Advance Auto Parts Inc (AAP) Q4 2021 Earnings Call Transcript

Advance Auto Parts Inc (NYSE:AAP) Q4 2021 Earnings Call dated Feb. 15, 2022.

Corporate Participants:

Elisabeth Eisleben — Senior Vice President, Communications, Investor Relations and Community Affairs

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Jeff Shepherd — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Analysts:

Chris Horvers — JP Morgan — Analyst

Michael Lasser — UBS — Analyst

Liz Suzuki — Bank of America — Analyst

Seth Basham — Wedbush — Analyst

Greg Melich — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Scot Ciccarelli — Truist Securities — Analyst

Simeon Gutman — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Michael Baker — D.A. Davidson — Analyst

Kate McShane — Goldman Sachs — Analyst

Zach Fadem — Wells Fargo — Analyst

Daniel Imbro — Stephens — Analyst

Brian Nagel — Oppenheimer — Analyst

Presentation:

Operator

Welcome to the Advance Auto Parts Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2021 Conference Call.

Before we begin Elisabeth Eisleben, Senior Vice President, Communications and Investor Relations will make a brief statement concerning forward-looking statements that will be discussed on this call.

Elisabeth Eisleben — Senior Vice President, Communications, Investor Relations and Community Affairs

Good morning and thank you for joining us to discuss our Q4 and full year 2021 results as well as our 2022 outlook that we highlighted in our earnings release yesterday.

I’m joined by Tom Greco, our President and Chief Executive Officer; and Jeff Shepherd, our Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer. Following their prepared remarks, we will turn our attention to answering your questions.

Before we begin, please be advised that our remarks today may contain forward-looking statements. All statements other than statements of historical fact are forward-looking statements, including but not limited to statements regarding our initiatives, plans, projections and future performance. Actual results could differ materially from those projected or implied by the forward-looking statements. Additional information about factors that could cause actual results to differ can be found under the caption Forward-Looking Statements and Risk Factors in our most recent Annual Report on Form 10-K and subsequent filings made with the Commission.

Now let me turn the call over to Tom Greco.

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks, Elisabeth and good morning. We delivered a strong fourth and final quarter in what resulted in a record-breaking 2021 for Advance Auto Parts. We closed the year with record top line sales, advanced our highest annual adjusted operating income margin expansion since our first year as a public company in 2002 and record adjusted diluted earnings per share. In addition, we returned over $1 billion in cash to our shareholders, through a combination of share repurchases and our quarterly cash dividend, which is also a record. Last April, we provided a strategic update focused on our long-term plans to deliver top quartile total shareholder return or TSR, and we delivered on this objective in 2021.

In discussing our Q4 and full year performance as well as our outlook for 2022, Jeff and I will reference the same core drivers of this TSR performance we outlined in that meeting. First, build an ownership culture. Second, grow faster than the market. Third, capitalize on our unique margin expansion opportunity. And fourth, return a substantial amount of cash to shareholders.

I’d like to begin by thanking the entire Advance team and Carquest independents for helping us build an ownership culture and delivering the strong results we are about to review. As we look back on the past two years of managing through a global pandemic, nothing has been more important to us than the health, safety and well-being of our team members and customers. The investments we’ve made enable us to keep infection rates at AAP below the national averages. In addition, we believe the consistency of our words and actions managing through COVID-19 enable us to build trust during a defining moment for companies. Improving organizational health has never been more important amidst the labor market where people have more choices than ever in terms of where, when and how they work.

We fundamentally believe then when we take care of our team members, they in turn will take care of our customers, resulting in strong shareholder returns. Our team members are critical to our customer value proposition. They build enduring relationships with customers. They work together as a team across markets to serve customers and throughout the pandemic they fulfilled surging demand for customers. They also navigated this challenging environment to welcome new customers, grow our business with existing customers and train new AAP team members. Meanwhile, because our team members are so vitally important to our long-term sustainable growth at Advance, we continue to invest in them and in our business, despite the pandemic. This includes investments in our differentiated Fuel the Frontline stock ownership program, IT infrastructure, supply chain, stores, independent partners and in leading digital capabilities to help our team better serve customers in the future.

In summary, we are incredibly proud and thankful for the progress our team members and the independent partners made throughout the past two years to strengthen and build an ownership culture here at Advance.

Shifting to our Q4 results. And as a reminder, we were lapping a 53rd week in the previous year. In our press release, you will find detailed summaries of our 2021 results compared with 2020 on a like-for-like 12 and 52-week basis. In our remarks today, we will be measuring our performance apples-to-apples. In other words, Q4 2021 will be compared to the relevant 12 weeks in 2020 and the 52 weeks of 2021 will be compared with the relevant 52 weeks in 2020.

In Q4 we are able to once again comp-to-comp, delivering comparable store sales growth of 8.2% or 12.9% on a two-year stack. Our adjusted operating margin rate expanded 96 basis points in the quarter. And adjusted earnings per share grew by 35.4% to $2.07. For the full year, we delivered double-digit comp sales growth of 10.7% and 13.1% on a two-year stack. Adjusted operating income margin rate of 9.6% was up 159 basis points resulting in adjusted EPS of $12.02, which increased nearly 48%.

Shifting to the second TSR driver we outlined last April, grow faster than the market, we’ve said many times that the key to this business is to ensure we have the right part in the right place at the right time, to deliver on the benefits of availability, care and speed. To build competitive advantage, we ask ourselves how do we leverage our diversified asset base. What can advance offer that sets us apart. In terms of availability, it’s about leveraging our industry leading assortment of national and OE brands. We are building powerful trusted own brands like DieHard and Carquest. When we talk about care, it’s about how we provide a superior and more personalized online in- store and in-garage experience for customers. In terms of speed, it’s about integrating digital and physical assets to serve our customers quickly through our Advance same date suite of services. Delivering speed now includes, opening new stores on the strength of an improved customer value proposition. We made progress in each of these areas in Q4 and our category sales growth was led by brakes, motor oil and filters. Regionally, our performance was once again led by the Southwest and West regions, which led our growth most of the year.

