Old National Bancorp (ONB) Q1 2023 Earnings Call Transcript

Old National Bancorp (NASDAQ: ONB) Q1 2023 earnings call dated Apr. 25, 2023

Corporate Participants:

James C. Ryan — Chief Executive Officer

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

Mark G. Sander — President and Chief Operating Officer

Analysts:

Scott Siefers — Piper Sandler — Analyst

Benjamin Gerlinger — Hovde Group — Analyst

Terry McEvoy — Stephens — Analyst

Christopher McGratty — KBW — Analyst

Broderick Preston — UBS — Analyst

Jon Arfstrom — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Welcome to the Old National Bancorp First Quarter 2023 earnings conference call. This call is being recorded and has been made accessible to the public in accordance with the SEC’s Regulation FD. Corresponding presentation slides can be found on the Investor Relations page at oldnational.com and will be archived there for 12 months. Management would like to remind everyone that certain statements on today’s call may be forward-looking in nature and are subject to certain risks, uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results or outcomes to differ from those discussed. The company refers to you to its forward-looking statement legend in the earnings release presentation slides. The company’s risk factors are fully disclosed and discussed within its SEC filings. In addition, certain slides contain non-GAAP measures which management believes provide more appropriate comparisons. These non-GAAP measures are intended to assist investors understanding of performance trends. Reconciliations for these numbers are contained within the appendix of the presentation. I would now like to turn the call over to Old National’s CEO, Jim Ryan for opening remarks. Mr. Ryan?

James C. Ryan — Chief Executive Officer

Good morning. On the morning of April 10th, our Old National family was blindsided by an unthinkable tragedy. In the span of minutes, five of our team members were lost forever, while other team members and two Louisville Metro Police officers suffered injuries. All Old National team members are out-of-the hospital, and on the road to recovery. One Louisville officer remains in the hospital. In the aftermath of this tragedy, many heroes emerged, including members of law enforcement, city and state officials, the amazing Louisville medical community, and some of our own team members who were there on the scene. To all of you, thank you from the bottom of our hearts. On behalf of everyone at Old National, I also want to thank the entire community of Louisville for your unconditional love, prayers and support. I also want to acknowledge the overwhelming outreach from individuals and organizations throughout the country. Your outpouring of love and care has helped strengthen us and we are so grateful.

Turning to the quarter, we reported strong first-quarter earnings despite a rapid shift in the operating environment for all banks. For Old National it was business-as-usual even throughout March and the strength of our franchise remains evident in the results outlined on slide four. Adjusted EPS was $0.54 per common share with adjusted ROA and ROATCE of 1.4% and 23.4% respectively. Our adjusted efficiency ratio remained under 50%. Obviously, deposits, liquidity and credit are under focus today. As you can see, deposit balances were stable during the quarter despite the normal first-quarter seasonal patterns in public fund balances. Our total cost of deposits at 72 basis-points is well below peers, and we maintained our deposit pricing discipline with a low 15% total deposit beta cycle to date. Granularity is one of the keys to success here and Brendan will share some additional details on the competitive advantage our funding base provides later in the deck.

With respect to liquidity, as you’d expect, we took steps to increase our cash-on-hand and our available liquidity over the course of March and April. Our liquidity coverage in excess of our uninsured deposits is 150% including unencumbered assets. Likewise, our credit remains strong with five basis-points of non PCD related charge-offs and stable asset quality. We remain watchful like other banks and are focused on potential pockets of softness. Like our deposit portfolio, our loan portfolio is granular, what should continue to serve us well. We remain confident in our client selection and underwriting, and as you know, Old National has taken an active approach to credit management. This approach has served us well in various economic cycles. As evidenced, this quarter, we worked aggressively to address some PCD credit for the merger. On the Client side, engagement remained high in the quarter and we continue to expect disciplined loan growth in 2023, albeit not at 2022’s pace. In other areas, more of the same. Below peer deposit cost should drive the funding advantage, more organic growth of our wealth management client base and a continued focus on disciplined expense management. Thank you. I will now turn the call over to Brendon to cover the quarterly results in more detail.

