Tailored Brands stock drops on weak Q1 outlook

Tailored Brands (TLRD) swung to a profit in the fourth quarter from a loss last year, which included a favorable non-cash adjustment to net sales reflecting a reduction of the deferred revenue liability as a result of changes made to its loyalty programs. The bottom line exceeded analysts’ expectations while the top line missed consensus estimates. The specialty apparel retailer guided first-quarter earnings below the Street’s view. Following this, the stock plunged over 16% in the after-market session.

Net income was $6.22 million or $0.12 per share compared to a loss of $499,000 or $0.01 per share in the previous year quarter. The prior year results included a favorable non-cash adjustment to net sales totaling $17.6 million reflecting a reduction of the deferred revenue liability as a result of changes made to its loyalty programs during the fourth quarter of 2018. Adjusted loss was $0.28 per share compared to breakeven per share a year ago.

Total net sales fell 8.6% to $785.8 million. On an adjusted basis, which excludes the favorable impact of changes made to our loyalty programs, total net sales dropped 10.7%. Retail net sales decreased 7.3% due to the impact of last year’s 53rd week, the 1.5% decline in retail comparable sales and a $12 million decrease in alteration and other services revenue largely resulting from the MW Cleaners divestiture.

Corporate apparel net sales decreased 23.3% primarily due to lower replenishment demand in both the United Kingdom and the US, the impact of last year’s 53rd week, and the impact of a weaker British pound this year.

Looking ahead into the first quarter, the company expects adjusted earnings in the range of $0.10 to $0.15 per share. Corporate apparel net sales are predicted to be down 10% to 12%. Comparable sales for Men’s Wearhouse and Jos. A. Bank each is predicted to be down 3% to 5% while that for K&G is expected to be flat to up 2%. Moores comparable sales are projected to be down 5% to 7%.

The company expects to close three Jos. A. Bank stores in the first quarter of 2019. The company estimates a tax rate in the range of 30% to 33% primarily as a result of an increase in tax expense related to the accounting for employee share-based awards.

For the fourth quarter, Men’s Wearhouse comparable sales decreased 3.2% as a fall in both transactions and units per transaction dragged comparable sales for clothing lower. This was partially offset by an increase in average unit retail. Comparable rental services revenue inched up 0.7%.

Jos. A. Bank comparable sales inched down 0.5% primarily due to decreases in both transactions and units per transaction. However, K&G comparable sales inched up 0.9% due to rises in average unit retail. Moores comparable sales increased by 2.8% on higher average unit retail.

Shares of Tailored Brands ended Wednesday’s regular session down 2.58% at $11.69 on the NYSE. The stock has fallen over 49% in the past year and over 17% in the past three months.

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