In terms of channels, professional led the way once again in Q4 with double-digit comp sales growth, with DIY omnichannel delivering mid single-digit comp growth. Throughout 2021, our professional customers continued to navigate significant COVID-19, labor and global supply chain challenges. As a result, our team stepped up to help them in a time of great need. This includes providing world-class training from our Carquest Technical Training Institute by delivering virtual courses in 2021 in an innovative format that provides technician a live interactive learning experience.

In terms of sales growth, our strategic accounts led the way in Q4. In addition we crossed 14,000 TechNets to close the year and improvements made in our MyAdvance digital platform led to the highest online B2B penetration rate ever. We expanded own brands with great customer acceptance, including a significant increase in distribution of DieHard batteries in pro-garages throughout North America. Our Carquest Independents also had a very strong year. In 2021 we welcomed a record 75 new independent locations and remain excited about the continued growth of this business. Our track record of growing sales and profitability for independents continues to attract new partners to the Carquest program.

Turning to DIY omnichannel. Our success was led by the strength of DieHard. Following the launch of DieHard in mid 2020, DieHard crossed $1 billion in annual sales in 2021. Through effective marketing and PR [Phonetic] we ensured that consumers knew that DieHard was back. Not only did they know DieHard was back, consumers recently rated DieHard as America’s most trusted battery brand. Behind the success of DieHard, we’ve demonstrated our ability to build brands. By strengthening the DieHard Advance and Carquest brands, we not only build customer loyalty, but we also build pricing power. In addition, we are beginning to increase DieHard product offering with DieHard power tools launched in Q4 and DieHard hand tools in the front half of 2022. We’re also focused on leading in product innovation. As an example, we were first to market with an enhanced flooded battery in 2021 which carries an attractive four year warranty.

And yesterday we announced the exciting news that DieHard has received formal certification from UL as the first automotive battery to achieve one of their distinguished validations. UL is a globally recognized non-profit organization dedicated to the advancement of a safer and environmentally sustainable future. DieHard AGM batteries are now the first and only global automotive battery to receive UL Validation within the circularity or closed loop or closed cycle space. This notable validation is the result of years of work between Advance and our strategic manufacturing partner Clarios. Our disciplined execution of battery core returns along with the proprietary manufacturing process allows for continual reuse of environmentally sensitive raw materials. Simply put, this means that new DieHard batteries come from recycling old DieHard batteries, which contributes to a circular economy and environmental sustainability.

DieHard is America’s most trusted auto battery and not only is it reliable, durable and powerful, but it also stands for innovation. While we’re pleased with our early success behind DieHard, we’re just getting started on building and strengthening this powerful brand.

We also made progress driving DIY loyalty through Speed Perks. We added new Speed Perks members throughout the year, finishing at 12.6 million while increasing loyalty and share of wallet with existing customers. To further strengthen loyalty, we recently announced a new benefit for Speed Perks members, Gas Rewards. Fuel savings has been a request of Speed Perks customers and we’re delivering. Partnering with Shell to help customers save at the pump while driving further brand loyalty and share of wallet.

Finally, our execution in stores continues to improve. And we remain focused on strengthening the customer experience and increasing net promoter score. Behind the strengthened customer value proposition, we opened 31 stores and eight Worldpac branches in 2021 as we began to ramp market expansion. This includes our first seven stores converted in California and after some disappointing delay due to COVID-19. As you saw in our release yesterday, we expect to open an additional 125 to 150 new stores and branches in 2022.

In terms of our third TSR driver, we believe our opportunity to further expand margins is unique within our space. Our Q4 operating income margin expansion was led by gross margin improvement, driven by category management. This incorporates strategic pricing, own brand expansion and strategic sourcing, culminating in a disciplined execution plan. Our strategic pricing capabilities have improved considerably following the implementation of the new technology platform in 2020. R&D tools enable us to eliminate unproductive discounts and react quickly to cost increases related to inflation. We incorporated Advanced Analytics, competitive intelligence, price elasticity and customer segmentation into our category plans. Increased own brand penetration also played a meaningful role in the quarter driving margin expansion. We transitioned tens of thousands of SKUs within undercar and engine management with our in-stocks improving throughout the quarter.

Separately, we continue to transform our enterprise-wide supply chain infrastructure. First we made further progress on integrating the assortment, supply chain and technology platforms within Worldpac and Autopart International during Q4. By year-end, we’ve consolidated 55% of AI locations on to the Worldpac tech stack, getting to a single supply chain and tech stack for our pure play professional business improves customer service, drives incremental sales and increases margins. We expect this transition to be completed by mid-year.

In terms of the integration of our Advance and Carquest supply chain, we completed the rollout of cross banner replenishment. Our entire Advance and Carquest network of stores are now serviced by our freight logical distribution center which reduced our annual miles driven from DC to store by approximately 14% in 2021.

Our next big step is to get to a single warehouse management system or WMS. As of December ’21, we transitioned 44% of our distribution center network as measured by unit volume to the new WMS. As we complete WMS in DC, we followed up with the implementation of our Labor Management System, which drives further savings through enhanced performance pay. The full run rate benefits of WMS and LMS remain on track to be realized by the end of 2023.

Finally, we continue to look for ways within our supply chain to optimize and modernize our network. We’re excited about the transition to our new San Bernardino and Toronto DC that we announced last quarter. Once fully operational, San Bernardino will be the central location for supplier shipments and help facilitate rapid store and e-commerce delivery in the Western United States. As we ramp the opening of this new DC, we recently announced to our team members, it will be consolidating operations from our much older Riverside BC to this new facility. Similarly, our Toronto DC enables the consolidation of two distribution centers. One Carquest and one Worldpac to a single and much larger facility. This will significantly improve our availability in the very large Ontario market.

Shifting to SG&A. We’re pleased to report that we exceeded our previously stated goal of $1.8 million in sales per store in 2021. As we move into 2022, we plan to build on this achievement behind continued improvement in sales per store along with the disciplined execution of profit per store productivity initiatives. This includes automating tasks in stores to enable more customer-facing time and leveraging technology that integrates internal driver availability with the gig economy. In addition to improving sales and profit per store, we completed our finance ERP integration. The health of our balance sheet has improved and we expect to realize the full run rate of savings in 2022. We’ll continue to build on this integrated platform to deliver further improvements in the customer experience and reduce cost.

