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Analysis

Cleveland-Cliffs down after Q4 loss as margins remain under pressure

$CLF February 9, 2026 3 min read

Shares of Cleveland-Cliffs Inc (NYSE: CLF) slid in early trading Monday after the steelmaker reported fourth-quarter and full-year 2025 results marked by a sizeable loss and stagnant revenue.

CLF was down about 3% to 4% in morning trade. The stock has traded in a roughly 30% range over the past 52 weeks, with a high near $17.50 and a low near $10.00, reflecting volatility tied to cyclical steel demand and earnings disappointments.

Quarterly Results

For the quarter ended Dec. 31, 2025, Cleveland-Cliffs reported consolidated revenues of $4.3 billion, essentially unchanged from the year-ago quarter’s $4.3 billion. The company posted a GAAP net loss of $235 million, or $0.44 per share, compared with a net loss of $434 million, or $0.92 per share, in the fourth quarter of 2024. Adjusted net loss for the quarter was $0.43 per share. Adjusted EBITDA recorded a loss of $21 million, narrower than the $81 million EBITDA loss in Q4 2024, reflecting some cost discipline but continued pressure on operating margins.

Steel shipments were 3.8 million net tons, broadly in line with levels from the prior year period. Management highlighted unit cost reductions and contract renewals with automotive customers as operational positives, though the underlying demand environment remained challenged.

Year-Over-Year and Full-Year Context

For the full year 2025, revenues fell to $18.6 billion from $19.2 billion in 2024. Cleveland-Cliffs recorded a GAAP net loss of $1.4 billion, or $2.91 per diluted share, compared with a net loss of $714 million, or $1.58 per diluted share, a year ago. Adjusted net loss widened to $2.48 per share from $0.74 per share in 2024. Adjusted EBITDA for 2025 was $37 million, sharply down from $773 million in 2024, underscoring the macro headwinds faced throughout the year.

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CEO Lourenco Goncalves said weak automotive sector production, an expiring slab contract that became value-destructive late in its term, and adverse market dynamics in Canada weighed on full-year results. The company said these conditions had improved entering 2026 and expressed optimism about the trade environment in the U.S. and prospects for improved performance.

2026 Guidance and Outlook

Cleveland-Cliffs provided initial expectations for the full year 2026, including steel shipment volumes of 16.5 million to 17.0 million net tons and further steel unit cost reductions of about $10 per net ton, along with capital expenditures of about $700 million. Management also forecast selling, general, and administrative expenses of roughly $575 million and depreciation, depletion, and amortization of about $1.1 billion.

Broader Market and Sector Conditions

Cleveland-Cliffs operates in the cyclical U.S. steel industry, where demand is closely tied to automotive production, construction activity, and broader manufacturing trends. The sector has faced pressure from softening auto demand, steel price volatility, and import competition, which have weighed on both volumes and margins. Trade policy, including tariffs and antidumping measures, has been a factor in pricing and competitive dynamics. Investors are also watching the potential strategic partnership with South Korea’s POSCO, which Cliffs has said remains a priority and could be accretive if concluded in the first half of 2026.

Competitive & Operating Factors

Cleveland-Cliffs has sought to optimize its footprint, exit non-core assets, and reduce unit costs. It also reported record safety performance metrics for the year. However, margins remain thin in a challenging demand environment, and future performance will be sensitive to changes in steel prices and automotive industry trends.

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