then you’ve got, you know, the Royal Beach Club coming on. I don’t think you’re going to get any benefit from the second one in Cozumel, but at least that first one. And so when I just think about the inorganic stuff, it sort of feels like you could get maybe north of 2% on that alone.

How should I think about the organic business? And then maybe specifically the organic business in Caribbean, just given the idea that that seems to be if there’s going to be more capacity coming to the Caribbean, you know, those older ships, the older tonnage probably is taking on the brunt of that, you know, the competitive environment that you’re seeing from one of your peers. Thanks.

Jason T. Liberty

Yeah, okay. Well, thanks, James, for the question. And I think first, you know, as we look at our yield profile for this year, about half of it’s going to come from new hardware, by the way, as we add new hardware into our environment, just because the denominator is bigger, it has less of effect on our yield improvement. So half of it’s going to come from new hardware and the other half is coming from like, for like. I’ll have Michael talk for a second here in a minute on the Royal Beach Club. But historically, if you look at when we launched Perfect Day, we started very slow in the buildup of that business.

And we do that very intently to make sure that we have mastered the experience. And Michael and his team are masters at doing that before we kind of ramp up to more significant levels. But when you think about our business, that’s typically the tailwinds that we see like, for like yield growth. By the way, that also includes the Caribbean. And you’re also seeing the benefits of the new hardware as it comes on sometimes in quarters. It’s a little bit when some of the new ships are coming in, some of the deployment changes, especially even when new ships come in like a ship might have been in on a Saturday, now it goes out on a Friday. That can sometimes play a little bit of a mix in that.

Michael Bayley

Hi, James, it’s Michael. Just to comment on Jason’s commentary regarding the Royal Beach Club and the opening. You know, we typically start all of these new products slowly. We have capacity restraints when we open up just to make sure that we’ve got the product absolutely perfect. And that’s exactly what we’ve done with the Royal Beach Club. The great news is, is that within four weeks, the Royal Beach Club has already become the number one top rated experience in Nassau for our cruise guests. And it’s already outperformed all other products that are available in the market.

That’s exactly where we want to be. So we’re pushing it now to get to exactly the same level of satisfaction as Perfect Day. Latest results show at about 0.8 of 1% behind Perfect Day for a satisfaction delivery, which means that the NPS is really stunning. So we’re moving towards that goal of making sure that we’ve got the perfect product and the demand now is really starting to ramp up and we feel like we’re going to have a huge success with the product.

Naftali Holtz

Just wanted to think about the, the yields and the like. For like, you know, obviously the yields is just one part of the equation. We also look at the profitability of the ships. So if you kind of look at the way we are expecting margins to grow this year and of course, earnings, there is also the ability to not only benefit from new ships, efficiency and scale and just better margins, but we also make, even if we make those deployment changes, we find ways to also run them more efficiently and deliver the guest experience in a better way. So the profitability is also growing on both, not just the, not just the yield.

operator

Your next question comes from Lizzie Dove with Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Elizabeth Dove

Hey, thanks for taking the question and congrats on a great year. I guess Thinking more, you gave a lot of great color in terms of some of the cadence for the year and the factors like on the dry dock side of things and deployment islands, etc. Could you maybe share a little more in terms of how you’re thinking about that net yield cadence for the year? I guess in terms of the ramp of what’s factored into your guidance and I suppose specifically for 2Q given you kind of called that out on the dry dock side. Thanks.

Naftali Holtz

Yeah, we’re not, I’m not going to comment specifically about Q2 more about the first half and the second half but as I said in the prepared remarks, there really a couple of things that are driving that cadence. One is dry dock timing. So we do have more dry docks than last year and you know, I talked about them being more in the second quarter versus the first quarter and of course towards the end of the year. One thing that is a little unique in this year is that we have also larger ships going into modernization or dry docks and so those come obviously with higher yield.