Finally, we are building an enviable track record on team member safety. For the full year 2021, we saw a 10% reduction in our total recordable injury rate versus 2020 and our lost-time injury rate reduced by 20%. Our frequency rate on both metrics is now close to one-half of what it was five years ago.

In summary, Advance is a very different company than we were several years ago. We’ve strengthened our core customer value proposition, integrated many parts of the company, enhanced our diversified asset base and significantly improved execution. During 2021, we also conducted our first materiality assessment to sharpen our focus and prioritize our ESG agenda. We will share additional information about the results of this assessment in our upcoming Corporate Sustainability Report. While we are proud of our 2021 performance, we see plenty of runway in 2022 to further drive total shareholder return.

As you saw in our press release yesterday, we introduced our 2022 guidance. This contemplates the continuation of our top line growth and margin expansion initiatives as well as the following external tailwinds. An aging vehicle population with several million vehicles entering the sweet spot as availability of new cars continues to lag historical trends. An ongoing and gradual recovery in miles driven which has still not reached 2019 levels and the outperformance of our professional business compared to DIY for reasons we’ve discussed in the past. Our guide also takes into consideration certain factors that have changed since we initially share our three-year strategic plan. This includes the acceleration of broad-based inflation across the economy and the lapping of significant stimulus dollars, both of which could negatively impact our core customer.

Within our industry, inflationary pressures across commodities, wages and transportation. Overall, we’re very encouraged by the resiliency of our industry in 2021 and the momentum we’re building behind the disciplined execution of our strategic plan.

Jeff will now go deeper on our financials, provide an update on our fourth TSR driver, the substantial return of cash to shareholders and discuss our 2022 guidance. Jeff?

Jeff Shepherd — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Thanks, Tom, and good morning. I’d also like to thank our team members for their dedication this past year to care for our customers and each other and deliver record results. Before I review our financial results, I also wanted to remind you, 2020 included an additional week. To provide a better year-over-year comparison, the impact of this additional week has been excluded from our discussion of previous year. Please refer to our earnings release for the full impact of the additional week in 2020.

In Q4, our net sales of $2.4 billion increased 8.6% compared with Q4 of 2020. Adjusted gross profit margin expanded 145 basis points to 46.8% driven primarily by improvements in category management, led by strategic pricing, inventory related and own brand expansion. This was partially offset by ongoing inflationary costs, lapping shrink benefits in Q4 of 2020 and unfavorable channel mix. Same SKU inflation in Q4 2021 increased 5%. Additionally, despite today’s inflationary environment and global supply chain pressures, we’re pleased that we delivered slight supply chain leverage in Q4 and for the full year.

Our Q4 adjusted SG&A was $946 million, or 39.5% of net sales. This compares to 39% of net sales in Q4 of 2020. Like Q3, this was primarily driven by inflationary headwinds within labor as well as increased incentive compensation behind the record setting results our team delivered. As expected, incremental costs associated with the opening of our California stores ahead of planned revenue continue to be a headwind to SG&A in the quarter. These headwinds were partially offset by a year-over-year decrease in COVID-19 related expenses.

Our Q4 adjusted operating income was $177 million, an increase of 24.8% compared with Q4 2020. Our Q4 adjusted OI margin improved 96 basis points to 7.4%. Our adjusted diluted earnings per share of $2.07 increased 35.4% compared with Q4 2020. For the full year, our net sales were a record $11 billion and increased 10.6% compared with 2020. Our adjusted gross profit increased 14.9% and adjusted gross profit margin expanded 175 basis points. Adjusted SG&A expenses for the full year of 2021 increased 11% compared with 2020. On a rate basis, adjusted SG&A deleveraged 16 basis points to 36.4% of net sales. While we reduced our COVID-19 related expenses by $28 million in 2021, we continue to prioritize the health and safety of our team members and customers. Our full-year 2021 adjusted operating income increased 32.5% to $1.1 billion. On a rate basis, our adjusted OI margin expanded 159 basis points to 9.6%. In addition, we delivered record adjusted diluted earnings per share of $12.02.

Our 2021 capital expenditures were $290 million. Our free cash flow for the year increased $121 million or 17.2% year-over-year to $823 million driven by improved operating performance. As Tom mentioned, we completed our finance ERP implementation in 2021. We began to see some benefits in 2021, which partially contributed to the approximately 400 basis point improvement in our AT [Phonetic] ratio year-over-year. We expect to begin seeing the full run rate of savings this year.

To close out our discussion on our TSR drivers, we returned a record $1 billion in 2021 to our shareholders through a combination of share repurchases and a quarterly cash dividend. In line with our capital allocation priorities and confidence in the continued robust cash generation of our business, our Board recently approved a 50% increase to our quarterly cash dividend to $1.50 per share. This supports our stated objective of a 35% to 45% dividend payout ratio. In addition, our Board also approved an additional $1 billion authorization to our existing share repurchase program which at the end of 2021 was $545 million, more confident in our ability to generate meaningful cash flow and committed to a balanced return of excess cash to shareholders.

In consideration of the factors Tom discussed surrounding our 2022 outlook, our guidance includes net sales of $11.2 billion to $11.5 billion, comparable store sales of 1% to 3%, adjusted operating income margin of 10% to 10.2% and income tax rate of 24% to 26%, adjusted diluted earnings per share of $13.20 to $13.75, based on our outstanding share count as of yesterday. Capital expenditures of $300 million to $350 million, a minimum of $775 million of free cash flow, share repurchases of $500 million to $700 million and 125 to 150 new store and branch openings. We’re encouraged that through the first four weeks of ’22, our comp sales are running above the top end of our full year guidance. Finally our guidance for new store openings includes the California stores that were delayed last year, primarily due to permitting challenges resulting from the pandemic. This guidance includes new locations across all banners in both the US and Canada, but excludes independent locations. Once again, I’d like to thank our team members for their continued dedication we build on the momentum of our 2021 results.

