Revenue
Earnings
The consensus estimate for Q3 2024 earnings is $1.35 per share, which compares to adjusted EPS of $1.28 reported in Q3 2023. In Q2 2024, adjusted EPS remained flat YoY at $1.31.
Points to note
Altria continues to see momentum in its smoke-free business. In Q2, in the e-vapor category, the company saw shipment volume of NJOY consumables increase 14.7% sequentially to 12.5 million units, while NJOY devices shipment volume increased 80% sequentially to 1.8 million units. However, the broader e-vapor market is seeing an overflow of illicit disposable products which is a concern.
A tough macroeconomic environment, which has impacted discretionary spending, as well as the growth of illegal disposable e-vapor products have pressured cigarette industry shipment volumes. Last quarter, Altria saw revenues in its smokeable products segment fall 5.6%, with a 13% drop in domestic cigarette shipment volume.
MO is seeing growth in its oral tobacco products segment which saw revenues grow by 4.6% in Q2. The growth was mainly driven by higher pricing. Although domestic shipment volume for oral tobacco products dropped 1.8% due to retail share losses last quarter, the company saw 37% growth in shipment volume for on! nicotine pouches. Total US oral tobacco category share for on! nicotine pouches grew 1.2 share points to 8.1% in Q2.
Altria’s third quarter results are likely to have benefited from gains in its smoke-free portfolio, led by NJOY and on! The declines in cigarette volumes continue to be a concern but higher pricing is likely to offset some of these headwinds.