NiSource Inc. (NI) shares traded near record highs following the February 11, 2026 release of fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results, with modest gains reflecting an adjusted earnings beat despite a revenue miss. The utility reaffirmed its 2026 guidance and highlighted a landmark Amazon data center agreement expected to drive long-term growth and customer savings. The stock closed around $44.66–$44.73 on February 11 (up slightly in reaction), near its 52-week high in a year-long range of approximately $35.64 to $44.99.
Company Description
NiSource Inc. is an energy holding company that operates as a regulated natural gas and electric utility. Through its subsidiaries, including Northern Indiana Public Service Company (NIPSCO) and the Columbia Gas brands, it serves approximately 3.3 million natural gas customers and 500,000 electric customers across six states: Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, and Maryland. The business model emphasizes long-term infrastructure modernization, grid resilience, and transition toward renewable energy generation.
Current Stock Price
Approximately $44.66
Market Capitalization
Approximately $21–$22 billion
Valuation
NiSource trades at a forward P/E ratio of approximately 22x based on 2026 guidance. This premium relative to some utility peers reflects the company’s projected 8%–9% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) in adjusted EPS through 2033, supported by data center-driven load growth and infrastructure investments.
Q4 and Full-Year 2025 Financial Summary
NiSource reported strong bottom-line performance, exceeding adjusted EPS guidance for the year despite weather and other factors impacting quarterly revenue.
- Adjusted Earnings: Fourth-quarter adjusted EPS was $0.51, beating consensus estimates (~$0.49–$0.50) and up from $0.49 in the prior-year period. Full-year adjusted EPS reached $1.90, up from $1.75 in 2024 and above guidance range.
- Revenue: Quarterly revenue totaled approximately $1.2 billion, missing consensus estimates (~$1.49 billion). Full-year GAAP net income available to common shareholders rose to $929.5 million ($1.95 diluted EPS), up from $739.7 million ($1.62) in 2024.
- Dividends: The Board approved a 7.1% increase in the 2026 common stock dividend to $1.20 per share annually (~$0.30 quarterly).
- Credit Metrics: Achieved a Funds From Operations (FFO) to Debt ratio of 16.1%, exceeding prior guidance range and supporting balance sheet strength.
Earnings Call and Strategic Initiatives
Management emphasized the “GenCo” model and Amazon agreement as key long-term drivers:
- Data Center Strategy: The landmark agreement with Amazon (executed in late 2025) is expected to return more than $1 billion in savings to NIPSCO retail customers over the contract life (equating to ~$7–$9 per customer per month upon full ramp). The associated GenCo buildout represents $6–$7 billion in capital through 2032, with the project advancing (e.g., zoning approvals secured).
- Modernization Investment: The company outlined a consolidated $28 billion capital plan for 2026–2030 (~$21 billion base utility + ~$7 billion data center/strategic), focused on system modernization, reliability, and supporting large-load growth.
- Operational Efficiency: Commitment to flat O&M costs through technology, AI integration, and execution discipline.
- Regulatory Progress: Advanced supportive mechanisms in Ohio and Pennsylvania; Amazon contract pending Indiana Utility Regulatory Commission (IURC) approval expected in first half of 2026.
Macro Pressures and Geopolitical Risk
NiSource navigates sector challenges, particularly around financing its capital-intensive plan amid interest rate dynamics.
- Interest Rate Exposure: Volatility in rates impacts the cost of debt for the $28 billion program, though strong credit metrics (targeting 14%–16% FFO/Debt) provide flexibility.
- Geopolitical/Tariff Exposure: Primarily domestic operations, but renewable transition (wind/solar) and equipment needs remain sensitive to tariffs on imported solar components, high-voltage transformers, and global supply chain issues.
- Company-Specific Challenge: Regulatory timing risks, including IURC decision on Amazon contract; federal order delaying Schahfer coal plant retirement requires operational flexibility.
NiSource Inc. (NI) SWOT Analysis
Strengths
- Predictable Regulatory Environment: Diversified operations across six states with constructive jurisdictions and mechanisms enabling ~85% capital recovery within 12 months.
- Data Center Catalyst: Amazon agreement and GenCo model provide high-visibility load growth and customer-affordable value.
- Strong Balance Sheet: 16.1% FFO to Debt supports execution of $28 billion plan while maintaining investment-grade ratings.
Weaknesses
- Revenue Volatility: Weather-sensitive demand can drive quarterly misses despite stable EPS.
- High Capital Intensity: Reliance on external financing for large-scale modernization and growth projects.
- Coal Fleet Reliance: Delayed retirements complicate near-term carbon reduction goals.
Opportunities
- Renewable and Load Growth: $7 billion in data center/strategic investments through 2030, plus pipeline for additional large-load agreements.
- Technological Gains: AI and efficiency initiatives to further control O&M and enhance reliability.
- Economic Development: Supporting onshoring, manufacturing, and data centers in service territories.
Threats
- Regulatory Delay: Risks from rate case outcomes, contract approvals, or lag in recovery.
- Interest Rate Environment: Sustained high rates elevating debt costs for capital plan.
- Supply Chain Disruptions: Trade tensions or tariffs increasing costs for critical infrastructure components.