With that, let’s open the phone lines to questions. Operator?

Questions and Answers:

Operator

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Chris Horvers from JP Morgan. Your line is open.

Chris Horvers — JP Morgan — Analyst

Thanks. Good morning everybody. Talking about your guidance, the 1% to 3% comp, that’s bracketing the low end of your 2% to 4% multi-year algo and you’re flowing through 50 basis points at the low end of that too I felt it would have been like, more like closer to 100 basis points. So is there something that’s changing in the environment, your competitor’s pricing commentary, is it conservatism, is it changing in terms of your ability to pass through inflation. Just wanted to get your thoughts on that.

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Hey, good morning, Chris. First, I’ll give you some color on the sales side and then Jeff can chime in a little bit on the margin piece. First of all, we’re continuing to target growth above the market in ’22. Our sales guide for the year reflects an estimated lower industry growth certainly in — versus 2021, we’re going to see less growth than we saw last year. As we said in our prepared remarks, on the one hand we see tailwinds for the industry. You’ve got an aging vehicle population with several million vehicles that’s in sweet spot. The new cars are very difficult to get. The availability lagged historical trends. And we do expect a gradual recovery in miles driven, which has still not reached 2019 levels. At the same time, we’re cognizant of potential headwinds for the industry. Following last year which was record breaking across the board, it’s difficult to predict what’s the ’22 growth rates going to be this early in the year. As you know, we’ve seen an acceleration of broad-based inflation at proxy economy which recently reached a 40 year high in the last week basically. So we’re also going to have less stimulus dollars in ’22 versus ’21. So I’ll flip it over to Jeff to talk a little bit about how that translates through the margin. Jeff?

Jeff Shepherd — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Yes, so just taking that, top line sales guide. In terms of our margin expansion, Chris, first of all, our margin expansion initiatives remain on track, but as we talked about in our prepared remarks the inflation that we’re seeing right now is substantially higher than when we develop that strategic plan. So at this early stage of the year, we’re mindful of the impact that this will have not only on the industry demand as Tom said, but also our cost base. So the cost within the P&L and the impact of inflation could have on all of those various line items in 2022. So right now, our plan is to execute our margin expansion initiatives in a disciplined manner. And then as we get further end of the year, we’ll have a better handle on the impact of the inflation on both industry, industry demand, our consumers as well as our cost base.

Chris Horvers — JP Morgan — Analyst

So then as a follow-up, as you think about that kind of 10.5% to 12.5% operating margin in 2023, is it — is your commentary inflation more saying, hey guys, more likely to be at the low end of that range or is your commentary more like, it’s just too early in the year, let’s not get ahead of ourselves given the uncertainty that lies ahead.

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, it’s really the latter. We remain confident in delivering the long-term targets we provided last April. We talked about what’s the ’22 guide background was. Long-term, industry fundamentals are attractive. We’re innovating and positioning AAP for long-term success and we still have a significant TSR opportunity for us. So it’s really the latter.

Chris Horvers — JP Morgan — Analyst

Thanks very much. Best of luck.

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Lasser from UBS. Your line is open.

Michael Lasser — UBS — Analyst

Good morning. Thanks a lot for taking my question. With two of your large competitors making price investments to gain market share in the commercial sector and you’re concentrating the hiring this peer set, how much do you need to invest in price above and beyond what you originally expected in order to sustain your market share?

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Hey, good morning, Michael. We’ve been talking about our category management initiatives for a couple of years now and strategic pricing along with increasing own brand penetration and strategic sourcing are key elements of this plan. So let me provide some color on how we’re thinking about our pricing strategy in the professional channel. Three things. First of all, we’ve been conducting a survey amongst our professional customers for many years. And just to give you a data point from last year’s survey, the top three variables were availability, ease of doing business and speed of delivery. They were all ranked ahead of price. At the same time we know competitive pricing is important and our strategy is rooted in how the pro customer makes decisions. We incorporate an extensive assessment of competitive pricing for each of the pro channels we compete in by category. And the reason we expanded our lower price point higher margin own brand portfolio was to provide more value-priced options for our customers.

Secondly, during our Investor Day, we highlighted our approach to meeting unique needs of different pro customers by leveraging our diversified go-to-market asset base. This includes the Advance stores, Carquest independents and Worldpac, which as you know is an entire [Technical Issues] part stores and we’re keenly aware of the competitive landscape within pro which is usually very different by category and in some cases even by [Indecipherable]. Finally, we’ve been investing and improving the customer experience through a single parts look-up, technical training and digital assets to improve speed and visibility of delivery. We also provide customized service models where relevant. So in summary, Mike, our comprehensive approach is tailored to the unique needs of what’s most important to each customer and our strategy is working. We grew double-digits within pro last year and we continue to believe our differentiated strategy will deliver profitable growth and margin expansion.

Michael Lasser — UBS — Analyst

Okay. And my follow-up question is on the inflation discussion. Jeff mentioned that part of the reason why you guided like you did for this year was because of cost inflation. Your SG&A dollars grew 9% in 2021, Advance had already been experiencing significant operating expense inflation and now you are suggesting a mindful of that continuing into 2022. Should we just see more than covered by price increases as the industry historically as typically price to a full margin, so why would you not be able to recover the cost increases now, whereas the industry has been able to do that in the past?

Jeff Shepherd — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Yes, sure. Well, I think, Michael, you’re right. The industry has been incredibly rational over periods of inflation and we have been able to cover cost inflation as it relates to maintaining gross margin rate. As we’ve talked in our prepared remarks, as I mentioned earlier, we’re seeing record inflation across the P&L. So it’s not just product cost inflation, it is not just commodities, just to give you a couple of data points, our two largest items on our cost base are product costs and wage inflation. And as we sit here and look at that today, we’re expecting those to both be in that mid single-digit range for 2022 on top of what we’ve already seen in ’21. Product cost is on a same SKU basis as you know, but that’s fairly significant. So right now we don’t have a model that says our pricing will cover inflation to cover the entire P&L., we’re confident that pricing along with our other category management initiatives will more than offset gross margin and then our SG&A initiatives will offset that inflation down in SG&A.