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, James. Turning to the quarter’s results on Slide 5. We reported GAAP net income applicable to common shares of $143 million or $0.49 per share. Reported earnings include $15 million in pretax merger-related charges, $1 million in pretax property optimization charges as well as $5 million in debt securities losses. Excluding these items, our adjusted earnings per share was $0.54.

Slide 6 provides our quarter end balance sheet. Total asset growth of $1.1 billion in the quarter was driven by disciplined loan growth and higher cash balances funded through stable deposits and higher borrowings.

Moving to Slide 7. Total deposits were stable quarter-over-quarter despite public fund outflows. Q1 is typically our seasonal low point for public funds, and we anticipate net inflows in Q2. Our trend in average deposits reflect mix shifts away from noninterest-bearing accounts into money market and CDs, which is typical for this point in the rate cycle. Market conditions continue to put upward pressure on deposit rates with total deposit costs up 38 basis points quarter-over-quarter to a still very low 72 basis points, which equates to a total deposit cost beta of 15%. Interest-bearing deposit costs increased 57 basis points to 1.09%, resulting in an interest-bearing deposit beta of 23%. Although the terminal beta is difficult to estimate, we have a strong track record of managing deposit costs and are confident we can maintain our funding advantage throughout the remainder of the rate cycle. We are actively defending deposit balances through competitive rack rates and limited pricing exceptions in addition to playing offense through various deposit specials. We are pleased with the execution of this strategy to date as we have been able to generate new deposits sufficient to maintain stable overall balances.

Slide 8 provides additional details and granularity of our deposit base. Our average core deposit account balances are meaningfully lower than peers. We have deep and long-standing relationships with our deposit customers, 75% of which have been with the bank for more than five years and nearly 1/3 have been with us for more than 25 years. The concentration of our largest customers is also exceptionally low. Our top 20 deposit clients represent less than 5% of our total deposits. If you exclude collateralized deposits, our top 20 represents only 2% of our total deposits.

Slide 9 provides details of our funding and liquidity. We have ample liquidity with approximately 150% coverage of our uninsured deposits, including $10.3 billion in immediately available funds from cash equivalents, Federal Home Loan Bank, Fed discount window and the BTFP. We also have $5.4 billion in capacity from high-quality unencumbered collateral available for pledging. Beyond the 150% coverage, we have significant other sources of liquidity through broker deposits and unsecured credit lines as well as insured cash suite product capacity.

Slide 10 shows trend in total loan growth and portfolio yields. Total loans grew 2%, consistent with our expectations and Q4 pipeline. Consumer loans were stable quarter-over-quarter and loan portfolio yield increased 34 basis points to 5.42%. The invest portfolio was stable quarter-over-quarter as portfolio cash flows were offset by an improvement in fair values. Duration improved to 4.4%, and we expect approximately $1.2 billion in total investment cash flows over the next 12 months. Nearly 80% of our portfolio consists of high-quality treasury and agency investments with an additional 18% held in highly rated municipals. The remaining portfolio consists of highly rated corporate securities and other investments.

Slide 11 details our Q1 commercial production. The $1.8 billion of production was well balanced across all product lines and major markets. We continue to maintain a disciplined approach to underwriting while taking advantage of market dislocation to grow attractive new relationships. That said, we have tightened our pricing standards, enhanced credit structure and have reinforced with our relationship managers the importance of acquiring a full banking relationship for new loan requests.

Turning briefly to pricing. New money yields on commercial loans increased 64 basis points to 6.72% for the quarter, with March production yields of 6.87%.

Moving to Slide 12, you will see further details of our loan portfolio. We have a well-diversified commercial loan portfolio that represents approximately 70% of total loans and carries an average loan balance of approximately $1 million. Our nonowner-occupied CRE is well diversified by asset class and geographies. As it relates specifically to nonowner occupied office, the bulk of the portfolio is made up of suburban or medical office with a meaningful amount of credit tenant leases. Less than 1% of total loans are located within central business districts which are geographically diverse in 11 Midwestern cities with only five deals totaling less than $50 million in Chicago and Minneapolis St. Paul.

