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Tilray Inc (NASDAQ: TLRY) Q1 2020 Earnings Call Transcript

TLRY Earnings Call - Final Transcript

Tilray Inc (TLRY) Q1 2020 earnings call dated May. 11, 2020

Corporate Participants:

Raphael Gross — Investor Relations

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

Michael Kruteck — Chief Financial Officer

Analysts:

Pablo Zuanic — Cantor Fitzgerald — Analyst

Rupesh Parikh — Oppenheimer — Analyst

Aaron Grey — Alliance Global Partners — Analyst

Tamy Chen — BMO Capital Markets — Analyst

Vivien Azer — Cowen — Analyst

Michael Lavery — Piper Jaffray — Analyst

Scott Fortune — ROTH Capital Partners — Analyst

Andrew Carter — Stifel — Analyst

Graeme Kreindler — Eight Capital — Analyst

Glenn Matson — Ladenburg Thalmann — Analyst

Mike Hickey — Benchmark Company — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to Tilray’s First Quarter 2020 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions]

I would now like to hand the conference over to your first speaker today, Mr. Raphael Gross. Thank you. Please go ahead.

Raphael Gross — Investor Relations

Good afternoon, and thank you for joining us on Tilray’s first quarter 2020 earnings conference call and webcast. On with me today are Brendan Kennedy, Chief Executive Officer; and Michael Kruteck, Chief Financial Officer.

Before we begin, please remember that during the course of our discussion, management may make forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995, as amended. These statements are based on management’s current expectations and beliefs and involve risks and uncertainties that could differ materially from actual events and those described in these forward-looking statements. Please refer to Tilray’s reports filed from time to time with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission and Canadian Securities Regulators, along with the earnings press release issued today for a detailed discussion of the risks that could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed or implied in any forward-looking statements.

Finally, please note on today’s call, management will refer to adjusted EBITDA and gross margin, excluding inventory valuation adjustments, which are non-GAAP financial measures. While the Company believes that these non-GAAP measures provide useful information for investors, the presentation of this information is not intended to be considered in isolation or as a substitute for the financial information presented in accordance with GAAP.

Please refer to today’s release for a reconciliation of these adjusted EBITDA, adjusted net loss to net loss and gross margin, excluding inventory valuation adjustments to gross margin, the most comparable measures prepared in accordance with GAAP.

Now I’d like to turn the call over to Brendan.

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Raphael, and good afternoon, everyone. Today, in my prepared remarks, I will discuss our response to the COVID-19 pandemic, recent actions taken to drive significant cost reductions and efficiencies across our business, a summary of our first quarter performance and our continued areas of focus for 2020. Afterwards, Michael Kruteck will review our quarterly results in detail.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic impact, we are committed to leading through this unprecedented period with transparent communications, empathy and a focus on executing against elements of our business within our control. The safety and well-being of our employees, patients, customers and communities where we operate remains our top priority.

We’ve created the COVID-19 task force at Tilray, which works collaboratively with our senior leadership to actively monitor and adapt our operations to this evolving situation. Throughout the first quarter and the week since, we have taken numerous actions to protect our employees and our business. At our operating facilities around the globe, we’ve enhanced safety and sanitation protocols, including physical distancing measures, consistent with the recommendations of federal and local health authorities.

All employees that have the ability to work remotely are doing so today and we have implemented a business continuity plan. I’m incredibly proud of our global team, which has worked together to ensure safety, while minimizing potential impacts to our operations. We continue to provide safe, high-quality products to our consumers and patients around the world.

We have not seen any material changes to our supply chain related to COVID-19, with the exception of brief interruptions to the provinces receiving shipments. While COVID-19 has created headwinds, we should not lose sight that legal cannabis in a net new product category that represents an enormous global growth opportunity. Despite COVID-19 emergency orders, cannabis was recognized as an essential business in Canada, Germany, Portugal, Australia and multiple U.S. states. This validates our thesis that cannabis is a mainstream product consumed by mainstream patients and consumers.

We’re also seeing signs across the industry that cannabis is a counter-cyclical product, which we have long believed to be true. We believe that this pandemic will demonstrate that legal cannabis behaves more like a consumer staple. In other words, things people need, rather than indulgent items such as luxury products. We have patients and customers who are depending on us to operate our business with as little disruption as possible. We remain focused on satisfying our customers and patients, and we continue to prepare for any further contingencies that may result from the pandemic.

I’ll now discuss actions that we’ve taken to drive significant efficiencies and reduce costs across our business. Unrelated to COVID-19, at the start of the first quarter, we began implementing a comprehensive global cost efficiency plan. We have communicated previously that we plan to drive to adjusted EBITDA profitability by the end of the year. Of course, the COVID-19 pandemic provides a level of uncertainty for Tilray and the broader industry. That said, based on what we know today, we believe that this goal is achievable and we are executing accordingly.

Beginning in February and as discussed during our last earnings call, we began restructuring our organization to better align with the competitive landscape, by reviewing each of our operating businesses to reduce duplication and costs, with a focus on generating return on capital and aligning supply with market demand. While these changes were difficult, our success to date as one of the leading cannabis companies has been made possible by our ability to pivot and react when needed.

In the long term, this will help to ensure we can manage our costs and continue to be good stewards of shareholder capital. Throughout the first quarter, we took additional action to manage costs and drive efficiencies. In total, we estimate that we will achieve approximately $40 million in annualized cost savings, relative to the run rate of our fourth quarter 2019. These changes are substantially complete as of today, and the most significant cost savings components include the following.