Michael Lasser — UBS — Analyst

Jeff, just to clarify, what does your model suggest that Advance will be a contribution from same SKU inflation in 2022?

Jeff Shepherd — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Mid single-digits.

Michael Lasser — UBS — Analyst

Okay. All right. Thank you very much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Liz Suzuki from Bank of America. Your line is open.

Liz Suzuki — Bank of America — Analyst

Great, thank you. Just a question on the DieHard brand. You’re expanding into new categories. What do you think is the ultimate total addressable market for DieHard? How many categories can you expand into and what percentage of your sales do you think that could represent?

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, first of all, we’re thrilled we crossed the $1 billion. I mean it’s not every day that you build a $1 billion brand in a single year. I mean as the brand had really language flares as you probably know and we’re getting new customers, we’re engaging younger consumers, we’re seeing really improved awareness amongst all demographics with DieHard and we’ve been gaining share within batteries at a terrific two years, and we’ve got a lot of runway yet. So how we look at DieHard is we — obviously it’s the core equity to bullseye if you will, is an automotive battery. But as you extend out into the concentric circles around it, there are ancillary categories where we can extend the brand and we talked about power tools and hand tools more to come there, but we believe the DieHard brand is one that we can build out and be a very strong differentiator for us. Our pro customers love the stocking program that we put in place for DieHard batteries. We’re continuing to build that out. So lots of room to run with DieHard and more to come on where else we can extend.

Liz Suzuki — Bank of America — Analyst

Great and just one quick follow-up on what percentage of your sales do you estimate are for break fix or general maintenance purposes versus more discretionary categories, and the reason I ask is, as we look at 2020 and 2021 and just the strength in DIY, a lot of which was people spending more time at home, people having stimulus dollars, but how much do you think that DIY strength was bolstered by discretionary categories like accessories?

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, first of all, there is no question when people have time on their hands, they were doing more with their cars than when they are at home, they basically couldn’t sit at home and watch their computer screen and Netflix all day, so we did see a surge there, but I can tell you the resiliency of what we saw at the height of the pandemic within DIY, right up until the fourth quarter has been very encouraging for us and we’re continuing to be pleased with our DIY omnichannel business and we’re going to continue to drive and grow that business. Obviously to your earlier question, DieHard plays a key role there. If we can drive people into our stores with a differentiated brands such as DieHard we can grow the DIY business. So for the first part of your question, we look at the customer journey as it pertains to DIY and they really do vary. I mean, my car wont start if the journey for batteries, my brakes are squeaking is the journey for brakes all have a various degrees of urgency. So we’re very focused on the specific drivers of choice within each one of those journeys and that’s how we build out our business.

Liz Suzuki — Bank of America — Analyst

Great, thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Seth Basham from Wedbush. Your line is open.

Seth Basham — Wedbush — Analyst

Thanks a lot, and good morning. My question is also on the in-place environment and the impact on potential demand destruction. Are you seeing any of that occur now and how have you built into your plan for 2022?

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Was it in terms of demand specifically Seth?

Seth Basham — Wedbush — Analyst

Yes, exactly.

Jeff Shepherd — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Yes, we haven’t seen it yet to be clear. I mean we are not seeing trade down. We’re not seeing deferred maintenance. It’s just a question of, we’ve got 10.5 months of the year left and the inflation is pretty significant across all categories, fuel prices, etc. That’s what we’re mindful of and as the year unfolds we’ll be in a better position to see the full impact of it, but it’s really a case of making sure that we’re looking at all potential outcomes for the industry for the year.

Seth Basham — Wedbush — Analyst

Understood. And what have you built into your comp sales plans for 2022 from that effect?

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, our guide is 2 at the midpoint.

Seth Basham — Wedbush — Analyst

Understood. But does that include some demand destruction assumptions for the balance of the year?

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

I’m sorry. Can you repeat that?

Seth Basham — Wedbush — Analyst

Does that include some pressure from demand destruction associated with the inflation that the core customer is experiencing for the balance of the year?

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. Yes, it does. I mean what we’re assuming coming off a year when the ACA would say, the industry grew high single-digits in 2021, right? I mean that’s the latest information we have from Auto Care Association. We’re assuming low single, even 1 to 2 for the industry overall. Now given all the tailwinds, that could be a very low estimate. We acknowledge that, but it’s just — it’s an unusual time. We’ve got an unprecedented level of inflation. We’ve got 10.5 months to go. So that’s really the thinking.

Seth Basham — Wedbush — Analyst

Understood. Thank you so much.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Greg Melich from Evercore ISI. Your line is open.

Greg Melich — Evercore ISI — Analyst

Thanks. I just want to make sure I got the guidance right. The mid single-digit inflation implies that that basically units would be down this year. And do you expect the Pro and DIY split to be similar to last year to narrow or widen?

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, good question, Greg. So obviously given the guide, we are assuming DIY transactions, which is well over half of our transactions. Obviously, the dollars per transaction is lower on DIY. We expect DIY transactions to be down, that is embedded in our guide. We do expect for growth in pro transactions. So overall positive growth on transactions and average ticket in pro. Transaction is down in DIY. We’re assuming some level of growth in DIY however and Pro outpacing DIY for the year really has been the case for the last couple of quarters.

Greg Melich — Evercore ISI — Analyst

All right. And then secondly, could you update us on where you are in the own brand strategy, you gave a $1 billion for DieHard when you add in Advance and Carquest. Are we 40%, 50% of the mix now?

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, what we’ve said in the past Greg, as we started out this journey in the high 30s in terms of our percentage of own brand penetration and we’ve moved that up nicely. We’re well into the 40s now, into the — in the most recent quarter into the higher 40s and we still believe we have room to grow there. So we’re very pleased with the strength of our own brand as we’ve said many times it carries in general a lower price per unit, certainly in the higher hard part segment and the national branded competitors, but the quality is very good. Our return rates are much lower than they’ve been in the past and our in-stocks improved on all of the categories in the fourth quarter. So pleased with the own brand penetration in relative to others, we still got opportunities there.

