What to expect when Alaska Air Group (ALK) reports Q4 2025 earnings results

Shares of Alaska Air Group (NYSE: ALK) stayed green on Thursday. The stock has dropped 29% in the past 12 months. The airline is scheduled to publish its earnings results for the fourth quarter of 2025 on Thursday, January 22, after market close. Here’s a look at what to expect from the earnings report:

Revenue

Alaska is projected to report revenue of $3.64 billion for the fourth quarter of 2025, which indicates a growth of around 3% from the same period a year ago. In the third quarter of 2025, total operating revenue increased 23% year-over-year to $3.76 billion.

Earnings

Alaska has guided for adjusted earnings per share of around $0.10 for Q4 2025. Analysts are predicting EPS of $0.11 for Q4, which points to a decrease of 88% from the year-ago quarter. In Q3 2025, adjusted EPS fell 53% YoY to $1.05.

Points to note

In an investor update last month, Alaska said its bottom line was negatively hurt by an IT outage, lost revenue from the government shutdown, and higher fuel costs during the fourth quarter. These factors led to a reduction in its EPS outlook from the previous expectation of $0.40. The company also said that revenue, which had shown strong trends prior to the shutdown, turned negative during the incident and had not returned to pre-shutdown levels.

Alaska now expects unit revenue to be up around 1% and capacity to be up around 2% in the fourth quarter versus the previous year. CASMex is now expected to be up around 3%. The airline had previously guided for unit revenue and CASMex to be up low single digits and capacity to be up 2-3%.