Slide 13 shows our credit trends. Credit conditions are stable, and our commercial and consumer portfolios continue to perform exceptionally well. Delinquencies and NPLs are showing positive trends and net charge-offs were stable at a modest 5 basis points, excluding the 16 basis point impact from PCD loans. Our special assets team is continuing to work through the FNB acquired PCD loan book and expect charge-offs from this portfolio to be elevated in the near term. The provision expense impact from the workout effort should be minimal as we carry $54 million or approximately 5% reserve against this book.

On Slide 14, you will see details of our first quarter allowance, including reserves for unfunded commitments, which stands at $333 million, consistent with Q4. Reserves reflect loan growth with relatively small increases due to portfolio mix more than offset by improvement in economic forecast and charge-offs of PCD loans that don’t require reserve replenishment. The financial health of our clients remain strong. And while credit metrics are stable, we believe it is prudent to maintain elevated reserves given the uncertainty in our economic outlook. Our current reserves reflect a 100% weighted Moody’s S3 scenario with negative GDP of 3.1% and unemployment of 7.1%. Unless the economic outlook deteriorates materially, 2023 provision expense should continue to be limited to portfolio performance and loan growth. In addition to the $333 million in reserves, we also carried $96 million in acquired loan discount marks.

Next, on Slide 15, you will see details of our net interest income and margin. Both metrics were generally in line with our expectations. Net interest margin contracted 16 basis points quarter-over-quarter to 3.69%, while core margin excluding accretion, decreased 13 basis points to 3.62%. Core margin was just shy of the low end of our margin guidance due to holding more cash on hand following market disruption in March. We continue to proactively manage the balance sheet towards a neutral rate risk position while layering in protection for a sudden reversal in Fed rate policy.

Slide 16 shows trend in adjusted noninterest income, which was $76 million for the quarter. Again, this was generally in line with our expectations with improvements in capital markets and wealth revenues, offsetting macro driven weakness in mortgage and a full quarter impact of our service charge enhancements put in place in December. The linked quarter increase in our other category was driven by fair market value adjustments on equity securities and higher BOLI income.

Next, Slide 17 shows the trend in adjusted noninterest expenses. Adjusted noninterest expense was $235 million, and our adjusted efficiency ratio was a low 48.8%. Expenses were well controlled and consistent with the prior quarter. The increase in the other expense category was largely due to higher FDIC assessment and marketing expenses.

Slide 18 provides details on our capital position at quarter end. Capital ratios were stable and reflect strong earnings, offset by loan growth and share repurchases in the quarter. Our TCE ratio increased 19 basis points to 6.37%, largely due to a reduction in unrealized losses and other comprehensive income. Total available for sale unrealized losses is impacting our TCE ratio by 145 basis points. Our after-tax HDM unrealized losses stood at approximately $300 million at quarter end. We continue to monitor our balance sheet for economic stress and feel very comfortable with our capital levels. While we did repurchase 1.8 million shares of common stock earlier in the quarter, we do not anticipate repurchasing additional shares in the near term. As I wrap up my comments, here are some key takeaways.

We had a strong start to 2023 with the results in line with our expectations. We posted strong return metrics with adjusted return on average assets of 1.39% and adjusted return on tangible common equity of 23%. Our deposit franchise continues to perform exceptionally well in this environment as we have maintained stability in our deposit balances while delivering a top quartile total deposit beta of 15%. We have ample liquidity with uninsured deposit coverage ratio of approximately 150%, including unencumbered eligible collateral. Credit remains strong, and we continue to manage expenses in a disciplined manner as evidenced by our efficiency ratio of 48.8% for the quarter.

