Earnings Preview: What to watch as Intel (INTC) prepares to report Q4 results

For Intel Corporation (NASDAQ: INTC), 2025 marked a recovery year, as the company made notable progress towards achieving its technological and operational milestones. After losing significant market share to rivals in recent years, the company is looking for a resurgence. It is actively working to leverage the AI-driven surge in compute demand by expanding its portfolio and manufacturing footprint.

Cautious View

It is estimated that the tech behemoth delivered a modest performance in the final months of FY25. Wall Street analysts expect fourth-quarter earnings to decline to $0.08 per share, adjusted for one-off items, from $0.13 per share in the corresponding quarter of the prior year. The forecast for Q4 revenue is $13.37 billion, vs. $14.26 billion last year. The company has scheduled the announcement for January 22, after regular trading hours.

Over the past six months, Intel’s stock price has nearly doubled, significantly outperforming the broader market after trading mostly sideways in early 2025. However, the most recent closing price remains well below the stock’s peak. It appears that investors are optimistic about Intel’s growth strategy, which centers on ramping up its foundry business and is supported by large investments from the U.S. government and big companies such as Nvidia and Japan’s SoftBank.

On Recovery Path

In the third quarter, Intel’s revenue increased 3% from last year to $13.65 billion. Client Computing revenue rose 5%, while Data Center and AI revenue declined 1%. On a per-share basis, earnings came in at $0.23 in the September quarter, excluding special items, compared to a loss of $0.46 per share in the year-ago quarter. On an adjusted basis, net income was $4.06 billion or $0.90 per share, compared to a loss of $16.6 billion or $3.88 per share in Q3 2024. Both revenues and earnings topped Wall Street’s expectations.

From Intel’s Q3 2025 Earnings:

“We are still in the early stages of the AI revolution, and I believe Intel can and will play a much more significant role as we transform the company. This starts with our core x86 franchise, which continues to play a critical role in the age of AI. AI is clearly accelerating demand for new compute architectures, hardware, models, and algorithms. At the same time, it’s fueling renewed growth of traditional compute as the underlying data and the resulting insights continue to rely heavily on our existing products.”

Tech Ramp

The US government has provided substantial financial support to Intel as part of efforts to promote the domestic production of advanced microchips, reducing reliance on Asia-based suppliers such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company. While the company looks to benefit from strong data-center demand from large enterprises this year, the primary bet is on its advanced semiconductor manufacturing process node, 18A. Claimed by Intel to be the first truly advanced process node manufactured at scale in the United States, initial shipments of 18A-based products began last year.

On Tuesday, Intel’s stock opened at $45.89, which is sharply higher than its 12-month average price of $26.87. The shares have gained an impressive 22% in the past 30 days.