Earnings preview: Comps to drive Guess? Q4 results

Lifestyle products designer Guess? Inc. (GES) is scheduled to report its earnings for the fourth quarter on Wednesday after the market closes. The results will be benefited by the strength in Europe and Asia businesses as constant store openings and e-commerce expansion could lead to positive comps growth.

The top line is likely to be driven by higher comparable store sales, including e-commerce, store opening, and the rise in wholesale revenues. The improvement in sales quality and merchandising structure will aid in improving comps in Europe.

The bottom line is expected to be fueled by an increase in European wholesale shipments and a fall in markdowns in Americas Retail. The results would be hurt by the rise in retail promotions in Europe and the relocation of the European distribution center.

Analysts expect Guess to report earnings of $0.75 per share on revenue of $831.15 million for the fourth quarter. In comparison, during the previous year quarter, the company posted a profit of $0.62 per share on revenue of $792.16 million. Majority of the analysts recommended a “hold” rating while expecting the stock to reach $25 per share in the next 52 weeks.

For the third quarter, the company reported a wider loss due to charges related to the estimated European Commission fine and higher distribution costs related to the relocation of the European distribution center. Revenue increased by 10% year-over-year. Comp sales, including e-commerce, were up 3% in U.S. dollar and up 4% in constant currency basis.

For the fourth quarter, the company had expected revenue growth in the range of 4% to 6% in US dollar basis and 7.5% to 9.5% in constant currency basis. Earnings were anticipated to be in the range of $0.69 to $0.76 per share and operating margin was likely to be in the range of 9.5% to 10%.

For the full year 2019, Guess had predicted revenue growth in the range of 10% to 10.5% and earnings in the range of $0.57 to $0.64 per share. Adjusted earnings were anticipated to be in the range of $0.96 to $1.03 per share and adjusted operating margin was projected to be in the range of 4.5% to 4.8%.

Shares of Guess ended Friday’s regular session up 0.44% at $22.81 on the NYSE. The stock has risen over 51% in the past year and 11% in the past three months.

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