So the year over year comparison is different. And then we have also more Silver Sea ships significantly in the last year and so those are of course also high yielding. So this is more about how the comps work and over year cadence. The second one is the ramp up of the Royal Beach Club. Michael talked about we want to get the experience right. We’re doing great and we’ll just make it better. And so there’s a little bit of impact that and then some of the deployment and mixes and the timing of new ships that we have every year. And so that’s really the main impact of the cadence throughout the year.

operator

Your next question comes from Robin Farley with UBS Financial. Your line is open.

Robin Farley

Great, thank you. Wanted to ask about the new ship order, the Discovery class. There’s not a ton of detail but you know, the industry chatter is that it’s going to be much smaller than the, you know, Icon Oasis. A lot of other ships you’ve done. And so I wonder if you could talk a little bit about. I assume that means you can put them in higher yielding destinations or just kind of what’s the trade off between maybe those ships not being as much capacity growth versus pricing and then I’m just going to squeeze in a part two, I won’t make it but just on net cruise costs just, you know, this is like year two here of just incredibly low net cruise cost.

Is this due to just the timing of, you know, two years in a row of dry dock Days. Something related or is this actually like a sustainable rate of net cruise cost growth that we would think about longer term? Thanks.

Michael Bayley

Hi, Robin, it’s Michael. I’ll talk a little bit about Discovery. Actually, I’m really not going to talk about Discovery. We’ve been working on Discovery for the last couple of years and from the business perspective, we are really excited with the innovation, creativity and the kind of product that we’ve now created with Discovery. It really is going to be a game changer. Just as Icon was introduced and kind of changed the game, Discovery is going to do exactly the same thing. We are really looking forward to sharing more details about Discovery with the marketplace, but we’re not planning on saying much about it today or in the next couple of months.

We have a promotional campaign that will be ready to go soon and we’ll be very excited to visit multiple cities and start talking about Discovery. I can tell you that it really is going to be a game changer. The many of the assumptions that are currently out there in social media, etcetera, in terms of size, capacity, etcetera. Etc. Are probably, it’s fair to say, inaccurate. So we’re looking forward to introducing it. It’s going to be a big deal and we’ll make sure that you get an invitation.

Naftali Holtz

Okay. And Robin, I’ll cover the cost. So I think for, you know, our formula and we do subscribe to it and that’s the way we run the business. And so we want to always have that spread between yield growth and cost growth. And we believe that that’s the right way to do that. And so that’s going to follow our formula. Right. And this year it follows that formula. I think the first thing that is really important, we’re very proud of how our teams not only growing the commercial aspects of IT and revenue, but how they are also delivering the experience and the cost that management, we do that.

And what’s very, very important to us is we are not compromising on the product because for us, it’s really important that we continue to deliver the best vacation experiences. And Jason talked a lot about how that will carry us and allow us to grow sustainably into the future and win share. The other thing that is the two other things that are kind of helping us in terms of how we manage cost. First, our capacity growth this year is 6.7%. And so you should expect from us, and we expect from ourselves that we can leverage the scale of this business.

We’re now going to be $8 billion company that as we continue to grow the capacity. Right there come some economies of scale on the cost side as well. That’s one. And the second one is that we’re finding more and more ways. And Jason talked about it in his prepared remarks about how do we more sustainably and smartly run the business utilizing all the disruptive technologies that’s out there, including AI and gen AI. And we talked a little bit about how we’re doing that on large commercial activities. But it’s really infused in everything that we do day to day and the teams are really working through that and utilizing it to find better ways to run the business.

Jason T. Liberty

Yeah, and I just want to just to add on, on the AI side because I think a lot of times. It’s attributed to people like you’re going. To have less people. I think we look at AI as really allowing us to do more higher purpose activities to enhance the experience for our guests and our business. Especially because of the scale of our business. You can think about supply chain, you can think about how our ships get from point A to point B. You think about how we yield, manage or just being able to get people to start kind of further up the chain in the activities that they do. That yields not only a better experience for our guests, a better experience for our employees, but also then provides cost opportunities for us.