First, the corporate headcount reduction. Second, operational efficiencies at our cultivation sites in Canada and Portugal, including implementation of automation. Thirdly, transitioning our Canadian adult-use sales to Kindred, a special cannabis brokerage. Kindred will act as our exclusive sales agent for all provinces and territories, excluding Quebec. Through this relationship, we intend to leverage their resources and brand-building services to grow our footprint across the country.

For the first quarter, there were $2.5 million of cost savings embedded within our results. The financial impact of these improvements will be more clearly realized starting in our second quarter, before ramping up the full benefits in our third quarter. We also closed two separate transactions during the first quarter, a $60 million debt facility and a $90 million equity raise, which Michael will address in more detail. With the steps we’ve taken to drive cost efficiencies and additional cash on the balance sheet, we feel that the business is on strong footing and well positioned to compete in the current market environment.

With respect to the first quarter itself, I’m pleased to report strong financial results. Revenue increased 126% year-over-year to $52.1 million. This marked our highest quarterly revenue on record and consisted of sequential quarterly growth across all of our core businesses, global medical, Canada adult-use and hemp products.

Within global medical, its revenue in aggregate grew 105%, Canada medical grew 35% and international medical grew 221% and Canada adult-use grew 165%. We believe we are well positioned to compete on the global stage with a diversified asset base in facilities and offices in Canada, United States, Europe, Australia and Latin America.

Our adult-use brands are in 11 provinces and territories today, with Cannabis 2.0 products in nine regions where authorization allows. We are committed to continuing to expand distribution and market share. As we see regulation shift in certain provinces such as Alberta and Quebec, we are well positioned to serve those markets as well.

Our medical cannabis products are available in 15 countries on five continents and our hemp products are available in over 17,000 retailers in 20 countries around the world. We are the only cannabis company to have two GMP-certified cultivation facilities in Canada and Portugal, allowing us to serve international medical markets in an efficient manner. We have participated in cannabis clinical trials in the United States and around the world, furthering our commitment to cannabis research and product development.

Our joint venture with Anheuser-Busch InBev, the Fluent Beverage Company, was the first to launch two CBD-infused beverage products in Canada. Manitoba Harvest provides us with the hemp products platform in the United States and 19 other countries around the world.

At the end of the quarter, on March 31, we announced that our Board of Directors unanimously approved the pro rata release of 11 million shares of Class 2 common stock held by the former equity holders of Privateer Holdings. The release took effect on April 3, and the shares released are part of the previously announced release of Tilray stock over a two-year period. We will continue to proactively manage the release of the remaining shares.

For the remainder of the year, we are focused on executing on profitable long-term growth opportunities, while continuing to drive cost efficiencies. Our efforts and energy will be directed towards building our three existing businesses, which are our top priority, the Canada adult-use market, the global medical cannabis market and the global hemp products. These goals will be accomplished by continuing to expand the sales of our existing Cannabis 2.0 products in Canada, as well as introduce new form factors, completing the build-out of our facility in Portugal and obtaining our final GMP certification there, exporting Tilray medical products to new countries and expanding our medical cannabis product offerings in the international markets we currently serve, growing our global medical, Canadian adult-use and hemp products market share and aggressively driving cost efficiencies, and finally, entering into new strategic partnerships that enable us to further accelerate our growth.

Turning to the broader industry and the markets in which we operate, let me reiterate, that there is significant demand for quality products at scale and we are in the very early days of this industry’s growth. Our revenue growth across all channels points to a paradigm shift and the use of cannabis both as a medicine and a mainstream consumer product. And as the legal cannabis sales grow in the countries where it is already allowed, it will further the case for legalization around the world, first for medical cannabis followed by adult-use.

We’ve already done much of the heavy-lifting by strategically investing in key markets across the global footprint to secure raw material supply, advance research and development and build brands and relationships with patients and consumers. We are well positioned to enter new legal cannabis markets, when legally permitted to do so and have a solid foundation to continue to expand our hemp foods business globally.

To conclude, we intend to win globally by building the world’s most trusted and valued cannabis and hemp company with a portfolio of best-in-class brands supported by a multinational supply chain. I firmly believe that we have the right team, assets and strengthened balance sheet to execute on our strategy.

With that, I’d like to turn things over to our new Chief Financial Officer, Michael Kruteck to review our financials.

Michael Kruteck — Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Brendan. And thanks to everyone joining us on today’s call and webcast. Please note that all of the financial information we discuss today is prepared in accordance with U.S. GAAP and is in U.S. dollars unless otherwise indicated.

As Brendan indicated, we are very pleased with our first quarter year-over-year and sequential revenue growth and our adjusted EBITDA improvement on a sequential basis. Notably, gross margin excluding inventory valuation adjustments improved both sequentially and compared to the year ago period. We were also successful in strengthening our balance sheet with the closing of the $60 million debt facility and an $85.3 million net equity offering. These two transactions allowed us to close the quarter with $174 million in cash, a balance that will provide us with sufficient capital to focus on our path to profitability, a theme I will describe in more detail shortly.

Focusing on our quarterly results in more detail. First quarter revenue grew more than $29 million or 126% to approximately $52.1 million or CAD70.7 million compared to the first quarter last year. This growth was largely due to increased volumes in all channels, excluding bulk and the impact of full quarter of hemp product sales compared to a partial quarter in 2019.

On a sequential basis, revenue grew 11% from the $46.9 million achieved in our fourth quarter last year. Growth was driven by a 23% increase in adult-use sales and a 14.3% increase in hemp sales, partially offset by a decline in bulk sales.

Our segment revenue mix during the first quarter was 59% cannabis and 41% hemp, compared to 76% cannabis and 24% hemp in the first quarter last year. We generated 165% year-over-year revenue growth in our adult-use business or $20.9 million compared to $7.9 million in the prior year period. On a sequential basis, adult-use grew 23% over the $17 million in the fourth quarter last year.

