Zions Bancorp. N.A. (ZION) Q1 2022 Earnings Call Transcript

Zions Bancorp. N.A.  (NASDAQ: ZION) Q1 2022 earnings call dated Apr. 25, 2022

Corporate Participants:

James R. Abbott — Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and External Communications

Harris H. Simmons — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Scott J. McLean — President and Chief Operating Officer

Paul E. Burdiss — Chief Financial Officer

Michael Morris — Executive Vice President and Chief Credit Officer

Analysts:

Chris McGratty — KBW — Analyst

Ebrahim Poonawala — Bank of America — Analyst

Ken Usdin — Jefferies — Analyst

Jennifer Demba — Truist Securities — Analyst

John Pancari — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Peter Winter — Wedbush Securities — Analyst

Bradley Milsaps — Piper Sandler — Analyst

Gary Tenner — D.A. Davidson — Analyst

Stephen Moss — B. Riley Securities — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Greetings. Welcome to the Zions Bancorporation Q1 Earnings Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] Please note this conference is being recorded.

I will now turn the conference over to your host, James Abbott, Director of Investor Relations. You may begin.

James R. Abbott — Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and External Communications

Thank you, Kyle, and good evening. We welcome you to this conference call to discuss our 2022 first quarter earnings. I would like to remind you that during this call we will be making forward-looking statements, although, actual results may differ materially. We encourage you to review the disclaimer in the press release or the slide deck on Slide 2 dealing with forward-looking information and the presentation of non-GAAP measures which apply equally to statements made during this call. A copy of the earnings release, as well as the slide deck are available at zionsbancorporation.com.

For our agenda today, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, Harris Simmons will provide opening remarks, followed by comments from Scott McLean, our President and Chief Operating Officer. Paul Burdiss, our Chief Financial Officer will conclude by providing additional detail on Zions’ financial condition. With us also today is Keith Maio, our Chief Risk Officer; and Michael Morris, our Chief Credit Officer. We intend to limit the length of this call to one hour. During the question-and-answer section of the call, we request that you limit your question to one primary and one follow-up question to enable other participants to ask questions.

I will now turn the time over to Harris.

Harris H. Simmons — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks very much, James. We want to welcome all of you to our call. Beginning on Slide 3, we’re showing some themes that are particularly applicable to Zions’ recent quarters and some that are likely to be extreme in the near-term horizon.

Loans exclusive of PPP loans increased $1.2 billion during the quarter, maintaining the momentum that developed in the prior quarter. We saw strong growth in C&I and municipal loans, on our occupied loans also saw a good growth in part due to promotional campaigns. Overall, we are pleased with the loan growth in the first quarter and expect moderate levels of loan growth will be sustainable through the remainder of the year.

We’ve invested significantly in securities during the past two years, we believe the securities portfolio is at least for the next few months unlikely to increase significantly from here, although, the size of the portfolio will ultimately be determined by loan growth and deposit flows. With the recent strength in loan growth, we expect that any near-term growth of deposits would — might materialize in addition to some of the excess cash on our balance sheet would be invested in loans rather than securities.

As many of you know, we’re well positioned for rising rates. The futures market is pricing in a Fed Funds rate of approximately 3.5% by mid ’23, or an increase of about 3 percentage points. We believe we have an exceptional deposit franchise and given the interest rate environment expected by market participants, we expect it will begin to see much more of the value of these deposits emerge in our financial results in coming quarters. The final item on this slide refers to our ongoing significant investment in technology, which is designed to enable us to remain very competitive in the future.

If you turn to Slide 4, we are generally pleased with the quarterly financial results, which are summarized on this slide. And as much as we’ll touch on these items in subsequent slides, I’m going to move on, but you might find the summary useful.

So if we got to Slide 5. Diluted earnings per share was $1.27 comparing the first quarter to the fourth quarter, the single most significant difference was in the provision for credit loss, which was a $0.28 per share positive variance, which can be seen on the bottom left chart. Our provision this quarter improved our earnings per share by $0.16, whereas in the prior quarter, the provision reduced earnings per share by $0.12. The other major factor that contributed to earnings was income from PPP loans, which was $0.12 per share in the first quarter. Finally, there were other items noted on the right side of the page that largely offset one another in terms of the impact on earnings per share.

Turning to Slide 6. Our first quarter adjusted pre-provision net revenue was $241 million. The adjustments which most notably eliminate the gain or loss on securities are shown in the latter pages of the press release and of this slide deck. The PPNR bars are split into two portions. The bottom portion represents what we think of as generally recurring income, while the top portion denotes the revenue we’ve received from PPP loans net of direct external professional services expenses associated with the forgiveness of these loans. These loans contributed $24 million to PPNR in the first quarter. As you can see, exclusive of PPP income, we experienced an increase in adjusted PPNR of 8% over the past year and on a per share basis it increased 17%.

On Slide 7, we’ve included a chart to help understand the sequential quarter change in PPNR. I’ve already noted the reduced income from PPP loans, we also experienced a decline in certain non-customer related fee income items, which was largely due to non-recurring gains on real property sales in the fourth quarter and reduced earnings on private equity investments and trading losses in the first quarter. The expense item shown in the middle of the chart are largely seasonal in nature, although, we did increase our incentive compensation accruals to align with the revenue outlook that now includes the effect of expected rate increases. Non-PPP net interest income increased about $10 million, and finally, there was a $10 million charitable contribution in the prior period that weighed somewhat on that quarter.