Slide 19 includes thoughts on our outlook for the remainder of 2023. We believe our current pipeline should continue to support near-term loan growth in the mid-single-digit range. While we expect to have meaningful year-over-year NII growth in 2023 in the range of 9% to 12%, margin will continue to be under pressure from higher deposit costs. More detailed NII and margin guidance is difficult to provide given the uncertainty of future Fed rate actions and the uncertainty of market dynamics that will ultimately determine terminal deposit betas. That said, we remain confident in our ability to manage deposit costs better than most. Contractual accretion is expected to be approximately $16 million for the remainder of full year 2023.

We expect our fee businesses to continue to perform well despite headwinds with mortgage following industry patterns. We should continue to see revenue momentum in wealth from the strategic hires we’ve made over the last two years. Capital Markets revenues will largely follow loan demand and should perform consistent with Q1 levels. This quarter’s bank fees fully reflect the HSA sale and service charge enhancements implemented in December and should represent a good baseline. Our expense outlook is consistent with our prior guidance with full year 2023 total expense of approximately $939 million, excluding merger-related charges and property optimization related expenses. Provision expense should continue to be limited to loan growth, portfolio changes and non-PCD charge-offs as we believe we have adequate reserve against the PCD book, and we are already 100% weighted towards the Moody’s S3 scenario.

Turning to taxes. We expect approximately $11 million in tax credit and amortization for the remainder of 2023 with a corresponding full year effective tax rate of 24% on a core FTE basis and 22% on a GAAP basis. With those comments, I’d like to open the call for your questions. And we do have the full team available, including Mark Sander, Jim Sandgren and John Moran.

Questions and Answers:

Operator

Thank you. [Operator Instructions] The first question comes from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler. You may now proceed.

Scott Siefers — Piper Sandler — Analyst

Good morning, everyone. Thanks for taking the question, and my condolences regarding the events over the last couple of weeks. We could start maybe on the — sort of thoughts on deposit mix. What would be your best guess as to where noninterest-bearing levels go as a percent of total deposits, maybe a little historical perspective and why whatever number you think might be the best one where you sort of think things will settle.

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

Yes, Scott, this is Brendon. Yes, if we look back, I think the 28% kind of pre-COVID level is probably a decent [Technical Issues] in terms of where [Technical Issues] how long it takes to get there at this pace. I’m not sure, but that’s probably a good place to think about where it may settle

Scott Siefers — Piper Sandler — Analyst

Okay, perfect. And then when you made some comments about having worked aggressively on some PCD stuff from the merger. And it sounds like we’ll continue to see some charge-offs there, albeit not ones that will require provisioning since you already have the PCD reserve. But maybe just some thoughts on what kind of stuff you are working through, how long it might take to work through the remainder of where you see issues, et cetera?

Mark G. Sander — President and Chief Operating Officer

Yes, so we still have — hey Scott, it’s Mark. We still have $54 million of PCD reserves on our books. And so I think that will work through over the next 18 to 24 months, we would say, and I don’t think it will be a linear type of thing. So there’ll be some lumpiness in there. But as you indicated and as Brendon said, we think we’re fully reserved on all those loans.

Scott Siefers — Piper Sandler — Analyst

Okay. All right. Wonderful. Thank you very much. I appreciate it.

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Scott.

Operator

Thank you, Mr. Siefers. The next question comes from the line of Ben Gerlinger with Hovde Group. You may now proceed.

Benjamin Gerlinger — Hovde Group — Analyst

Hey, good morning.

James C. Ryan — Chief Executive Officer

Good morning, Ben.

Benjamin Gerlinger — Hovde Group — Analyst

I just want to take a moment. You guys did a fantastic job as both a management team and — it’s a franchise to support the community and the last thing I know is — the last thing you guys want to do is make it about yourself, but I think it’s [Technical Issues] a tragedy. So you guys did a great job stepping up being a community bank in supporting the community far beyond loans and deposits.

James C. Ryan — Chief Executive Officer

Thank you. We appreciate your support.