Greg Melich — Evercore ISI — Analyst

And then last, if we look at the guidance for the adjusted margin expansion, just over 10%. Is that — should that be equally between gross margin and SG&A leverage or how should we think about that margin expansion?

Jeff Shepherd — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Yes, we think we’re going to grow our margins in ’22 coming both in gross margin improvement as well as SG&A improvement. The gross margin improvement is going to benefit from the things we’ve been talking about, our category management as well as our supply chain initiatives. And SG&A is going to benefit from the strategic initiatives we outlined last April, which is to reduce SG&A costs and improve our sales and the profit per store.

Greg Melich — Evercore ISI — Analyst

That’s great. Good luck, guys.

Jeff Shepherd — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Thanks.

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Thanks Greg.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Scot Ciccarelli from Truist. Your line is open.

Scot Ciccarelli — Truist Securities — Analyst

Good morning, guys. Scot Ciccarelli. So, given the lower price points on your own brands. Can you quantify for us the impact of the headwind to both comp and gross profit dollars from that mix shift?

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, we don’t break that out Scot, but I mean, obviously varies by product and category. And absolutely has a lower price point. It is a comp sales headwind. If you sell an equivalent amount of units obviously our goal is to accelerate units, because as we said we’re providing a more value-priced option for our customers and that gives us a lower absolute price point for our professional customers and as we ramp it up the unit growth should offset that, but I can also tell you in many cases, the gross profit dollars are higher. So we’re very pleased with the own brand performance. It was a significant driver of our margin expansion in 2021 and it will be for the next couple of years.

Jeff Shepherd — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Okay. Just to remind sort of very significantly that the margin rate is significantly better on those categories.

Scot Ciccarelli — Truist Securities — Analyst

Yes, I guess I’ve been under the impression that the branded products still typically generate more gross profit dollars, which is, hence the question.

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, not necessarily.

Scot Ciccarelli — Truist Securities — Analyst

Got it, okay. And then switching gears for a second. The last time you guys enhanced your Speed Perks benefits, we had some pretty notable gross margin headwind with the new guest rewards, like — is there anything we should be wary of as people start to utilize that and what appears to be a very high gas price environment?

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, we’re going to get back on our front foot on Speed Perks, Scot, I mean, we did through the pandemic, just the level of demand that was coming into our stores was substantial and we wanted to make sure we took care of the customers and obviously having conversations with our customers about a loyalty program takes time and we subjugated that. There is no financial consequences at all for Gas Rewards. We’ve engineered it in such a way that it will be a real positive. Candidly for us, we think it drives share of wallet in a time of rising gas prices, I was just out in California, it’s almost $6 a gallon. You’ve got a situation where consumers are going to be really mindful of what their paying at the pump and we’re enthusiastic about how our team is engaged with this Gas Rewards program. We’re going to be working it really hard in the stores, finding up new members and graduating members. So this will be a nice little boost for us on DIY in 2022.

Scot Ciccarelli — Truist Securities — Analyst

Got it. Thanks a lot guys.

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Simeon Gutman from Morgan Stanley. Your line is open.

Simeon Gutman — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Hey, good morning everyone. You mentioned that you achieved supply chain leverage this quarter. Can you talk about the puts and the takes. I think I’m sure some of your initiatives are helping it and versus labor and transport, which would have been a headwind. So can you maybe tell us I guess what the headwind was that we can quantify how good your doing underlying with?

Jeff Shepherd — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Yes. If we were just to strip out the inflation, we’d be talking about the supply chain tailwind being a much more meaningful number. Said another way, Simeon, our initiatives in supply chain are on track. I think we talked about this in the third quarter, but we completed the cross banner replenishment. We’re on track with our WMS and LMS to be done by 2023 and those are providing the benefits we had anticipated. Just once you factor in the inflation although we did leverage, it was just small because of the inflation and the labor inflation has been acute specifically in that supply chain kind of warehouse employee the battle for that talent is just intense and then you also see it in the areas that you pointed out, transportation fuel, what have you. Those are all built in there as well.

Simeon Gutman — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Thanks. And then Tom you clarified the industry is expected to grow this year, do you have a range or sense you can tell us. And then, I expect you take — do you expect to take market share this year?

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Absolutely. We do expect to take market share. We have modeled a low number Simeon as we explained earlier for overall industry growth to make sure [Technical Issues] and we don’t get surprised by something as the year unfolds given the unprecedented levels of inflation, but what we showed back in April was for as an estimate for ’22, ’23 was 2% to 4% if you recall and we believe it’s going to be at the lower end of that for all the reasons we explained. If that is somewhat — ends up being something different and the industry proves to be as resilient as it’s been in the past 2009-2011 most notably where it was performing extremely well in a recessionary time, that’ll be good news.

Simeon Gutman — Morgan Stanley — Analyst

Okay, thank you. Good luck.

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Michael Baker from D.A. Davidson. Your line is open.

Michael Baker — D.A. Davidson — Analyst

Hi, thanks guys. Couple of follow-ups. One, well, first of all, let me ask about the hiring and the labor situation has — is that as bad as it was, is it getting worse, is it getting any better now that some employment benefits have rolled off and any sort of insight in terms of that pressure point?

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes, good question, Michael. I mean, we are really happy that we’re starting to go the other way in both the distribution centers and in the stores we measure turnover very, very closely. The stores did not jump up as much, I mean, our unique stock ownership program where we’ve invested over $60 million in our frontline team members over the past couple of years, that’s helped us there. We’ve been able to retain our General Managers, our commercial parts pros, etc. And then in the supply chain in the DC, we — it peaked really around the third quarter of last year in the summer and started to come back down. It’s still not back to where it was pre-pandemic. I can tell you that in the DCs, but we are coming back down. And as you said the applicant pool is starting to open up. People have fewer options and where we’ve obviously had to invest in compensation in our supply chain, but that’s — much of that is behind us at this stage. And we’ve got plans this year to see that turnover continue to come down in both the stores and in the DCs.

