Rising copper demand in focus as Freeport-McMoRan heads into Q4 report

Mining giant Freeport-McMoRan Inc. (NYSE: FCX) enters the new fiscal year against the backdrop of an evolving metals market, marked by shifting global supply dynamics. As one of the leading copper producers, the company manages lingering cost pressures with a focus on operational discipline, even as it advances initiatives aimed at sustaining long-term growth. Freeport-McMoRan’s strong production footprint and heavy investments in infrastructure and technology position it to leverage the rising copper demand.

Q4 Report on Tap

The Phoenix-headquartered company has scheduled its fourth-quarter FY25 earnings release for Thursday, January 22, at 8:00 am ET. On average, analysts following the business predict adjusted earnings of $0.32 per share for Q4, representing a modest increase from $0.31 per share reported in the year-ago quarter. Meanwhile, December-quarter sales are expected to decline 4.3% year-over-year to $5.48 billion. Earnings have beaten estimates consecutively in the trailing nine quarters.

Earlier this week, Freeport-McMoRan’s stock set a new record – crossing the $60-mark for the first time – after maintaining a steady uptrend in recent months. However, the momentum faded in the following sessions, and the stock traded lower in the early hours of Friday. In 2025, FCX outperformed the S&P 500, after gaining by more than one-third during the year. The positive investor sentiment reflects the high demand for copper, the company’s primary product, and rising prices.

Q3 Results

In the third quarter of FY25, revenues increased to $6.97 billion from $6.79 billion in the corresponding quarter of FY24. The top-line exceeded expectations, marking the third beat in a row. Net income rose to $674 million or $0.46 per share in Q3 from $526 million or $0.36 per share in the prior year. On an adjusted basis, Q3 earnings increased to $0.50 per share from $0.38 per share in Q3 2024.

From Freeport-McMoRan’s Q3 2025 earnings call:

“We’re expecting significant growth in 2027 as operations are restored (at the disaster-hit Grasberg mine), and we expect further increases in 2028, which will drive significant cash flow. At copper prices approximating $5 per pound, you can see our cash flows. EBITDA would approach $12 billion in 2026 and would have meaningful growth to over $15.5 billion on average for 2027 and 2028. Operating cash flows in 2026 during this transition period would approximate $8 billion, growing to $11.5 billion on average in 2027 and 2028. These amounts exclude potential recovery under our property and business interruption insurance coverage.“

Outlook

As per the management’s most recent guidance, it targets to produce 635 million pounds of copper, 60 thousand ounces of gold, and 21 million pounds of molybdenum in the fourth quarter. Being a leading copper producer, Freeport-McMoRan stands to benefit from the growing demand for copper, which is used in diverse areas ranging from data centers to transportation. The US business has benefited from recent tariffs on copper as it created a price premium for the company’s domestically produced copper, which is mostly sold in the local market.

The average price of Freeport-McMoRan’s stock for the past 52 weeks is $41.51. The shares have gained an impressive 33% in the past six months. It was trading at $58.5 on Friday afternoon, down 2.3%.