Benjamin Gerlinger — Hovde Group — Analyst

Yes, absolutely. In terms of just kind of growth going forward, I think it makes sense that it’s a little bit softer, I mean, obviously, economic outlook isn’t great. But when you guys think of kind of new loans, any sort of subcategories within lending or within the loan portfolio that you guys are kind of targeting as like this is an area that we could still see some growth or positive risk-adjusted returns in any sort of geographies that might entail?

Mark G. Sander — President and Chief Operating Officer

I wouldn’t specify any geographies, Ben, but C&I remains relatively strong, I would say. We’ve seen a lot of C&I clients over the last quarter. And they remain positive, slightly more muted than a few quarters ago given rates and noise relative to recession. But still positive outlook overall in C&I, generally speaking, strong operating performance, and they’re still looking to invest. So I think the C&I space still looks solid, albeit at a lower level than we saw in ’22. In CRE, certainly, volumes are down, but you still have a couple of sectors, multifamily and industrial, which is where we do the vast majority of our new business these days, which are holding up well. They’re not seeing major rent increases, but they’re still seeing modest rent increases off of really strong basis. So you still have pockets of strength out there.

Benjamin Gerlinger — Hovde Group — Analyst

That’s great to hear. And then I know you guys have done a pretty sizable rebranding and adjustment and frankly, highlighting wealth management. Do you still think that there’s a lot of additional hires? Is that kind of embedded or are we still kind of — are we planning somewhat of a run rate? I mean, obviously, market-dependent helps assets under management. I’m just trying to think from a fee income perspective. it seems like you guys are growing faster than peers, but clearly investing there, too. So I’m just trying to see the dynamics within that subcategory?

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

Maybe I can start, Ben, and Mark can chime in. But first, the new hires are embedded in our outlook on the expense guide. So a lot of that would include additional wealth hires. And I know we’re still seeing a lot of talent and having a lot of [Indecipherable] and so continue to invest [Technical Issues]. And I do think the momentum you’ve seen over the last couple of quarters in the space, we’re hopeful that can continue absent market dynamics that may be a bit of a headwind there.

Mark G. Sander — President and Chief Operating Officer

I think the story here is similar to what we said relative to the growth, right? I think we still see opportunities at a lower level of new hires in ’23 than we saw in ’22, but we’ll still hire. We hired eight revenue producers across wealth and commercial in Q1. Again, I think it’ll continue — there’s still markets we like to build out further. And we still — we invest at a long haul. And so we’re a franchise that people want to join, and we still are — I think they’re a nice — we think people who are high performers pay for themselves quickly. We’re never tired of saying that to people. And I think we’re going to — you’ll continue to see a steady stream, albeit at a lower level of new hires in ’23.

Benjamin Gerlinger — Hovde Group — Analyst

Gotcha. I appreciate color. Great quarter, guys.

James C. Ryan — Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Ben.

Operator

Thank you, Mr. Gallagher. The next question comes from the line of Terry McEvoy with Stephens. You may now proceed.

Terry McEvoy — Stephens — Analyst

Hi, good morning. And first-off, Jim. I also want to share my ongoing support for you and the Old National team.

James C. Ryan — Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Terry. That means an awful lot.

Terry McEvoy — Stephens — Analyst

And then just a couple of questions here. Brendon, I recognize and appreciate that predicting and forecasting deposit beta is tough to really estimate, but when you look at your NII guide of 9% to 12%, is there a deposit beta range or some underlying assumptions that you’re willing to share within the outlook for full year NII?

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

Sure. As you said, this is a tough environment, but we did want to at least put some card rails out there. So what we did is we modeled both the forward curve, which implies kind of 2.5 cuts in the back half of the year. And then something more consistent with the Fed dot plot, which is one more and flat. And then we looked at a range of betas from 30% to 40% cumulative by the end of the year, and that’s kind of where the range of possibilities came out. As we look at that and try to probability weight it, we have a bias towards the higher end of that range, but it’s just difficult to pinpoint with any more precision than that.

Terry McEvoy — Stephens — Analyst

Right. And then maybe as a follow-up, any comments with regards to deposit trends in metro versus community markets and how they’ve differed over the last several quarters at all?