Turning to Slide 8. Shifting away from the discussion on the financial results to a couple of highlights in our strategic plan. We are pleased to report continued strong progress with upgrading our online and mobile banking platforms to a single platform has the same look and feel in both applications as well as functionality. We completed that for the consumer side of the business about a year ago and we’ve been rolling out similar upgrades to our small business banking customers. Since year-end, we’ve converted over 145,000 business customers to this new and highly competitive digital and online banking platform, with remaining 25% of such customers to be converted to the new platform during May.

The results of the upgrade are reflected in the surveys we’ve done, which have been very positive, and in the mobile space we’ve seen a much improved rating from customers as compared to our previous application, and also when compared to the applications for other large regional banks, which was shown to you in prior presentations.

Going to Slide 9, a major strategic initiative for us is to organically grow our business customer base at a rate that exceeds the natural business formation rate. It’s relatively easy to increase loan and deposit balances by increasing hold limits lowering credit standards are offering below market rates for loans and above market yields for deposits. But to grow customers, it requires a lot of work, specifically in the service category. We’ve relied upon Greenwich Associates’ research to help us understand the areas in which we perform well and areas that need improvement.

This year, we ranked second overall out of all the banks in the country in middle markets, small business satisfaction with 27 Excellence Awards. Shown on this slide Greenwich has provided us with additional detail behind some of the rankings. Across the top half of the page are a few select categories pertaining to survey responses for middle market business customers and across the bottom half of the page are similar results from small business customers.

Zions’ score as denoted within each chart, along with the average score of the peer group members of those that peer group were listed elsewhere in this document and in our proxy filing. And also the average score of four major banks against whom we compete for business within our markets, notably, JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Wells Fargo and U.S. Bank. We’re encouraged with such strength in these and many other categories, the net promoter score from Greenwich’s surveys is of course a widely used parameter of customer experience and one that can be mapped to other industries. Our strong showing is a reflection of our efforts to provide exceptional customer service, top-notch products and superior technology to enable faster and safer service and products. Additional detail is available on this topic in the appendix.

Slide 30. We expect that the strength of our reputation will continue to support our efforts regarding customer growth. Ultimately, this customer growth should translate into both granular and solvent increases in loan and deposit balances.

And with that, I’m going to ask Scott McLean, our President and COO to provide an update on loan growth, certain fee income initiatives and our technology investments. Scott?

Scott J. McLean — President and Chief Operating Officer

Thank you, Harris. Moving to Slide 10. A significant highlight for us this quarter was the strong performance in average and period end loan growth. Average and period end non-PPP loans increased $1.2 billion or an unannualized 2.5% when compared to the fourth quarter. The yield on average total loans decreased 21 basis points from the prior quarter, which is partially attributable to a shift in the mix of loans, with average PPP loans declining $1 billion and being replaced by non-PPP loans, which have a lower yield. The loans that are replacing PPP loans have yields generally in the 3% to 4% range. Excluding PPP loans, the yield declined 13 basis points to 3.43% from 3.56%. A portion of which is attributable to elevated prepayment penalty income recognized in the fourth quarter. But also the effect of some of our promotional campaigns and the maturity of interest rate swaps.

Deposit costs remained low. Shown on the right, our cost of total deposits was stable at just 3 basis points in the first quarter. Average deposit growth slowed compared to recent quarters with average total deposits increasing nearly $200 million or 0.2%, 20 basis points unannualized. Period end deposits declined more than $400 million or 0.5%, largely due to the expected quantitative tightening by the Federal Reserve, we expect deposit balance growth trends to be closer to stable to perhaps slightly increasing, although, clearly we are in unchartered territory.

Moving to Slide 11 Loans to businesses increased $1.1 billion with considerable strength in C&I and owner occupied of nearly $800 million of linked quarter growth and more than $275 million of municipal loans. Additionally, we saw growth with our home equity lines of credit and 1-4 family mortgages. This is particularly encouraging because we experienced $1.5 billion of attrition in 1-4 family mortgage loans from December 2019 through December 2021. This growth was partially offset by a contraction in our CRE term and energy portfolios.

Our loan portfolios in most of our markets showed growth with strength in C&I from California and Utah, municipal growth from Arizona and owner-occupied in all our markets. Our utilization rates on approximately $33 billion in revolving commitments increased 0.2 percentage points to 35.1%, compared to the prior quarter level of 34.9%. This compares to a pre-pandemic utilization rate in the fourth quarter of 2019 of 39.2%. If we were to return to that level, assuming no further change to the revolving commitments that would result in about $1.2 billion of additional loan balances. As I previously noted, we expect that we’ll see line utilization continue to strengthen as businesses work to rebuild their inventories.

Turning to Slide 12, regarding non-interest income. Customer-related fees were $151 million, of which about $6 million was attributable to a one-time accrual adjustment in commercial account fees. Normalizing for that effect, the customer-related fee income increased about 9% over the prior year. Activity-based fees, such as card, merchant services and retail and business banking service charges remain strong and recovered from pandemic softness to exceed our 2019 levels. This improvement is additive to continued strength and wealth management and treasury management fees. Compared to the prior quarter, we experienced a decline in capital markets income where the fourth quarter was particularly strong in syndications and foreign exchange. Notably and highlighted on the page, we are planning to reduce some of our overdraft and non-sufficient funds fees. We expect that this will reduce our fee income by about $5 million or so per quarter beginning in the third quarter of this year.

