Revenue
Earnings
American Airlines expects its adjusted loss per share for Q1 2024 to come at the low end of its prior range of $0.15-0.35. Analysts are forecasting a loss of $0.29 per share for the first quarter, which compares to adjusted EPS of $0.05 reported in the year-ago period. In Q4 2023, adjusted EPS was $0.29.
Points to note
The strong demand for air travel, especially the momentum in business travel, is likely to have helped American Airlines in the first quarter. Last quarter, passenger revenues were down 1% YoY. Total revenue per available seat mile (TRASM) was down 6% YoY in Q4. For the first quarter, AAL expects TRASM to be down 3.5-5.5% YoY.
The company forecasts capacity to be up 6.5-8.5% YoY in Q1 2024. Capacity was up nearly 6% in Q4 2023. Cost per available seat mile, excluding fuel and net special items, or CASM-ex, is expected to be up 2-4% YoY in Q1 2024. Average fuel price per gallon is expected to range between $2.80-2.90 in Q1.
The airline’s AAdvantage travel rewards program is another positive point as it continues to see strength among small and medium-sized businesses. Last year, two-thirds of AAL’s revenue came from AAdvantage customers. These customers also account of 70% of the company’s upsell loyalty and partnership revenue.