Our international medical business revenues grew 221% to $5.8 million in the first quarter compared to $1.8 million in the year ago period and increased nearly 45% sequentially from $4 million in the fourth quarter last year.

Our Canadian medical business revenues increased 35% from the prior year to $4.1 million and 21.6% sequentially.

Revenue of hemp products more than tripled compared to the partial prior-year period, growing to $21.3 million from $6 million. On a sequential basis, we saw growth of approximately 14% from the $18.7 million generated in the fourth quarter of last year, driven primarily by food products.

Finally, and as previously indicated, our bulk sales fell to zero from $4.8 million in the prior year as we focused on higher margin opportunities. However, we may see some bulk revenue in future quarters depending on opportunistic sales and the need for inventory rebalancing.

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Going a little deeper on our adult-use. Adult-use sales represented 68% of cannabis revenue in the first quarter compared to 45% in the year ago period, generally due to increased retail distribution in Canada and the introduction of new Cannabis 2.0 form factors. We expect adult-use to continue to be a driver of revenue growth in future quarters.

On an aggregate basis, our average net selling price per gram was $6.79 in the quarter, a change of $0.45 from Q1 2019. Our average net selling price for cannabis flower was $5.28 or CAD7.16 for the first quarter, a decrease of 32% or 6% from the prior year period. The average net selling price, excluding excise taxes for adult-use was $3.49, CAD4.73 per gram for the first quarter of 2020. The price decreases are largely due to a shift in product and channel mix over the course of the last 12 months, partially offset by the increased sales of Cannabis 2.0 products during Q1 of this year. Generally, we expect our average selling price to increase over time, as we increase our sales of international medical cannabis and continue to introduce new form factors in the Canadian adult-use market.

Moving on to operational metrics related to cannabis. Total kilogram equivalent sold nearly doubled to 5,794 kilograms from 3,012 kilograms in the prior year’s first quarter. This growth resulted from increases in adult-use cannabis flower sales and the increase of Cannabis 2.0 products.

Gross margin for the quarter was 21%, a significant increase over the negative margins in the fourth quarter of 2019, and a 200 basis point decline compared to the first quarter of 2019, partially due to a write-down of approximately $4 million in the quarter. First quarter gross margin, excluding inventory valuation adjustments, increased to 29% compared to 24% in the fourth quarter 2019 and 28% in the first quarter of 2019.

Gross margin for cannabis, excluding inventory valuation and adjustments decreased to 20% from 23% compared to the fourth quarter 2019, while gross margins for hemp, excluding inventory valuation and adjustments, decreased to 41% from 44% compared to the fourth [Phonetic] quarter of 2019. Going forward, we expect gross margins to increase sequentially as we see our cost reductions take hold and we gain greater scale and benefit from positive product and channel mix, particularly in the second half of the year with growth in international medical and Cannabis 2.0 adult-use products in Canada.

Moving to expenses. Total operating expenses increased by $48.3 million to $82.1 million compared to the prior year. The current year expenses included a $29.8 million non-cash impairment charge primarily related to our ABG agreement. Given the uncertainty of the FDA stance on the sale of CBD products in the U.S., we concluded the near-term expectations for sales under this agreement did not support our balance sheet value.

Q1 2020 operating expenses, excluding impairments and write-downs, totaled $52.3 million and represented a 55% increase from Q1 2019. As 2020 progresses, we expect to see a meaningful decrease in operating expenses as a result of the cost savings actions Brendan mentioned earlier.

The net loss for the quarter was $184.1 million or $1.73 per share, compared to a loss of $29.4 million or $0.31 per share for the first quarter of 2019. The increased loss was largely due to the impact of the change in the fair value of the warrant liability, the impairment of assets and the loss on foreign exchange attributed to the weakening of the Canadian dollar. We also saw an increase in operating expenses to support our continued growth initiatives and severance costs related to headcount reductions.

We reported an adjusted EBITDA loss of $19.7 million compared to a loss of $15.3 million in the first quarter last year. The increase in the year-over-year adjusted EBITDA loss was primarily due to increased costs in SG&A related to commercial growth initiatives and increased operating costs related to our cultivation efforts. On a sequential basis, our adjusted EBITDA loss reflected a 44% improvement from the $35.3 million loss in Q4 and was generally due to cost reductions and operational efficiencies.

Turning to the balance sheet. We ended the quarter with cash and cash equivalents of approximately $174 million. During the quarter, we closed a $60 million senior credit facility on February 28 with a two-year term and a registered offering of shares with net proceeds of $85.3 million on March 17. We believe we have sufficient capital and access to capital to manage our operations and execute our plans to achieve positive EBITDA. While the impact of COVID-19 has created a new level of uncertainty, we remain focused on taking all actions within our control to deliver solid results in 2020 and are committed to working towards adjusted EBITDA profitability in Q4 of this year.

In reviewing cash flow for 2020, we expect our cash requirements for operating cash flow of $35 million to $45 million, plus cash interest and principal payments of approximately $40 million and capex of $40 million to $45 million for a total of $110 million to 125 million. The capex number is slightly higher than originally indicated on our previous conference call, partially due to some carryover from 2019 and partially due to our efforts to finish Phase 2 of our Portuguese facility. Completing Phase 2 in Portugal as a single project is more efficient and has a better return. Due to COVID-19, however, we may experience construction delays in Portugal, which may reduce actual capex for the year.

Going forward, we are focused on our path to profitability. We have taken actions to be leaner and more efficient in our business and we’ll continue to evaluate our cost structure throughout the year to identify additional areas for improvement.