Turning to Slide 13. Our mortgage activity continued both quarterly and annual record setting pace with fundings reaching $1.2 billion for the second consecutive quarter. This represents a 38% year-over-year increase compared to a 36% decline for the NBA industry Market Index. The outperformance versus the industry would largely be attributable to three factors. First, the attractiveness of our mortgage product to our core small business and affluent clients. Secondly, success of our digital mortgage application platform representing now 95% of all applications, up from 100% paper in 2018. Significant process enhancements tailored to improve the experience for our customers and especially our affluent segment.

Mortgage fees improved to $7 million compared to approximately $4 million in the fourth quarter, this is well below the quarterly average from 2021, as the demand for salable fixed rate product declines. However, the benefit is that we are producing more products that can be held for investment on our balance sheet, and which was a contributor to the growth in the 1-4 family mortgage portfolio that I noted earlier.

Regarding Slide 14, this slide highlights the number of major technology initiatives that are underway, and the customer segments that benefit from these enhancements. Harris noted how well the implementation our digital banking replacement has gone and the positive feedback we’re receiving from the consumers and small businesses utilizing this enhanced capability. While there’s a lot to talk about on this slide, I will only note that our future core project — the final third phase, which replaces our previous core deposit and branch platform is on track for a 2023 implementation.

With that, I’ll now turn the time over to our Chief Financial Officer, Paul Burdiss.

Paul E. Burdiss — Chief Financial Officer

Thank you, Scott, and good evening everyone. Nearly 80% of our revenue is net interest income, which is significantly influenced by loan and deposit growth and associated interest rates. Scott has already discussed the loan growth. Moving to Slide 15, we show our securities and money market investment portfolios over the past five quarters. The size of the period end securities portfolio increased by nearly $10 billion over the past year to $27 billion. Money market investments had been increasing significantly with the growth in deposits. Money market investments declined in the quarter by $5 billion to $7.4 billion reflecting growth in loans and securities and a modest decline in period end deposits.

The combination of securities and money market investments is now 40% of total earning assets at period end, which compares to an average level in 2019 before the pandemic of 26%. Over time, we would expect the mix of highly liquid assets such as securities and money market investments to revert to historical levels. We continue to exercise caution regarding duration extension risk by purchasing bonds with moderate duration both in the current and in an upward shock scenario, the durations of both are listed on the bottom left-hand side of the page.

The $4.7 billion of securities purchases for the quarter had an average yield of 2.1%, which is about 40 basis points higher than the prior quarter’s yield. The annualized rate of principal and prepayment based cash flow coming from the securities portfolio was $4.2 billion in the first quarter. Again that’s an annualized rate and depending upon the opportunity, we expect to be able to deploy the majority of that cash into either loans or higher yielding securities. Also depicted on Slide 15 is a summary of our interest rate swap portfolio, maturity and yield information by quarter. This includes both maturing swaps and forward starting swaps that are in place today, but won’t be reflected in our financial results until the start date.

Slide 16 is an overview of net interest income and the net interest margin. The chart on the left shows the recent five quarter trend for both. The net interest margin in the white boxes has trended down over the past year but gained 2 basis points this quarter. The trend reflects the change in earning asset mix due to the deposit driven rise in excess liquidity over the past year, as described on the prior page. Until the first quarter growth in deposits has impacted the composition of earning assets through a larger concentration in lower yielding money market and securities investments. The weighted average yield of our securities and money market investments is 1.39%, an increase of 30 basis points over the prior quarter. The volume and yield of securities coupled with a smaller balance of money market investments help to improve the net interest margin. Importantly, the increased interest income from securities over the past quarter and year have helped to make up the shortfall from decreased PPP related revenues and have underscored the value of our exceptional deposit growth.

Slide 17 shows information about our interest rate sensitivity. Focusing on the upper left hand quadrant, as a general statement, we remain very asset sensitive. Each 100 basis points, a parallel shift adds — would add approximately $175 million of annual net interest income or just under about $0.90 per share holding all other factors constant. Our estimated interest rate sensitivity to 100 basis point parallel interest rate shock was about 4 percentage points lower in the first quarter than that reported in the fourth quarter.

A portion of this reflects the higher denominator, that is net interest income as our outlook for net interest income from the March 2022 starting point was materially higher than at the same outlook at the end of 2021. This change is largely attributable to increased loans, increased securities and a steeper yield curve. The remaining change in asset sensitivity is due to active balance sheet hedging. We may continue to add interest rate swaps, including forward starting swaps, which would help to dampen our natural asset sensitivity, we expect to begin to see the impact of short-term interest rate increases in the second quarter as approximately 40% of our earning assets after giving the effect to swaps are tied to indices within one year.

Non-interest expenses on Slide 18, grew by $15 million from the prior quarter to $464 million. Adjusted non-interest expense increased $18 million or 4% again to $464 million. The linked quarter increase in adjusted non-interest expense was primarily due to seasonal expenses typically experienced in the first quarter related to compensation, which was the same factors that affected pre-provision net revenue as detailed earlier by Harris. These seasonal expenses were somewhat offset by a decrease from the $10 million charitable donation made in the fourth quarter.

