What to look for when American Airlines (AAL) reports Q3 2024 earnings results

Shares of American Airlines Group (NASDAQ: AAL) rose over 2% on Friday. The stock has gained 24% over the past three months. The airline is slated to report its third quarter 2024 earnings results on Thursday, October 24, before markets open. Here’s a look at what to expect from the earnings report:

Revenue

Analysts are projecting revenues of $13.47 billion for AAL for the third quarter of 2024, which reflects a slight dip from revenues of $13.48 billion reported in the same period a year ago. In the second quarter of 2024, revenues increased 2% year-over-year to $14.3 billion.

Earnings

The consensus target for earnings per share in Q3 2024 is $0.15, which compares to adjusted EPS of $0.38 reported in the prior-year quarter. In Q2 2024, adjusted EPS amounted to $1.09.

Points to note

Last quarter, American Airlines faced softness in the domestic marketplace. Revenues were impacted by excess industry supply leading to higher-than-expected discounting activity. Adverse weather also impacted operations at several hubs.

In its Q2 report, the company guided for third quarter travel to be down 2.5-4.5% year-over-year. AAL lowered its planned capacity growth for the back half of the year and had projected capacity growth of approx. 3% for Q3.

The company forecasted CASMx for Q3 2024 to be up approx. 1-3% YoY, and fuel price to range between $2.55-2.75 per gallon. It projected adjusted operating margin to be 2-4% in Q3.

AAL is likely to have benefited from strong travel demand during the summer and from the drop in fuel costs and these benefits could be reflected in its Q3 results. The company is also expected to benefit from growth in loyalty revenues and gains from its AAdvantage business program.