What to expect when Delta Airlines (DAL) reports Q4 2023 earnings

Shares of Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) rose 3% on Monday. The stock has gained over 18% in the past three months. The airline is slated to report its fourth quarter 2023 earnings results on Friday, January 12, before markets open. Here’s a look at what to expect from the earnings report:

Revenue

Delta has guided for total revenue in the fourth quarter of 2023 to increase 9-12% from the same period last year. Analysts are projecting revenue of $13.54 billion for Q4. This compares to operating revenue of $13.43 billion reported in the year-ago quarter. In the third quarter of 2023, Delta reported operating revenue of $15.5 billion.

Earnings

Delta has guided for EPS of $1.05-1.30 for Q4 2023. Analysts are predicting EPS of $1.16 for the quarter. This compares to adjusted EPS of $1.48 reported in Q4 2022. In Q3 2023, adjusted EPS was $2.03.

Points to note

On its last quarterly conference call, Delta mentioned that demand for travel remained strong, with steady domestic demand and growing international demand. Leisure travel remains strong while business travel continues to improve. As per a corporate survey undertaken by the airline at the time, the majority of companies expected their travel volumes to grow or remain the same sequentially in the December quarter.    

Delta expects total unit revenue (TRASM) to decrease 2.5-4.5% in the fourth quarter while capacity is expected to be up 14-15%. It expects domestic and Transatlantic trends to remain consistent with the third quarter, and Pacific and Latin America unit revenue trends to modestly decelerate.

The company expects non-fuel unit costs to be flat to up 2% year-over-year in Q4. December fuel prices are expected to range between $2.90-3.20 per gallon. Delta expects operating margin in Q4 to range between 9-11%.