You may have noticed that we made some changes to the categorization of non-interest expense in the current quarter on the face of our financial statements. As the banking industry continues to move toward information technology-based products and services, we have improved the presentation and disclosure of certain expenses related to our technology-related investments and operations. These improved disclosures will be amplified in our upcoming 10-Q filing.

Another significant highlight for the quarter was the credit quality of the loan portfolio, as illustrated on Slide 19. Relative to the prior quarter, we saw continued improvement in problem loans. Using the broadest definition of problem loans, the balance of criticized and classified loans dropped 11% and classified loans dropped 7%, although not shown relative to the prior quarter, special mention loans declined 20%. Of course, net charge-offs to average loans is the most important measure of credit quality. We had only 5 basis points of annualized net charge-offs relative to average non-PPP loans in the first quarter and a loss rate was only 1 basis point in the prior quarter. Shown on the chart on the bottom right, one can see the volatility of the provision for credit loss contrasted with the relative stability of net charge-offs.

Slide 20 details our allowance for credit losses or ACL. In the upper left, we show a recent declining trend in the ACL over the past several quarters. At the end of the first quarter, the ACL was $514 million or 1.02% of non-PPP loans. The economic scenarios that we use to build our quantitative ACL model improved relative to the prior quarter, and we released the qualitative reserves associated with expected losses related to the pandemic. However, as a partial offset to that, we raised the probability of a recession in our assessment of the economy largely due to changes in uncertainty about the spillover effects of the war in Eastern Europe and because of the risk inflation may have on our borrowers’ profit margins.

Our loss absorbing capital position is shown on Slide 21. We repurchased $50 million of common stock in the first quarter. With the loan growth we achieved in the quarter and continued minimal charge-offs, we believe that our capital position is generally aligned with balance sheet and operating risk. We typically show that trailing five quarters in our investor slides, but in this case, we went back to a year before the pandemic in order to provide a longer perspective. In the chart on the left, you will note that we had reduced our common equity Tier 1 ratio to 10.2% in the fourth quarter of 2019. And with the onset of the pandemic and with line draws in the first quarter of 2020, we saw the CET1 ratio declined to 10%. After capital growth through intentional earnings retention, during the uncertainty of the pandemic, the CET1 ratio has now returned to 10% in the current quarter.

Shown on the right are our credit losses, we’ve intentionally matched the scale on both charts so that you can see the order of magnitude of losses incurred during this time frame relative to the capital set aside for expected loss, also known as the allowance for credit losses and the capital set aside for unexpected loss in the form of common equity. Given the extremely low level of loss, we believe our capital position is appropriately strong relative to our risk profile.

Our financial outlook can be found on Slide 22. This is our best current estimate for financial performance for the first quarter of 2023 as compared to the actual results reported for the first quarter of 2022. The results in between are subject to normal seasonality. Consistent with recent quarters, our outlook for loan and net interest income exclude PPP loans. The impact of PPP loans on interest income is expected to dissipate over the next couple of quarters. We reiterate our outlook for loan growth at moderately increasing. We are expecting net interest income, also excluding PPP loan revenue to increase over the next year. As noted previously, we believe our net interest income will improve as interest rates increased, particularly along the short end of the curve.

We had another successful quarter for customer-related fees, and we remain optimistic that many components of fee income will continue to grow. However, the reduction of overdraft and non-sufficient fund fees, which Scott discussed previously and with mortgage banking fee income likely to decrease as the production shifts to held for investment our outlook for customer-related fees has shifted to stable from slightly increasing. For adjusted non-interest expense, we are reiterating our expectation of moderately increasing with the largest risk factor continuing to be wage and price pressure.

Finally, regarding capital management, we are hopeful that our capital will continue to be deployed to support customer-driven balance sheet growth. As a reminder, share repurchase and dividend decisions are made by our Board of Directors, and as such, we expect to announce any capital actions for the second quarter in conjunction with our regularly scheduled Board meeting this coming Friday. This concludes our prepared remarks.

Kyle, would you please open the line for questions?

Questions and Answers:

Operator

[Operator Instructions]. Our first question is from Chris McGratty with KBW. Please proceed with your question.

Chris McGratty — KBW — Analyst

Hey, great. Thanks for the question. I want to start with the net interest income guide. I believe last quarter, it did not include the forward curve. And this quarter, I think your slide suggests it does, but the guidance didn’t change. I’m interested in kind of the commentary about what the assumptions are within that.

Paul E. Burdiss — Chief Financial Officer

Sure. This is Paul. I’ll start. There are only so many agitans we can use to describe things that are going up or going down. I think we’ve been pretty clear that even without rate increases, we’re expecting what we termed strong net interest income growth. And as outlined in my prepared remarks and on the slides, and as we’ve noted previously, we’re — because we’re asset sensitive, we expect any increase in rates from here on out to be additive to net interest income. So the interest rate increase in short-term rates that we saw from the Fed was at the very end of March, that did not show up much in the current quarter. We’re in the first quarter. We’re expecting that to start to show up in the second quarter and then incremental rate increases beyond that, we expect to be worked into net interest income.

Chris McGratty — KBW — Analyst

Okay. So if I understand that, you’re not changing the guide for net interest income, even though the slide suggests you put the forward curve and it didn’t adjust. So I’m just trying to try don’t miss anything there.

