FedEx (FDX) holds steady despite freight market slowdown

FedEx Corporation’s (NYSE: FDX) second-quarter report underscored its resilience in a challenging market environment characterized by uneven demand, tariff tensions, and rising competition. Management issued cautious guidance, citing progress in network optimization and cost discipline, even as freight market weakness and operational headwinds weighed on certain segments. Although freight demand remains a concern, FedEx sees long-term gains from restructuring and digital investments.

Q2 Outcome

The cargo giant’s second-quarter earnings, excluding special items, increased to $4.82 per share from $4.05 per share in the year-ago quarter, exceeding Wall Street’s expectations. On a reported basis, net income was $956 million or $4.04 per share in the November quarter, compared to $741 million or $3.03 per share in Q2 2025. The bottom-line growth was driven by a 7% growth in revenues to $23.5 billion, which is above analysts’ forecasts.

The company’s stock rallied on Thursday soon after the announcement, but pulled back later, and the downturn extended into the pre-market on Friday. Investor sentiment was dampened by the management’s cautious profit forecast for the current quarter, citing incremental costs. After entering 2025 on a low note and losing further momentum in the early months, FDX bounced back and has been in recovery mode since then. It has gained about 28% in the past six months.

Mixed View

The FedEx management said it expects profitability to be impacted in the current quarter by additional costs related to the unexpected grounding of its MD-11 fleet due to safety concerns. Despite headwinds like nationwide air traffic constraints, weakness in the industrial economy, and global trade uncertainties, the company raised the midpoint of its FY26 forecasts. Fiscal-2026 revenue is expected to grow 5-6% now. The guidance for unadjusted earnings per share for 2026 is $14.80 to $16.00, and adjusted earnings are expected to be in the range of $17.80 per share to $19.0 per share.

From FedEx’s Q2 2026 Earnings Call:

“High single-digit revenue growth, margin expansion, and high teens adjusted EPS growth. Quite remarkably, we did this while navigating multiple external headwinds, including the unexpected grounding of our MD-11 fleet, nationwide air traffic constraints, weakness in the industrial economy, and of course, the impact of global trade policy changes. We’re extremely pleased with our Q2 performance, especially in the face of these challenges. It’s a direct effect of the rigor we have embedded into our culture over the past several years and the resulting transformation from Network 2.0, Tricolor, and structural cost reductions, all enabled by data and technology.

Spin Off

Meanwhile, the FedEx Freight business remains a drag on overall performance amid continued pressure on shipments. The management is preparing to spin off this underperforming division as a separately listed public company. In the most recent quarter, FedEx Freight’s revenue dropped 2% due to lower average daily shipments.

The average price of FedEx shares for the past twelve months is $242.13. The stock traded lower on Friday afternoon, after opening the session lower. It has gained 9% since last month.