Just as important as our cost cutting efforts, we will continue to drive sales growth across our business. We will continue to build on our existing 2.0 products and introduce new form factors. We will introduce our supply of GMP product from Portugal into the existing and new international medical market. We will continue to expand the presence of hemp products in new retail settings online and brick and mortar, and we will leverage our new relationship with Kindred sales force in the adult-use channel. As we strengthen our sales profile and work to capture a sizable share of the global cannabis market, we will manage our production costs in an effort to grow gross margin sequentially and generate positive adjusted EBITDA.

To conclude, with our focus on managing costs, strengthening our balance sheet, driving growth in our key channels and markets and delivering shareholder value, we are positioning Tilray to be a leaner and more efficient leader in the cannabis and hemp food categories. We continue to believe Tilray is positioned for growth and profitability in the future as we establish ourselves as the most trusted cannabis and hemp company.

Brendan and I are now available to take your questions. Operator?

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you, sir. [Operator Instructions] I show our first question comes from Pablo Zuanic from Cantor Fitzgerald. Please go ahead.

Pablo Zuanic — Cantor Fitzgerald — Analyst

Hello, everyone, and congratulations on the results. Just if you can give some color on that 23% growth in recreational sales, how much of that was flower? How much of that was 2.0? And related to that, in the previous call, you talked about the Canadian market broadly doubling this year in 2020. Are you still okay with that projection, given the uncertainty around COVID? Thank you.

Michael Kruteck — Chief Financial Officer

Hi, Pablo. Thank you very much. So, we saw a, primarily flower growth was a driver. We did see very good growth in our vapes as well as our edibles. But the primary growth was the flower.

Pablo Zuanic — Cantor Fitzgerald — Analyst

Right. And regarding the market growth projections that you gave before, I’m just trying to understand the impact from COVID in terms of overall sales. There was some pantry loading in late March. What’s happening in April? Just throw some color about the distribution?

Michael Kruteck — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. So, we did see a bit of a bump in March. But what we have seen is that things settled down in April so far at a level that was higher than what we were seeing in January and February. So, we went through January, February. We saw an increase in March sales as a result of people probably buying in as a function of COVID, and then what we’ve seen is settling in at a rate that is higher than where we were in January and February.

Pablo Zuanic — Cantor Fitzgerald — Analyst

Thank you very much.

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

I’ll just add one point there. I think a lot of the revenue growth in terms of the adult-use in Canada is really going to be dependent upon the number of retail stores that open up. And currently, we’re tracking about 925 licensed retailers in Canada, licensed adult-use retailers in Canada. And the question of where do we end the year, do we ended the year at 1,100 or 1,200, if we end 2020 with 1,200 retail stores open in Canada, I think that doubling could prove to be accurate. What we do know is that we will continue to see adult-use growth year-over-year in Canada as more and more consumers transition from the illicit market to the legal market.

Pablo Zuanic — Cantor Fitzgerald — Analyst

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Rupesh Parikh from Oppenheimer. Please go ahead.

Rupesh Parikh — Oppenheimer — Analyst

Good afternoon, and thanks for taking my questions. So, I just wanted to go back to expenses. So, definitely a lot of progress on your expenses sequentially, especially, the G&A line. So if my math is correct, I think your adjusted G&A is close to that $15 million or so range for Q1. Do you still see an ability to continue reducing the G&A line, I guess for the balance of the year? Or I just want to get some more thoughts on the run rate for that line?

Michael Kruteck — Chief Financial Officer

Yes. Hey, Rupesh. Thanks very much. So yeah, what we took out a fair bit in the G&A line, that was about, of the $40 million, probably about $30 million of that and then non-headcount related is probably $10 million to $11 million. And so we’re looking, I mean, we want to get the percent to revenue down to a manageable level. And so I think, when you look at our Q1, we were roughly about 30% — well, 33%, if you just look at G&A, if you include the sales and marketing, which is where we took some cost out, it’s 67%. We’re looking to bring that down into the high 20s, if not on some of the lines, kind of the low 20s as we go through the year. And so, and part of that will come through COGS. We’ve got about $8 million that will come through COGS. And the remainder of that of the $20 million, it’s $8 million, so we will get $22 million or $32 million that will come through the, I’m sorry, of the — excuse me, of the headcount, we see about $8 million coming from COGS and $18 million, $19 million coming through SG&A.

Rupesh Parikh — Oppenheimer — Analyst

Okay.

Michael Kruteck — Chief Financial Officer

And when we look at the G&A stuff, it’s across the board, it was T&E, it was professional fees, public relations and a bunch of different things.

Rupesh Parikh — Oppenheimer — Analyst

Okay. That’s helpful. And I guess shifting gears to international medical, at least for us, that’s been harder to model just given, I guess, the ramp and some of the volatility within that business. Any more color you can provide in terms of how you guys are thinking about the ramp for the balance of the year on the international medical front?

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

Hi, Rupesh. This is Brendan. Maybe I will start that answer and then turn it over to Michael. I mean, one of the key milestones in Q1 is that the first time, our international medical cannabis revenues exceeded our Canadian medical cannabis revenues. And that will never — it will never go back, right. International medical will always be in excess of our Canadian medical cannabis revenue, and we expect that growth to continue on a quarter-over-quarter basis throughout the rest of this year until next year.

And so while we achieved one milestone, I think the next milestones that I’m paying attention to is that, at some point, over the next three or four quarters, our revenue internationally will exceed our revenue in Canada and that will be an important milestone for us as a Company.

Looking at international medical cannabis revenue in Q1, a lot of that was driven by exports, not only from Canada, but from our Portuguese facility, which is online. And so that growth occurred in exports from Portugal to Germany and so we expect that trend to continue in Q2, in Q3 and Q4 of this year.

Michael, maybe do you want to be a little more specific?