Paul E. Burdiss — Chief Financial Officer

Well, yeah, I think the key is that, as I said, there are only so many sort of — without getting into a lot of numbers, there’s only so many additives we can use to describe growth. And we believe that — we continue to believe that our net interest income, even without interest rates is going to be up for the year, any incremental increases in short-term rates will be added to that.

Chris McGratty — KBW — Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Paul E. Burdiss — Chief Financial Officer

Sure.

Operator

Our next question is from Ebrahim Poonawala with Bank of America. Please proceed with your question.

Ebrahim Poonawala — Bank of America — Analyst

Hey, good afternoon. I guess just wanted to go back as to your outlook on loan growth, seems fairly bullish in terms of demand across the board. One, if you could talk to us in terms of regionally or by category type, any particular industries that’s driving growth? And then clearly, there’s a lot of concern around Fed actions, maybe some incremental supply chain disruptions impacting customer sentiment as we look into the back half of the year. Just give us your sense of — based on what you see in terms of your borrowers, how you think the Fed actions will impact borrower demand to the extent you can as we look back into — later this year?

Harris H. Simmons — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. Well, first of all, in terms of categories where I think we’re going to likely see growth through the remainder of the year. I mean, we’ve had — we’re seeing pretty solid growth in — just in C&I. That’s — we show that excluding energy, and we could see some growth in energy. But I think just broad-based C&I growth is going to be pretty solid this year. Scott also talked about the fact that we’ve got a very nice pipeline despite rising rates in our mortgage operation. And A lot of those are — a lot of our production are 5-1, 7-1, 10-1 [Phonetic] adjustable rate mortgages that we’re putting on the balance sheet.

And we’ve — I think we’ve seen the end of kind of the refi phase of this cycle. And I would expect that we’re going to see growth in that component. We continued to see good growth in municipal. We had one larger deal that came on this quarter that’s going to come off in August, I believe, later this year. as kind of an opportunistic deal. But overall, I think we’ll still — I expect to see decent growth in municipal. I don’t know, decent certainly mid single-digits or better.

And so those are some of the primary areas where I would expect that we’re going to see growth. In terms of geographically, we’re seeing it. We’re pretty much seeing it across the entire Western United States. I think that with respect to customer sentiment, supply chain issues and Fed actions, there’s nothing that — maybe we’ve got probably a generation of people in this industry who’ve never seen higher interest rates around prior to 2007. But if we were to see a 3.5% or 4% Fed Funds rate, and we’ve had some pretty strong economies back through time with that kind of interest rate picture.

And I personally don’t think it’s going to be enough to derail the economy. I think that Fed loses control if they — if inflation really gets out of hand, certainly, that could, and we could see a recession. That would slow things down. But I don’t think that anything that we’re seeing in terms of — Fed Funds futures market suggests that we’re going to see the kinds of interest rates that historically have created a lot of problem. And in fact, I tend to believe that you have a lot of businesses that are going to be working to build inventory to all these supply chain issues have made it and kind of the geopolitical risk in the world, I think probably, this is my own supposition, I know science for this, but that you’re going to see a lot of businesses saying they need to source more domestically that they need to shorten their supply lines and build more inventory cushion than maybe they’ve had before, because they’ve seen a lot of lost business because they didn’t have inventory through this recovery. So I personally am relatively same when I think about what the next few quarters probably hold.

Ebrahim Poonawala — Bank of America — Analyst

Got it. Thanks for that. And one quick follow-up, maybe Paul, for you. If I heard you correctly, the core loan yields went down 13 basis points. We saw LIBOR had hired through the course of the first quarter. Just give us a sense of why the 13 basis points decline, was it a mix change in the loan book that led to that decline? And just how much of the book is LIBOR versus prime rate?

Paul E. Burdiss — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. There is a little bit of mix change involved in that. There were — we our ongoing promotional rates on loans, which we’ve talked about previously, had an adverse impact overall on loan yields, but that’s, I think, temporary. And then we had some interest rate swaps that matured in the quarter that also adversely impacted that by a couple of basis points.

Ebrahim Poonawala — Bank of America — Analyst

And do you see in of these being a drag going forward, or is that kind of done?

Paul E. Burdiss — Chief Financial Officer

Well, the — my largest concern as it relates to loan yields is ongoing competition in an environment where there’s a lot of excess liquidity in the system that would cause spread compression. I think that’s our biggest risk to, frankly, to loan yield expansion. But I think it’s substantially well entirely more than offset by our asset sensitivity. I believe because we’ve got sort of more floating rate earning assets than liabilities. We are naturally — as interest rates go up, we’re naturally going to see an expansion of net interest income.

Harris H. Simmons — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Paul, one thing is good noting is that the prepayment penalty fourth quarter was a significant contributor to the yield in the fourth quarter. And so as that prepayment penalty income dropped off in the first quarter, that was also a contributing factor to why the yield of the overall portfolio decline.

Ebrahim Poonawala — Bank of America — Analyst

Noted. Thank you, both. Thanks for taking my questions.

Harris H. Simmons — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Sure, thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Ken Usdin with Jefferies. Please proceed with your question.

Ken Usdin — Jefferies — Analyst

Hey, good evening. How are you? Just coming back on the NII. So maybe, Paul, is it the right way to think about it? You gave the 100 basis points of parallel shift would be approximately $175 million of annual net interest income. So if you’re talking pre rates of moderately increasing NII do we think about that kind of core growth and then add if we were to get 200 basis points of rates this year, then we’d effectively get an annualized $350 million in next year. And then so for first quarter, we’d get about one-forth of that. I know that’s a lot of math, but just trying to use your sensitivity to kind of help us back into that zone that you’re kind of leading us to with core growth and then the sensitivity on top of it.

