Valero’s 2026 outlook is influenced by significant geopolitical risk and trade policy uncertainty. Potential 25% tariffs on imported steel from Mexico and Canada could increase the cost of Valero’s planned $1.7 billion capital investment program for 2026. Management noted that while its refineries are optimized for diverse crude slates, sudden shifts in trade duties on heavy Mexican crudes could compress margins.
The company is also monitoring shifts in Renewable Volume Obligations (RVO) and European energy policies, which impact its renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel exports. Geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to provide a floor for global fuel prices, though Valero remains focused on its domestic operational efficiency to mitigate these external shocks.