Michael Kruteck — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. So when we look at our mix, just on the cannabis side of things, you look at Q1 2020 and international medical made up about 19% of that mix. And we see that growing into the, I guess, mid kind of 20 ranges where we’d like to see it.

Rupesh Parikh — Oppenheimer — Analyst

Okay. Great. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Aaron Grey from Alliance Global Partners. Please go ahead.

Aaron Grey — Alliance Global Partners — Analyst

Hi, good afternoon and thanks for the questions. First question I had was just in terms of ASP for adult-use market in Canada, you might see a uptick sequentially. Can you just talk how to kind of look at that line item in the next couple of quarters as we do start to see more of novel form factors increase in terms of mix of their sales there and just your expectation there? Thank you.

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

Yes, so on the selling price, we were seeing that, we expect to see some pretty good growth in our 2.0 products, in particular the vapes and some more edibles as we roll out additional products. And so I would say that, that growth there should help our average selling price pretty significantly as we move through the year. We’re seeing very good growth in the vapes right now and our edibles are being taken out pretty, pretty well also. So it’s really just I think the 2.0 form factors. And we’re constantly looking at our pricing to see if there is an opportunity to take some price, especially if we look at the higher potency product. But at the moment, I think it’s more of the 2.0 and the adult-rec space, where we do see the opportunity to take additional price or actually just increase the overall average selling price that you’ve got is through the growth of our international medical or Canadian Medical, both of which we are seeing some pretty solid growth trends at the moment.

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Aaron Grey — Alliance Global Partners — Analyst

All right, great. Thank you. And just one more if I could. In terms of your commentary on reaching EBITDA positive by 4Q ’20. Can you just talk about underlying assumption for gross margins, I believe last call you talked about trying to reach 40% to 45% gross margins by the end of 2020. Is that still the target? And what’s embedded in that expectation for reaching the EBITDA positive? Thank you.

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

So, on the gross margins, I don’t know that we’re necessarily calling a specific number. I think we are looking for sequential improvement in our gross margins and that will be a function of just getting more efficient at what we’re doing as we start to produce more products in our Portuguese facility, we should see some very good leverage there. We’re increasing the efficiencies in our Canadian operations and are looking for efficiencies there. The head count and the cuts that we have recently made will show up in COGS to some degree. So I think we’ve got a lot of moving parts.

The one other thing that I would mention about our gross margins is that we’ll probably see a little bit of pressure on that due to the fact that we’re accounting for our by-product on a zero basis. And so, I guess historically what’s happened is that by-product has been built up on the balance sheet and that’s why there have been significant write-offs for us as well as for I guess in our industry, other industry players. And what we’re doing is, except for a few instances, we are attributing zero value to that byproduct. So, everything that we sell will have all the cost structure associated with it so that we don’t have any write-offs at the end of the year. So we’re essentially taking the byproduct through the P&L on an ongoing basis. So, that’ll be a little bit of a change for us. We won’t be building up that balance on the inventory on the balance sheet. And so the gross margins will look a little bit depressed as a function of that. And, but otherwise. We do expect to see sequential growth in gross margins.

Aaron Grey — Alliance Global Partners — Analyst

All right, great. Thanks for that color. That’s helpful, and I’ll jump back in the queue.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Tamy Chen from BMO Capital Markets. Please go ahead.

Tamy Chen — BMO Capital Markets — Analyst

Thanks. Hi, guys. First question is, just wanted a bit more color on the flower segment just what’s driving the growth in the quarter? And where you see the competitive dynamics going forward? I think we’re seeing this apparent continued shift to value larger pack sizes. I just wanted to understand how Tilray’s thinking about this? And what this, Brendan, I think you mentioned there is a supply disruption you’ve been seeing recently, just wondering what that is exactly and is that over now?

Michael Kruteck — Chief Financial Officer

So, unfortunately I don’t have pack size information for you. I can try to get that and provide that to you, but I don’t have that information to help you understand whether that’s the driver of the growth in flower right now. What I would say is that we are seeing growth in flower across all categories. Obviously, we would see more growth in flower at higher potency if there were more available higher potency product in the marketplace or if we were producing a bit more of it on our own. But we are seeing growth across the spectrum in the flower product.

And that goes for I think our medical also. We’re seeing good growth in our Canadian medical. And in fact, I think, during the COVID piece of this is that we did see some increase in patient counts, which manifest itself in increased sales as well. And again, like I mentioned earlier on the adult uses that we did see that settle into a higher level of growth in April so far compared to our January and February quarter. We saw the same thing in Germany although it’s a little bit harder to de-estimate that just because that market is growing pretty rapidly for us. So, we are seeing good growth just across the board in flower.

I’m sorry, I didn’t catch your second question.

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

I got it Michael. Hi Tamy.

Tamy Chen — BMO Capital Markets — Analyst

Hi.

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

Our supply chain disruptions due to COVID were pretty minimal. I mentioned them at the beginning of the call, mostly around adult use distribution in Canada and really that was mostly in March where some of our shipments, some of our deliveries were delayed by a few days here and there. But overall we have not seen significant COVID-related distribution challenges in Canada or internationally in Q1 and throughout April and the first part May.

Tamy Chen — BMO Capital Markets — Analyst

Got it, okay. And my follow-up is, on the German market, I think there has been sort of a change to the regulatory environment in terms of how medical cannabis would be reimbursed that there may be a cap now. So, I’m just wondering if that is indeed the case? And what your expectation is with respect to how it could possibly impact pricing or growth of the market? Thanks.

