McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE: MCD) is set to report fourth-quarter earnings, capping a year marked by economic pressures and evolving consumer preferences. With inflation challenging household budgets, the fast-food giant’s ability to deliver value is under scrutiny, and investors are watching closely to see if it can post another resilient performance.
Estimates
When the Chicago-based company reports its December-quarter results next week, market watchers will be expecting adjusted earnings of $3.05 per share and revenues of $6.83 billion. In the prior-year quarter, it had earned $2.83 per share on revenues $6.39 billion. The report is expected on Wednesday, February 11, at 7:00 am ET. Following a miss on estimates in the last quarter, the Q4 report will be pivotal in assessing the effectiveness of recent menu innovations and digital acceleration.
McDonald’s stock has experienced a volatile ride in recent months, with sharp swings up and down. Despite the turbulence, shares gained more than 12% last year, outperforming the S&P 500. The company’s consistent record of raising quarterly dividends continues, with the stock currently yielding 2.3%. Over the past twelve months, MCD has averaged a price of $306.70.
Results Miss
In the third quarter, McDonald’s revenues increased 3% year-over-year to $7 billion, with global comparable sales growing 3.6%. Global Systemwide sales came in at $36 billion, up 8%. Meanwhile, Q3 earnings, adjusted for special items, edged down 1% from last year to $3.22 per share. Unadjusted net income increased modestly to $3.18 per share. Both revenue and the bottom line missed estimates after beating in the prior quarter.
From McDonald’s Q3 2025 Earnings Call:
“In the US, we continue to see a bifurcated consumer base, with QSR traffic from lower-income consumers declining nearly double digits in the third quarter, a trend that’s persisted for nearly two years. In contrast, traffic growth among higher-income consumers remained strong, increasing nearly double digits in the quarter. We continue to remain cautious about the health of the consumer in the US and our top international markets and believe the pressures will continue well into 2026. Delivering industry-leading value is part of McDonald’s DNA.”
Menu for Success
Over the years, McDonald’s has remained a dominant player in the quick-service restaurant industry. The company’s unmatched scale, expanding digital ecosystem, and aggressive unit expansion plans – targeting 50,000 systemwide locations by 2027 — provide a strong moat against growing competition.
McDonald’s shares have grown around 9% in the past six months. On Thursday, the shares opened at $325.08 and traded slightly higher in the early hours of the session.