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

There really hasn’t been a big difference. We have one market in particular, one state that has typically had a higher beta than others, but generally fairly consistent across the footprint.

Mark G. Sander — President and Chief Operating Officer

And we have slightly different pricing parameters across markets. And so to reflect some of those regional differences. But yes, the performance has been stable across the entire footprint.

Terry McEvoy — Stephens — Analyst

And then one last quick one. The debt security loss, was that an investment in one of the banks that failed last quarter?

Mark G. Sander — President and Chief Operating Officer

It was.

Terry McEvoy — Stephens — Analyst

Okay, thanks for taking my questions.

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Terry.

Operator

Thank you, Mr. McEvoy. The next question comes from the line of Chris McGratty with KBW. You may now proceed.

Christopher McGratty — KBW — Analyst

Great, good morning. And like everyone else, extend our condolences to the ONB family. Jim, the — or maybe a question for Brendon. The $1.2 billion that’s going to come off the bond book over the next year would effectively map to one for one on your loan growth. So I guess, is that the way you’re thinking kind of flat earning assets from here?

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

Yes.

Christopher McGratty — KBW — Analyst

And then the second part would be — great. And the second part would be, given the steps you’ve been doing to protect downside risk on the margin, how do we think this bigger picture the trajectory of the NIM, the core margin if the futures curve does give us some cuts maybe into next year?

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I’ll point you back to the kind of year-over-year guide that we just — we talked about clearly there’ll be pressure on the margin embedded in that year-over-year increase. And just it’s really difficult to, again, say where that thing is going to land. But in terms of the downgrade protection, we continue to be really active on that spot and continue to put pressure — I mean put additional protection there. And obviously, as deposit costs continue to increase, we get closer and closer to a neutral risk acquisition, which is what we’re trying to move towards over the next couple of quarters.

Christopher McGratty — KBW — Analyst

And in terms of just broader balance sheet management, is there anything that might be on the table given the environment has gotten a little bit more challenging? And also, can you remind us where you’d be comfortable letting the loan-to-deposit adrift.

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

So yes, obviously, we’re — this is a dynamic environment. All tools are on the table, both off balance sheet and on balance sheet opportunities to preserve margin and protect capital. So we’ll continue to look at all opportunities, but we don’t see anything big or major restructurings in the future. And we think we have room to grow on the loan-to-deposit ratio. We have ample liquidity and we have levers to continue to let some of the noncore consumer books shrink to support higher and better quality commercial growth.

Christopher McGratty — KBW — Analyst

Okay, great. And then, Jim, maybe one for you. You noted the buyback, I’ve seen that happen before, March 9. I guess what would it take to either turn it back on, or perhaps consider something external with your capital? Typically, you guys have been pretty disciplined in when you see things, but there’s a lot of volatility and there likely could be some opportunities?

James C. Ryan — Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, obviously, more stability for a longer period of time, I think is what’s going to require for us to get more comfortable in looking at capital differently, getting more clarity as the year plays out with respect to the economy, I think, is also going to be critical. We’re in no hurry to do much different with our capital. We’re just going to continue to watch how the year plays out. And if it plays out where it’s a little bit better than everybody anticipates, I think we could be thinking about capital in the future. But until then, we just got to sit on the sidelines and watch things play.

Christopher McGratty — KBW — Analyst

Great, thank you.

James C. Ryan — Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Chris for your support. Really appreciate it.

Operator

Thank you, Mr. McGratty. The next question comes from the line of Brody Preston with UBS. You may now proceed.

Broderick Preston — UBS — Analyst

Hey, good morning, everyone. Again, like everybody else, I want to say I’m terribly sorry about what happened. That’s very tragic.

James C. Ryan — Chief Executive Officer

Thank you, Broderick.

Broderick Preston — UBS — Analyst

Yeah. As to some of the noninterest-bearing deposits, I just want to ask if there’s any geographic concentration as to where that runoff occurred within your footprint? And any thoughts you can offer on expectations from here? I think Scott asked something about it earlier, but I might have missed it.