Paul E. Burdiss — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, I’m reluctant to apply too much precision to that. And the reason is that the way that our interest rate shocks are modeled, and this is true for all banks is that they’re sort of done in an environment where everything else is held constant. And the world, as you know, just doesn’t work that way. So there are many factors in this, I just mentioned loan spreads. That’s a factor deposit repricing, as you know, Ken, I mean that has an enormous impact on interest rate risk, although I don’t believe that, that is an adverse risk in this case, I think that given the excess liquidity in the system and particularly within our organization, it’s worth reiterating that our loan-to-deposit ratio is 62%.

I mean I don’t know — certainly, in my career, I don’t recall seeing a loan-to-deposit ratio for a large regional bank of our size being in that ballpark. So there is a lot of liquidity in the system. And I think as a result, we’ll be able to control deposit pricing looking ahead. So generally speaking, I hear what you’re saying and I — the timing of the rate increases and then the timing of the resets matter. Some resets happen in the middle of the month, some have been sort of early or late. And so it’s very hard to apply too much precision to the math. But I would just remind you that, that 100 basis point figure that I gave you that approximately $175 million, that is a full year impact for an immediate shock today.

Ken Usdin — Jefferies — Analyst

Right. So I’m saying but if we got eight hikes this year, right, but then by the end of the year, you’d have the benefits of those hikes playing through in ’23’s numbers. So I hear you might not be run rate. I guess let me just ask you one more just about the sensitivity then. So then what would be the biggest factor that you’d be sensitive to, like to worry about that would make a $175 million not play out? Like is there one that could like swing the most of the factors that you ran through? And thanks for the color, Paul.

Paul E. Burdiss — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, the largest factor in interest sensitivity is always deposits. So it’s deposit volumes and deposit pricing. But affirming your prior statement, yeah, you are correct, all of the things equal, that would be the impact of 2023.

Ken Usdin — Jefferies — Analyst

Okay. All right. Great. Thank you, Paul.

Paul E. Burdiss — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Thank you, Ken.

Operator

Our next question is from Jennifer Demba with Truist Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Jennifer Demba — Truist Securities — Analyst

Thank you. Good afternoon. Your asset quality has been so good for many quarters. Just wondering what loan buckets you feel are most vulnerable as rates go up at a fairly quick pace here?

Harris H. Simmons — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, Michael Morris will take a swing at him.

Michael Morris — Executive Vice President and Chief Credit Officer

Hi, Jennifer, thanks for the question. Any revolving debt is going to be fairly sensitive to interest rate hikes, debt coverage ratios matter in a big way. Consumer may be a little more precarious than the other industries, just because that’s totally tied to sort of labor costs and what the consumer can handle and it isn’t something that can be passed on easily. So our consumer book is something that we’re watching carefully around debt coverage ratio or debt-to-income levels.

And the other industries that were impacted by COVID, if they haven’t returned to sort of business as usual, they may be a little more susceptible to rate hikes. We’re watching the office portfolio very carefully. That’s one of the asset classes and CRE that’s probably going through the most change right now. Hospitality seems to be coming back slowly, but surely, RevPAR is up. You can see a lot of airport traffic. And so we’re seeing good signs on the hospitality portfolio. So office, consumer, a couple of other categories.

James R. Abbott — Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and External Communications

And Michael, this is James. Could you just speak to the underwriting that we do to anticipate rate hikes? I think that’s worth mentioning here.

Michael Morris — Executive Vice President and Chief Credit Officer

Well, we stress the underwriting on almost every loan product that we have. And we’re currently stressing any campaign product at its adjusted rate plus a premium. So there are a lot of — there’s quite a bit of cushion in our underwriting, and we think that will bode well in terms of LTVs as we go forward.

Jennifer Demba — Truist Securities — Analyst

Thanks so much.

Operator

Our next question is from John Pancari with Evercore ISI. Please proceed with your question.

John Pancari — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Good afternoon. Regarding the loan yield topic again, can you maybe just give us a little bit of color in terms of sizing up the impact from the ongoing promotional rate? And how much of the decline in loan yields of, what was it, 21 basis points or so was from that? And then also, do you happen to have the new money yields on new loan production to give us an idea of where you’re putting paper on today? Thanks.

Paul E. Burdiss — Chief Financial Officer

Well, I’ll start on the impact of the promotional campaigns. For the last two quarters, that has been about 5 or 6 basis points per quarter.

John Pancari — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Okay. Thanks. And do you have the new money loan yields?

James R. Abbott — Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and External Communications

Yeah. So John, this is James. The new money yield without any sort of fees, origination fees embedded in this. So this is just a coupon, it’s about 3.2%. So with the coupon — or with the origination fees, you’d probably add 10 to 20 basis points on top of that to get to the yield overall.

John Pancari — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Got it. Okay. Thank you. And then on the comp and benefits line, I know up about 11% linked quarter. I know you mentioned about, I guess, about $25 million in seasonal factors. As we model out the next quarter and the next several quarters, what’s a good jumping off point for the salary and benefits line item given that? Is it just adjusting for the $25 million and going from there?

