Revenue
Earnings
American Airlines expects adjusted EPS to be approx. breakeven in Q4 2023. Analysts are forecasting EPS of $0.10 for the quarter. This compares to adjusted EPS of $1.17 in Q4 2022 and $0.38 in Q3 2023.
Points to note
The resilient demand environment, with steady domestic demand and strong international demand, is likely to benefit American Airlines in Q4. The airline delivered strong performance during the winter holiday travel period which bodes well for the quarter.
However, the company faces a tough comparison with the strong unit revenue environment in the year-ago period. As a result, it has forecast total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) for the fourth quarter to be down 5.5-7.5% year-over-year. Capacity is expected to be up approx. 4.5-6.5% YoY in Q4.
American expects its cost per available seat mile, excluding fuel, (CASMx) for Q4 to be up around 5-7% YoY. Adjusted non-operating expense is expected to be approx. $400 million while adjusted operating margin is expected to be approx. 2-4% in the quarter.
For the full year of 2023, American expects TRASM to be up approx. 1% and capacity to be up approx. 6.5% YoY. CASMx is expected to be up approx. 3% YoY. Looking ahead into 2024, the company has projected its capacity to be up mid-single-digits YoY.