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, we don’t see it significantly impacting our pricing. What is changing is some of the market that, at the retail level, and when I say retail in Germany, that means that means pharmacies, where the product is distributed to patients. In Germany medical cannabis is normally distributed through the pharmacies and the German pharmaceutical regulations, there were some changes to how those pharmacies can some limit, some cash growth on the market of medical cannabis in that regulatory framework. But it should have fairly minimal impact to us in terms of revenue and margin. We continue to see increasing demand in Germany and throughout Europe for medical cannabis on a month-over-month, quarter-over-quarter basis, both over the last, I guess, since the start of the year and throughout this year.

Tamy Chen — BMO Capital Markets — Analyst

Okay. Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Vivien Azer from Cowen. Please go ahead.

Vivien Azer — Cowen — Analyst

Thank you. Good evening. I hope everyone is healthy and safe. I wanted to dive in on the North American hemp business please. We know from last year that, that business is a little bit seasonal because it’s tied to school attendance, which is why you had a bit of a lighter selling period in calendar 3Q. So, with kids in North America broadly not going to school right now, I’m curious on what you guys are seeing in that business both kind of at the end of March, but also in the April, because it seems for the broader FMCG categories in particular, food and beverage, some categories got a pantry load and that demand has held up and other categories have seen a pantry load and then not kind of subsequent incremental demand. So, any color on that would be helpful. Thanks.

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, on a sequential basis we saw a growth, I should say. Hi, Vivien, thanks for your question. On a sequential basis, we saw a growth of approximately 14% and from $18.7 million in Q4, almost entirely driven by food products. And the, it’s hard to answer the question because we happen to be in additional Costco stores in both Canada and in the U.S., where they have something to called a, Costco has something called a monthly value mailer. So we’ve seen significant demand for Manitoba Harvest hemp food products, not only from Costco, but from Amazon in Q1. And that demand has continued into April and May. And so, typically in Q3, in the past we have seen a downtick in revenue for all the Manitoba Harvest food products, mostly due to consumers routines being disrupted by summer and it’s hard to know whether we will see that change this summer and as a result of the disruption that’s already underway.

Vivien Azer — Cowen — Analyst

Okay. So just to summarize, probably some portion of the growth came from Costco, but you haven’t seen a material change in consumer demand patterns over the last three months or so?

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

We have not.

Vivien Azer — Cowen — Analyst

Okay. That’s perfect. Thanks for the help.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Michael Lavery from Piper Sandler. Please go ahead.

Michael Lavery — Piper Jaffray — Analyst

Thank you. Good evening, and welcome, Michael. Just was wondering if you could give a little more color on your medium longer-term outlook, obviously if you been mindful of your capital allocation and position you have some sort of plan. Can you maybe at least just at a high level. Give us a sense of the timing for something like EBITDA positive or maybe more importantly cash flow positive and how far away that might be?

Michael Kruteck — Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Michael. The question is, I think as Brendan and I both indicated is that we’re focused on the Q4 period for the EBITDA break-even or positive for 2020. And I mean given what we see today, we think that’s something that is achievable. We don’t know what we may see given COVID and other things in the marketplace, but our focus is squarely on trying to achieve that goal. And that’s what — that’s how we’re operating the business. In terms of the cash flow…

Michael Lavery — Piper Jaffray — Analyst

Yes, right, the cash flow piece to clarify that.

Michael Kruteck — Chief Financial Officer

I’m sorry.

Michael Lavery — Piper Jaffray — Analyst

Yeah but on the cash flow side, you were about to go there, sorry I interrupted you.

Michael Kruteck — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I mean, look, I’ve been here 100 days, and I’m getting my arms around a lot of things that I know, necessarily have a clear view cash flow positive at the moment. We’re working towards the EBITDA component. We are also looking at all of our capex. And when we look at capex this year, this should be a big year, I think that where we finish significant projects particular our Portuguese Phase 2, we won’t see that coming in 2021. So I think we’ve got some pressure that comes off cash into 2021. And with the cost cuts that we’ve got, I think we’ll be driving hard towards trying to achieve a timely goal of cash flow positive. I just don’t have the visibility that I kind of put out a time frame at this exact moment.

Michael Lavery — Piper Jaffray — Analyst

And just on the broader industry, do you have any sense of how something like COVID-19 might be impacting illicit trade and would digital or delivery, for example, be driving share gains for the legal market?

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, that’s something I’ve been thinking about a bit over the last two weeks. You could — one could argue that Canadian consumers are, at the time of COVID are more interested in obtaining a product from a licensed retailer or a licensed producer. In that, they are able to obtain the product from — through the mail now or via curbside pick-up, which may lead to fewer interactions as opposed to traditional illicit transaction. Obviously, some of the illicit providers in Canada do have online and they do deliver through the mail. But I think as people are concerned about quality and safety, I think that COVID may lead to a faster migration of Canadian consumers from the illicit market to the legal market. There’s a lot of speculation in that statement. But it certainly seems as if that’s a possibility based on sort of the revenue growth we saw in March from January, February and continuation of that growth into April.

Michael Lavery — Piper Jaffray — Analyst

Okay. Great. Thanks very much.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Scott Fortune from ROTH Capital Partners. Please go ahead.

Scott Fortune — ROTH Capital Partners — Analyst

Thank you for taking the call. Good afternoon. Just a little bit more color on what you’re seeing in Ontario. They were wanting to bring on fair amount of retail stores here in April, kind of that’s key consumer access. What we’re seeing in the U.S. is on the curbside and delivery less transactions like you meant that these are much higher transactions. But I just wanted to get a sense for Ontario and the ramp from a store in consumer access from that side as you view it.

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

We’re seeing continued licensing. We track them on a provincial basis, and right now, we’re looking at roughly 56 [Phonetic] licensed retailers in Ontario, which is a significant growth from where they — where Ontario ended the year last year. And we expect that growth to continue throughout the remainder of the year. And the question will be, so where do we end up in terms of end of this year? And so in a number of those big retailers that open up. And last year, we were basing our model on somewhere between 800 to 1,200, being open at the end of 2020 and it looks like barring some issue with COVID at the end of the year, it looks like we will end up at the end of this year somewhere between 1,100 and 1,250, which I think would be positive for the growth of the adult-use market in Canada.