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

Yes, sure. I can tell. No geographic concentration. Clearly, it’s mostly in the commercial side, both the higher percentages noninterest-bearing deposits in total. And we had talked about pre-COVID, we were at a low point about 28% on interest bearing deposits, and that might be a good way to think about a potential floor.

Broderick Preston — UBS — Analyst

Okay, understood. And then I did want to just circle back on the assumptions and the allowance that the 7.1% on unemployment. Is that like a 2024 number? Like, just give me a time frame on that.

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I can’t remember specifically the quarter that that peaks, but that is the peak unemployment in the Moody’s S3 scenario. We can follow back up with you.

Broderick Preston — UBS — Analyst

Okay. Yeah, that’d be great. Could you just — I want to circle back on the beta commentary. I think you responded to Terry’s question maybe on NII, you said 30% to 40% beta is what you ran through when you did the different scenarios. I’m assuming the 40% is maybe in the flat scenario using the dot plots and the 30% is maybe closer if we get Fed cuts. Is that a good way to think about it? And could you help us understand what the interest-bearing beta is or if that was the interest-bearing beta that you were talking about?

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

That is the interest-bearing beta. We ran all of those data assumptions through both curves, but to your point, obviously, we’d expect probably a lower bid in the forward curve where there’s cuts, higher beta and if it’s higher for longer. But just where we’re — why we’re leaning towards a trial the higher end or by towards the higher end of that range as we look through it, it’s probably unlikely we have the highest beta in a down or at a rate-cutting environment.

Broderick Preston — UBS — Analyst

Got it. Could you remind us what percentage of the loan portfolio is floating rate and then give us a sense for what the fixed rate loans that you need to reprice over the rest of the year look like?

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

Yes, we are at 56% floating today. And the duration of our loan book is roughly five years. So you’ll see about 20% of our fixed rate loans repriced meaningfully higher.

Broderick Preston — UBS — Analyst

Got it, and we are we done with the hedging or is there additional hedging that’s going to take place on the loan side?

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

No, we’ll continue to look for opportunities like I said, both on balance sheet and off balance sheet to continue to layer in downward protection and protect margin. And we’re not taking our eyeball off OCI and capital [Indecipherable] There’s some opportunities to do there to protect that.

Broderick Preston — UBS — Analyst

Got it. And then last one for me was just if you happen to have the assets under management at quarter end.

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

Yes, it was $28 billion.

Broderick Preston — UBS — Analyst

Okay, so relatively flattish quarter-over-quarter?

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

Yes.

Broderick Preston — UBS — Analyst

Awesome. Thank you very much for taking my questions, everyone. I appreciate it.

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Brody.

Operator

Thank you, Mr. Preston. We have a follow-up question from the line of Scott Siefers with Piper Sandler. You may now proceed.

Scott Siefers — Piper Sandler — Analyst

Hi, everyone, thank you for taking taking the question. Just sort of a [Indecipherable] just within the 9% to 12% NII guidance growth again, does that assume the contractual accretion or is there a different number baked into that?

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

It’s slightly slightly higher than the contractual accretion number, kind of in that typical 20%, 30% range.

Scott Siefers — Piper Sandler — Analyst

Okay, perfect. That was actually it. So thank you very much.

James C. Ryan — Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Scott.

Operator

Thank you, Mr. Siefers. The next question comes from the line of Jon Arfstrom with RBC Capital Markets. You may now proceed.

Jon Arfstrom — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst

Thanks, good morning. Like the others, just deepest condolences to everyone impacted. I wanted to get to a couple of follow-ups too. You used the term limited pricing exceptions in terms of your deposit management. How much more frequent is that today than, say, it was prior to mid-March?

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

I don’t know that it’s picked up materially. It’s been pretty steady since December. And I think if you look at the average interest-bearing cost and sort of the spot rate differences, 12.31 to 3.31, that pace hasn’t really increased. So I think it’s indicative. It’s a pretty steady state.