Michael Baker — D.A. Davidson — Analyst

Okay, thanks. That’s good news. Also wanted to follow-up on the pricing question and really to Mike Lasser’s question earlier, the way I interpret your comments is, some of your competitors including O’Reilly last week had a pretty — I thought a pretty interesting announcement. You’re saying no change in your strategy. You’re happy with where your pricing is, because you compete with the private label that sort of, you know, is your answer to them in AutoZone reducing price. Is that the right way to think about it?

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Absolutely. We are incredibly focused on the Pro customer and the competitive environment within the Pro customer. We look at it every week. We look at our price comparison across the market. I’m sure our peers do the very same thing. So we’re very familiar with the broader competitive landscape. I mean the wholesale distributors, the specialty players and there are a big factor in large urban markets. Worldpac has competed with them for 20 years plus. So we know that there are pure-plays out there that have lower prices on very specific products and we organize our enterprise pricing strategy around that. So no change in our pricing strategy going forward.

Michael Baker — D.A. Davidson — Analyst

One more quick one, if I could. Is — can you talk about the private label penetration within the Pro business versus the DIY business. I know in the past, maybe, Pro didn’t like private label as much, but it sounds like DieHard is being well accepted by the Pro customer. Can you sort of flesh that out a little bit?

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. I mean with DieHard and Carquest. I mean Carquest is a powerful brand in the professional sales channel. Carquest brakes is a leader in the professional channel. They are high quality. Our customers request them and as we extend Michael into engine management, undercar some of these other categories Carquest is being very well received. So, in part because it doesn’t have a brand name on the front door of a retail stores. So that’s part of the reason why, but it’s equally powerful there. If you’ve got a high quality own brand product that carries — that’s good value for our customer, and you can get it to them quickly, they’re going to be very supportive, but just to reinforce, national brands play a key role in our portfolio also and we’re partnering very closely with our national brand suppliers to make sure that we’re lifting up their brands at the same time.

Michael Baker — D.A. Davidson — Analyst

Makes perfect sense. Thank you for the color.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Kathleen Brenneck from Goldman Sachs. Your line is open.

Kate McShane — Goldman Sachs — Analyst

Hi it’s actually Kate McShane from Goldman Sachs. I just wondered if we could just go back to your comment on the quarter-to-date running above the 3% or the high end of your full-year guidance. Can you talk a little bit about what’s the primary driver for outperformance and what kind of comp we’re facing quarter-to-date versus last year.

Jeff Shepherd — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Sure. Good morning, Kate. Well, first of all, it’s always interesting the way the big seasons kind of straddle quarters, right. The spring selling season straddles Q1 and Q2. The middle of the winter straddles Q4 and Q1. We have a very large presence in the Northeast. I think obviously you know that. It was a pretty mild December in the Northeast it got cold in the first period of the year. So that that’s swings business out of the fourth quarter and into the first quarter for us. The West was really cold in December. We had very strong growth in the West and the Southwest in December, not so much in the Northeast. So, I mean what we’ve seen so far we’re very pleased, we like the fact that we’ve had a pretty harsh winter so far across the country that should be good for us in the second quarter also. We’ve had a lot of snow. We love those big heavy machines tearing up the roads up in New York and Detroit and up in those markets where we’re in. So hopefully that creates a strong tailwind for us in the second quarter. So it really is — there has been favorable weather in the first quarter and as you talked about the compares, we’re starting to look at three-year stacks obviously. I mean the two-year stack will become officially relevant by the second quarter, right. So we’ll start to look at three-year stack and the three-year stack looks good on a year-to-date basis.

Kate McShane — Goldman Sachs — Analyst

Thank you.

Jeff Shepherd — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Thank you.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Zach Fadem from Wells Fargo. Your line is open.

Zach Fadem — Wells Fargo — Analyst

Hey, good morning, Tom, do you think elasticity in the industry has changed at all for the do-it-for-me customer and given the importance of service and availability, why do you think peers are having or seeing success lowering price? And to what extent do you even view pricing a needle mover when you go head to head with peers in WDs?

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, I mean, as we said earlier, Zach, there are other variables that are more important to our Pro customers, and I speak to them all the time, whether it’s the CEOs of the company or in the garage themselves and when you have the part and you’re able to get it to the customer quickly that’s by far the most important variable. Now there are certain categories where the time to repair is longer. There are pure play operators in markets who specialize in something like AC as an example, radiators. When you have those types of jobs, price becomes more of a factor and we’re very aware of that, those are not new dynamics. Those dynamics have listed for a long time and we obviously compete in that environment. So it’s really a question of — in our case, we’re focused on what’s important to the customer in improving our fundamental value proposition and we’re going to drive top line growth, but it’s also vitally important for us to ensure that that growth is profitable. And that results in big earnings growth and we put up 48% earnings per share growth last year. We want that to translate into cash generation that we can return that money back to our shareholders. So our focus is to make sure that we are driving profitable growth and that’s what you’re going to see us do. The competitive environment is clearly something we pay attention to, but we’re very thoughtful about how we approach it.

Zach Fadem — Wells Fargo — Analyst

Got it. And for Jeff. What are you assuming for LIFO this year and as we bridge the gap from your big picture 2022 outlook to your 2023 margin guide of 10.5% to 12.5%. Do you still expect equal parts expansion in both ’22 and ’23 in each year or should we contemplate a step-up in ’23 as we move past some of the ’22 headwinds like inflation?

Jeff Shepherd — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Yes. So starting with the LIFO question. We certainly think it’s going to be of sizable this year. Early estimate could be, I think we finished the year — this year at $122 million. We’re estimating 20 — I’m sorry, last year $122 million. This year, as much as a $100 million. What’s important to know on that is the LIFO costs that we experienced last year are beginning to manifest themselves in the P&L this year. So we’re starting to see that and that’s already built into our model for ’22. As we move into ’23, we know some of that will move into that year. But having said that, we’re very confident in our margin expansion initiatives and we think we can continue to grow both in gross margin and in SG&A in ’23 as we get into that 10.5% to 12.5%.