Paul E. Burdiss — Chief Financial Officer

Well, we’ve tried to provide on Page 7. There are several items in there and of the slide deck that is you can kind of see where the seasonal things are, things like share-based comp and retirement plans, payroll taxes, those are all things that are very seasonal. So as you’re thinking about your sort of quote-unquote jumping off point, I would consider that disclosure. The other thing I’ll note is that there — as I have mentioned previously, I think the largest risk that we have on expenses remains competition for people. And so that’s salaries and benefits. And that’s all incorporated into our outlook. But I just note that as a risk factor.

John Pancari — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Okay. Thanks. And then if I could just ask one more. In terms of your deposit expectation for stable up balances. Can you just talk about what you’re seeing in terms of deposit flows that where you think you could be seeing some pressures, are you beginning to see more deposit outflow at your corporates has still burned through? Or is it more about competition that’s starting to become a greater factor before you actually see the impact in rates, what are you seeing now?

Scott J. McLean — President and Chief Operating Officer

Yeah. This is Scott McLean. And we’re seeing some outflows. We’re certainly not seeing the increases we were seeing. And so — but I think that — there just hasn’t been enough of a move in other short-term rates to really pull investors into interest other interest-bearing type of investments. And — so I just — generally speaking, this early in a rate increase cycle, you just don’t see that much real movement. And so I think that’s going to play out over the next three to four months. And as we see a couple of larger increases than there’ll certainly be a little more movement in those numbers.

Harris H. Simmons — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

Yeah, I — this is Harris. I think that to the first quarter is — I mean, there’s a lot of kind of seasonality or cyclicality in the first quarter, we typically see some runoff in the first quarter. What’s hard to gauge is, with the Fed kind of starting to bring the balance sheet a little bit, what that’s going to do across the industry. And so I — personally, I do think we’re kind of in uncharted waters. And they — we could see a little bit of an increase. But I think that we could see some decrease across the industry. I mean that would sort of logically make sense to me. But I don’t think it will be anything severe. And in some respects, would be a good thing just to get — start getting at the problem.

Scott J. McLean — President and Chief Operating Officer

I would just add also that Harris noted earlier and I did as well, that there is a pent-up demand to build inventory. And so some of this potential decline in deposits or downward pressure on deposits could simply be businesses moving cash into inventory, and that’s a healthy thing. So not necessarily interest rate-driven phenomenon. And so we’ll be watching that pretty closely.

John Pancari — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Okay. Thanks, Scott.

James R. Abbott — Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and External Communications

This is James. We’re — we have about 10 minutes left in the call and we have four people in queue at the moment. So we’re going to move into what we affectionally refer to as the lightening round. So we’ll ask people to just do one question, and then we’ll try to keep our answers quick and concise. Thanks.

Operator

Thank you. Our next question is from Peter Winter with Wedbush Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Peter Winter — Wedbush Securities — Analyst

Great. Thanks. I just wanted to follow-up on Ken’s question about the sensitivity of the 100 basis point increase equaling $175 million. If I compare that to last quarter, Paul, you mentioned that each 25 basis point rate hike equals $60 million in net interest income. Can you just talk about the change and maybe the outlook for asset sensitivity going forward if you’re going to dampen that.

Paul E. Burdiss — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. I think what you’re describing, which I had referenced in my prepared remarks is that our stated asset sensitivity has fallen by about 4 percentage points from last quarter to this quarter. There are a couple of things going into that. One, interestingly, is a larger baseline revenue. So we have been continuing to add investment securities over time. We added them in the fourth quarter and in the first quarter. And when you average sort of take into effect sort of the averaging effect of when they were put on and how that converts to run rate revenues. The revenues are actually up pretty substantially just in the last couple of quarters due to the investment portfolio.

So $1 change in net interest income as modeled actually has a smaller percentage change because revenues — run rate revenues are just higher. So that’s important. And then the other element and related element is that we — as we add to our investment portfolio. And as we think about and we actually add interest rate swaps either sort of current or forward starting, that also has an impact on asset sensitivity. So those are the two key changes quarter-over-quarter are a higher run rate in net interest income and then the addition of duration in the form of securities and swaps.

Peter Winter — Wedbush Securities — Analyst

Okay. Thanks, Paul.

Paul E. Burdiss — Chief Financial Officer

And then looking ahead, our interest sensitivity is — has been and will always be determined by changes in deposits really. And so looking ahead, changes in deposits, the pricing of deposits additions or runoff of deposits. Those will really be the key factors in my mind anyway, as we think about interest sensitivity.

Peter Winter — Wedbush Securities — Analyst

Got it. Thank you.

Paul E. Burdiss — Chief Financial Officer

Sure.

Operator

Our next question is from Brad Milsaps with Piper Sandler. Please proceed with your question.

Bradley Milsaps — Piper Sandler — Analyst

Hi, good evening. Thanks very much for taking my question. Paul, I was curious if you could maybe add a little more color on the pace of the final kind of remaining $7 billion or so of liquidity from here. And remind us how much cash flow is kind of coming off the bond portfolio, either monthly, quarterly, annually, however you kind of want to slice and dice it?

Paul E. Burdiss — Chief Financial Officer

So the first part of the question is when you talk about the $7 million has quoted about kind of the money market investments, the cash on the balance sheet?

Bradley Milsaps — Piper Sandler — Analyst

Yes, sir, yes.

