What to expect when Starbucks (SBUX) reports Q4 2023 earnings

Shares of Starbucks Corporation (NASDAQ: SBUX) were up over 1% on Monday. The stock has dropped 5% year-to-date. The coffee chain is slated to report its fourth quarter 2023 earnings results on Thursday, November 2, before market open. Here’s a look at what to expect from the earnings report:

Revenue

Analysts are projecting revenue of $8.8 billion for Starbucks in Q4 2023, which represents a growth of 4% from the same period a year ago. Net revenues increased 12% year-over-year to $9.2 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

Earnings

The consensus estimate for Q4 EPS is $0.92 which compares to EPS of $0.81 reported in the prior-year period. Adjusted EPS grew 19% to $1.00 in Q3 2023.

Points to note

Starbucks saw strong momentum in its business during the third quarter with revenue and earnings growth in the double-digits. Comparable sales grew 10%, driven by increases in transactions and average ticket. The company has benefited from brand strength, product innovation and its Reinvention Plan. This is expected to continue in the fourth quarter as well.

The North America segment saw revenue growth driven by growth in comparable store sales supported by increases in ticket and transactions. The US business benefited from pricing, food attach and customization. Licensed stores in the US witnessed strong momentum with revenue gaining 21% in Q3.

The International segment also saw revenue growth along with recovery in China during Q3. Starbucks expects margins in the International division to expand on a year-over-year basis in Q4 but to be lower than Q3 due to both seasonality as well as higher investments in store renovation and digital capabilities. It expects average weekly sales in China to grow in the low to mid-single digits in Q4.

In the Channel Development segment, Starbucks saw revenue decline in Q3 due to lower revenue from the Global Coffee Alliance. It expects revenue pressures to continue in the fourth quarter, driven mainly by the at-home coffee business due to shifts in customer behavior. Revenue in this segment is expected to be largely flat to the prior year in Q4.