Zach Fadem — Wells Fargo — Analyst

Got that. Thanks for the time today.

Jeff Shepherd — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Thanks.

Operator

Your next question comes from the line of Daniel Imbro from Stephens. Your line is open.

Daniel Imbro — Stephens — Analyst

Yes. Hey, good morning guys. I wanted to follow-up on private label store rate. Tom, I think you mentioned in your prepared remarks that the undercar categories improved through the quarter, but where are those fill rate maybe relative to your desired level? And if there are any, where are the bottlenecks today in the supply chain as you move more of the category kind of in-house in the way from other brands?

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Sure. Well, first of all, our fill rates overall, I mean, we still have pockets of difficulty there Daniel, disclosure whether that’s a result of the suppliers’ inability to get people in to work whether that’s related to the global supply chain, which is still not back to where it once was. In terms of the transition, the own brand, it’s improved materially from where it was last summer. We’re still I would say a couple of hundred basis points off where we want to be. But we’re much better off than we were last summer. And that’s — it was almost 40,000 SKUs. It was a huge undertaking but we’re thrilled that we’ve got the change over of those SKUs largely behind us and we see lots of upside going forward as a result of it.

Daniel Imbro — Stephens — Analyst

Got it. That’s helpful and then I do want to follow-up on Zach’s question, LIFO benefit, so I can be clear Jeff. You saw $122 million benefit in ’21. And I think you said you’re guiding to $100 million of a LIFO benefit in ’22. Your prices plateau and ’23 does that create gross margin headwind and it seems like just numbers wise that would be sizable. So can you walk through the puts and takes or are you guys thinking pricing doesn’t plateau. Just trying to understand how if we have that big of accumulated LIFO benefit, how or when that unwinds in P&L and weighs on gross margin?

Jeff Shepherd — Executive Vice President, Chief Financial Officer

Yes so, first of all, it’s unwinding now. We’re already starting to see it. We’re going to see it throughout ’22 and that’s embedded in the model or the guidance that we’re providing yesterday. So we return about 1.35 times a year that translates into about 10 months rough math tells you that’s when it starts to come back to you on the P&L. So again, we plan that for ’22. We were going to be planning that as we move into ’23 if everything else were to remain completely static you’re right. In absolute terms, it would be a headwind and that’s something we’re contemplating and that’s why we’re really excited we have the margin expansion initiatives that we have because we’re confident we can overcome that.

Daniel Imbro — Stephens — Analyst

Got it. Thanks so much for the color and best of luck.

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. And Daniel, I just wanted to clarify one thing. On undercar we’re pretty close to our in-stock on engine management, that’s the one that I was referencing. And I think you asked undercar. So just to clarify, we’re pretty much where we want to be on undercar.

Daniel Imbro — Stephens — Analyst

Thanks Tom.

Operator

And your final question comes from the line of Brian Nagel from Oppenheimer. Your line is open.

Brian Nagel — Oppenheimer — Analyst

Hi, good morning. Thanks for slipping me in here. So I know there’s already been a couple of question. A few questions maybe on the whole pricing dynamics. So I apologize, but the question I want to ask is, Tom from your vantage point, recognizing you’re very close to your commercial customers and you’re watching competition, are you seeing some of the lesser-known competitors maybe in the [Indecipherable] actually move price at this point or maybe not take price a mid broader based inflation. Is there some change in dynamic there within that cohort?

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

You know what, we really haven’t. And I think that from our vantage point, they operate very rationally right, I mean these are many cases private companies, they don’t have retail store. They are in warehouse that doesn’t pay the same rent. They don’t have some of the cost base within SG&A that you have with traditional retail parts for, I mean it’s just that simple. So their prices tend to be lower. Their gross margins tend to be lower and their SG&A tends to be lower. So they operate in a very rational basis. They price typically below what the retail parts companies do and that’s why Worldpac and our diversified asset base helps us, because we already have that arrow in our quiver and Worldpac is expanded parts significantly over the past several years and we are very thoughtful about how we price in accordance with that. We’re growing the Worldpac business substantially. It’s integrating with Autopart International and we’re growing margins at Worldpac. So it’s a very good story for us in that regard and we obviously want to maintain our competitiveness, but we’ve got some things in our tool bag that helps us there.

Brian Nagel — Oppenheimer — Analyst

Got it. That’s very helpful. Then my follow-up question, I guess, with respect to demand. Clearly you ended the year very strong given your commentary. This seems like — the persist here into the new year. As the economy potentially once again begin to pull away from the COVID crisis, are you seeing greater variability market-to-market depending on where each market is relative to the pandemic?

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, that’s a good question. I mean, we’re definitely — I’ll use miles driven, okay as the proxy here. And we just need everybody to do what Microsoft did in the last 24 hours as everybody go back to their offices, I’m joking obviously, but the reality is the number of people going back to offices in particular in large urban markets is still below where we want. And if you look at the miles driven, it has recovered in parts of the country, almost to 2019 levels. If you look at the Southwest or the Southeast, you’ve seen that miles driven recover. The Northeast is still almost 10% below where it was two years ago. If you look through the tail end of last year on the miles driven. Now, it’s coming up, but it’s still below. So I think you will continue to see that miles driven improve. The information we have says it’s down still versus ’19. We expect that to continue to improve.

Brian Nagel — Oppenheimer — Analyst

Okay, very helpful. Thank you.

Operator

There are no further questions at this time, Mr. Tom Greco, I turn the call back over to you for some closing remarks.

Tom Greco — President and Chief Executive Officer

Well, thanks for joining us this morning and as you’ve heard throughout the call, we remain confident in the strategic plan we’re executing and in our ability to deliver top quartile total shareholder return through the four TSR drivers we discussed today. We plan to build on our 2021 results and leverage strong industry fundamentals and continue to strengthen our customer value proposition, deliver against our margin expansion initiatives and return substantial cash back to our shareholders. We remain committed to the execution of our strategic initiatives while driving innovation to position Advance for long-term profitable growth. And we look forward to sharing more of our progress throughout the year.

Operator

[Operator Closing Remarks]