Paul E. Burdiss — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah. Okay. Well, I’ll start with the second question first. So the — a couple of things to note about our investment portfolio. It is larger today. However, in our modeling, which I attempted to say in my remarks or on the slides, — our modeling indicates that, that portfolio is effectively fully extended. So the benefit of having mortgage-backed securities is that these are not bullet bonds, but amortizing securities that provide cash flow on an ongoing basis and the cash flow comes in the form of both principal — scheduled principal and prepayments and principal fans. Because that portfolio as model is largely extended, I think that the cash flow out of the portfolio looking ahead is somewhat predictable.

And currently, it’s running at about $1 billion a quarter, a little more than $1 billion a quarter. So over the course of the year, that’s a little over $4 billion of cash that we would either expect to use in our business in other places such as to fund loans or perhaps by additional investment securities. Incidentally, the — I’ve mentioned in the prepared remarks that the securities that we bought in the first quarter we’re about 40 basis points higher than in the fourth quarter. And while kind of past performance is no indication of future results, I would say that if we were to buy all of our bonds in the current quarter today, rates are about 100 basis points higher than they were in the first quarter. So a pretty significant move in rates and a lot of cash flow coming off of the portfolio is going to provide an opportunity for us to participate in rising rates.

As it relates to the $7 billion or so that’s on the balance sheet today, my expectation is as we see the pickup in loan growth continuing. I am hopeful that, that would be enough to absorb that excess liquidity. The rest of it would be either through managing deposits or managing the investment portfolio. My expectation currently is that I would not expect the investment portfolio to grow a lot from here over the next couple of quarters. Hopefully, that — a lot of words hopefully to answer your question.

Bradley Milsaps — Piper Sandler — Analyst

Yes. Thanks very much. I appreciate it.

Paul E. Burdiss — Chief Financial Officer

Yeah, thank you.

Operator

Our next question is from Gary Tenner with D.A. Davidson. Please proceed with your question.

Gary Tenner — D.A. Davidson — Analyst

Thanks. Good afternoon. Obviously, you guys aren’t the first nor we be the last to make changes to your and over direct programs. I just wonder if you could kind of comment on what your thought process was on making that decision now. whether it was just simply getting in the way of the kind of snowball coming downhill at you on that topic or any more overpressure from regulators?

Harris H. Simmons — Chairman and Chief Executive Officer

I’d say no more over pressure than you’ve seen in the media, but no inside baseball from regulators on that. I think it’s I encouraged our people. I said, look, this shouldn’t be driven by regulators. I don’t think it’s the province of regulators so long as what we’re doing is disclosed properly and it’s within the law. But I do think that we need to be thinking about it competitively. And I mean, certainly, the world has changed in terms of the technologies available of the customers and to us to manage these things. And so the competitive landscape has changed. So we’re trying to be responsive to that. It’s about that simple.

Gary Tenner — D.A. Davidson — Analyst

Okay, thank you.

Operator

Our final question is from Steve Moss with B. Riley Securities. Please proceed with your question.

Stephen Moss — B. Riley Securities — Analyst

Good afternoon. Maybe just with the five year treasury here close to 3%, kind of curious as to how you’re thinking about commercial real estate pricing these days if you’re going to move away from the promotional rates you guys have been working at. And then just also curious as to what your — how you’re thinking about risk here if cap rates shift higher?

Scott J. McLean — President and Chief Operating Officer

The first part of that question about promotional pricing on owner occupied loans, we’ve been — we haven’t really talked about it, but we have been raising our promotional rate as rates have gone up since the promotion started in June 1 of last year. And so we’ve kind of maintained the same spread versus the appropriate maturity swap. But we have been raising our rates consistently. And we will probably slow that promotional rate process down here in the second quarter because it’s just regular too volatile. So we’ve got a lot of pent-up demand. And so we’ll see that go through, but we’ll probably slow down the promotional rate program.

Stephen Moss — B. Riley Securities — Analyst

And then maybe just in terms of risk at just kind of curious as to how you guys think about with potential prior cap rates, how do think that loan value and structures.

Scott J. McLean — President and Chief Operating Officer

Well, it depends on the product type. But as you know, owner-occupied real estate, the underwriting is around the business first. There are always two repayment sources there. So that’s the primary focus. On investor real estate, we’ve seen pretty flat levels of requests, loan to cost, loan to values are within our traditional wheelhouse. We’re not really cutting back from an underwriting box standpoint. The way we underwrite, like I mentioned earlier, we are using stressed rates, interest rates to determine debt coverage ratios and all the asset classes in commercial real estate.

And we’re not seeing a huge appetite. We’re going to see a lot of conversion of construction to turn, which is only possible if there’s stabilization and strong NOI. We are seeing slight movement on cap rates going north, which is kind of a devaluation here and there. And those will probably move as rates go up. There’s always been a strong correlation between cap rates and interest rates. So — but we’re sensitizing around that and underwriting around that.

Stephen Moss — B. Riley Securities — Analyst

Okay. Thank you very much.

Operator

We have reached the end of the question-and-answer session. And I will now turn the call over to James Abbott for closing remarks.

James R. Abbott — Senior Vice President, Investor Relations and External Communications

Thank you, Kyle, and thank you to all of you for joining us today. If you have additional questions, please contact me at the e-mail or phone number listed on our website. We look forward to connecting with you throughout the coming months. And thank you again for your interest in Zions Bancorporation. This concludes our call.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]