Canadian National Railway Company (CNI) faces significant headwinds from shifting trade policies. Management explicitly listed “heightened geopolitical risk” and macroeconomic uncertainty as the primary challenges for 2026. Potential 25% tariffs on cross-border automotive and industrial components pose a direct threat to the company’s intermodal and finished-vehicle segments.
While the company moved a record 2.82 million metric tonnes of grain in December 2025, it expects overall Revenue Ton Mile (RTM) growth to be flattish for the coming year. To maintain cash flow, CN is scaling back its 2026 capital program to C$2.8 billion, a reduction of C$500 million from 2025 levels. This strategic retrenchment aims to protect free cash flow conversion even as volume growth stalls.