Revenue
Earnings
The consensus estimate for earnings per share in Q4 2025 is $0.57, which implies a growth of over 1% from the prior-year period. In Q3 2025, adjusted EPS fell 26.7% YoY to $0.11.
Points to note
Southwest had forecast record revenue performance for the fourth quarter of 2025 on its last earnings call. The company’s top line is expected to have benefited from steady travel demand, with a further boost during the holiday season. The successful execution of its strategic initiatives is also expected to have benefited its performance.
LUV has guided for unit revenues in Q4 2025 to increase 1-3% YoY, with capacity up approx. 6% YoY. In Q3, unit revenue increased 0.4% on capacity up 0.8% YoY. CASM-X was up 2.5% YoY. The company expects CASM-X for the fourth quarter to be up 1.5-2.5% YoY.
Meanwhile, the ongoing economic uncertainty, continued inflationary pressures, tariff impacts and the impact from the government shutdown are all likely to have put pressure on the airline’s performance during the fourth quarter.