What to expect when Mattel (MAT) reports its Q3 2025 earnings results

Shares of Mattel, Inc. (NASDAQ: MAT) were up 1% on Friday. The stock has dropped 5% in the past three months. The toymaker is slated to report its earnings results for the third quarter of 2025 on Tuesday, October 21, after market close. Here’s a look at what to expect from the earnings report:

Revenue

Analysts are projecting revenue of $1.84 billion for Mattel in the third quarter of 2025, which is comparable to the third quarter of 2024. In the second quarter of 2025, net sales decreased 6% year-over-year to $1 billion.

Earnings

The consensus target for earnings per share in Q3 2025 is $1.06, which implies a decline of 7% from the prior-year period. In Q2 2025, adjusted EPS remained flat YoY at $0.19.

Points to note

Mattel expects net sales to improve in the back half of the year. The company has been seeing positive POS in the US and international markets in the third quarter. MAT can be expected to benefit from the strength of its brand portfolio, and from anticipated growth in the toy industry, supported by positive demand and consumer engagement trends.

Mattel is likely to benefit from continued momentum in categories such as Action Figures, Vehicles, and Games. Action Figures has seen growth driven by tentpole movie properties like Jurassic and Minecraft, while Vehicles continues to be fueled by the strong performance of Hot Wheels. Hot Wheels is expected to see continued growth during the year.

Last quarter, the Dolls category saw a decline due to fewer new product launches in Barbie. Mattel remains confident in the strength of this brand and anticipates a pickup later in the year with new product innovation and partnerships.

Mattel has been working on expanding its business beyond toys and into the broader entertainment space with a focus on highly accretive verticals such as franchises, consumer products, and digital games. Its strategy of producing movies based on its brands is expected to continue yielding benefits.

The company is expected to benefit from growing demand from adult collectors for its products. The Barbie and Hot Wheels brands are benefiting from this trend. Hot Wheels has substantial opportunity for growth from partnerships with brands like F1 and Ferrari and from the launch of mobile and video games.

Last quarter, Mattel saw gross margins expand, helped mainly by savings from its Optimizing for Profitable Growth program. This program is likely to have yielded benefits during the third quarter as well.