Also Read:  The Coca-Cola Company (NYSE: KO) Q4 2019 Earnings Call Transcript

Scott Fortune — ROTH Capital Partners — Analyst

Okay. Great. And just as a follow-up. If you get 1,100, 1,200 in that means, you’re getting to adjusted EBITDA positive pretty much on track from that standpoint, unless would make it little more difficult. Is that kind of how you guys are looking at it?

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

That’s exactly what we were looking last year. And it would be challenging to get there if we ended 2020 with 800 stores or 900 stores open in Canada. It makes it a bit easier if we end 2020 somewhere on the 1,100, 1,200 stores. That’s one of the key drivers. Plus the other key driver for us is continued international growth and the ability to ship products from our facility in Portugal to other countries around the world.

Scott Fortune — ROTH Capital Partners — Analyst

Great. I appreciate the color. Thanks, guys.

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Scott.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Andrew Carter from Stifel. Please go ahead.

Andrew Carter — Stifel — Analyst

Hey. Thanks. Good evening. I just wanted to ask because you’ve kind of alluded to kind of the market, the big surge in March and then kind of returning to normal levels in April and March. Is that what you’re seeing kind of on the shipment side of things or provinces, kind of, are in lockstep with where they were in the quarter, kind of matching that consumption? Or are they reducing inventory levels? And I know there were some closures, but have they increased the order size? Can you help us understand that?

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. So, we saw April significantly from January and February, but March even more from January and February. And a lot of that was driven by both consumer and patient, essentially stock up and pantry loading in Canada. In the midst of all of that, I think that the Canadian distributors, primarily Crown Corporations, decided to roll out Cannabis 2.0 products really differently from the way that they rolled out Cannabis 1.0 products in October of 2018, — what I mean by that — what I mean is that, in October 2018, a lot of the provinces placed really large orders and wanted the products in stock and inventory. This time around, they placed smaller orders, but they placed them much more frequently. And many times in December and January, we were getting a second order from a province, almost essentially as soon as we shipped their first quarter. And so the frequency of their purchases has increased significantly, and which is very different from how they were managing their supply chain during first go-around a little over a years ago.

Andrew Carter — Stifel — Analyst

Okay. And then to a point you’ve shown up with pretty robust suite of products and only a handful of producers can say that. Are you seeing the provinces increase their order sizes from you? Obviously, the frequency is kind of a burden on your supply chain. And do you need it to go back to, like higher orders less frequent in order to achieve kind of that more profitable Canadian template?

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

I think that they — well, actually, there were a couple stories around in products that the provincial buyers bought that didn’t sell. So some of our peers had issues with returns. If they were looking to avoid that, this go around. And they’re also looking to see who was actually going to be able to deliver on their promises. And so we produced a wide range of Cannabis 2.0 products from cheese and chocolates to date. And we were learning — and part of what happened in Q1 is we were learning along quiet. So, we were learning what Canadian consumers were interested, which form factors, which flavors, which products. And I think that led to the buyers buying, the way that they bought. The frequency — as the frequency has increased and the retailers are getting more sell-through information, I think we may see some of the quantities increase throughout the rest of the year. But I think the buyers would just try not to get burned or place the wrong bets at this go rounds as opposed to what happened the year after.

Andrew Carter — Stifel — Analyst

Thanks. I’ll pass it on.

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Andrew.

Operator

Thank you. Next question comes from Graeme Kreindler from Eight Capital. Please go ahead.

Graeme Kreindler — Eight Capital — Analyst

Hi. Good afternoon, and thanks for taking my questions. Brendan, I wanted to follow-up on the comment you made about Tilray looking to pursue new partnerships. I was wondering if you could provide some more detail on what specific verticals you’re looking at, what stage discussions you are, right now? And have the talks in general, have they changed at all in terms of what’s being discussed or what’s being prioritized now versus the way you might have had those discussions about a year or two ago? Thanks.

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I think Constellation’s entry into the industry and Altria’s entry into the industry over — it depends on how you look at it, two years ago, a year and a half ago, I think it scared a lot of people generally in beverage, tobacco and CBD space. And so the conversations a year ago were much more, they were much more educational. So, a lot of things we had for educating some pretty large companies about the cannabis industry. And they were — they tended to be in a bit of panic in trying to understand the industry in a hurry.

That wasn’t the case, Anheuser-Busch InBev. They started looking at the industry early and — our first conversation with them, and when we announced the joint venture, it took about a year. So, they had a really patient methodical approach. I would say that, generally today, companies, Fortune 500 companies that are looking to enter the industry are taking a much more methodical approach. And that means lots of meetings, lots of due diligence, lots of tours. I also — I think that a year and a half ago, the valuations of companies in this industry and the volatility scared off a lot of those Fortune 500 companies. And the more realistic valuations today have peaked their interest more. I guess my final point would be, we’re seeing more interest from international partners who are looking at other CBD products in certain countries and medical, pharmaceutical products, compounding products in certain regions of the world. And so a lot of the conversations we’re having today, our focus is on international markets, not domestic markets to cannabis.

Graeme Kreindler — Eight Capital — Analyst

Okay. I appreciate the color there. And then just as a follow-up question. Just to dig a bit deeper in terms of the sales increase seen in the hemp segment here. I’m just wondering if you could, it sounds like most of our growth there was driven on the food side. I was wondering if you could just give us a bit of an update on how things are progressing on the CBD side. We obviously know that there is a challenged regulatory environment in the United States right now with respect to those products. But just wondering if you saw any sort of interesting trends or significant movement quarter-over-quarter? Thank you.