Mark G. Sander — President and Chief Operating Officer

We have competitive rack rates, as Brendon alluded to earlier, and some of the larger deposit balances we got to them early. And so — but most of that has played its way out. I wouldn’t say it’s done, but I would say the vast majority of the pricing exceptions is largely behind us because, again, the large balances were on it quickly. We’re also getting aggressive and on the offense judiciously in our markets, right, where we’re opening more accounts than we’re closing and raising balances across our footprint.

Jon Arfstrom — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst

Okay. Do you guys — this seems like a crazy question, but have things really changed that much in terms of deposit pricing since mid-March?

Mark G. Sander — President and Chief Operating Officer

Interesting question. Not really. It’s a great question. There’s been a lot more conversations, but the actual pricing hasn’t changed dramatically since mid-March.

Jon Arfstrom — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst

That was my sense, but I thought I should ask. A couple more things here. You’re talking about your relationship managers and the focus on the full banking relationship. Is that something that’s different that’s now expected from your borrowers and your relationship managers? Or does that change or restrict any opportunities for you? Just you’re talking about a tightened pricing structure, enhanced credit structure and kind of chasing deposits as well.

Mark G. Sander — President and Chief Operating Officer

I really appreciate that question because the answer is no. I mean that’s our model, right? It’s a relationship-based model, and we lend to people that bank with us. In times like this, you can be more adamant and forceful and disciplined, but I’d like to think candidly that we always are. And I think in general, we are, but this is a place where you draw a line in the sand a little bit more and make sure that that’s the case.

Jon Arfstrom — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst

Okay. And then just last one, this is a follow-up on Brody’s question. The S3 Moody’s rating is obviously pretty severe. Are you guys more concerned today about credit than you were a quarter ago? And if there’s a degree of whether you’re more concerned or not, you haven’t changed your views at all. And then what happens if that S3 is just way off and it doesn’t come true and where we end up in a much better spot than that.

James C. Ryan — Chief Executive Officer

Jon, let me take the top of that. I don’t think we’re meaningfully more concerned about credit today than we were heading into really all of last year and into this year. Obviously, we’re not immune from hearing about what’s going on in the economy. And — but as Mark said, we spent an awful lot of time with clients, and when we’re out with clients, we’re just not hearing that same kind of feedback that seems to be discussed in today’s new cycle. Having said that, we think it’s prudent and have had that opinion for quite some time. I guess the question gets back to maybe more of an accounting question about when do we think about a different forecast to run through there? And Brendon, I don’t know what else you’d add to that?

Brendon B. Falconer — Chief Financial Officer

No, obviously, I think there will be a time where whatever recession may or may not be coming hits, we’re going to — we’ll have to think about a different weighting for the Moody’s S3 and that would imply some opportunity for potential reserve relief depending on what the environment looks like.

James C. Ryan — Chief Executive Officer

Mark continues to lead us through portfolio reviews and making sure that we’re going through and doing deep dives on the entire book and particularly those areas that are generally more vulnerable. We’re going to continue to do that, look for kind of active, proactive management that we’ve always been known for. And if we identify weaknesses, we’re going to put them in the hospital quickly with the hope that they come out healthy again. And we’re just going to continue to do that. And that’s — we’re probably a little bit more sense to that today than we were maybe six months ago, but that’s absolutely the approach that we’ve always taken and in these kinds of times.

Jon Arfstrom — RBC Capital Markets — Analyst

Okay, all right, well, nice job, nice quarter.

James C. Ryan — Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Jon.

Operator

Thank you, Mr. Arfstrom. [Operator Instructions] There are no further questions registered at this time. I’d like to turn the call back over to Jim Ryan for closing remarks.

James C. Ryan — Chief Executive Officer

Well, thank you for your participation. Thank you for your support. It’s meant a lot to all of us. And as usual, if you have any follow-up questions, please don’t hesitate to reach out to the whole team. We’ll be here to answer anything you have. Thank you.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]