What to expect when American Airlines (AAL) reports Q1 2025 earnings results

Shares of American Airlines Group (NASDAQ: AAL) stayed red on Thursday. The stock has dropped 48% over the past three months. The airline is slated to report its earnings results for the first quarter of 2025 on Thursday, April 24, before market open. Here’s a look at what to expect from the earnings report:

Revenue

In an investor update last month, American Airlines revised its outlook for the first quarter of 2025 due to a challenging operating environment. The company now expects its revenues for the first quarter to be flat compared to the same period a year ago. Its earlier expectation was for year-over-year revenue growth of 3-5%.

Analysts are forecasting revenues of $12.56 billion for Q1 2025, which implies a slight dip from $12.57 billion reported in Q1 2024. In Q4 2024, revenues increased nearly 5% year-over-year to $13.7 billion.

Earnings

AAL now expects adjusted loss per share for Q1 2025 to range between $0.60-0.80 versus its earlier forecast of $0.20-0.40. Analysts are estimating a loss of $0.67 per share for the quarter, which compares to a loss of $0.34 per share reported in the year-ago period. In Q4 2024, the company delivered adjusted earnings per share of $0.86.

Points to note

The airline industry is facing a difficult operating environment with rising macroeconomic uncertainty and lower demand for travel. American Airlines has also been impacted as wildfires, aviation incidents and softness in domestic leisure travel led to lower revenues. Tariff-related uncertainties have also sparked widespread concerns in general.

AAL continues to focus on improving its customer experience and enhancing its premium products. In Q4, premium revenue increased around 8% YoY, and its AAdvantage loyalty program members accounted for 75% of premium cabin revenue. The company is also strengthening its network through airline partnerships.

The company’s outlook for capacity and CASM-ex, which is cost per available seat mile, excluding fuel and special items, remains unchanged. AAL expects capacity for Q1 2025 to be flat to down 2% YoY while CASM-ex is expected to be up high-single-digits.