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

Yeah. I enjoyed predicting how this industry is going to change over time. What’s challenging — what is challenging is predicting anything involving the FDA. And so our strategy for the U.S. is focused around building that portfolio of trusted CBD brands in states where we’re legally permitted to do so. We feel that we’re ready to address the federal CBD market once further clarity is provided by the FDA. But it’s really difficult to know today when that opportunity will become a reality in the U.S. I think that’s — I think a lot of it will depend on what happens with the election in November. I think one of the disappointment around what’s happened over the last quarter is that a lot of the ballot initiatives in individual U.S. dates, primarily Red Republican states, they can be really difficult to collect ballot initiative signatures. And so I think we’re going to see fewer states have successful ballot initiatives in November. But I think, overall, it will be interesting to see how Presidential candidates address both CBD, I guess, not both, CBD legalization, medical cannabis legalization and legalization for adult-use in the U.S. between now and November.

Graeme Kreindler — Eight Capital — Analyst

Okay. Appreciate it. Thank you.

Michael Kruteck — Chief Financial Officer

Thank you.

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Andrew.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question comes from Glenn Mattson from Ladenburg and Thalmann. Please go ahead.

Glenn Matson — Ladenburg Thalmann — Analyst

Hi. Thanks for taking the question. I really know it’s late in the call. So, I’ll try to be quick. But just one quick one on the cash balance as it stands. Should you achieve your guidance results as far as cash burn and capex and the money spent on interest and debt payment and things like that? Where would you stand at the end of the year at that level of cash, that math would project out too? Is that a level that you’re comfortable with? Or do you feel like the business needs to have more capital as you go into 2021?

Michael Kruteck — Chief Financial Officer

Hey, Glenn. Thanks for the question. I think that the cash balance will be partially dependent upon how much we access the ATM. We have $258 million left on the ATM and depending upon how much of that we choose to access will kind of determine where we end up with the cash balance at the end of the year and then what that looks like into 2021.

Glenn Matson — Ladenburg Thalmann — Analyst

Okay. Great. One more quick one if I could. I guess, maybe as I look at my model and I think about this year. It would appear that perhaps I had to lean a little more on revenue growth from international medical. Could you give us a sense? Can you say what do you think your market share maybe is in international medical? And would you expect your growth this year to come from further market share gains? Or would it be, maybe you have a projection about what that German market can grow at this year? Just some color around that. And that’ll be it for me. Thanks.

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

It is really hard to predict market share in Germany today. What we are seeing is that there aren’t a whole lot of products in the market today. Two of our competitors there essentially don’t have much products to be found, due to some supply constraints on their side. But we do expect revenue growth internationally and on a quarter-over-quarter basis throughout the year. The bulk of that being in Germany, although we see continued growth in Australia, New Zealand, Latin America and some small growth, temporary growth in other EU countries.

Glenn Matson — Ladenburg Thalmann — Analyst

Great. That’s it for me. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our last question comes from Mike Hickey from Benchmark Company. Please go ahead.

Mike Hickey — Benchmark Company — Analyst

Hey, Brendan and Michael. Hopefully, you guys are good. Thanks for squeezing me in here late. I appreciate it. Curious first on retail pricing across major product categories. Highlights comparing between legal and illegal retail shops, if there is still a big discrepancy there or not? I’m wondering how perhaps recessionary pressures on consumers here could impact the mix between legal or illegal shops? And then I have a follow-up.

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

So, we’re seeing some pricing compression on whole flower in Canada, especially on the lower and mid-potency flower products. And that is being countered a bit by some strength, some support on high-potency flower products as well as the 2.0 products. I think one of the things we learned in Q1 is that adult-use cannabis and medical cannabis internationally in Canada is more like a consumer staple and less like a luxury product, and cannabis may be counter-cyclical. I think that, it is hard to answer your question, because if the economic issues were caused by something other than health issue, I think you might see people migrate back to illicit market. But in the midst of a global health pandemic, so far we haven’t seen that. I think because consumers, patients are trying to be as healthy as possible and are looking for high-quality, safe products rather than untested, unregulated products that come from an illicit market and are also obtained through an illicit transaction.

Mike Hickey — Benchmark Company — Analyst

Okay. But on the health side, you’re not seeing a mix shift away from vape or flower, right? You’re seeing sort of the opposite. I mean, intuitively, you think if that was a concern, you wouldn’t want to be inhaling smoke into your lungs or vape?

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, we haven’t seen that yet or haven’t seen it. We have seen strengths in the other form factors, so things like cheese and edibles and chocolates. But haven’t seen concerns with flower and vape at this point.

Mike Hickey — Benchmark Company — Analyst

Okay. Last question, on the premium flower side, what’s the highest potency that you’re giving to retail? And what’s your best strain [Phonetic]?

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

The highest potency in Q1 that we got to retail, I believe it was, somewhere between 25% and 26%. And that’s the strain called Rockstar.

Mike Hickey — Benchmark Company — Analyst

Nice. Was that your best volumes from you?

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

It’s not by volume, but as soon as we have it, it sells out quickly.

Mike Hickey — Benchmark Company — Analyst

Sure. All right. Thanks guys. That’s all. I appreciate it.

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Thank you. This concludes our Q&A session. At this time, I’d like to turn the call back over to Mr. Brendan Kennedy, CEO, for closing remarks.

Brendan Kennedy — Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. I’d like to thank our dedicated employees and team members for all their hard work, improving patients and consumers’ lives through the power of cannabis and hemp. I appreciate it. We appreciate everyone’s questions and participation on today’s call. Have a great evening.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]

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