And so we see it as a huge commercial enhancer. It’s a significant guest experience enhancer. We see it as really tooling our employees to make their experience better and for them to provide higher value. And it’s less about what I think. Sometimes we think that there’s just like less people, but we actually see it as more as it creates a lot of new things that we could be doing that’s going to drive higher margins into our business.

operator

Your next question comes from Brandt Montour with Barclays. Your line is open.

Brandt Montour

Great. Thanks for everybody. Thanks for taking the question. So we spent a lot of time on the supply situation in the Caribbean. My question is more about how maybe industry participants away from you have reacted to that. Does it feel, I mean, Jason, you’ve been watching this industry for a long time. Does it feel like, you know, a little bit more or less rational than maybe what this type of environment would have engendered in the past? And sitting here, you know, halfway through wave, with industry volumes so far seemingly pretty strong across the board, are we at a point now where maybe things can improve or sort of still wait and see?

Jason T. Liberty

Well, you know, it’s only, it’s only been 20 years, but I’ve seen a lot and Michael for sure has seen a lot over the 20 years in terms of all the different kind of promotional activities. For sure, this industry is so much more rational, so much more about price integrity. And there’s always promotions in the market, but those promotions in the market are, we would say, very similar to what we saw last year or two years ago and similar to what we saw in 2017, 18, 19, etc. Now there’s a history, if you go back probably a decade ago, you saw some irrational activity. But I think overall we would say that it’s rational, there’s a lot of price integrity. Our travel partners are doing such an exceptional job in generating high quality demand as well as our other channels, as we’re for sure a channel of choice.

And so I think collectively from what I can see, there’s a lot of rational activities. And that by the way also expands into really how we look at our true competitive set which includes land based vacations. And when we, you know, we, you know, and I think somewhat the cruise side of this is a little bit insulated because of the price gap to land based. But we’re certainly chasing to see how we can go about and close that.

operator

Your next question comes from Connor Cunningham with Melius Research. Your line is open everyone.

Conor Cunningham

Thank you. Just maybe a comment around the close in booking strength. I was just hoping you could talk about your skewed itineraries that are, that are, that are moving more towards three to four days versus you know, seven plus, you know, it’s not in the context of like you having less visibility. It’s more in the idea of you know, close in demand, you know, has the opportunity to move yields a lot more. So just can you talk a little bit about that and how, and how. I think it was 20% in 2025. So if you could just maybe correct that number but also give your thought process around 26 and beyond. Thank you.

Jason T. Liberty

Yeah, well, first, Connor, I think that coming in, I would say over the past three or four years we certainly have made it a priority to bring more short product to the market. And that is to really match how guests or certain segments, you want to go out on vacation, they want more vacation experiences, they want them more often, they want them shorter duration. That’s not everybody. But there are certain segments that want that great weekend getaway. And so we’ve certainly added that into this, but we haven’t. We’re now kind of in a more mature state with those short products.

But as you pointed out, it is Closer in business. But the reason why I want to combine those two thoughts about it’s closer in business and we’ve kind of, you know, we’ve reached kind of a good level of scale. Not that there’s not more growth, it’s just that it’s, it’s not going from, you know, you know, single digits into something that’s more material into our business. So the reason those thoughts are important to bring together is that our yield management models, right, do catch up. Right? I mean, you know, they are AI based, they do learn.

And so when we think about close in, and you can see this in the fourth quarter, we did see better demand, but it’s not, it doesn’t necessarily mean that that better demand is going to result in what we saw in previous quarters with close in booking. I think we have a pretty good handle now on close in demand, how we market it, how we price it, how it comes in, and our yield management and our forecasting is informed by all of that. I think the other point I want to say on the short product side that I think Michael and Laura have really, on the celebrities side, have done an exceptional job, is they have really elevated the experience.

