Catastrophe losses to dampen American International Group Q3 results

American International Group (AIG) is set to post its third-quarter results on Wednesday after the market close. The insurer is likely to report a loss for the quarter due to bigger-than-expected catastrophe losses arising from Hurricane Florence, California mudslides, and multiple events in Japan and Asia.

Analysts, on an average, predict that the company will report earnings of $0.12 per share on revenue of $12.44 billion for the third quarter. In comparison, during the previous year quarter, the company reported a loss of $1.22 per share on revenue of $11.75 billion. Majority of the analysts recommended a “strong buy” or “buy” rating on the stock with an average price target of $60.87.

For the third quarter, American International Group will be incurring about $1.5 billion to $1.7 billion of pre-tax catastrophe losses. The losses are related to multiple events in Japan, including Typhoons Jebi and Trami, as well as Hurricane Florence and revisions to loss estimates on the California mudslides.

Related: AIG Q2 Earnings Call Transcript

Additionally, for the fourth quarter, the company will incur initial pre-tax loss estimates for Hurricane Michael of about $300 million to $500 million. American International has exhausted about $700 million of the $750 million retentions under its North American aggregate catastrophe reinsurance program.

This year, the company has revamped its reinsurance program and enhanced its reinsurance protection. As it has exhausted the North American retention, experts believe the company could shine more in the overseas market. However, the wider losses in Japan and Asia showed that more could be done in its international business.

Shares of American International ended Monday’s regular session down 2.49% at $39.90 on the NYSE. The stock has fallen over 33% in the year so far and over 38% in the past year.

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