Earnings Preview: Domino’s Pizza expected to report higher Q1 sales and profit

Despite the challenging market conditions and pressure on consumer spending, Domino’s Pizza, Inc. (NASDAQ: DPZ) has maintained stable sales growth by leveraging the brand’s popularity. The company continues to expand its store network — opened a total of 395 new stores in the most recent quarter — capitalizing on its competitive advantage and customer loyalty.

The performance of Domino’s shares indicates that the business momentum is failing to resonate with investors. In 2024, the stock experienced high volatility, and the trend continued in the early months of this year. In terms of value, the stock has not made any progress in the past twelve months, suggesting stability but no appreciation during that period. However, DPZ has gained about 11% since the beginning of 2025. Last year, it mostly underperformed the S&P 500 index.

Estimates

The world’s largest pizza chain is all set to publish its first-quarter 2025 results on Monday, April 28, at 6:05 am ET. On average, analysts following the business predict earnings of $4.07 per share for the March quarter, which marks an improvement from the prior-year quarter when the company earned $3.58 per share. The positive outlook reflects an estimated 3.6% YoY increase in Q1 revenue to $1.12 billion.

From Domino’s Q4 2024 earnings call:

“We’re pleased with how most of our franchisees internationally are navigating the continued macroeconomic pressures and geopolitical issues across the globe. Our team continues to work with our international master franchisees to create momentum in their markets even in the face of these headwinds. We know what works in today’s challenging environment, and its renowned value. As we noted on our last call, we’re engaging with our master franchisees with a focus on three key areas. These areas are around consistent value messaging, maximizing orders from aggregators, and driving additional growth in carryout and dine-in.“

Sales Grow

In the final three months of fiscal 2025, Domino’s revenues increased about 3% from the prior year to $1.44 billion, driven mainly by higher supply chain revenue and US franchise advertising revenues. Global retail sales were up 4.4% year-over-year, and US same-store sales grew 0.4% during the three months. As a result, Q4 profit rose 7.7% annually to $169.4 million and earnings per share moved up 9.2% to $4.89. Both revenue and the bottom line missed Wall Street’s expectations.

Over the years, Domino’s has steadily expanded its share in the quick-service pizza market, globally. The company keeps adding new stores to the network, taking advantage of its healthy cash flow and sustained profitability.

DPZ has mostly traded sideways in recent sessions, staying close to its 12-month average value. The stock traded slightly higher on Monday morning.