Our guests walk away with having the best vacation weekend certainly of the year. And of course we want it to be of the lifetime, but certainly of the year. And I think that when you’re delivering that experience, you’re building that trust. It’s an incredible feeder for our broader part of our business, especially new to Cruise because now they’re hooked up on the vacation experience and that’s also yielding more reps. We’re getting out of our guests and that’s resulting in achieving that goal of delivering a lifetime of vacations.

Michael Bayley

And Connor, just to add to Jason’s comments, I mean, for Royal, we’ve got now we’ve got two Oasis class ships, one out of Port Canaveral, one out of Miami, moving twice a week, carrying around 12,000 people per ship per week. So that’s 24,000 a week going to Perfect Day in Cococay and now of course with the Royal Beach Club and they’re also going to the Royal Beach Club. So when you think about the proposition in the marketplace to the customer, the fact that you can get on these incredible ships just packed full of activities and entertainment, features, multiple restaurants, then wake up in the morning and take the kids to Perfect Day cook, okay, and then have a great show in the evening and the next day get to the Royal Pack Beach Club and be back in work on Monday.

Morning. It’s really a fantastic proposition and we’ve seen the demand for those products really accelerating. And of course the, the kind of, the margins that we generate on those products are really quite, quite significant. The other comment is the simplicity of booking, the ease of being able to get on board these ships. It’s become increasingly easier. And then with all of the investments that we’ve made over time in the pre cruise planning and the ability to start communicating with our guests about opportunities to book and buy products before they come on board, all of that has really combined to make this a very seamless, easy product to buy. And that’s exactly what we’re seeing. And so in many ways it does encourage people to wait a little longer before they book because they know how simple it is and they also know what a great time they’re going to have.

operator

Your next question comes from David Katz with Jefferies. Your line is open.

David Katz

Good morning everybody. Congrats and thanks for taking my question. Can you just talk about what information or inputs you have with respect to river that are driving the increased commitment there and the degree to which you believe you can induce trial of your current customer base versus taking share from existing river cruise companies? An update there would be great. Thank you.

Jason T. Liberty

Sure. Well, obviously we were very excited about river, of course, when we announced river and we announced the first 10 ships also at the same time I said this was not going to be a hobby. And so we are, you know, this is another, I think, point of evidence that this is not a hobby for us. And we feel, well, obviously we’ve done a lot of research before even announcing this or getting into this about the trust that we’ve built with our customers, how loyalty affects them and that really their desire for an elevated river experience.

And so we felt very strongly, just based off of we have nine and a half million guests a year. This year we’ll have over 10 million guests sailing with us. We have a massive database of loyalists that our ability to generate high quality demand is, I think, very strong. That really availed itself when we began to tease it and build waiting lists and so forth that you immediately saw specifically from our loyalty guests, not just with the celebrity brand, but across our three brands, a strong desire to take a vacation on river with us. And of course that, you know, we see that every day in terms of the demand from the, from we hear from the trade and from our customers for any open spot that they can possibly get.

So we feel very good about it. And you know, I think we always just need to remember that These are not 27,500 passenger ships. These are, you know, these are, you know, you know, sub 200 passenger ships. And we’re very excited and we think that Europe is just one area of the world where our guests want to go on a river.

Naftali Holtz

Just two other things to add. As we were opening for sale, obviously the demand actually exceeded our expectations. So that gave us a lot of confidence also as well. And that’s both on the volume but also on the price. And then one other maybe data point that really was the, was encouraging to us because this is what we thought it’s going to happen is that roughly 80% of the people that booked were actually existing customers. But they’ve never experienced river cruise before. And so they’re very excited because they trust the celebrity brand to actually experience another different vacation with the celebrity brand. And so that tells you that we can have an opportunity not only to attract other river cruisers, but also expand the market.

operator

This concludes the Q and A period. I’d like to turn the call back to Naftali Holtz, CFO for any concluding remarks.

Naftali Holtz

We thank you all for your participation and interest in the company. Blake will be available for any follow ups. We wish you all a great day.

operator

Ladies and gentlemen, this concludes today’s call. Thank you for your participation. You may now disconnect.